Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Way too early to say that with a definite answer. Can always squeeze out a nighttime event in between periods of warmth 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We done after Saturday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 17 this morning. Crazy how snow cover affects the weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: 17 this morning. Crazy how snow cover affects the weather. and who knows how different the winter would have been with more sustained snowcover to our north as well as more ice cover on the great lakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Got down to 19 degrees here last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: and who knows how different the winter would have been with more sustained snowcover to our north as well as more ice cover on the great lakes. Big part of the reason cold was lacking this year.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 22 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We done after Saturday Yep. This one is following the strong Nino climo of warmth early-mid March warmup 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. This one is following the strong Nino climo of warmth early-mid March warmup Just have to hope we don't get late March/early April onshore flow garbage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Big part of the reason cold was lacking this year.... It's probably why mild winters tend to stay mild even when the pattern becomes "better" later in the season. You usually need that December snow and cold to make sure it comes back after any thaw later in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Can always squeeze out a nighttime event in between periods of warmth Yeah wavelengths shorten and bowling ball systems can occur, however overall pattern sub par. At least DC and Baltimore have a legit shot at average annual snowfall with the next statem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. This one is following the strong Nino climo of warmth early-mid March warmup Do you think it will at least be warm and sunny like March 1990? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Do you think it will at least be warm and sunny like March 1990? That month had snow (clipper that stalled and gave us 3") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: That month had snow (clipper that stalled and gave us 3") I thought we had like one inch in April? But in the middle of March it was amazingly warm (mid to upper 80s with sunshine!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Just now, LibertyBell said: I thought we had like one inch in April? But in the middle of March it was amazingly warm (mid to upper 80s with sunshine!) yeah april was minor. May have been more significant to the south with of course the major mid month warmth that wasn't expected. I believe my forecast was 72 and we hit 85 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It's probably why mild winters tend to stay mild even when the pattern becomes "better" later in the season. You usually need that December snow and cold to make sure it comes back after any thaw later in the winter. Definitely a big takeaway...mild/snowless winters don't usually turn cold/snowy. (exceptions like 06-07 do exist) So had to be skeptical of calls of a big pattern from mid Feb to mid March-in reality it will be a window of about 10-12 days like the one in January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 11 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: The AMOC shutting down abruptly would wildly disrupt monsoon cycles and lead to major agricultural failure. Whatever the actual acute temperature impacts on North America (lesser) and Europe (greater), it would be a catastrophe for many other reasons. There was a concerning paper last year stating collapse could occur between 2025 and 2090 which is considerably sped up from timelines running on older data. Doesn’t mean they’re inherently correct, but it’s concerning (IMHO). Yeah sooner rather than later is happening: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Definitely a big takeaway...mild/snowless winters don't usually turn cold/snowy. (exceptions like 06-07 do exist) So had to be skeptical of calls of a big pattern from mid Feb to mid March-in reality it will be a window of about 10-12 days like the one in January. Yeah, cold and snow cover, makes more cold and snow cover. Kind of how snow ball earth was a runaway feedback cycle to cold. You have record low snow cover over our cold air source region. That’s going to increase solar absorption. We are lucky we even made it to double digits snowfall wise. This could easily have been 97/98 up in till now (.5” cpk) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2015-2016 was the real outlier. All the rest of the Decembers with under 1” of snow since 1950 had below average seasonal snow in NYC. This season is continuing that pattern. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2011-2012 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.5 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2023-2024 T T 2.3 3.2 M M 5.5 2022-2023 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2018-2019 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2015-2016 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2001-2002 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 1999-2000 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1997-1998 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1994-1995 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8 1972-1973 T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1971-1972 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1965-1966 0.0 T 11.6 9.8 T 0.0 21.4 1953-1954 2.2 T 12.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 15.8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: 2015-2016 was the real outlier. All the rest of the Decembers with under 1” of snow since 1950 had below average seasonal snow in NYC. This season is continuing that pattern. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2011-2012 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.5 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2023-2024 T T 2.3 3.2 M M 5.5 2022-2023 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2018-2019 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2015-2016 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2001-2002 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 1999-2000 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1997-1998 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1994-1995 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8 1972-1973 T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8 1971-1972 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9 1965-1966 0.0 T 11.6 9.8 T 0.0 21.4 1953-1954 2.2 T 12.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 15.8 Did we have snow December of 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Yep. This one is following the strong Nino climo of warmth early-mid March warmup Ultimately ensembles did okay...we got the window 2/12-2/25 we thought we'd get and we might see 3 snow events out of it in the end if something latter next week works out.. the rule this winter was no pattern held for more than 10-14 days really and I expect the same happens again...the pattern 3/10-3/30 probably won't look anything like the one from 2/26-3/10 will. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Did we have snow December of 2014? Yes, NYC picked up 1” in December 2014. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: so this weekend's storm is probably the last snowstorm of the winter? Considering that there is no background cold or high pressure confluence in southeast Canada to prevent systems from cutting, I would argue yes. And every passing day, the average temperature becomes warmer and it’s harder to snow. With no cold air in the mix and minimal snowpack, it becomes even harder. What’s worse is that high latitude blocking has all but disappeared from guidance, indicating a very warm March coming. I think it’s safe to say this is it for the season. Sometimes the easiest path is the right path, and for this winter, persistence forecasting was key. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We done after Saturday Eh, no one really knows. (See this past week)The only thing that changes are probabilities. I’ve seen enough nice, early springs interrupted by nonsense. (April 1990 snow, March 1998 and 1999 snow, etc.)Sure, it’s unlikely, but you never know.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Yeah sooner rather than later is happening:https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189Oh cool. We’ll handle it well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: and who knows how different the winter would have been with more sustained snowcover to our north as well as more ice cover on the great lakes. Historic low for Great Lakes ice in mid-February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, North and West said: Eh, no one really knows. (See this past week) The only thing that changes are probabilities. I’ve seen enough nice, early springs interrupted by nonsense. (April 1990 snow, March 1998 and 1999 snow, etc.) Sure, it’s unlikely, but you never know. . I'm glad I'm not the only one who remembers these lol. I think we had a 2 incher in April 2000 also, people tend to forget these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 We also had an event in April 2006 that is mostly remembered for adding the 0.1 that NYC needed to get to 40.0 on the season. What they don't remember is how heavy the snow was and down here on the south shore, it added up to about 2 inches of snow in 2 hours in the middle of the day. From Brooklyn on east the snowfall rates with this storm were more impressive here than what we got with the so-called February 2006 "HECS" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 hours ago, psv88 said: 13” on the season here. If I get to 15” I’ll consider it a success. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Admittedly, getting at least three 2 inch events in this winter with snow cover lasting for a week on two different occasions would raise this winter to a C-. We can't expect 30 inches every winter, or even 20 inches unfortunately. If there was only one event in this winter of 2-4 inches it would still be a failure. But getting possibly three such events makes it tolerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Big part of the reason cold was lacking this year.... Snow cover is important, but I think the effect of lake water temperatures or lake ice on the temperatures in downstate NY is less than some here seem to think. If you live on the south shore of Lake Erie, then it is significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now