North and West Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I wouldn't call anyone in this forum a "climate specialist" they are all just giving their guesses. Here's a fact though-- we've hit +1.5C of warming over the last 12 months and faster than we thought we would. Can't argue with facts. Let's see where we go from here. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion; they’re not entitled to their own facts. Interesting story published today:https://www.wsj.com/science/environment/geoengineering-projects-cool-planet-weather-f0619bf7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 fwiw. Todays CP below normal temps broke a string of 22 consecutive days above normal. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 fwiw. Todays CP below normal temps broke a string of 22 consecutive days above normal. It was chilly out there today. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, North and West said: Everyone is entitled to their own opinion; they’re not entitled to their own facts. Interesting story published today:https://www.wsj.com/science/environment/geoengineering-projects-cool-planet-weather-f0619bf7 . Yeah, this is exactly what we talked about awhile back--- geoengineering is being talked about much more often than anyone thought it would be just a decade ago. The only real fact we can say right now is the +1.5C of warming over the past 12 months, we don't know if it was a temporary blip because of the volcano, el nino, or some combo of the two (plus the solar max we're now hitting) and if it's going to get worse right away or plateau for a bit. About 40% of the warming we've seen has no explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Just now, North and West said: It was chilly out there today. . I love these spells of winter. Noting that it helps hold the snow cover out here. Continues beautiful. Was driving a patient in an ambulance at 5A over High Point - somewhat slippery roads in flurries, blowing snow and gusty Winds 3gusting 0 MPH. So different (relative calm in Newton-Sussex) once you get in the valleys and you dont realize how rough it can be. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, North and West said: It was chilly out there today. . The high winds really sucked. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Here's another tease: CPC 2/22-24. I didn't post the wind risk they had also. Keep an open mind on what might happen in here before the big warmup transition. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, wdrag said: I love these spells of winter. Noting that it helps hold the snow cover out here. Continues beautiful. Was driving a patient in an ambulance at 5A over High Point - somewhat slippery roads in flurries, blowing snow and gusty Winds 3gusting 0 MPH. So different (relative calm in Newton-Sussex) once you get in the valleys and you dont realize how rough it can be. The sunny, cold weather is wonderful, however we can do without these winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, bluewave said: You can quote my whole post from above if you like. But I don’t want to get misquoted in one of our other regional forums. You received lots of respect in the New England forum, and a great discussion ensued. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Stats for Central Park NYC Feb 1899 Date __ max ___ min _____ Prec ___ Snow _ 01 ___ 21 _____ 12 _______ 0.01 ___ 1.0 __ 2.0" 2d (1.0" also Jan 31) _02 ___ 35 _____ 16 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _03 ___ 40 _____ 28 _______ 0.12 ___ 0.0 _04 ___ 39 _____ 27 _______ 0.16 ___ 0.0 _05 ___ 35 _____ 26 _______ 0.15 ___ 1.0 _06 ___ 31 _____ 24 _______ 0.09 ___ 0.8 (1.8 2d) _07 ___ 28 _____ 24 _______ 0.20 ___ 2.6 _08 ___ 31 _____ 11 ________ 0.30 ___ 3.9 (6.5 2d) _09 ___ 11 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _10 ___ 07 _____-06 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _11 ___ 09 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _12 ___ 09 _____ 04 _______ 0.23 ___ 5.3 _13 ___ 11 _____ 06 _______ 0.47 ___ 10.7 (16.0)2d _14 ___ 24 _____ 10 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _15 ___ 35 _____ 18 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _16 ___ 37 _____ 26 _______ 0.71 ___ 0.0 _17 ___ 47 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _18 ___ 45 _____ 36 _______ 0.43 ___ 0.0 _19 ___ 41 _____ 36 _______ 0.01 ___ 0.0 _20___ 49 _____ 36 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _21 ___ 53 _____ 40 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _22 ___ 52 _____ 41 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _23 ___ 46 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _24 ___ 34 _____ 26 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _25 ___ 40 _____ 22 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _26 ___ 45 _____ 32 _______ 1.00 ___ Tr _ _27 ___ 50 _____ 36 _______ 0.03 ___ 0.0 _28 ___ 45 _____ 27 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 avg,_ 33.9 ____ 21.8 ______ 3.91 ___ 25.3" snow tot __ ___( 27.8 )___ __ __ __ (1.72" rain on days w/zero snow + any mixed in on snowfall days -- probably zero) Ground was likely bare to traces on Jan 30, but frozen, 2" fell 31st-1st to start February, after a rainstorm (1.55") on Jan 24 near 50F probably removed any snow cover (no large falls in Jan before it). Temperatures fell below freezing around Jan 28 but only small amounts of snow fell Jan 24 to 30. Low max readings are still daily records for Feb 10, 11, 12, 13. (Feb 9 11F broken by 8F in 1934) ... Low min Feb 10, 11 still records; Feb 9 (-2) was broken in 1934. Note five consecutive days max temp 11 F or lower (Feb 9-13) leading up to blizzard. Not sure about reports for blizzard being on Feb 14, sources I consulted verify overnite Feb 12-13, low was closest to NYC 12z to 18z Feb 13 and in eastern Canada by Feb 14. Blizzard conditions probably persisted into Feb 14 due to strong winds. 16.0" of snow fell Feb 12-13 at NYC. Cold rainfall after snowstorm must have made a real mess of recovery efforts, wonder if it glazed over for part of Feb 16? Next rainfall on Feb 18 likely left a lot of slushy ponding, full snow melt likely in warmer days around Feb 20-22. max 53F Feb 21 was a record (1869-1899) only to 1906 (58F), broken several more times since. A lot of rain fell in a cold second half of march and 3.0" snow on mar 7, 1.0" mar 25-26. April was reasonably warm and it was briefly very warm Apr 30 to may 2 (76, 84, 86) ... warmest part of summer was early June, several days in mid 90s June 5-8 and another notable cold spell came Oct 1-3 (max 51, 49, 52, min 42, 40, 38). Storm position s.e. of NYC at 18z Feb 13, 1899 from NOAA (wetterzentrale). http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1899&maand=02&dag=13&uur=1800&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref You could look back or forward to see rest of key events. Earlier 6.5" snowstorm was a coastal low also. First rainfall looked like a weak nor'easter, flow lifted in stages after Feb 17. Feb 14 1899 probably a ground blizzard situation, strong N-NW winds but likely sunny and cold above blowing snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 13” on the season here. If I get to 15” I’ll consider it a success. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 hours ago, North and West said: Everyone is entitled to their own opinion; they’re not entitled to their own facts. Interesting story published today:https://www.wsj.com/science/environment/geoengineering-projects-cool-planet-weather-f0619bf7 . It's fine, once the AMOC stops all you have to do is survive the ecological disaster and then we'll have more snow in North America again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 44 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Stats for Central Park NYC Feb 1899 Date __ max ___ min _____ Prec ___ Snow _ 01 ___ 21 _____ 12 _______ 0.01 ___ 1.0 __ 2.0" 2d (1.0" also Jan 31) _02 ___ 35 _____ 16 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _03 ___ 40 _____ 28 _______ 0.12 ___ 0.0 _04 ___ 39 _____ 27 _______ 0.16 ___ 0.0 _05 ___ 35 _____ 26 _______ 0.15 ___ 1.0 _06 ___ 31 _____ 24 _______ 0.09 ___ 0.8 (1.8 2d) _07 ___ 28 _____ 24 _______ 0.20 ___ 2.6 _08 ___ 31 _____ 11 ________ 0.30 ___ 3.9 (6.5 2d) _09 ___ 11 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _10 ___ 07 _____-06 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _11 ___ 09 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _12 ___ 09 _____ 04 _______ 0.23 ___ 5.3 _13 ___ 11 _____ 06 _______ 0.47 ___ 10.7 (16.0)2d _14 ___ 24 _____ 10 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _15 ___ 35 _____ 18 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _16 ___ 37 _____ 26 _______ 0.71 ___ 0.0 _17 ___ 47 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _18 ___ 45 _____ 36 _______ 0.43 ___ 0.0 _19 ___ 41 _____ 36 _______ 0.01 ___ 0.0 _20___ 49 _____ 36 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _21 ___ 53 _____ 40 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _22 ___ 52 _____ 41 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _23 ___ 46 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _24 ___ 34 _____ 26 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _25 ___ 40 _____ 22 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _26 ___ 45 _____ 32 _______ 1.00 ___ Tr _ _27 ___ 50 _____ 36 _______ 0.03 ___ 0.0 _28 ___ 45 _____ 27 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 avg,_ 33.9 ____ 21.8 ______ 3.91 ___ 25.3" snow tot __ ___( 27.8 )___ __ __ __ (1.72" rain on days w/zero snow + any mixed in on snowfall days -- probably zero) Ground was likely bare to traces on Jan 30, but frozen, 2" fell 31st-1st to start February, after a rainstorm (1.55") on Jan 24 near 50F probably removed any snow cover (no large falls in Jan before it). Temperatures fell below freezing around Jan 28 but only small amounts of snow fell Jan 24 to 30. Low max readings are still daily records for Feb 10, 11, 12, 13. (Feb 9 11F broken by 8F in 1934) ... Low min Feb 10, 11 still records; Feb 9 (-2) was broken in 1934. Note five consecutive days max temp 11 F or lower (Feb 9-13) leading up to blizzard. Not sure about reports for blizzard being on Feb 14, sources I consulted verify overnite Feb 12-13, low was closest to NYC 12z to 18z Feb 13 and in eastern Canada by Feb 14. Blizzard conditions probably persisted into Feb 14 due to strong winds. 16.0" of snow fell Feb 12-13 at NYC. Cold rainfall after snowstorm must have made a real mess of recovery efforts, wonder if it glazed over for part of Feb 16? Next rainfall on Feb 18 likely left a lot of slushy ponding, full snow melt likely in warmer days around Feb 20-22. max 53F Feb 21 was a record (1869-1899) only to 1906 (58F), broken several more times since. A lot of rain fell in a cold second half of march and 3.0" snow on mar 7, 1.0" mar 25-26. April was reasonably warm and it was briefly very warm Apr 30 to may 2 (76, 84, 86) ... warmest part of summer was early June, several days in mid 90s June 5-8 and another notable cold spell came Oct 1-3 (max 51, 49, 52, min 42, 40, 38). Storm position s.e. of NYC at 18z Feb 13, 1899 from NOAA (wetterzentrale). http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1899&maand=02&dag=13&uur=1800&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref You could look back or forward to see rest of key events. Earlier 6.5" snowstorm was a coastal low also. First rainfall looked like a weak nor'easter, flow lifted in stages after Feb 17. Feb 14 1899 probably a ground blizzard situation, strong N-NW winds but likely sunny and cold above blowing snow. Wow a 2 day 16" snowstorm in February 1899 (even though Cape May did get close to 3 feet lol), with a high of 11 and a low of 4 over those two days? Since this was heavier farther south, do you think the south shore of Long Island would have gotten 2 feet plus in this storm (much like the Feb 1961 and Feb 1969 storms where JFK got close to 2 feet of snow while Central Park got around 15-16 inches in each.) If that happened today.. it would probably be suppressed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 47 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Stats for Central Park NYC Feb 1899 Date __ max ___ min _____ Prec ___ Snow _ 01 ___ 21 _____ 12 _______ 0.01 ___ 1.0 __ 2.0" 2d (1.0" also Jan 31) _02 ___ 35 _____ 16 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _03 ___ 40 _____ 28 _______ 0.12 ___ 0.0 _04 ___ 39 _____ 27 _______ 0.16 ___ 0.0 _05 ___ 35 _____ 26 _______ 0.15 ___ 1.0 _06 ___ 31 _____ 24 _______ 0.09 ___ 0.8 (1.8 2d) _07 ___ 28 _____ 24 _______ 0.20 ___ 2.6 _08 ___ 31 _____ 11 ________ 0.30 ___ 3.9 (6.5 2d) _09 ___ 11 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _10 ___ 07 _____-06 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _11 ___ 09 _____-02 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _12 ___ 09 _____ 04 _______ 0.23 ___ 5.3 _13 ___ 11 _____ 06 _______ 0.47 ___ 10.7 (16.0)2d _14 ___ 24 _____ 10 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _15 ___ 35 _____ 18 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _16 ___ 37 _____ 26 _______ 0.71 ___ 0.0 _17 ___ 47 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _18 ___ 45 _____ 36 _______ 0.43 ___ 0.0 _19 ___ 41 _____ 36 _______ 0.01 ___ 0.0 _20___ 49 _____ 36 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _21 ___ 53 _____ 40 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _22 ___ 52 _____ 41 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _23 ___ 46 _____ 34 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _24 ___ 34 _____ 26 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _25 ___ 40 _____ 22 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 _26 ___ 45 _____ 32 _______ 1.00 ___ Tr _ _27 ___ 50 _____ 36 _______ 0.03 ___ 0.0 _28 ___ 45 _____ 27 _______ 0.00 ___ 0.0 avg,_ 33.9 ____ 21.8 ______ 3.91 ___ 25.3" snow tot __ ___( 27.8 )___ __ __ __ (1.72" rain on days w/zero snow + any mixed in on snowfall days -- probably zero) Ground was likely bare to traces on Jan 30, but frozen, 2" fell 31st-1st to start February, after a rainstorm (1.55") on Jan 24 near 50F probably removed any snow cover (no large falls in Jan before it). Temperatures fell below freezing around Jan 28 but only small amounts of snow fell Jan 24 to 30. Low max readings are still daily records for Feb 10, 11, 12, 13. (Feb 9 11F broken by 8F in 1934) ... Low min Feb 10, 11 still records; Feb 9 (-2) was broken in 1934. Note five consecutive days max temp 11 F or lower (Feb 9-13) leading up to blizzard. Not sure about reports for blizzard being on Feb 14, sources I consulted verify overnite Feb 12-13, low was closest to NYC 12z to 18z Feb 13 and in eastern Canada by Feb 14. Blizzard conditions probably persisted into Feb 14 due to strong winds. 16.0" of snow fell Feb 12-13 at NYC. Cold rainfall after snowstorm must have made a real mess of recovery efforts, wonder if it glazed over for part of Feb 16? Next rainfall on Feb 18 likely left a lot of slushy ponding, full snow melt likely in warmer days around Feb 20-22. max 53F Feb 21 was a record (1869-1899) only to 1906 (58F), broken several more times since. A lot of rain fell in a cold second half of march and 3.0" snow on mar 7, 1.0" mar 25-26. April was reasonably warm and it was briefly very warm Apr 30 to may 2 (76, 84, 86) ... warmest part of summer was early June, several days in mid 90s June 5-8 and another notable cold spell came Oct 1-3 (max 51, 49, 52, min 42, 40, 38). Storm position s.e. of NYC at 18z Feb 13, 1899 from NOAA (wetterzentrale). http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1899&maand=02&dag=13&uur=1800&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref You could look back or forward to see rest of key events. Earlier 6.5" snowstorm was a coastal low also. First rainfall looked like a weak nor'easter, flow lifted in stages after Feb 17. Feb 14 1899 probably a ground blizzard situation, strong N-NW winds but likely sunny and cold above blowing snow. Wait, this goes all the back to 1836 if you use the drop down menu, does this mean we can analyze any storm from 1836 onwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 It is a bit hit or miss for details before about 1850, I've found, knowing some other sources for European storms like a destructive windstorm in Ireland in Jan 1839 for which maps seem under-done on intensity, but yes it can be used in combination with the Alexis Caswell Providence RI weather diary to get a very good idea of what was going on even back a bit before the map series now starts. In my thread in the climate change forum (NYC and Toronto weather records analyzed) I've got a link to Caswell's diary on line version, and also I compiled daily records for is 30-year period of obs (1831-60) including quite a few big snowstorms. Just off the top of my head, blizzards in Jan 1852, Dec 1853 around New Years eve, early Jan 1856 and the super cold outbreak blizzard of (around) Jan 21, 1857, so a very active period 1852 to 1857. That severe winter episode was followed within 2-3 weeks by record warmth and flooding rains (ice jams). It was not as active either side (but there's a very juicy looking storm around Feb 5, 1845 that I know dumped 15-20 inches on Toronto. Another historic storm where you can see some map details would be Jan 31, 1843, a pattern changer that led into a long interval of severe winter conditions in the U.S. midwest states (very harsh for two months in WI and IL). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Nibor said: It's fine, once the AMOC stops all you have to do is survive the ecological disaster and then we'll have more snow in North America again. The AMOC shutting down abruptly would wildly disrupt monsoon cycles and lead to major agricultural failure. Whatever the actual acute temperature impacts on North America (lesser) and Europe (greater), it would be a catastrophe for many other reasons. There was a concerning paper last year stating collapse could occur between 2025 and 2090 which is considerably sped up from timelines running on older data. Doesn’t mean they’re inherently correct, but it’s concerning (IMHO). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 4 hours ago, wdrag said: I love these spells of winter. Noting that it helps hold the snow cover out here. Continues beautiful. Was driving a patient in an ambulance at 5A over High Point - somewhat slippery roads in flurries, blowing snow and gusty Winds 3gusting 0 MPH. So different (relative calm in Newton-Sussex) once you get in the valleys and you dont realize how rough it can be. down here in central NJ the snow cover is decreasing rapidly - down to an inch or so with some bare spots - by the time the weekend snow starts probably just patches of an inch or less will remain......... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 1 hour ago, Roger Smith said: It is a bit hit or miss for details before about 1850, I've found, knowing some other sources for European storms like a destructive windstorm in Ireland in Jan 1839 for which maps seem under-done on intensity, but yes it can be used in combination with the Alexis Caswell Providence RI weather diary to get a very good idea of what was going on even back a bit before the map series now starts. In my thread in the climate change forum (NYC and Toronto weather records analyzed) I've got a link to Caswell's diary on line version, and also I compiled daily records for is 30-year period of obs (1831-60) including quite a few big snowstorms. Just off the top of my head, blizzards in Jan 1852, Dec 1853 around New Years eve, early Jan 1856 and the super cold outbreak blizzard of (around) Jan 21, 1857, so a very active period 1852 to 1857. That severe winter episode was followed within 2-3 weeks by record warmth and flooding rains (ice jams). It was not as active either side (but there's a very juicy looking storm around Feb 5, 1845 that I know dumped 15-20 inches on Toronto. Another historic storm where you can see some map details would be Jan 31, 1843, a pattern changer that led into a long interval of severe winter conditions in the U.S. midwest states (very harsh for two months in WI and IL). Thanks, I've been looking for storm by storm details of some of the elusive winters that dumped 100" of snow in NYC and PHL I believe there was one in the late 1830s and another one in the 1840s with continuous snow cover from November through March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 2 things that astonish me, and yes I know, I’ve said them before, but I can’t help but repeat them now. 1. a quick pattern regression after Feb 25th or so, into one that is consistent with a western trough and eastern ridge, which would provide west US with ample opportunity for both winter weather and severe storms (this is a complete shift from the projected pattern for the same period that has been showing up the past few weeks) 2. If any winter could be dubbed “the year without a winter” it would be this one. Only twelve named winter Storms from the weather channel up until this point. And for all those who will say it’s unscientific to name winter storms (I agree on some level), lake ice extent is at a record low, temperature anomalies are near a record high for the northern tier, and almost the whole nation is well below average for both snowcover and snowfall to date. 3. in terms of winter weather and severity, this is even milder than 2012,2020, and 2023 for almost the entirety of CONUS. Remember, 2023, while being historically un snowy for this board, was historically snowy for many from west coast through upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This year, no one is winning (except for a few places in Deep South where one snowstorm is a good season for them). I think NYC has only dropped into the teens like 2 nights at most. 4. And with the projected jet extension in beginning of March, that will put this winter to bed, the chefs kiss. 3 jet extension torches. One for the last 3 weeks of December, one in first 2 weeks of February, and one projected in early March. Critical timeframes of winter totally shunted CONUSwide by a dominant pacific. Incredible. Surprisingly, with the clipper event coming up (and other snow not withstanding), NYC has more snow than 2020, 2023, 2002, 1998, and will likely have more than 2012 when all is said and done. Yet with the great patterns indicated for much of the season, somehow this hurts even more. And it’s awful for storm tracking when much of the nation has been void of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 3 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said: 2 things that astonish me, and yes I know, I’ve said them before, but I can’t help but repeat them now. 1. a quick pattern regression after Feb 25th or so, into one that is consistent with a western trough and eastern ridge, which would provide west US with ample opportunity for both winter weather and severe storms (this is a complete shift from the projected pattern for the same period that has been showing up the past few weeks) 2. If any winter could be dubbed “the year without a winter” it would be this one. Only twelve named winter Storms from the weather channel up until this point. And for all those who will say it’s unscientific to name winter storms (I agree on some level), lake ice extent is at a record low, temperature anomalies are near a record high for the northern tier, and almost the whole nation is well below average for both snowcover and snowfall to date. 3. in terms of winter weather and severity, this is even milder than 2012,2020, and 2023 for almost the entirety of CONUS. Remember, 2023, while being historically un snowy for this board, was historically snowy for many from west coast through upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This year, no one is winning (except for a few places in Deep South where one snowstorm is a good season for them). I think NYC has only dropped into the teens like 2 nights at most. 4. And with the projected jet extension in beginning of March, that will put this winter to bed, the chefs kiss. 3 jet extension torches. One for the last 3 weeks of December, one in first 2 weeks of February, and one projected in early March. Critical timeframes of winter totally shunted CONUSwide by a dominant pacific. Incredible. Surprisingly, with the clipper event coming up (and other snow not withstanding), NYC has more snow than 2020, 2023, 2002, 1998, and will likely have more than 2012 when all is said and done. Yet with the great patterns indicated for much of the season, somehow this hurts even more. And it’s awful for storm tracking when much of the nation has been void of snow. Winter storm naming isn't unscientific, it's done in Europe. It's the silly names they pick that I don't like. Winter storm naming can be tied to areal coverage of winter storm warnings for objectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 7 hours ago, Krs4Lfe said: 2 things that astonish me, and yes I know, I’ve said them before, but I can’t help but repeat them now. 1. a quick pattern regression after Feb 25th or so, into one that is consistent with a western trough and eastern ridge, which would provide west US with ample opportunity for both winter weather and severe storms (this is a complete shift from the projected pattern for the same period that has been showing up the past few weeks) 2. If any winter could be dubbed “the year without a winter” it would be this one. Only twelve named winter Storms from the weather channel up until this point. And for all those who will say it’s unscientific to name winter storms (I agree on some level), lake ice extent is at a record low, temperature anomalies are near a record high for the northern tier, and almost the whole nation is well below average for both snowcover and snowfall to date. 3. in terms of winter weather and severity, this is even milder than 2012,2020, and 2023 for almost the entirety of CONUS. Remember, 2023, while being historically un snowy for this board, was historically snowy for many from west coast through upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. This year, no one is winning (except for a few places in Deep South where one snowstorm is a good season for them). I think NYC has only dropped into the teens like 2 nights at most. 4. And with the projected jet extension in beginning of March, that will put this winter to bed, the chefs kiss. 3 jet extension torches. One for the last 3 weeks of December, one in first 2 weeks of February, and one projected in early March. Critical timeframes of winter totally shunted CONUSwide by a dominant pacific. Incredible. Surprisingly, with the clipper event coming up (and other snow not withstanding), NYC has more snow than 2020, 2023, 2002, 1998, and will likely have more than 2012 when all is said and done. Yet with the great patterns indicated for much of the season, somehow this hurts even more. And it’s awful for storm tracking when much of the nation has been void of snow. For me, last year was the year without a winter, in this region. Although I realize places like Minnesota have been unseasonably warm this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 I would say this year very similar to last year here in terms of temps and snow, strong La Niña or strong El Niño, same result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 12 hours ago, LibertyBell said: are rapid pattern shifts also connected to much faster moving storms? By the way the notable exception to all this was our stuck pattern with the omega block when we were cloudy for a week straight. I am guessing the rapid shifts are related to all the extra oceanic heat. So the forcing moves to areas with the warmest SSTs at any given time. Models bring the forcing back to north of Australia next few weeks accompanied by another big jet extension. So we get an early start to spring warmth near the end of February. The big -PNA trough and Southeast ridge has been our default pattern in recent years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next Fri/Sat looks awful. No cold going into it. No blocking. That has cutter/runner written all over it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Snow cover doing work to reduce overnight temps. Down to 17. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Looks like our window MAY be extended to the 26th. However, no current threat after this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 49 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Next Fri/Sat looks awful. No cold going into it. No blocking. That has cutter/runner written all over it Pretty much.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 57 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Next Fri/Sat looks awful. No cold going into it. No blocking. That has cutter/runner written all over it so this weekend's storm is probably the last snowstorm of the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: so this weekend's storm is probably the last snowstorm of the winter? Way too early to say that with a definite answer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now