Stormlover74 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, psv88 said: Sign of a garbage winter: arguing about WHY the pattern sucks lol. Who cares its coming in 2 weeks 5 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: its coming in 2 weeks It's getting tiring 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 there was a change in the GEFS ensembles overnight 0Z and 6Z closing off the wave down south which possibly can allow the system to ride up the coast since closed waves are more favorable for making that left hand turn up the coast then open waves which tend to travel more eastward -have to monitor and see if 12Z confirms the closing off of the wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, NEG NAO said: there was a change in the GEFS ensembles overnight closing off the wave down south which possibly can allow the system to ride up the coast since closed waves are more favorable for making that left hand turn up the coast then open waves which tend to travel more eastward -have to monitor and see if 12Z confirms the closing off of the wave Models are backing away from the big cold shot. Maybe this will give us a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: there was a change in the GEFS ensembles overnight closing off the wave down south which possibly can allow the system to ride up the coast since closed waves are more favorable for making that left hand turn up the coast then open waves which tend to travel more eastward -have to monitor and see if 12Z confirms the closing off of the wave If the ULL moves east it takes the cold With it, unfortunately. It would be another perfect track rain storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: its coming in 2 weeks but no one knows when FYP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: FYP December 2027 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, psv88 said: December 2027 I have dully noted December 2027 in the "When Will There Be A Real Winter Pattern?" poll 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 14 minutes ago, psv88 said: Sign of a garbage winter: arguing about WHY the pattern sucks lol. Who cares Just talking about the weather, man! 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 500 mb/Surface Temperature Anomalies for El Niño events with a February Region 3.4 average anomaly of +0.50°C or above and those broken down by select Region 1+2 data. The EPS weeklies are currently showing an evolution toward a pattern similar to Cluster 1. Cold would be less widespread and less significant, as the current background state is warmer. Cluster 1 is comprised of February 1958, 1969, and 2010. All of those cases favored a snowy February in the New York City area. However, persistent warmth in Region 1+2 favors Cluster 4. Cluster 4 typically sees more suppressed storms. Cluster 4 is comprised of February 1973, 1983, 1992, and 1998. February 1983 featured a major East Coast blizzard. The other cases saw a decided lack of snowfall. February 1958 was the single February case with a "warm" Region 1+2 (mean February anomaly of +0.15°C or above) that fell into Cluster 1. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 This winter was always going to be a 97-98 repeat or a one off storm type year like 83 or 2016. So far minus the cold week in January it's behaving more like 98. That's why I'm not shocked or complaining and have no control over it anyway 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Models are backing away from the big cold shot. Maybe this will give us a chance. also an Omega block is setting up moving forward beginning next week storm after storm will be riding along this southern stream slow moving and IMO a few will ride up the coast and cold enough air will provide us with the opportunity for frozen precip as HP will be in southern Canada 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I'm starting to doubt a great pattern ahead like many predict. Hopefully the weeklies are correct . I just want 1 huge snowstorm. Another winter failure. Trolling aside, are you thinking of moving? Living in the coast(al plain) is feast or famine.Obviously, there are family and career concerns that outweigh this. It’s been a run similar to the early and late 1990s, and especially after everything seemingly worked out for a decade and a half.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 its coming in 2 weeksIt’s arriving in time for April.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 19 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I have dully noted December 2027 in the "When Will There Be A Real Winter Pattern?" poll The December part makes a lot of sense though, when December sucks usually the rest of the winter sucks too. 1982-83 and 2015-16 were one big storm winters, so they wouldn't really be considered "good" winters anyway. El Nino or not, the next time we have a very good winter, it will have to get going in December. Backend winters are as bad as backend snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 30 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's getting tiring Last winter, the models kept kicking the can down the road. Amazingly, this season, we had 10 days of winter, so I guess anything is possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, NittanyWx said: I think your diagnosis of the forcing here is off. I see this as clear Nino forcing at the expense of the maritime continent, coinciding with +VP200 anomalies maritime continent. You've got about as clean of an eastward propagation in the VP signal as you'd like. If this doesn't work in traditional canonical fashion for more active (potentially snowier) purposes, it will likely be due to the erosion of source region combined with a poor placement/durability of high latitude blocking as a result of several factors discussed over the past few weeks in here. All valid, but not cleanly explained by tropical forcing alone. Right now and for the next week, however, you're getting the cleanest + 850 u-wind anomaly signal we've had so far this Nino with an eastward propagation of VP anomalies and a jet extension in the sub-tropics along with a fairly clean shut off of convection for about a week just west of the dateline (as shown in OLR anomalies too). Wheeler plots aside, those are the typical ingredients of a canonical back half Nino pattern from a tropical forcing/synoptics perspective. So if this doesn't work, I think you'll need to look at factors other than the tropics for why this split flow pattern did not deliver. I've got a few reasons ready and I'm not convinced this is going to offer much, but I don't agree with your assessment of tropical forcing right now. I think you continue to miss the point. Forcing west of the Dateline is a warm pattern for us here in the East. One of the biases exhibited by the models longer range is to weaken convection too quickly in this region. The forcing in the entire area around the WPAC warm pool has greatly surpassed the long range model forecast this winter and most winters since 15-16. This is a long term change which is independent of the El Niño this season. It’s the main reason why NYC is on track for a record 9 warmer than average winters in a row. Beyond the 2nd week of February, it’s still possible the convection can shift further east allowing something resembling a February El Niño pattern as we approach Presidents Day week. But we’ll have to just wait and see. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think you continue to miss the point. Forcing west of the Dateline is a warm pattern for us here in the East. One of the biases exhibited by the models longer range is to weaken convection too quickly in this region. The forcing in the entire area around the WPAC warm pool has greatly surpassed the long range model forecast this winter and most winters since 15-16. This is a long term change which is independent of the El Niño this season. It’s the main reason why NYC is on track for a record 9 warmer than average winters in a row. Beyond the 2nd week of February, it’s still possible the convection can shift further east allowing something resembling a February El Niño pattern as we approach Presidents Day week. But we’ll have to just wait and see. Let's check back in a week and see whether the OLR/VP diagrams back up your claim. Because so far, this has 'rolled forward' as it were. Long term trends also are subject to sub-seasonal variability, so you're essentally boiling this down to a persistence forecast inside the d7 timeframe. I don't agree with that approach right now. Sub-seasonal variability still does occur even with bg warming and longer term signals you're describing persisting. If this was week 2 and this subsidence hadn't rolled forward, think it'd be fair to question whether this identified subsidence pattern ever emerges. But you're now arguing that a very strong +OLR anomaly west of the dateline is being misdiagnosed d 1-7 and therefore arguing more skill than the model inside the d7 window. I'm skeptical of that, but let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: its coming in 2 weeks It’s like when you do home renovations it’s always two weeks away til completion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: It’s like when you do home renovations it’s always two weeks away til completion There’s a difference, eventually those do get complete. now we are running out of time to complete anything here. 6 weeks. First two are now shit. Tick tock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: I think you continue to miss the point. Forcing west of the Dateline is a warm pattern for us here in the East. One of the biases exhibited by the models longer range is to weaken convection too quickly in this region. The forcing in the entire area around the WPAC warm pool has greatly surpassed the long range model forecast this winter and most winters since 15-16. This is a long term change which is independent of the El Niño this season. It’s the main reason why NYC is on track for a record 9 warmer than average winters in a row. Beyond the 2nd week of February, it’s still possible the convection can shift further east allowing something resembling a February El Niño pattern as we approach Presidents Day week. But we’ll have to just wait and see. There's an even bigger picture here. An NOAA scientist just talked about widespread coral bleaching events being connected to this warming and how they are becoming more and more common and how soon enough we will have widespread coral bleaching all across our oceans because of this unnatural warming and how it has and will continue to disrupt marine ecosystems and at an alarmingly accelerated rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 20 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Let's check back in a week and see whether the OLR/VP diagrams back up your claim. Because so far, this has 'rolled forward' as it were. Long term trends also are subject to sub-seasonal variability, so you're essentally boiling this down to a persistence forecast inside the d7 timeframe. I don't agree with that approach right now. Sub-seasonal variability still does occur even with bg warming and longer term signals you're describing persisting. If this was week 2 and this subsidence hadn't rolled forward, think it'd be fair to question whether this identified subsidence pattern ever emerges. But you're now arguing that a very strong +OLR anomaly west of the dateline is being misdiagnosed d 1-7 and therefore arguing more skill than the model inside the d7 window. I'm skeptical of that, but let's see. Just look at how much the Euro monthly struggled with its January forecast issued back in December. It was going with something similar to a stock El Niño 500 composite in January. But instead we got a more Niña-like 500 mb pattern with a much stronger STJ due to the continuing El Niño. But the forcing from the Eastern IO into WPAC was missed. This is a common theme of the weekly and monthly model runs since the 15-16 winter due to the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool. Forecast Verification 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just look at how much the Euro monthly struggled with its January forecast issued back in December. It was going with something similar to a stock El Niño 500 composite in January. But instead we got a more Niña-like 500 mb pattern with a much stronger STJ due to the continuing El Niño. But the forcing from the Eastern IO into WPAC was missed. This is a common theme of the weekly and monthly model runs since the 15-16 winter due to the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool. Forecast Verification what is interesting as how cold the south east has been. That’s a little bit different from the past several years. I was in Florida for a month between December and January and you couldn’t buy warm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Is it really hard to get 6 plus snowstorm ? We use to get those all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, MJO812 said: Is it really hard to get 6 plus snowstorm ? We use to get those all the time. Yes. We'll get one in the next 3 years though 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Below are some charts showing how February has warmed in the New York City area (1991-2020 vs. 1961-1990). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 34 minutes ago, bluewave said: Just look at how much the Euro monthly struggled with its January forecast issued back in December. It was going with something similar to a stock El Niño 500 composite in January. But instead we got a more Niña-like 500 mb pattern with a much stronger STJ due to the continuing El Niño. But the forcing from the Eastern IO into WPAC was missed. This is a common theme of the weekly and monthly model runs since the 15-16 winter due to the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool. Forecast Verification We're talking about very different time horizons. I'm not using a Euro monthly inside d7, I'm not using a Euro weekly inside D7. I am seeing W Pac subsidence inside d7 on most dynamic models though, and I'm also seeing upper level pattern shifts in regions of the tropics I forecast for reflect those changes. I don't think persistence is going to outperform the models inside d7, personally. But we can verify on Feb 5-6 and see whether that's true or not. I suspect the model will win in this Jan 29-Feb 5 window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 18 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: We're talking about very different time horizons. I'm not using a Euro monthly inside d7, I'm not using a Euro weekly inside D7. I am seeing W Pac subsidence inside d7 on most dynamic models though, and I'm also seeing upper level pattern shifts in regions of the tropics I forecast for reflect those changes. I don't think persistence is going to outperform the models inside d7, personally. But we can verify on Feb 5-6 and see whether that's true or not. I suspect the model will win in this Jan 29-Feb 5 window. I was talking about longer range and not inside day 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, NittanyWx said: Let's check back in a week and see whether the OLR/VP diagrams back up your claim. Because so far, this has 'rolled forward' as it were. Long term trends also are subject to sub-seasonal variability, so you're essentally boiling this down to a persistence forecast inside the d7 timeframe. I don't agree with that approach right now. Sub-seasonal variability still does occur even with bg warming and longer term signals you're describing persisting. If this was week 2 and this subsidence hadn't rolled forward, think it'd be fair to question whether this identified subsidence pattern ever emerges. But you're now arguing that a very strong +OLR anomaly west of the dateline is being misdiagnosed d 1-7 and therefore arguing more skill than the model inside the d7 window. I'm skeptical of that, but let's see. What does the "bg" stand for in "bg warming". Google was no help with this question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: Below are some charts showing how February has warmed in the New York City area (1991-2020 vs. 1961-1990). and February in the 80s was pretty warm.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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