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February 2024


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Records:


Highs:

EWR: 65 (1957)
NYC: 64 (1951)
LGA: 65 (1951)

Lows:

EWR: 4 (1979)  end of the records  in this long cold snap
NYC: -1 (1914)
LGA: 8 (2016)


Historical:

 

1784 - Ice floes blocked the Mississippi River at New Orleans, then passed into the Gulf of Mexico. The only other time this occurred was during the "Great Arctic Outbreak" of 1899. (David Ludlum)

1885 - The "Friday the 13th" avalanche at Alva, UT, killed sixteen persons, and left thirteen others buried for twelve hours before being rescued. (David Ludlum)

1889 - It was the coldest morning of record along the Gulf Coast. The temperature dipped to 7 above zero at New Orleans LA and Pensacola FL, and plunged to -1 degree at Mobile AL. The mercury dipped to -2 degrees at Tallahassee, the coldest reading of record for the state of Florida. (David Ludlum)

1905 - Morning lows of -29 degrees at Pond AR, -40 degrees at Lebanon KS, and -40 degrees at Warsaw MO established all-time records for those three states. (The Weather Channel)

 

1905: Freezing temperatures were recorded over the states of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri. Morning lows of 29 degrees below zero at Gravette, Arkansas, 40 below at Lebanon, Kansas, and 40 below at Warsaw, Missouri, established all-time records for those three states.  The low temperature at Vinita, Oklahoma, plummeted to 27 degrees below zero. The temperature would be tied at Watts in January 1930 and Blackwell and Medford in February 2011. The negative 27-degree reading is cold enough to be the 2nd lowest temperature on record in Oklahoma. The coldest is currently 31 degrees below zero, recorded at Nowata on February 10, 2011.

 

1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy rain over central California. Chews Ridge reported nearly eleven inches of rain in 24 hours, and extensive flooding occurred in San Benito County. The Mount Rose ski resort in Nevada experienced a "white-out" with 60 mph winds and 36 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds in the wake of a storm in the northeastern U.S., gusting to 60 mph at Oswego NY, produced six foot snow drifts in northeastern Ohio. High winds in the mountains of Utah, gusting to 106 mph at the Snowbird ski resort, contributed to a forty car pile-up on Interstate 15, near the town of Bluffdale. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain and flash flooding from central Texas to western Pennsylvania. Up to ten inches of rain deluged western Kentucky in two days, with five day totals ranging up to 13.16 inches at Gilbertsville Dam KY. Flooding caused tens of millions of dollars damage, including 18 million dollars damage at Frankfort KY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A slow moving cold front brought heavy snow to Utah, Colorado and Wyoming. Big Horn WY reported 15 inches of snow, and up to 22 inches was reported in Utah. In Colorado, 8 to 12 inches of snow fell over the northwest suburbs of Denver, while 16 to 22 inches was reported in the high mountain elevations west of Fort Collins. Strong winds accompanied the heavy snow, and bitter cold weather followed in its wake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1995: A National Weather Service Survey Team concluded a weak (F1) tornado occurred at the General Motors Desert Proving Grounds facility in Mesa, Arizona. Moderate damage was observed. A roof was damaged, and about 20 vehicles were destroyed and moved around. One car was lifted, moved several feet, and set down inside a roped-off area containing solar exposure equipment. The tornado traveled northeast and lasted about five minutes. The image below is from the February 1995 Storm Data.

 

2000: Late in the day and into the early morning hours of the 14th, severe thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes over southwestern Georgia that killed 19, injured 202, and caused $35 million in damages. An F3 tornado hit southern Camilla, killing 11 people and wounding 175 others in the town.

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Looks like cooler conditions will prevail over the next 10 days for our region, with generally above average temperatures in the west (as indicative of a +PNA/western ridging, and eastern trough). That being said, that doesn't guarantee snow at all. Generally speaking, it indicates a stormier than normal pattern, but the eastern trough looks to flat/positive around the coast. Ideally, we'd want it to be a bit more negatively tilting to support storms strengthening just offshore as opposed to escaping quickly like the one today. Lack of atlantic blocking has been a problem in 2022, 2023 (many other problems with that year), and 2024 (many problems with this year as well), but lack of atlantic blocking around our time for snow doesn't help at all. Only serves to hurt us at this point. 

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While the NYC under 2” snowfall streak has finally ended, Boston continues its under 4” run.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 717 2024-02-12
2 711 2013-02-07
- 711 1987-01-18
3 702 2003-02-06
4 686 1937-12-31
5 674 1974-01-08
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30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While the NYC under 2” snowfall streak has finally ended, Boston continues its under 4” run.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 717 2024-02-12
2 711 2013-02-07
- 711 1987-01-18
3 702 2003-02-06
4 686 1937-12-31
5 674 1974-01-08

Boston got screwed with this one which is weird considering that our northern areas scored big time as when the models indicated this a few days ago, Boston also scored big. When the models indicated the southern trend yesterday, both our northern suburbs and Boston seemed to have lost out. Weird storm.

Edit: Weirdly modeled storm I guess

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27 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Boston got screwed with this one which is weird considering that our northern areas scored big time as when the models indicated this a few days ago, Boston also scored big. When the models indicated the southern trend yesterday, both our northern suburbs and Boston seemed to have lost out. Weird storm.

Edit: Weirdly modeled storm I guess

At least we are doing better than BTV so far this month.

 

 

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Parts of the region saw their biggest snowstorm in nearly two years. Central Park's 3.2" snowfall brought an end to the record 744-day streak without 2" or more daily snowfall. A general 3"-6" of snow fell in New York City. Outside the City, 6"-10" amounts were common with numerous 8"-10" amounts in Rockland County. Orange County saw a number of 12" or above amounts.

In the wake of the storm, it will turn colder for a time. This will not be an especially cold pattern, but it will be noticeably colder than the pattern that defined the first 10 days of the month. It also won't be a long-duration pattern, as the closing days of February could turn unseasonably mild.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around February 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.62°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was not available today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.716 today.

On February 11 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.892 (RMM). The February 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.957 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.1° (2.2° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 39.7°-40.4°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Should Winter 2023-2024 finish with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above, that would be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with such warmth.

 

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1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

Gfs got it also. Just little further south. 

You can see the signature even on the low resolution (relatively speaking in 2024 modeling terms) GFS that expansion of light snow way north.  This system due to the insane jet at 200-250mb is probably going to have an expansive area of snow far from the center if I had to guess 

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37 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You can see the signature even on the low resolution (relatively speaking in 2024 modeling terms) GFS that expansion of light snow way north.  This system due to the insane jet at 200-250mb is probably going to have an expansive area of snow far from the center if I had to guess 

I'll take another 2-4". Looks cold enough too

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5 hours ago, SACRUS said:


Records:


Highs:

EWR: 65 (1957)
NYC: 64 (1951)
LGA: 65 (1951)

Lows:

EWR: 4 (1979)  end of the records  in this long cold snap
NYC: -1 (1914)
LGA: 8 (2016)


Historical:

 

1784 - Ice floes blocked the Mississippi River at New Orleans, then passed into the Gulf of Mexico. The only other time this occurred was during the "Great Arctic Outbreak" of 1899. (David Ludlum)

1885 - The "Friday the 13th" avalanche at Alva, UT, killed sixteen persons, and left thirteen others buried for twelve hours before being rescued. (David Ludlum)

1889 - It was the coldest morning of record along the Gulf Coast. The temperature dipped to 7 above zero at New Orleans LA and Pensacola FL, and plunged to -1 degree at Mobile AL. The mercury dipped to -2 degrees at Tallahassee, the coldest reading of record for the state of Florida. (David Ludlum)

1905 - Morning lows of -29 degrees at Pond AR, -40 degrees at Lebanon KS, and -40 degrees at Warsaw MO established all-time records for those three states. (The Weather Channel)

 

1905: Freezing temperatures were recorded over the states of Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, and Missouri. Morning lows of 29 degrees below zero at Gravette, Arkansas, 40 below at Lebanon, Kansas, and 40 below at Warsaw, Missouri, established all-time records for those three states.  The low temperature at Vinita, Oklahoma, plummeted to 27 degrees below zero. The temperature would be tied at Watts in January 1930 and Blackwell and Medford in February 2011. The negative 27-degree reading is cold enough to be the 2nd lowest temperature on record in Oklahoma. The coldest is currently 31 degrees below zero, recorded at Nowata on February 10, 2011.

 

1987 - A storm in the western U.S. produced heavy rain over central California. Chews Ridge reported nearly eleven inches of rain in 24 hours, and extensive flooding occurred in San Benito County. The Mount Rose ski resort in Nevada experienced a "white-out" with 60 mph winds and 36 inches of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Strong winds in the wake of a storm in the northeastern U.S., gusting to 60 mph at Oswego NY, produced six foot snow drifts in northeastern Ohio. High winds in the mountains of Utah, gusting to 106 mph at the Snowbird ski resort, contributed to a forty car pile-up on Interstate 15, near the town of Bluffdale. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms produced locally heavy rain and flash flooding from central Texas to western Pennsylvania. Up to ten inches of rain deluged western Kentucky in two days, with five day totals ranging up to 13.16 inches at Gilbertsville Dam KY. Flooding caused tens of millions of dollars damage, including 18 million dollars damage at Frankfort KY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A slow moving cold front brought heavy snow to Utah, Colorado and Wyoming. Big Horn WY reported 15 inches of snow, and up to 22 inches was reported in Utah. In Colorado, 8 to 12 inches of snow fell over the northwest suburbs of Denver, while 16 to 22 inches was reported in the high mountain elevations west of Fort Collins. Strong winds accompanied the heavy snow, and bitter cold weather followed in its wake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1995: A National Weather Service Survey Team concluded a weak (F1) tornado occurred at the General Motors Desert Proving Grounds facility in Mesa, Arizona. Moderate damage was observed. A roof was damaged, and about 20 vehicles were destroyed and moved around. One car was lifted, moved several feet, and set down inside a roped-off area containing solar exposure equipment. The tornado traveled northeast and lasted about five minutes. The image below is from the February 1995 Storm Data.

 

2000: Late in the day and into the early morning hours of the 14th, severe thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes over southwestern Georgia that killed 19, injured 202, and caused $35 million in damages. An F3 tornado hit southern Camilla, killing 11 people and wounding 175 others in the town.

wow 1784 was the gift that kept on giving lol

 

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2 hours ago, ILoveWinter said:

Boston got screwed with this one which is weird considering that our northern areas scored big time as when the models indicated this a few days ago, Boston also scored big. When the models indicated the southern trend yesterday, both our northern suburbs and Boston seemed to have lost out. Weird storm.

Edit: Weirdly modeled storm I guess

the east wind ruined it for them, they're too close to the ocean.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Parts of the region saw their biggest snowstorm in nearly two years. Central Park's 3.2" snowfall brought an end to the record 744-day streak without 2" or more daily snowfall. A general 3"-6" of snow fell in New York City. Outside the City, 6"-10" amounts were common with numerous 8"-10" amounts in Rockland County. Orange County saw a number of 12" or above amounts.

In the wake of the storm, it will turn colder for a time. This will not be an especially cold pattern, but it will be noticeably colder than the pattern that defined the first 10 days of the month. It also won't be a long-duration pattern, as the closing days of February could turn unseasonably mild.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around February 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.93°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.62°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was not available today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.716 today.

On February 11 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.892 (RMM). The February 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.957 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.1° (2.2° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 39.7°-40.4°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Should Winter 2023-2024 finish with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above, that would be the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with such warmth.

 

Don when do you see the unseasonably mild pattern coming back?  And dry too?  Around the 24th? And do you see that continuing into March?

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