LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, North and West said: What’s ACE? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane2003/August/background_information.html Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index by the way on a related topic, mets in the west pac have been talking about modifying the SS scale to add a Cat 6 for super typhoons of 192 mph or higher. that reminds me of way back when in the original tornado Fujita scale there was an F6 category for tornadoes from 320 mph to the speed of sound (640 mph). it was dropped because no tornado ever reached F6, but for super typhoons in the west pac, there are a few that have reached 192 mph or higher (and in the east pac too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 What are we thinking in regard to a storm for next Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 17 Author Share Posted February 17 Started a thread at 5A/17. All yours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 17 hours ago, Brian5671 said: ^^^ off the charts warm! Should be an active hurricane season so the exact tracks will be important with so much SST rocket fuel heading into the season and a developing La Niña. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 33 about 7.5 inches of snow on 0.47 LE. Dry out next 5 days till the next threat Thu - Sat later in the week and into next weekend. warmup overall close of the month and into the first week of next month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (2022) NYC: 68 (2022) LGA: 66 (1976) Lows: EWR: 0 (1979) NYC: -5 (1896) LGA: 1 (1979) Historical: 1894: According to Grazulis, an estimated F2 tornado hits 5 miles south of Warren, Arkansas. An older woman was killed in one of the small homes that were destroyed. In addition, fruit trees were ripped out and carried a half-mile. Another tornado, estimated F3, killed two people in Claiborne County, Louisiana. 1926: A deadly avalanche, Utah's worst, demolishes 14 miner's cottages and a three-story boarding house in Bingham Canyon. Thirty-six were killed and 13 injured. 1930 - Eureka, CA, reported an all-time record high of 85 degrees, a record which lasted until September of 1983. (The Weather Channel) 1936 - The temperature at McIntosh SD plunged to 58 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum) 1958 - The greatest snowstorm of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in interior New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches at Washington D.C., and 15.5 inches at Baltimore MD. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States. (David Ludlum) 1958: From the 14th through the 17th, one of the most significant snowstorms of the mid 20th century struck the northeastern U.S. The storm produced 30 inches of snow in the interior of New England, including more than 19 inches in 24 hours at the Boston Airport. The same storm produced up to three feet of snow in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, with 14 inches in Washington D.C. and 15.5 inches in Baltimore, Maryland. The storm resulted in 43 deaths and 500 million dollars damage over the Middle Atlantic Coast States. 1973: Snow showers moved across southeast Texas, with most locations only reporting snow flurries. However, the Houston Intercontinental Airport measured 1.4 inches of snow. 1987 - A couple of winter storms, one off the Atlantic coast and another over the south central U.S., produced snow and ice from the Mississippi Valley to the Mid Atlantic Coast Region. Freezing rain produced a coat of ice three inches thick in northern South Carolina, and 30,000 homes around Pee Dee were left without electricity. Parts of south central Kentucky were without electricity for three days following the storm, which was their worst in 35 years. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Santa Ana winds in southern California gusted to 63 mph at Ontario. Heavy snow blanketed parts of Colorado, with 11 inches reported at Strontia. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Low pressure off the Washington coast produced more than a foot of snow in the Cascade Mountains, and more than three inches of rain along the Northern Pacific Coast. Spokane WA was blanketed with 13 inches of snow. Cold arctic air in the Upper Midwest produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.10 inches at Duluth MN, 31.09 inches at Minneapolis MN, and 31.21 inches at Bismarck ND. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - The biggest winter storm of the season hit the Pacific Coast Region. In northern California, snow fell along the coast, and two day totals in the mountains ranged up to 67 inches at Echo Summit. Snowfall totals in the mountains of southern California ranged up to 48 inches at Green Valley, with 46 inches reported at Big Bear. Up to two feet of snow blanketed the southern Cascade Mountains of Oregon, and 20 to 35 inches were reported in the northern Cascades of Oregon. Up to ten inches of snow blanketed Seattle WA. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Still looks like we have until the 26th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 This is the one to watch. Temps will be marginal. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Ok. Can we pull off one more? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 FWIW the GEPS had a much less hostile pattern at the end than the GEFS/EPS did so we'll see if something could still happen in mid March perhaps....I would still expect even if we have a hostile pattern 2/27 to 3/10 it could flip again 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Both good patterns produced. Both January and February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 At 16” for the season this winter moves from an F to a C-, assuming that B is an average season and we are halfway to average. If we get another advisory level snowfall we can bump this up to a C+ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, psv88 said: At 16” for the season this winter moves from an F to a C-, assuming that B is an average season and we are halfway to average. If we get another advisory level snowfall we can bump this up to a C+ We’ve been spoiled with years of blizzards. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: We’ve been spoiled with years of blizzards. It’s also been very warm. Lowest temperature is like 12. Pretty bad. No Arctic outbreaks. Harbors never got any ice on them. No prolonged cold. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: At 16” for the season this winter moves from an F to a C-, assuming that B is an average season and we are halfway to average. If we get another advisory level snowfall we can bump this up to a C+ This death band did save the season from being one of the worst but it was still a pitiful winter. Well above normal temperatures (top 5 warmest) and a couple snow events won't change that. D+ right now Unless we get a KU storm I don't see it ranking better than a C- 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Yeah NYC Is at a D so far. Only 1/3rd of seasonal snowfall as the best snow bands continue to miss us in all these events. F winter until today. Maybe we can make it up to C category ? (That would be 20”, similar to 2022 winter). B winter would be average (27-30” inches, won’t happen this season but that’s what a B would be) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This death band did save the season from being one of the worst but it was still a pitiful winter. Well above normal temperatures (top 5 warmest) and a couple snow events won't change that. D+ right now Unless we get a KU storm I don't see it ranking better than a C- Still at a D. I do not track temps just snowfall. Another 4.5 to get me to 20 would bring it up to a C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Just now, Krs4Lfe said: Yeah NYC Is at a D so far. Only 1/3rd of seasonal snowfall as the best snow bands continue to miss us in all these events. F winter until today. Maybe we can make it up to C category ? (That would be 20”, similar to 2022 winter). B winter would be average (27-30” inches, won’t happen this season but that’s what a B would be) Crazy how CPK stayed out of the heavy stuff on both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 A bit too far east / late this run.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: A bit too far east / late this run.. That’s where we want it right now lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 50 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: A bit too far east / late this run.. The setup next week is God awful 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The setup next week is God awful Where are you at with snowfall on the season dude? I just broke 10 inches, but could’ve easily had a bit more if not for poor luck. I think you’re in Rockland was it? You must’ve cleaned up in the Tuesday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: FWIW the GEPS had a much less hostile pattern at the end than the GEFS/EPS did so we'll see if something could still happen in mid March perhaps....I would still expect even if we have a hostile pattern 2/27 to 3/10 it could flip again Past strong/super El Niños did get less hostile after mid-March. Early-mid March strongly favors a hostile, warmer than normal pattern though, looking back at history. Problem is that post mid-March, minus some very anomalous event, you are really fighting spring climo, sun angle and length of day and it gets worse with each passing day at that point. The clock will really be ticking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said: Where are you at with snowfall on the season dude? I just broke 10 inches, but could’ve easily had a bit more if not for poor luck. I think you’re in Rockland was it? You must’ve cleaned up in the Tuesday storm. I got around 8 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: This death band did save the season from being one of the worst but it was still a pitiful winter. Well above normal temperatures (top 5 warmest) and a couple snow events won't change that. D+ right now Unless we get a KU storm I don't see it ranking better than a C- For me snow is the most important thing, so even if it's a warm winter it's an ok winter as long as we get average snowfall. Almost up to 20 inches for the winter here, so we're actually about normal snowfall right now. That's enough for me to bump it up to a C, but the grade will go back down a little if we don't get any more snow the rest of the winter. Remember we did have that period in January where we had the 2 light snow events in a week and snow stayed on the ground all week because it was so cold. So we had a very good week in January and now a great week in February. Not bad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 45 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The setup next week is God awful At least you got this storm right 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 hours ago, psv88 said: It’s also been very warm. Lowest temperature is like 12. Pretty bad. No Arctic outbreaks. Harbors never got any ice on them. No prolonged cold. This is the first time on record that ISP hasn’t dropped below 17° by February 17th. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Feb 17 Missing Count 1 2024-02-17 17 1 2 2002-02-17 15 0 - 1998-02-17 15 0 3 2021-02-17 13 0 - 2020-02-17 13 0 4 2010-02-17 12 0 - 2006-02-17 12 0 5 2012-02-17 10 0 - 2008-02-17 10 0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Didn’t think I’d pass 10” this season, total now 10.7” after today’s 2.0”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Would need to be explosive/high rates to overcome temps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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