SACRUS Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Records: Highs: EWR: 66 (1960) NYC: 65 (2009) LGA: 63 (2009) Lows: EWR: -1 (1979) NYC: -2 (1899) LGA: 2 (1979) Historical: 1895: The low temperature was 11 degrees below zero at Moline, Illinois, marking the last of 16 consecutive days on which the low temperature was at or below zero. During the first 11 days of February, Moline's highest temperature was only 13 degrees above zero. Their current average high temperature for early February is in the lower 30s. 1899 - Perhaps the greatest of all arctic outbreaks commenced on this date. The temperature plunged to 61 degrees below zero in Montana. At the same time a "Great Eastern Blizzard" left a blanket of snow from Georgia to New Hampshire. The state of Virginia took the brunt of the storm, with snowfall totals averaging 30 to 40 inches. (David Ludlum) 1983 - The Middle Atlantic Coast States and southern New England were in the midst of a major snowstorm. In Pennsylvania, the storm produced 21 inches at Philadelphia, 24 inches at Harrisburg, and 25 inches at Allentown, establishing record 24 hour totals and single storm totals for those locations. New York City received 22 inches of snow, and 35 inches was reported at Glen Gary, located in the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia. Windsor Locks CT received a record 19 inches of snow in 12 hours. The storm resulted in forty-six deaths, thirty-three of which occurred when a freighter capsized and sank off the Maryland/Virginia coast. Heavy snow was reported from northeastern Georgia to eastern Maine. (10th-12th) (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel) 1983: Called the "Megalopolitan blockbuster snowstorm," this major snowstorm impacted the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. Snowfall up to 25 inches fell at Allentown, Pennsylvania. Snowfall amount of 35 inches occurred in parts of the Blue Ridge Mountains of West Virginia at Glen Cary. Windsor Locks, Connecticut, recorded a record 19 inches in 12 hours. A ship sunk off the Virginia/Maryland coast, killing 33. There were 46 total storm-related fatalities. New 24-hour snowfall records were set in Philadelphia, Harrisburg, Allentown, Pennsylvania, and Hartford, Connecticut. Five inches of snow in one hour was recorded at Allentown and Hartford. 1987 - Denver, CO, reported only their third occurrence of record of a thunderstorm in February. Ten cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Huron SD reported February temperatures averaging 19 degrees above normal. Williston ND reported readings averaging 24 degrees above normal for the month. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Bitter cold air gripped the north central U.S. Morning lows of 35 degrees below zero at Aberdeen SD, Bismarck ND and International Falls MN were records for the date. Bemidji MN was, officially, the cold spot in the nation with a low of 39 degrees below zero, however, a reading of 42 degrees below zero was reported at Gettysburg SD. In the Northern High Plains Region, Baker MT warmed from 27 degrees below zero to 40 above. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - While much of the continental U.S. enjoyed sunshine and seasonable temperatures, a strong weather system over the Hawaiian Islands deluged Honolulu with 2.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A winter storm produced up to ten inches of snow in Vermont, and up to nine inches of snow in Aroostook County of northeastern Maine. A three day snowstorm began to overspread Oregon, and the winter storm produced 29 inches of snow at Bennett Pass. Mild weather continued in the central U.S. La Crosse WI reported a record forty-seven consecutive days with temperatures above normal. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2004 - North Dakota Governor John Hoeven declares a snow emergency as winds gusting over 70 mph along with heavy snow produces low visibilities and drifts up to 20 feet in northwestern North Dakota. Amtrak train service is interrupted in the region. The Weather Doctor 2006 - Snowfall records fell in Philadelphia and Allentown, Pennsylvania, Bridgeport and Hartford, Connecticut, Newark, New Jersey, and Worchester and Boston, Massachusetts. The highest total reported was 30.2 inches at Fairfield, CT. New York City set a record one-day snowfall record of 26.9 inches in Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1983 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2006 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 52 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Snow may be a thing of the past for NYC and Long Island. Category 6 storms but no snow. Lol don't worry, just take a 4 hour drive south to the Delmarva they are above average snowfall for last few years. Heck even coastal North Carolina got hammered one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Soi -40.73 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Soi -40.73 Most overpowering STJ into the Baja and SOCAL to start February since 1998. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Most overpowering STJ into the Baja and SOCAL to start February since 1998. Yeah, and Don referenced "the elephant in the room" before the season began, referring of course to 1998. Unfortunately here we are. Although, the Middle Atlantic has performed much better than us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah, and Don referenced "the elephant in the room" before the season began, referring of course to 1998. Unfortunately here we are. Although, the Middle Atlantic has performed much better than us this year. Through February 10th we have been running a few degrees warmer than 1998. Plus we have had a stronger ridge and weaker trough response over North America. Makes sense with the forcing much further west than 1998. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 10 Missing Count 1 2016-02-10 42.4 0 2 2002-02-10 41.6 0 3 1932-02-10 41.3 0 4 2024-02-10 41.0 0 5 2023-02-10 40.4 0 - 2012-02-10 40.4 0 6 1991-02-10 39.8 0 7 1950-02-10 39.6 2 8 2020-02-10 39.3 0 9 1998-02-10 39.1 0 Stronger ridge and weaker trough than 1998 with forcing much further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 11 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: No surprise. One needs to adjust for climate change. One also has to consider how marine heatwaves can distort patterns e.g., this could be the first strong El Niño event during which the PDO was negative in all three winter months. Ignoring such changes leaves one with a forecasting framework that is obsolete and often useless. Thanks Don, This is true, however, I fear that while we focus on the current anomolies we may not be contemplating future change as well. The one constant in life and weather is chang. 1.) IO temperatures are warming extremely fast. This will be MJO 1,2 and 3. Will this offset forcing in 4,5,6. Or will this provide us with another new setup? 2.) We witnessed the "blob" off the west coast which greatly affected 13 through 15. What caused that and will it happen again? The PAC jet cut the PNA repeatedly the last 2 years, however, what if we see the return off the west coast? 3.) What is causing the Delmarva/Norfolk to continue to receive snow while we do not? Does this current environment favor them? Faster jet=faster flow therefore when it's cold enough storms do not have time to climb the coast (they do not warm and change)? 4.) If the aforementioned is true and the PAC jet is screaming, why are we still seeing very powerful cutters? Why is the fast PAC allowing it cutters? Why not huggers or coastals? 5.) What worked right in 00/01 to allow for a KU in Feb and a borderline KU earlier that December? One would think this is impossible given last 2 years, however it did work out. That is obviously still possible, perhaps more often as well? IMO climate change is more than just "everything is warmer", but rather "increased volatility". Therefore, by nature temperatures from a day to day perspective will be volatile as well, meaning more powerful cold shots (like we just witnessed will the record cold out west) as well as more powerful storms, both tropical and extra tropical. Coastal NC was hammered 2 years ago, perhaps this will also be more common. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, bluewave said: Through February 10th we have been running a few degrees warmer than 1998. Plus we have had a stronger ridge and weaker trough response over North America. Makes sense with the forcing much further west than 1998. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 10 Missing Count 1 2016-02-10 42.4 0 2 2002-02-10 41.6 0 3 1932-02-10 41.3 0 4 2024-02-10 41.0 0 5 2023-02-10 40.4 0 - 2012-02-10 40.4 0 6 1991-02-10 39.8 0 7 1950-02-10 39.6 2 8 2020-02-10 39.3 0 9 1998-02-10 39.1 0 Stronger ridge and weaker trough than 1998 with forcing much further west Thanks, is this difference also why the MA is doing better with snowfall than 1998 this Year? That year we had no hope at all, yet this year they may receive another event next week. Something else caused 1998 to be far less snowy than this year down there. Is the faster flow allowing them to stay on the colder side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks, is this difference also why the MA is doing better with snowfall than 1998 this Year? That year we had no hope at all, yet this year they may receive another event next week. Something else caused 1998 to be far less snowy than this year down there. Is the faster flow allowing them to stay on the colder side? 1998 didn’t have the strong MJO 2-7 response which helped to drive the brief Arctic outbreak to our west back in January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: 1998 didn’t have the strong MJO 2 response which helped to drive the brief Arctic outbreak to our west back in January. Thanks. Looking at the MJO, it looks like we will see more forcing in this location, likely why the MA is favored again for the next storm. Per the snip below looks like forcing is commencing in 1/2 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 @EastonSN+ what is making you think the MA is favored? I see no evidence of this currently 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Don, This is true, however, I fear that while we focus on the current anomolies we may not be contemplating future change as well. The one constant in life and weather is chang. 1.) IO temperatures are warming extremely fast. This will be MJO 1,2 and 3. Will this offset forcing in 4,5,6. Or will this provide us with another new setup? 2.) We witnessed the "blob" off the west coast which greatly affected 13 through 15. What caused that and will it happen again? The PAC jet cut the PNA repeatedly the last 2 years, however, what if we see the return off the west coast? 3.) What is causing the Delmarva/Norfolk to continue to receive snow while we do not? Does this current environment favor them? Faster jet=faster flow therefore when it's cold enough storms do not have time to climb the coast (they do not warm and change)? 4.) If the aforementioned is true and the PAC jet is screaming, why are we still seeing very powerful cutters? Why is the fast PAC allowing it cutters? Why not huggers or coastals? 5.) What worked right in 00/01 to allow for a KU in Feb and a borderline KU earlier that December? One would think this is impossible given last 2 years, however it did work out. That is obviously still possible, perhaps more often as well? IMO climate change is more than just "everything is warmer", but rather "increased volatility". Therefore, by nature temperatures from a day to day perspective will be volatile as well, meaning more powerful cold shots (like we just witnessed will the record cold out west) as well as more powerful storms, both tropical and extra tropical. Coastal NC was hammered 2 years ago, perhaps this will also be more common. I agree. Warming is just one impact of climate change. Climate change is putting a lot more energy into the system. Volatility (extremes) are growing more frequent. Wave lengths and patterns are being distorted. Even the MJO has been altered, as you noted in point 1, leading to more days in the Marine Continent and generally more warmth in parts of North America. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @EastonSN+ what is making you think the MA is favored? I see no evidence of this currently I am taking models verbatim and I do subscribe, sometimes to my detriment like 14/15, that winters do follow a pattern. We need the NS interaction to bring this north. A little tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: I am taking models verbatim and I do subscribe, sometimes to my detriment like 14/15, that winters do follow a pattern. We need the NS interaction to bring this north. A little tricky. 12z gfs is already further north then 06z. We have a ridge off the east coast…suppression isn’t a worry imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Allsnow said: 12z gfs is already further north then 06z. We have a ridge off the east coast…suppression isn’t a worry imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. Warming is just one impact of climate change. Climate change is putting a lot more energy into the system. Volatility (extremes) are growing more frequent. Wave lengths and patterns are being distorted. Even the MJO has been altered, as you noted in point 1, leading to more days in the Marine Continent and generally more warmth in parts of North America. Thanks. Also, phases 1 and 2 are cold for the east and central plains as we witnessed in January. Perhaps this will be more common given the IO temps. I do fear we are losing 8 though. Water temps do have a limit, so regions 1,2 and 3 will likely "catch up", which is why I do believe we will see more record cold shots, albeit perhaps relatively brief in nature. Central plains more favored in general. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This is what I was referring to w/R/t NS interaction. The northern low is further south and west, allowing for the storm to track a bit north. Still possible, however it's a tricky setup. If the N stream low is further north or east, the storm will exit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This is what I was referring to w/R/t NS interaction. The northern low is further south and west, allowing for the storm to track a bit north. Still possible, however it's a tricky setup. If the N stream low is further north or east, the storm will exit further south. Also, as Bluewave has mentioned with the fast PAC jet, faster flow leads to lett time for NS interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Also, as Bluewave has mentioned with the fast PAC jet, faster flow leads to lett time for NS interaction. Lol, Don/Bluewave, I may have just answered my own question as to why the Delmarva/Norfolk are fairing much better to average than us. The faster PAC flow keeping them north of the storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Lol, Don/Bluewave, I may have just answered my own question as to why the Delmarva/Norfolk are fairing much better to average than us. The faster PAC flow keeping them north of the storm track. Compare 12z with 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Compare 12z with 06z Yup, that's why I mentioned that there is more N/S interaction on this run, however need to see that continue and other models to match on. However, if the fast PAC theory is correct the southern low will escape east. This is a good test to the fast PAC theory (i.e. can we still get N/S interaction). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Yup, that's why I mentioned that there is more N/S interaction on this run, however need to see that continue and other models to match on. However, if the fast PAC theory is correct the southern low will escape east. This is a good test to the fast PAC theory (i.e. can we still get N/S interaction). This setup will favor areas to the northeast of the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, Allsnow said: This setup will favor areas to the northeast of the MA I hope so, tired of missing out on everything. However since 00/01 we have not been able to phase anything (not talking cutters). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I hope so, tired of missing out on everything. However since 00/01 we have not been able to phase anything (not talking cutters). It’s tough for record phasers to jackpot NYC. We had March 1993 phase too far SW so the APPS were favored. Nemo phased a little too late in 2013 so Suffolk to New England were favored. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It’s tough for record phasers to jackpot NYC. We had March 1993 phase too far SW so the APPS were favored. Nemo phased a little too late in 2013 so Suffolk to New England were favored. Loved Nemo, I was west of the band yet still got 22 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s tough for record phasers to jackpot NYC. We had March 1993 phase too far SW so the APPS were favored. Nemo phased a little too late in 2013 so Suffolk to New England were favored. was Nemo (I HATE THAT NAME!) a triple phaser? Why is it that triple phasers are much more likely to hit coastal Nova Scotia but down here they cut inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 37 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Loved Nemo, I was west of the band yet still got 22 inches. we got a lot of rain and it changed to snow later, not a big deal in the city or here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 Just now, LibertyBell said: we got a lot of rain and it changed to snow later, not a big deal in the city or here. CPK still ended up with 11.4, not bad but not historic. LIDO BEACH 8.5 930 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER NEW HYDE PARK 8.0 928 AM 2/09 EMERGENCY MANAGER ...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) COUNTY... CENTRAL PARK 11.4 700 AM 2/09 CENTRAL PARK ZOO UPPER WEST SIDE 10.9 730 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER HAMILTON HOUSES 9.0 745 AM 2/09 SKYWARN SPOTTER GREENWICH VILLAGE 7.5 207 AM 2/09 PUBLIC ...ORANGE COUNTY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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