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February 2024


wdrag
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3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Support is definitely growing for a warm early March and that would fit strong El Niño climo too…..past events had a warm to very warm early-mid March

It’s an impressive warm signal to start March. As the El Niño begins to fade, the northern branch of the Pacific Jet becomes active again. So the ensembles have a twin Pacific jet extension of both branches. This is followed by a deep trough out West and Southeast ridge pattern taking hold to start March. 
 

C9FCCF67-5A53-4427-957E-FE8716AEA1FE.thumb.png.a88f956598e6da4e8787dfbf1b648e25.png

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The 12z RGEM has a really solid event here.

Around 0.2 to 0.3" QPF could easily be a 3-5" event with high ratios expected. 

There should be a quick moving area of enough lift to give a few hour burst of moderate to locally heavy snow.

rgem_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_70.png

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s an impressive warm signal to start March. As the El Niño begins to fade, the northern branch of the Pacific Jet becomes active again. So the ensembles have a twin Pacific jet extension of both branches. This is followed by a deep trough out West and Southeast ridge pattern taking hold to start March. 
 

C9FCCF67-5A53-4427-957E-FE8716AEA1FE.thumb.png.a88f956598e6da4e8787dfbf1b648e25.png

We deserve a nice and mild start to Spring after the last few years.

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

We deserve a nice and mild start to Spring after the last few years.

While it looks like it will start out warmer than normal, it could also be a stormy pattern with a big -PNA trough out West and dueling branches of the Pacific Jet. 

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15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z RGEM has a really solid event here.

Around 0.2 to 0.3" QPF could easily be a 3-5" event with high ratios expected. 

There should be a quick moving area of enough lift to give a few hour burst of moderate to locally heavy snow.

rgem_temp_adv_fgen_700_neus_70.png

Cmc is a light event also 

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38 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

So, CMC, RGEM, Icon and NBM are good for 1-2" (and 3" in spots) for most of the area while the GFS/NAM have 1" or less generally.  Let's see what the UK/Euro bring.  Would love to get even a little more snow - not sure ours will last until Saturday.  

I have a feeling Fri night/Sat morning trends north tomorrow, strengthens and drops plowable snow. Finally an event that will actually have high ratios and most likely impressive mid and upper level dynamics and likely an impressive heavy snow band with it. The fact that the RGEM is amped is a red flag it’s dropping over 2 inches at just 10:1 ratios

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14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I have a feeling Fri night/Sat morning trends north tomorrow, strengthens and drops plowable snow. Finally an event that will actually have high ratios and most likely impressive mid and upper level dynamics and likely an impressive heavy snow band with it. The fact that the RGEM is amped is a red flag it’s dropping over 2 inches at just 10:1 ratios

If I see an actual good setup, I’ll say it. It’s been years. Best looking setup for an all snow event with high ratios, low level cold and mid/upper dynamics since February, 2021 IMO 

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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If I see an actual good setup, I’ll say it. It’s been years. Best looking setup for an all snow event with high ratios, low level cold and mid/upper dynamics since February, 2021 IMO 

Shows you how awful it's been.  Our last good pattern was 3 yrs ago.   (no, I don't consider Jan 2024 good-it was an 8-9 day island in a sea of torch.)

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I plan to get the thread started at530 PM with multi ens and broad wording.  It wlll have “refresher” and “obs” in the title attempting to limit title changes. especially only 72 hours out. 

 

Have not been using UKMET thos year. 
 

Also these events are worthy of model perception perspective.  Only imo, EC is no longer the constant King. 

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s an impressive warm signal to start March. As the El Niño begins to fade, the northern branch of the Pacific Jet becomes active again. So the ensembles have a twin Pacific jet extension of both branches. This is followed by a deep trough out West and Southeast ridge pattern taking hold to start March. 
 

C9FCCF67-5A53-4427-957E-FE8716AEA1FE.thumb.png.a88f956598e6da4e8787dfbf1b648e25.png

at least we're getting to the time of year now where it's more likely to mean warm and sunny rather than just dreary and rainy, I'm remembering some amazing March weather like March 1990

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10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If I see an actual good setup, I’ll say it. It’s been years. Best looking setup for an all snow event with high ratios, low level cold and mid/upper dynamics since February, 2021 IMO 

I still remember when you were so excited about January 2016.

That was our last --true-- great set up for snow.

The ones since have been more borderline.

They've had temp issues or the storm has been moving too quickly or we were on the edge.

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Shows you how awful it's been.  Our last good pattern was 3 yrs ago.   (no, I don't consider Jan 2024 good-it was an 8-9 day island in a sea of torch.)

Jan 22 was good, but unfortunately not uniformly so for everyone. I rate it higher though not just because of 1/29 but also the relatively sustained NN - BN temps. 

It’s admittedly a perspective and opinion thing because I actually appreciate cold in winter even if it’s not served with significant snowfall. 

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I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a quick pattern regression as we’ve seen over the last week. A quick breakdown of the -NAO around end of month, coupled with a pac jet extension to kick off March. Lots of February-March wintry favorable forecasts are in high danger at this point.

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3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Snowman has been a great poster this year, I followed him over in the El Niño thread and he had some excellent insight and general contribution.

I will say he has a lot of weather knowledge. I used to think he just wanted to put down snow lovers, but lately he has been showing more that he does want us to enjoy our snow. He can just be uncomfortably honest.

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7 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a quick pattern regression as we’ve seen over the last week. A quick breakdown of the -NAO around end of month, coupled with a pac jet extension to kick off March. Lots of February-March wintry favorable forecasts are in high danger at this point.

Seasonal Trend.  "what the winter does in December, winter will remember"   Warm/snowless winters tend to stay that way.    We had a brief window in January, one should have been suspicious of calls for a 4-5 week good/great pattern based on the seasonal trend...

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11 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a quick pattern regression as we’ve seen over the last week. A quick breakdown of the -NAO around end of month, coupled with a pac jet extension to kick off March. Lots of February-March wintry favorable forecasts are in high danger at this point.

Anyone think it might take longer than modeled since pattern changes are often delayed?

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25 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I plan to get the thread started at530 PM with multi ens and broad wording.  It wlll have “refresher” and “obs” in the title attempting to limit title changes. especially only 72 hours out. 

 

Have not been using UKMET thos year. 
 

Also these events are worthy of model perception perspective.  Only imo, EC is no longer the constant King. 

High Ratio's should be in the wording too IMO 12 -15:1

 

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29 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a quick pattern regression as we’ve seen over the last week. A quick breakdown of the -NAO around end of month, coupled with a pac jet extension to kick off March. Lots of February-March wintry favorable forecasts are in high danger at this point.

But if we end up getting 2 snow events out of it (yesterday and saturday morning), at least we'll be able to say that the mid to late February pattern produced decently. 

Anyway 12z Euro gets light snow up here. About an inch, with more for  southern NJ. Hopefully the RGEM is right and we'll see some north trends with the other models. Would be nice to get 2 or 3 inches. 

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