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February 2024


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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I thought we had like one inch in April?

But in the middle of March it was amazingly warm (mid to upper 80s with sunshine!)

 

3/6/1990

Islip 4.2"

Patchogue 6.0"

Riverhead 4.5"

LaGuardia 4.4"

Central Park 3.1"

JFK 1.9"

 

4/7/90

Bridgehampton 3.0"

Patchogue 3.0"

Islip 3.0"

Westbury 2.6"

LaGuardia 0.9"

Central Park 0.6"

JFK 0.5"

 

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14 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

The area of pecip moving across PA looks pretty juiced up is it supposed to dry up once it reaches our area??

Should drop at least an inch in the poconos then start to break apart. Wouldn’t be surprised if within 20 miles nw of the city sees a coating. In the city temps are too marginal unless it really comes down.

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3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

@brooklynwx99Your thoughts about the pattern over the next few weeks? How did we lose this pattern so fast?

most of it was the storm earlier this week not cutting, so we missed the main wave break that set everything in motion. the Scandinavian ridging also crapped out. really bad luck on both fronts, and it's probably the most complete failure on medium to long range modeling I have seen in quite some time. a shame

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Its interesting to note that while the weeklies and almost all model guidance has pulled the rug on any sort of wintry weather/ cold temps by around March 1st or so, there appears to be some sort of return to western ridging and eastern trough around mid March. Of course, that is 1 month away, and we would have to endure a Pac jet extension and flareup of the SE ridge. There are too many problems between end of February and mid-March, but at the very least, I suppose it would prevent March from being totally a spring month. 

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

most of it was the storm earlier this week not cutting, so we missed the main wave break that set everything in motion. the Scandinavian ridging also crapped out. really bad luck on both fronts, and it's probably the most complete failure on medium to long range modeling I have seen in quite some time. a shame

Ouch. You tend to be one of the most optimistic on this board. I guess we'll have the next 10 days or so to try to squeeze something in. A flareup of the SE ridge is how we become very warm here (early Jan 2023, mid Jan 2020, Feb 2018, Feb 2017, Dec 2014). That would really be the icing on the cake if that happens in early March. 

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56 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Its interesting to note that while the weeklies and almost all model guidance has pulled the rug on any sort of wintry weather/ cold temps by around March 1st or so, there appears to be some sort of return to western ridging and eastern trough around mid March. Of course, that is 1 month away, and we would have to endure a Pac jet extension and flareup of the SE ridge. There are too many problems between end of February and mid-March, but at the very least, I suppose it would prevent March from being totally a spring month. 

that's why most long range guidance should be taken with a grain of salt good or bad its subject to wild changes...

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52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that's why most long range guidance should be taken with a grain of salt good or bad its subject to wild changes...

The long range guidance has been running too cold. Probably related to the models underestimating the forcing in the warmer tropical marine zones for us. That’s why I have been pointing out the warmer risks to the long range forecasts. All that record +30°C SST warmth from the IO to west of the Dateline keeps winning out. Convection flares up in a warm MJO phase followed by a big jet extension and warmer temperatures for us. This has been the main temperature theme for us during the winter since the December 2015 +13 departure. It happens whether we are in El Niño, La Niña, or ENSO neutral. So this has been the first time we had 9 warmer to record warm winters a row.

9B4BACD0-68ED-4F5D-9F3F-50D6C47D5B5E.jpeg.a19f3b0efde6be9042704fc1d31ce412.jpeg

 

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A cooler pattern is now in place. This will not be an especially cold pattern, but it will be noticeably colder than the pattern that defined the first 10 days of the month.

A few snow showers are possible during the first half of tonight. Some areas could pick up a dusting outside of the City. Afterward, tomorrow will be fair and seasonably cold.

Another system could bring a light snowfall to parts of the late Friday night into Saturday ahead of another shot of cooler but not severely cold air. There will likely be an area of 2"-4" snowfall from central New Jersey southward to Baltimore with some locally higher amounts. New York City could see 1"-2" with perhaps some 3" amounts across Staten Island, southern Queens and southern Brooklyn.

By next week, milder weather will likely begin to overspread the region. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around February 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.62°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -8.55 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.376 today.

On February 13 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.826 (RMM). The February 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.859 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.5° (2.6° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 39.8°-40.5°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. The probability that Winter 2023-2024 will have a mean temperature of 40.0° or above has increased in recent days. Should Winter 2023-2024 finish with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above, that would be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with such warmth.

 

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3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

most of it was the storm earlier this week not cutting, so we missed the main wave break that set everything in motion. the Scandinavian ridging also crapped out. really bad luck on both fronts, and it's probably the most complete failure on medium to long range modeling I have seen in quite some time. a shame

I think you were great. More often than not things do not work out on the snow front in this part of the country outside of 2000/2018. We will get em next year!

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Should drop at least an inch in the poconos then start to break apart. Wouldn’t be surprised if within 20 miles nw of the city sees a coating. In the city temps are too marginal unless it really comes down.

for whatever reason these clippers usually track too far to the north to give us any meaningful precip

 

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No March thread yet... but adding here since I dee March winter or nn winter possibilities being discussed.

March is about good good timing. Looks possibly wetter than normal an∂ once we rid ourselves of excessive early March warmth?, then maybe one ore wet mow for NYC?

the 2/15 CPC march outlook update is attached.

 

btw..CPC proabilities continues slight chc heavy snow here near 2/24.

 

Screen Shot 2024-02-15 at 9.09.54 PM.png

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