Volcanic Winter Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m an 9 on the season, infinitely better than last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: South of us too! DC and Baltimore are around average snowfall for this time of year and have a legit shot at reaching. It's Philly, CPK and oddly Boston in this year snow hole. Even with poor measurement, CPK has more snowfall than the entirety of 97/98. They can still see a couple more inches before things fall apart around the 24th. if you look nationwide almost every station is below or well below average snowfall for the date....amazing bad on a national level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I like cold and damp springs For once you live in the perfect spot for that... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: Don’t know what the exact weather is going to be on March 6th, but we could be talking about 60° readings near the beginning of March. Especially if we go toward that La Niña look of deep trough out West and Southeast ridge. Support is definitely growing for a warm early March and that would fit strong El Niño climo too…..past events had a warm to very warm early-mid March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: if you look nationwide almost every station is below or well below average snowfall for the date....amazing bad on a national level. Not really, the west coast, Tennessee and the MA are doing well, and that's good when comparing to 97/98. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 51 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nyc snow hole aside it shows how hard it is to get 2 awful winters in a row. At least this one is just bad so far and I'd imagine places like Sussex and orange are at their seasonal average to date. Allentown is close Sounds like the NYC snow hole was worse than mine. Even with a perfect setup, and radar showing the heaviest yet to come, it cut off anyways. That's why I say, snow is a miracle in NYC metro area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Not really, the west coast, Tennessee and the MA are doing well, and that's good when comparing to 97/98. you be the judge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: We can't complain this year, we performed far better than 97/98 even if we have seen out last snow!! Avoided first back to back sub 10 inch seasons in my lifetime. Sitting at 12.5. of course you can complain the last two winters have sucked Comparing this to 97/98 is like saying I failed the test but at least I scored higher than the kid who also failed, but with a lower score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: We can't complain this year, we performed far better than 97/98 even if we have seen out last snow!! Avoided first back to back sub 10 inch seasons in my lifetime. Sitting at 12.5. NYC will probably not avoid it and neither will most of the rest of us on the coast. You are in CT-- a completely different climate from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Completely agree! Sure 15/16 and 82/83 were better, however avoiding 97/98 was great. lol the snowfall total this year is exactly the same as 97-98 and I dont understand why 97-98 became the bar for anything, it wasn't even the least snowiest winter, but it was a complete failure and so is this winter, not just for us, but for the entire nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 57 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nyc snow hole aside it shows how hard it is to get 2 awful winters in a row. At least this one is just bad so far and I'd imagine places like Sussex and orange are at their seasonal average to date. Allentown is close I would classify anything at under 10 inches as just awful and in the lowest possible category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: NYC will probably not avoid it and neither will most of the rest of us on the coast. You are in CT-- a completely different climate from us. I've made it to double digits even with all 3 Jan storms underperforming here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: South of us too! DC and Baltimore are around average snowfall for this time of year and have a legit shot at reaching. It's Philly, CPK and oddly Boston in this year snow hole. Even with poor measurement, CPK has more snowfall than the entirety of 97/98. They can still see a couple more inches before things fall apart around the 24th. again I dont get this need to compare this to 97-98, as of now they are equally bad but no one besides you even cares about 97-98 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Worry that we are entering warm MJO phases too early. I would much rather have a cold snowy March than a cold rainy April. dont worry we wont get either, we will likely have a warm dry March and a hot and dry April leading into a hot and dry summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 40 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yup, that's why I worry about flipping to a warmer pattern for March. It will likely be more like 2010 than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 35 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Unless it's like 2010 where we flip and have a warm spring yeah this is what usually happens after strong el ninos going to la ninas Not just 2010 either, but several other warm seasons were just like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: of course you can complain the last two winters have sucked Comparing this to 97/98 is like saying I failed the test but at least I scored higher than the kid who also failed, but with a lower score. Thing is you always play with fire when you have a strong El Nino. Also, you have to take into consideration the background state. 15/16 was in our 00/18 period. 97/98 was in our putrid 70/99 30 year period. I honestly exceeded what I expected going into this year. If you want you can reference 82/83, but then you need to consider that this is the 4th strong El nino, so 50% chance at a one storm event bringing us to average snowfall? Very Strong: 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: if you look nationwide almost every station is below or well below average snowfall for the date....amazing bad on a national level. Yeah I dont get this jolly attitude and comparing it to 97-98, they are both equally bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Thing is you always play with fire when you have a strong El Nino. Also, you have to take into consideration the background state. 15/16 was in our 00/18 period. 97/98 was in our putrid 70/99 30 year period. I honestly exceeded what I expected going into this year. If you want you can reference 82/83, but then you need to consider that this is the 4th strong El nino, so 50% chance at a one storm event bringing us to average snowfall? Very Strong: 1982-83, 1997-98, 2015-16. If we end up at under 10 inches on the season it's going to be the worst 2 year period in New York City history. Will have to look at JFK's history in the late 90s to see how well it compares with that. But one thing to be happy about, I don't think there's much of a chance of a cool rainy spring, like the last two years I would bet on a warm and dry spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I've made it to double digits even with all 3 Jan storms underperforming here Yeah but you're inland. Even disregarding central park, none of the airports here are even close to double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Not really, the west coast, Tennessee and the MA are doing well, and that's good when comparing to 97/98. We can just use the national numbers overall and going by that it's been a historically snowless winter over the CONUS. I dont understand the fixation with TN-- it's just one state lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Think it's bad here? Look at the snowcover map of the upper midwest in the NE forum....bare ground into S Canada (which will likely modify any "cold air" coming our way not to mention ice free great lakes.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: again I dont get this need to compare this to 97-98, as of now they are equally bad but no one besides you even cares about 97-98 lol You KNOW that I am the only person? Why would you even write that? Also, why is it not correct to compare strong El Nino events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: You KNOW that I am the only person? Why would you even write that? Also, why is it not correct to compare strong El Nino events? Because there are other el nino events that were stronger than this that had much more snow and were colder. 1982-83 and 2015-16 I consider 1997-98 an aberration. We even went below 0 in February 2016, on this date, as a matter of fact. Happy Valentine's Day lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: You KNOW that I am the only person? Why would you even write that? Also, why is it not correct to compare strong El Nino events? I've always said this winter could be similar. Only difference is we had a week of winter in January and the March storm came a month early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, LibertyBell said: Because there are other el nino events that were stronger than this that had much more snow and were colder. 1982-83 and 2015-16 I consider 1997-98 an aberration. There were 4 events and 2 were putrid, please explain why 97/98 is an aberration? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Think it's bad here? Look at the snowcover map of the upper midwest in the NE forum....bare ground into S Canada (which will likely modify any "cold air" coming our way not to mention ice free great lakes. This is why I'm worried about Canadian wild fires and bad air quality here again. I think some people are just unaware of how awful things are getting-- and it's about so much more than just snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, EastonSN+ said: There were 4 events and 2 were putrid, please explain why 97/98 is an aberration? I mean it's an aberration because a strong el nino is expected to do better than what 97-98 did and there two other very strong ones did that a lot better, so that makes 1997-98 the aberration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Stormlover74 said: I've always said this winter could be similar. Only difference is we had a week of winter in January and the March storm came a month early Completely agree! Also, there are a couple of more chances at light snow events before we warm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: I've always said this winter could be similar. Only difference is we had a week of winter in January and the March storm came a month early Many on this forum thought it would be much more like 2015-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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