winterwx21 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: and this doesn't fully take into account 12 - 15:1 ratio's This NAM run actually started it out as a little rain on the leading edge before quickly changing it over to snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 of course Mt. Holly is going conservative again 1-2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: really ? how cold do the surface temps need to be for higher ratio's ? I'm seeing a lot of 30-32. I'd wanna see temps in the 20s for higher ratio. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, NEG NAO said: of course Mt. Holly is going conservative again 1-2 inches That's a fine early starting point. Need to see more model runs showing 2 to 4 inches before bumping the forecast up to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: of course Mt. Holly is going conservative again 1-2 inches What do you expect them to do when guidance is spread 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: This NAM run actually started it out as a little rain on the leading edge before quickly changing it over to snow. tend to doubt that will happen except far south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, SBUWX23 said: What do you expect them to do when guidance is spread cover their rears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: cover their rears Upton has less than an inch for me which is reasonable 2.5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Be careful with just expecting high ratio snow. Yes it's colder aloft but surface temps are still not as cold as I feel needed for higher ratio. Id temper it a bit and say more 10-12:1 Also colder aloft is meaningless if one doesn't have good moisture lift in the DGZ, providing the necessary supersaturation to drive the kind of rapid nucleation of ice crystals and vapor phase deposition/growth on those crystals resulting in low bulk density dendrites. Without the proper dynamics in the DGZ one can still get plates and rods which would likely give 10:1 ratio snow. What cold does avoid, however, is melting/mangling/aggregation of those crystals from falling through >32F layers. Don't know enough about the dynamics on this one to guarantee higher ratio snows. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, RU848789 said: Also colder aloft is meaningless if one doesn't have good moisture lift in the DGZ, providing the necessary supersaturation to drive the kind of rapid nucleation of ice crystals and vapor phase deposition on those crystals resulting in low bulk density dendrites. Without the proper dynamics in the DGZ one can still get plates and rods which would likely give 10:1 ratio snow. What cold does avoid, however, is melting/mangling/aggregation of those crystals from falling through >32F layers. Don't know enough about the dynamics on this one to guarantee higher ratio snows. Yep snow habit plays a key role in ratio. Cold is just one factor. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 NWS first map, but only through 7 am Sat and while it looks like the precip is 80-90% over by then, it's not done yet on some of the models - don't know why they can't just do these through the end of the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: NWS first map, but only through 7 am Sat and while it looks like the precip is 80-90% over by then, it's not done yet on some of the models - don't know why they can't just do these through the end of the storm. they play this ultra conservative game practically every storm - thats what they are instructed by their bosses to do as opposed to what the private sector or media is instructed to advertise........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 45 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave needs to set the Sne forum straight It’s not about setting anyone straight. Not sure why I keep getting quoted multiple times when I am not in that thread. But I have looked at the responses and statements and have some replies. First, we have never had 9 consecutive winters this warm in the Northeast before. One of the dominant themes is that the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool has lead to more forcing from MJO 4-7 which had been written up in numerous studies. Forcing in this region is warm for the Northeast. So it makes perfect sense that it has been this warm in our region over the last 9 winters. I never said that we couldn’t eventually see another colder than average winter in the Northeast. Just that as long as this WPAC warm pool remains so prominent, it will probably load the dice for more warmer than colder winters over time. I am not sure what could shift this but would be open to a change if some new region of tropical forcing can emerge. The reduction in the snowfall has occurred a little later beginning with the 18-19 season. It has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 winters with below normal snowfall in NYC. It seems to be a combo of warmer than normal winters and the more hostile Pacific patterns. The epic 2010-2018 snowfall period carried over into the beginning of the warm winter period that started in December 15 with the historic +13.3 departure. My guess is that the 2010s will stand as our snowiest recent decade. When the 2020s are complete , we are on track for a significantly lower snowfall period vs the 2010s even if snowfall can improve next several seasons. But this doesn’t mean that we can’t have some great snowfall seasons in the mix like 20-21 along the way. Snowfall has been more variable while winters have been steadily warming over the years. Second, the warm blob in the NEPAC from 13-14 to 14-15 was the result of tropical forcing and not the direct cause of the pattern. This pattern quickly shifted after 2 years during the winters but became prominent in the warm season. It was a direct result of the tropical driven Rossby wave pattern. The record PAC NW heatwave a few summers ago and numerous Western drought seasons with the powerful Western Ridge were part of this pattern. An interesting question for study is why the seasonal shift occurred after the 13-14 and 14-15 winters? Feel free to quote this post if you like. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaz Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: and this doesn't fully take into account 12 - 15:1 ratio's The Dendrite growth should be very favorable but an above-freezing surface can spoil the ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s not about setting anyone straight. Not sure why I keep getting quoted multiple times when I am not in that thread. But I have looked at the responses and statements and have some replies. First, we have never had 9 consecutive winters this warm in the Northeast before. One of the dominant themes is that the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool has lead to more forcing from MJO 4-7 which had been written up in numerous studies. Forcing in this region is warm for the Northeast. So it makes perfect sense that it has been this warm in our region over the last 9 winters. I never said that we couldn’t eventually see another colder than average winter in the Northeast. Just that as long as this WPAC warm pool remains so prominent, it will probably load the dice for more warmer than colder winters over time. I am not sure what could shift this but would be open to a change if some new region of tropical forcing can emerge. The reduction in the snowfall has occurred a little later beginning with the 18-19 season. It has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 winters with below normal snowfall in NYC. It seems to be a combo of warmer than normal winters and the more hostile Pacific patterns. The epic 2010-2018 snowfall period carried over into the beginning of the warm winter period that started in December 15 with the historic +13.3 departure. My guess is that the 2010s will stand as our snowiest recent decade. When the 2020s are complete , we are on track for a significantly lower snowfall period vs the 2010s even if snowfall can improve next several seasons. But this doesn’t mean that we can’t have some great snowfall seasons in the mix like 20-21 along the way. Snowfall has been more variable while winters have been steadily warming over the years. Second, the warm blob in the NEPAC from 13-14 to 14-15 was the result of tropical forcing and not the direct cause of the pattern. This pattern quickly shifted after 2 years during the winters but became prominent in the warm season. It was a direct result of the tropical driven Rossby wave pattern. The record PAC NW heatwave a few summers ago and numerous Western drought seasons with the powerful Western Ridge were part of this pattern. An interesting question for study is why the seasonal shift occurred after the 13-14 and 14-15 winters? Feel free to quote this post if you like. I don't think you were posted, it was a discussion between Forky, Tip and ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 thread created for Saturday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I don't think you were posted, it was a discussion between Forky, Tip and ORH. You can quote my whole post from above if you like. But I don’t want to get misquoted in one of our other regional forums. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 For what its worth, I tried to take into account member requests but kept this new thread relatively simple at this point adding SREF, CMCE, EPS, GEFS, NBM and a singular sample of projected SLR for refresher thread. My confidence is shaped by the ensembles and so I too am conservative. fwiw... I think a good early posture is to be a little low on expectations and if modeling becomes more favorable for higher amounts. then go with it. Forecasters dont like to answer: what happened-especially from Emergency Managers and the Media. Reliability is so important - it develops followers and I think that's the goal for all of us, and most certainly the NWS which has to convey preparedness messages. An important aspect of this coming event, whatever it is... its at night, and below freezing so all untreated surfaces will accumulate and hopefully we see beautification Saturday morning even if its wimpy compared to our desires. Fingers crossed. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s not about setting anyone straight. Not sure why I keep getting quoted multiple times when I am not in that thread. But I have looked at the responses and statements and have some replies. First, we have never had 9 consecutive winters this warm in the Northeast before. One of the dominant themes is that the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool has lead to more forcing from MJO 4-7 which had been written up in numerous studies. Forcing in this region is warm for the Northeast. So it makes perfect sense that it has been this warm in our region over the last 9 winters. I never said that we couldn’t eventually see another colder than average winter in the Northeast. Just that as long as this WPAC warm pool remains so prominent, it will probably load the dice for more warmer than colder winters over time. I am not sure what could shift this but would be open to a change if some new region of tropical forcing can emerge. The reduction in the snowfall has occurred a little later beginning with the 18-19 season. It has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 winters with below normal snowfall in NYC. It seems to be a combo of warmer than normal winters and the more hostile Pacific patterns. The epic 2010-2018 snowfall period carried over into the beginning of the warm winter period that started in December 15 with the historic +13.3 departure. My guess is that the 2010s will stand as our snowiest recent decade. When the 2020s are complete , we are on track for a significantly lower snowfall period vs the 2010s even if snowfall can improve next several seasons. But this doesn’t mean that we can’t have some great snowfall seasons in the mix like 20-21 along the way. Snowfall has been more variable while winters have been steadily warming over the years. Second, the warm blob in the NEPAC from 13-14 to 14-15 was the result of tropical forcing and not the direct cause of the pattern. This pattern quickly shifted after 2 years during the winters but became prominent in the warm season. It was a direct result of the tropical driven Rossby wave pattern. The record PAC NW heatwave a few summers ago and numerous Western drought seasons with the powerful Western Ridge were part of this pattern. An interesting question for study is why the seasonal shift occurred after the 13-14 and 14-15 winters? Feel free to quote this post if you like. Awesome post! Thank you 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 WTF snowman calling for snow? I must be in a parallel universe.The simulation is glitching like when the holodeck short circuits.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 honestly, if we get a little snowfall this weekend i'll take that run. im about done with snow for this season. i enjoy it more in december and january. once feb rolls around i start itching for some warmer weather. yesterdays event was really nice to see, and kind of brought a sort of closure to me for this winter. anything else is the cherry on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 A cooler pattern is now in place. This will not be an especially cold pattern, but it will be noticeably colder than the pattern that defined the first 10 days of the month. The week will remain dry through Friday aside from a possible shower of rain or snow tomorrow. A system could bring a light snowfall to parts of the region on Saturday ahead of another shot of cooler but not severely cold air. By next week, milder weather will likely begin to overspread the region. The potential exists for the closing days of February to wind up much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around February 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.62°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -19.84 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.376 today. On February 12 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.859 (RMM). The February 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.892 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.3° (2.4° above normal). Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 39.8°-40.4°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. The probability that Winter 2023-2024 will have a mean temperature of 40.0° or above has increased in recent days. Should Winter 2023-2024 finish with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above, that would be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with such warmth. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gefs north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You can quote my whole post from above if you like. But I don’t want to get misquoted in one of our other regional forums. I have seen you, in general, be misquoted and have statements attributed to you that I’ve not seen you make in various other subforums this year. So you’re not wrong, I’ve seen it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Rapid pattern shifts have been the norm this season which the warmer ones dominating. are rapid pattern shifts also connected to much faster moving storms? By the way the notable exception to all this was our stuck pattern with the omega block when we were cloudy for a week straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: IMO ORH_wxman and Forky two of the best posters. I wouldn't call anyone in this forum a "climate specialist" they are all just giving their guesses. Here's a fact though-- we've hit +1.5C of warming over the last 12 months and faster than we thought we would. Can't argue with facts. Let's see where we go from here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s not about setting anyone straight. Not sure why I keep getting quoted multiple times when I am not in that thread. But I have looked at the responses and statements and have some replies. First, we have never had 9 consecutive winters this warm in the Northeast before. One of the dominant themes is that the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool has lead to more forcing from MJO 4-7 which had been written up in numerous studies. Forcing in this region is warm for the Northeast. So it makes perfect sense that it has been this warm in our region over the last 9 winters. I never said that we couldn’t eventually see another colder than average winter in the Northeast. Just that as long as this WPAC warm pool remains so prominent, it will probably load the dice for more warmer than colder winters over time. I am not sure what could shift this but would be open to a change if some new region of tropical forcing can emerge. The reduction in the snowfall has occurred a little later beginning with the 18-19 season. It has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 winters with below normal snowfall in NYC. It seems to be a combo of warmer than normal winters and the more hostile Pacific patterns. The epic 2010-2018 snowfall period carried over into the beginning of the warm winter period that started in December 15 with the historic +13.3 departure. My guess is that the 2010s will stand as our snowiest recent decade. When the 2020s are complete , we are on track for a significantly lower snowfall period vs the 2010s even if snowfall can improve next several seasons. But this doesn’t mean that we can’t have some great snowfall seasons in the mix like 20-21 along the way. Snowfall has been more variable while winters have been steadily warming over the years. Second, the warm blob in the NEPAC from 13-14 to 14-15 was the result of tropical forcing and not the direct cause of the pattern. This pattern quickly shifted after 2 years during the winters but became prominent in the warm season. It was a direct result of the tropical driven Rossby wave pattern. The record PAC NW heatwave a few summers ago and numerous Western drought seasons with the powerful Western Ridge were part of this pattern. An interesting question for study is why the seasonal shift occurred after the 13-14 and 14-15 winters? Feel free to quote this post if you like. Don't worry, I have your back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: 2/14/1940 Central Park - 9.0" Farmingdale - 11.0" Babylon - 9.5" Setauket - 7.5" Bridgehampton - 5.2" Riverhead - 5.5" Not bad at all! Might have been our biggest Valentine's Day snowstorm at least of this century. Ed, you wouldn't happen to have any totals from the 2/14/1899 snowstorm for our area would you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: This'll probably be a one hit wonder season like 94-95 with the smaller events like maybe Sat thrown in. Not the absolute basement of lousy but next step up. even that one hit was sort of a peewee hit with around 4 inches in the city and immediate surrounding area lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: I agree. Enjoy whatever we get for Saturday, which my guess is probably a plowable event (maybe something like 3-5 inches?). The final few days of this month and early March looks ugly I take it you dont have a lot of hope for the projected event around the 24th do you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now