February 2024

[wishcast_hater]

Heavy rain and winds pushing through here.


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[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today was an unseasonably warm day. Parts of the Northeast saw record warmth today. Records included:

Albany: 60° (old record: 53°, 1955)
Burlington: 56° (old record: 46°, 1925 and 2001)
Concord: 60° (old record: 55°, 1876 and 1955)
Hartford: 62° (tied record set in 2023)
Manchester: 62° (old record: 56°, 1955)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 60° (tied record set in 2001 and tied in 2023)
Portland: 54° (old record: 52°, 1955 and 2023)
Poughkeepsie: 59° (old record: 57°, 2023)
Rochester: 58° (old record: 57°, 1881)
Syracuse: 63° (old record: 59°, 1925)

New York City concluded the first 10 days of February with a mean temperature of 42.1°. That was tied with February 1999 as the fourth warmest February 1-10 period on record. Six of the ten warmest such periods have occurred since 2000.

Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases with mean temperatures of 40.0° or above. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, were the February 1-10 temperature to average 40.0° or above, that development could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season, even as a storm could bring some snow to the region Monday night into Tuesday.

The evolution toward a sustained colder pattern will likely begin preceded by the aforementioned storm. This will not be an especially cold pattern, but it will be noticeably colder than the pattern that defined the first 10 days of the month. Rain will likely change to wet snow in Newark and New York City Monday night or early Tuesday morning. The snow could fall at varying intensities. New York City and Newark could pick up 1" of snow. A small possibility exists for up to 3" of slushy snow. Higher accumulations are likely north and west of the cities. Temperatures will likely remain above freezing throughout most or all of the storm in New York City and adjacent areas holding down ratios and snowfall amounts.

Single-digit cold is unlikely in New York City following the pattern change. During February, cases with warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies see such lows at 55% of frequency as cold ENSO Region 1+2 cases during El Niño winters. During the second half of February, just 17% of cases with a PDO- saw single-digit cold during El Niño winters. January saw a strongly negative PDO.   

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around January 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.83°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -39.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.580 today.

On February 8 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.761 (RMM). The February 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.220 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.8° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 39.4°-40.2°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Should Winter 2023-2024 finish with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above, that would be the first time on record that New York City had seen two consecutive winters with such warmth.

 

Don what were the highs at Central Park, JFK and Newark? Did NYC get close to last year's record?  Thanks!

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, North and West said:

Mahomes is fantastic. Brady’s an all-timer. Still, Mahomes is really, really good until he isn’t.


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People are going to argue this like they argue Jordan vs Lebron.  But for those of us who actually saw Jordan play there really is no comparison, nobody but nobody has ever dominated the game the way Jordan did and under much more strenuous conditions too.

 

[donsutherland1]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don what were the highs at Central Park, JFK and Newark? Did NYC get close to last year's record?  Thanks!

 

EWR: 60; JFK: 55; NYC: 60 (missed the record by 1 degree).

[North and West]

People are going to argue this like they argue Jordan vs Lebron.  But for those of us who actually saw Jordan play there really is no comparison, nobody but nobody has ever dominated the game the way Jordan did and under much more strenuous conditions too.
 

Lebron is an all-time great, but Jordan is #1 for the sole reason that he learned against the Celtics, grew up taking a beating from John Salley and Bill Laimbeer and the Pistons, and then kept winning while facing the 1990s Knicks.

Jordan just cannot be compared, IMO. That’s not taking anything away from Lebron’s longevity and greatness.


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[snowman19]

This thread describes this winter and where we are heading from now into March to a tee. Good read:

[RU848789]

16 hours ago, wdrag said:

Don't know but they apply, probably differing snow ratios with applicable qpf for 1 or 3 hour periods during the event along with multiple ensemble surface temps. Complex but good baseline.

I'm still very careful about snow south of I80.  GFS already has above freezing temps aloft at LGA and I have privately mentioned a possible sleet mix to Sussex County for an hour or two. I dont want to get into debates about snowfall rates overcoming above surface freezing temps.  Potential exists but I'd wait til 36 hours our before great enthusiasm. Canadian still all over the place which tells you sensitivity problems to the upper air interactions.  I could be wrong but right now I'm conservative still 1/2-2" CP.  Blessings if it triples that and a hard won model victory for the NYC participants. 

3 days out.  The prob map for 2" or more is only through sunrise Tue. 

Thanks!!  Not trying to be argumentative over the whole accumulation-intensity-surface temp topic - just trying to point out that there are situations where that can apply and this was looking like it could be one - as modeled with very high rates.  I completely get that there are many things that can torpedo that and that the reality is we're likely to get a fair amount less than many of the models are showing at 10:1 given warm surface temps on most models.  

Another question for you since you've been very helpful on the NBM.  Any idea why the NBM snowfall along 95 and SE of there would have co me down from the end of the 19Z NBM map, below, to what should be the beginning of the 01Z map below, when the only 0Z model that should be in that NBM would be the NAM and the NAM is quite snowy for 95 and towards the coast at 0Z (the NAM always comes out first as far as I know).  I would think the NBM for the 0Z suite would start off kind of high or at least higher than the end of the 18Z suite when only adding in a snowy NAM.  Any insights would be appreciated, again. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Lebron is an all-time great, but Jordan is #1 for the sole reason that he learned against the Celtics, grew up taking a beating from John Salley and Bill Laimbeer and the Pistons, and then kept winning while facing the 1990s Knicks.

Jordan just cannot be compared, IMO. That’s not taking anything away from Lebron’s longevity and greatness.


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I think we're privileged to have seen 5 all time greats in those two sports in the last 40 years.  Montana then Brady then Mahomes in football and Jordan then Lebron in basketball.  I ranked Montana higher than Brady because of his perfect superbowl record and having basically thrown four perfect games in the superbowl because he threw no interceptions and faced the greatest defenses of all time under much tougher rules, but I feel like Brady nudged ahead with that last one because he won a superbowl with an entirely new team.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

This thread describes this winter and where we are heading from now into March to a tee. Good read:
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The part about re-examining global teleconnections is really interesting.  It means that analogs no longer have any real value.

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The part about re-examining global teleconnections is really interesting.  It means that analogs no longer have any real value.

No surprise. One needs to adjust for climate change. One also has to consider how marine heatwaves can distort patterns e.g., this could be the first strong El Niño event during which the PDO was negative in all three winter months. Ignoring such changes leaves one with a forecasting framework that is obsolete and often useless.

[wdrag]

8 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks!!  Not trying to be argumentative over the whole accumulation-intensity-surface temp topic - just trying to point out that there are situations where that can apply and this was looking like it could be one - as modeled with very high rates.  I completely get that there are many things that can torpedo that and that the reality is we're likely to get a fair amount less than many of the models are showing at 10:1 given warm surface temps on most models.  

Another question for you since you've been very helpful on the NBM.  Any idea why the NBM snowfall along 95 and SE of there would have co me down from the end of the 19Z NBM map, below, to what should be the beginning of the 01Z map below, when the only 0Z model that should be in that NBM would be the NAM and the NAM is quite snowy for 95 and towards the coast at 0Z (the NAM always comes out first as far as I know).  I would think the NBM for the 0Z suite would start off kind of high or at least higher than the end of the 18Z suite when only adding in a snowy NAM.  Any insights would be appreciated, again. 

No solid insight, except when this runs (19z,01z etc), I dont think it has the latest instantaneous modeling... example 19z cycle.  I doubt that it has the 18z model run, nor the 18z ensemble. 

I was stunned by the sudden upward shift in the 19z NBM yesterday as well as the post of the NWS probs for 4" etc.  It didnt make sense. I can only think it incorporated some of the SREF which was broader snowfall for NJ.  This is where we have to take this stuff with a grain of salt since I don't know exactly the percentages of modeling and statistical temp guidance that drops into each NBM cycle. I'll bet most on here don't know about LAMP stats. 

So... I think something was wrong with the 19-22Z/10 NWS probs for 1,4"  and NBM amount guidance since it radically shifted. 

My confidence in the EPS snowfall forecast on the warm side gradient of the event continues below average... This event or non event will tell us more.  

I see the GEFS +snowdepth change continues meager... if this verified again, then I think everyone has to show more appreciation for this guidance.  Event has yet to occur so I won't badger on my concerns but I'm a Canadian has to have it (not the 10-1 exes on the warm side gradient) and the GEFS +snow depth change has to be used as strong consideration of what we expect. 

[bluewave]

4th warmest winter so far just ahead of last year through the 10th.

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 10	Missing Count
1	2016-02-10	42.4	0
2	2002-02-10	41.6	0
3	1932-02-10	41.3	0
4	2024-02-10	41.0	0
5	2023-02-10	40.4	0
-	2012-02-10	40.4	0
6	1991-02-10	39.8	0
7	1950-02-10	39.6	2
8	2020-02-10	39.3	0
9	1998-02-10	39.1	0
10	1999-02-10	39.0	0

[Allsnow]

Reviewing overnight stuff, next weekend still looks like our best shot. Either Sunday or Tuesday the 20th

[bluewave]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Reviewing overnight stuff, next weekend still looks like our best shot. Either Sunday or Tuesday the 20th

A pretty wide spread between the models as we get a brief -EPO -NAO window before the -EPO reverses after the 25th.

 

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A pretty wide spread between the models as we get a brief -EPO -NAO window before the -EPO reverses after the 25th.

 

Yup, pattern won’t last long so we will need to capitalize inside a brief window. Looks like we might end February on the warm side with ridging in the east. Hopefully an early spring to start March.  Winter looks over after the 25th as the long range models were wrong with blocking and +pna 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup, pattern won’t last long so we will need to capitalize inside a brief window. Looks like we might end February on the warm side with ridging in the east. Hopefully an early spring to start March.  Winter looks over after the 25th as the long range models were wrong with blocking and +pna 

Meanwhile some are still taunting a good pattern ahead.  That would stink if winter would be over. Who wants mild weather this early ?

[Allsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Meanwhile some are still taunting a good pattern ahead.  That would stink if winter would be over. Who wants mild weather this early ?

The good pattern isn’t coming to end the month. MJO killed that opportunity. 

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup, pattern won’t last long so we will need to capitalize inside a brief window. Looks like we might end February on the warm side with ridging in the east. Hopefully an early spring to start March.  Winter looks over after the 25th as the long range models were wrong with blocking and +pna 

I am hoping the EPS is more correct with its stronger transient Rockies ridge which would allow the 2nd system to potentially amplify closer to the coast when colder air briefly becomes available.

 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I am hoping the EPS is more correct with its stronger transient Rockies ridge which would allow the 2nd system to potentially amplify closer to the coast when colder air briefly becomes available.

 

Hopefully, before the pattern breaks down 

[NEG NAO]

40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Meanwhile some are still taunting a good pattern ahead.  That would stink if winter would be over. Who wants mild weather this early ?

Many well known METS had a humbling experience this winter season - next winter should only issue winter outlooks that go out 1 month max........

[donsutherland1]

Week ahead numbers:

There will be a large temperature range between Boston and New York City. Both Boston and New York City have high probabilities of seeing at least some snow. Boston could see a significant (6"+) snowfall.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Many well known METS had a humbling experience this winter season - next winter should only issue winter outlooks that go out 1 month max........

Next winter will be easy because it’s a strong Nina. Mild and snowless 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Next winter will be easy because it’s a strong Nina. Mild and snowless 

really ? they won't take the chance of forecasting that..........

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Define "some"

Measurable. My thinking for NYC is about an inch. But we'll see where things are later today.

[SBUWX23]

Snow may be a thing of the past for NYC and Long Island. Category 6 storms but no snow. 

[North and West]

Many well known METS had a humbling experience this winter season - next winter should only issue winter outlooks that go out 1 month max........

I agree with this. There’s a butterfly effect that no one can correctly forecast more than a few weeks in advance. If you’re off by half a degree somewhere off of Greenland or the Seychelles, the variance inevitably grows larger over time, throwing a forecast into disarray.

Let’s be real, a lot of long term forecasts are educated guesses. Doesn’t mean they’re bad or have wrong processes that went into them, but there are just some things we can’t know or control.


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[North and West]

Snow may be a thing of the past for NYC and Long Island. Category 6 storms but no snow. 

I assume that’s sarcasm.


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[Brasiluvsnow]

Maybe thats what we need heading towards next winter which is LOW expectations going in and people predicting little IF any snow and then for Mother Nature to rock all our worlds and bury us with several snowstorms so that people stay humble,,,,,yeah thats the ticket

[WX-PA]

15 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Next winter will be easy because it’s a strong Nina. Mild and snowless 

Nina's actually can give us our best winters.66-67,95-96,10-11..This year was easy because super nino's ALWAYS give us what we are experiencing. No shock to me this winter ended up like this. When your #! analog is 97-98 what can you say?

[SACRUS]

 

41 and cloudy.  60 yesterday but stayed mostly cloudy.  low 50s today. Colder overall 2/13 - 2/23, longer range models dig the trough in the 2/19 - 2/21 period so perhaps the next shot at snow beyond this coming Tuesday's mix/rain.  Beyond there the month s being set to close warmer as we move to march.