Snowstorms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Most strong Ninos feature the raging E Pac vortex which was largely absent this winter I believe that WPAC warm pool may have contributed towards that as @bluewave mentions every so often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Snowstorms said: I believe that WPAC warm pool may have contributed towards that as @bluewave mentions every so often. I have to check the 72-73 anomalies at 500 which was more of a -PDO Nino. But I think it resembled as PSU said in the MA forum the classic pattern that used to work for us and even the SRN US but no longer does with the -AO/NAO and -PNA but you did not have the stupid ridging in the SE we always see now in that pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Cmc has a coastal signal 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Cmc has a coastal signalCan you be more specific? For when? TIA!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Don. It will be interesting for CPK, if the clipper can come just close enough, they will be extremely close to 10 with a little more than a month to go. Pattern is hostile after the 26 however there seems to be one more threat before it arrives. In addition, today's guidance is a bit more aggressive with the clipper. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 22 minutes ago, North and West said: Can you be more specific? For when? TIA! . End of the month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 End of the month . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I have to check the 72-73 anomalies at 500 which was more of a -PDO Nino. But I think it resembled as PSU said in the MA forum the classic pattern that used to work for us and even the SRN US but no longer does with the -AO/NAO and -PNA but you did not have the stupid ridging in the SE we always see now in that pattern I agree. Perhaps the +AMO is playing a role in driving the SE ridge? The AMO has been positive since the mid 90's and could definitely be enhancing the SE ridge with the warmer Atlantic. Both the PDO/AMO were negative from the late 50s till the late 70's which led to many cold/snowy winters. Although the 80's and early 90's weren't particularly snowy, they featured a lot of cold winters which may have been driven by the -AMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Good afternoon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 13 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: I agree. Perhaps the +AMO is playing a role in driving the SE ridge? The AMO has been positive since the mid 90's and could definitely be enhancing the SE ridge with the warmer Atlantic. Both the PDO/AMO were negative from the late 50s till the late 70's which led to many cold/snowy winters. Although the 80's and early 90's weren't particularly snowy, they featured a lot of cold winters which may have been driven by the -AMO. A few years back I felt we'd see a flip to a -AMO soon, not so sure now but it should occur in next few years as its been 28-29 years now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 22 hours ago, MJO812 said: Models will change so much but that's the next favorable threat. Long range modeling have been awful Long range modeling has been running too cold . So if it shows marginal temps near the coast than you have to take note of that. The last event was initially modeled too cold a week out by several models. We ended up losing half the total precipitation to melting and low ratios from around NYC out along the coast. But the areas just inland from the coast have much more leeway being closer to the cold. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, bluewave said: Long range modeling has been running too cold . So if it shows marginal temps near the coast than you have to take note of that. The last event was initially modeled too cold a week out by several models. We would up losing half the total precipitation to melting and low ratios from around NYC out along the coast. But the areas just inland from the coast has much more leeway being closer to the cold. We need a phasing system. Euro did trick. This timeframe was on the table by many people. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: We need a phasing system. Euro did trick. This timeframe was on the table by many people. Sure. The models did a good job identifying the period leading up to and just after Presidents’ Day for frozen precip potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 16 Author Share Posted February 16 Won't start a thread til sometime tomorrow, pending all 3 global ensembles still I84 or coastal snow event (DC-BOS) around 2/23. Plenty of uncertainty and for now want a couple cycles similar and continued ever more digging so that we have a pretty substantial neg tilt 5H trough here. D5 ish would be the big model shift that would deflate our potential wintry weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 hours ago, Snowstorms said: I believe that WPAC warm pool may have contributed towards that as @bluewave mentions every so often. Yeah, it was a combination of the El Niño forcing interacting with the MJO forcing from the IO to WPAC. This combination resulted in a much stronger El Niño ridge than usual in Canada. Plus we didn’t get the deeper trough in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic typical for El Niños. The tendency for the Nino ridge to build into the Northeast continues the pattern of higher 500 mb winter heights in the Northeast since 15-16. This has resulted in the first 9 consecutive warmer to record warm winters in a row around the Northeast. I think the record Atlantic SSTs are probably also factoring into the ridging and record warmth into the Northeast. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 ^^^ off the charts warm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 ^^^ off the charts warm!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: ^^^ off the charts warm! Ballistic hurricane season upcoming. May start off slow with the lingering nino effects, but peak season could produce record ACE. Lots of tracking coming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Ballistic hurricane season upcoming. May start off slow with the lingering nino effects, but peak season could produce record ACE. Lots of tracking coming. If we’re heading into a Nina later this year, we want a high ACE summer for the following winter. Has a strong correlation to a good/snowy winter here. Hopefully we get lots of long track storms to rack up the ACE that recurve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 A cooler pattern remains in place. This will not be an especially cold pattern, but it will be noticeably colder than the pattern that defined the first 10 days of the month. A fast-moving clipper system will bring a light to moderate snowfall to parts of the region late tonight into tomorrow ahead of another shot of cooler but not severely cold air. There will likely be general area of 2"-4" snowfall from New York City southward to Washington, DC. Within that area, a stripe of 3"-6" snowfall is possible, particularly in such cities as Baltimore, Philadelphia, and Wilmington. White Plains north and westward will likely see 1"-3" with amounts quickly falling off toward I-84. Snowfall ratios will generally be in the 12:1 to 15:1 range leading to a fluffier snow than during recent events. By next week, milder weather will likely begin to overspread the region. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around February 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.62°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -3.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.531 today. On February 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.990 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.826 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.8° (2.9° above normal). Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 39.9°-40.5°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. The probability that Winter 2023-2024 will have a mean temperature of 40.0° or above has increased in recent days. Should Winter 2023-2024 finish with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above, that would be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with such warmth. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 Records Highs: EWR: 74 (1954) NYC: 71 (1954) LGA: 69 (2023) Lows: EWR: 0 (1943) NYC: 1 (1888) LGA: 2 (1943) Historical: 1898: A series of wildfires swept through South Carolina on February 16-17, 1898. Unconfirmed reports indicate that 14 people were killed, numerous homes and sawmills burned, and up to 3,000,000 acres of forest land were charred from Aiken County, S.C. to Chatham County, N.C., and east to Marlboro County, S.C. There were probably a dozen wildfires raging at the same time driven by a 40 mph wind. 1899 - Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1903 - The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum) 1903: Pokegama Dam, Minnesota saw three straight days with low temperatures 50° below zero or colder, including 59° below zero on the 15th. The minus 59° established a state record for the lowest measured temperature in Minnesota. Pokegama Dam held the record until February 2nd, 1996 when the temperature fell to 60° below zero at Tower. 1943 - Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43 degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record, yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1943: Record cold prevailed in the northeastern United States. The mercury plunged to 37°F below zero at Concord, New Hampshire, and to -39 degrees at Portland, Maine. The morning low of -32°F at Falls Village, Connecticut, established a state record. The Connecticut record low was tied on January 22nd, 1961, when Coventry fell to -32°F. 1987 - A winter storm produced snow and ice in the Ohio Valley and the Appalachian Region. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 14 inches around Farmville, while Granville NC reported eight inches of sleet and ice. Freezing rain in eastern North Carolina caused extensive damage to power lines. Gales lashed the coast of Virginia and North Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Santa Ana winds in southern California gusted to 50 mph in the Rancho Cucamonga area. Quiet weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A surge of arctic air produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.08 inches at Duluth MN, 30.97 inches at Chicago IL and 30.94 inches at South Bend IN. Readings of 31.00 inches at Milwaukee WI and 30.98 inches at Rockford IL tied their all-time records. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southeastern U.S. Highs of 81 degrees at Athens GA, 87 degrees at Charleston SC, 85 degrees at Macon GA, and 86 degrees at Savannah GA were records for February. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Strong thunderstorms developing ahead of an arctic cold front produced severe weather across the southeastern U.S. between mid morning on the 15th and early evening on the 16th. Thunderstorms spawned thirteen tornadoes, including one which, prior to dawn on the 16th, injured eleven persons near Carrollton GA. There were also 121 reports of large hail or damaging winds. A late afternoon thunderstorm on the 15th produced baseball size hail at Jackson MS, and prior to dawn on the 16th, a thunderstorm produced high winds which injured four persons at Goodwater AL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: In addition, today's guidance is a bit more aggressive with the clipper. it's hard to be excited about clippers, you can never rely on them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Records Highs: EWR: 74 (1954) NYC: 71 (1954) LGA: 69 (2023) Lows: EWR: 0 (1943) NYC: 1 (1888) LGA: 2 (1943) Historical: 1898: A series of wildfires swept through South Carolina on February 16-17, 1898. Unconfirmed reports indicate that 14 people were killed, numerous homes and sawmills burned, and up to 3,000,000 acres of forest land were charred from Aiken County, S.C. to Chatham County, N.C., and east to Marlboro County, S.C. There were probably a dozen wildfires raging at the same time driven by a 40 mph wind. 1899 - Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1903 - The temperature at Pokegama Dam MN plunged to 59 degrees below zero to establish a state record. (David Ludlum) 1903: Pokegama Dam, Minnesota saw three straight days with low temperatures 50° below zero or colder, including 59° below zero on the 15th. The minus 59° established a state record for the lowest measured temperature in Minnesota. Pokegama Dam held the record until February 2nd, 1996 when the temperature fell to 60° below zero at Tower. 1943 - Record cold prevailed in the northeastern U.S. The mercury plunged to 43 degrees below zero at Concord NH, and to -39 degrees at Portland ME. The morning low of -32 degrees at Falls Village CT established a state record, yet the afternoon high that day was 20 degrees above zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel) 1943: Record cold prevailed in the northeastern United States. The mercury plunged to 37°F below zero at Concord, New Hampshire, and to -39 degrees at Portland, Maine. The morning low of -32°F at Falls Village, Connecticut, established a state record. The Connecticut record low was tied on January 22nd, 1961, when Coventry fell to -32°F. 1987 - A winter storm produced snow and ice in the Ohio Valley and the Appalachian Region. Snowfall totals in Virginia ranged up to 14 inches around Farmville, while Granville NC reported eight inches of sleet and ice. Freezing rain in eastern North Carolina caused extensive damage to power lines. Gales lashed the coast of Virginia and North Carolina. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Santa Ana winds in southern California gusted to 50 mph in the Rancho Cucamonga area. Quiet weather prevailed across the rest of the nation. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A surge of arctic air produced all-time record high barometric pressure readings of 31.08 inches at Duluth MN, 30.97 inches at Chicago IL and 30.94 inches at South Bend IN. Readings of 31.00 inches at Milwaukee WI and 30.98 inches at Rockford IL tied their all-time records. Unseasonably warm weather prevailed across the southeastern U.S. Highs of 81 degrees at Athens GA, 87 degrees at Charleston SC, 85 degrees at Macon GA, and 86 degrees at Savannah GA were records for February. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Strong thunderstorms developing ahead of an arctic cold front produced severe weather across the southeastern U.S. between mid morning on the 15th and early evening on the 16th. Thunderstorms spawned thirteen tornadoes, including one which, prior to dawn on the 16th, injured eleven persons near Carrollton GA. There were also 121 reports of large hail or damaging winds. A late afternoon thunderstorm on the 15th produced baseball size hail at Jackson MS, and prior to dawn on the 16th, a thunderstorm produced high winds which injured four persons at Goodwater AL. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) wow sounds like January 1996 1899 - Washington D.C. received 1.26 inches of rain in six hours atop a snow cover more than 30 inches deep making it the soggiest day of record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: If we’re heading into a Nina later this year, we want a high ACE summer for the following winter. Has a strong correlation to a good/snowy winter here. Hopefully we get lots of long track storms to rack up the ACE that recurve. yes we love la ninas after el ninos for this, hopefully high ACE but would love for the storms to stay offshore like they did in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: A few years back I felt we'd see a flip to a -AMO soon, not so sure now but it should occur in next few years as its been 28-29 years now will these warmer SST lead to an extended +AMO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 7 hours ago, Snowstorms said: I agree. Perhaps the +AMO is playing a role in driving the SE ridge? The AMO has been positive since the mid 90's and could definitely be enhancing the SE ridge with the warmer Atlantic. Both the PDO/AMO were negative from the late 50s till the late 70's which led to many cold/snowy winters. Although the 80's and early 90's weren't particularly snowy, they featured a lot of cold winters which may have been driven by the -AMO. the AMO warm phase can become extended with warmer SST, we dont know if the AMO behaves the same way now as it did 50 years ago. or if a negative AMO would have the same effect it did back then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 yes we love la ninas after el ninos for this, hopefully high ACE but would love for the storms to stay offshore like they did in 1995.What’s ACE?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17 Share Posted February 17 2 minutes ago, North and West said: What’s ACE? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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