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Just now, SI Mailman said:

I’m holding off on buying tickets to the Rangers game at MetLife next Sunday because they won’t play if it’s a blizzard or if there are p-type issues

confidence is growing for a storm next weekend - start a Presidents Day Weekend Storm thread.....

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Multiple EPS runs have now shown the EPO going positive just after the 20th of February. That wasn't the case previously and that situation bears watching. It could merely mean that the overall pattern is not very cold, but not necessarily warm through the remainder of the month. But there would likely be a few warm days popping up.

I didn't see the upcoming pattern change as bringing severe cold to the region, so a signal for less cold isn't all that surprising. For now, I'll defer on whether this development means that the overall attempt at a sustained colder period will wind up failing.

The 12z GFS with its persistent warmer than normal days in the extended range highlights a potential risk. Over the past 90 days, the ECMWF and EPS have had a cold bias while the GFS and GEFS have had a warm bias. Were the ECMWF or EPS to suddenly move into agreement toward a more sustained mild period, that would be noteworthy.

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2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Heres the PD3 rainer:  this will go over the top of NYC with that high position and congrats buffalo.

 

image.thumb.png.103c0a4713edda30c10790dc5c8e0697.png

Today's Euro has cold air in place with the storm missing well to the south. Long way to go figure out what's gonna happen, but it looks like our best potential so far this winter. 

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11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Today's Euro has cold air in place with the storm missing well to the south. Long way to go figure out what's gonna happen, but it looks like our best potential so far this winter. 

Lots going on for the next weekend. Don’t fear suppression is my only statement at this time 

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13 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Today's Euro has cold air in place with the storm missing well to the south. Long way to go figure out what's gonna happen, but it looks like our best potential so far this winter. 

It eventually comes up but it's a crazy blocking period on euro.

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2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Lots going on for the next weekend. Don’t fear suppression is my only statement at this time 

Agree

I should have known better. NAO is not even that deeply negative. 

 

That storm is coming up.

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4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I don't know how we can do worse than 4 above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. We had already 1 in 6 if we include this year. Also, the 90s only had 2 years above average in that 10 year span.

We are going to need to see some improvements during the rest of the 2020s for NYC to stay out of the cardinal decade snowfall basement since the 1950s.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 6.0 0.1 T 13.2
2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 0.0 M M 2.3
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.3 1.1 5.3 12.9 11.8 6.0 0.6 37.9
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4
2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1
2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4
2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T T 6.6 7.2 10.1 3.5 0.5 28.0
2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6
2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9
2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4
2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0
2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0
2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6
2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3
2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5
2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0
1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 0.8 3.0 6.1 8.7 5.7 0.1 24.4
1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7
1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5
1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0
1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6
1994-1995 0.0 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8
1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4
1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5
1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6
1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9
1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.1 2.3 7.9 5.4 3.0 1.0 19.7
1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1
1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1
1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1
1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0
1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1
1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4
1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2
1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6
1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4
1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.3 2.0 8.0 9.9 2.3 0.1 22.5
1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4
1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7
1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5
1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3
1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1
1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5
1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8
1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9
1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5
1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.4 8.3 7.1 10.1 6.1 0.1 32.0
1968-1969 0.0 T 7.0 1.0 16.6 5.6 0.0 30.2
1967-1968 0.0 3.2 5.5 3.6 1.1 6.1 0.0 19.5
1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5
1965-1966 T 0.0 T 11.6 9.8 T 0.0 21.4
1964-1965 0.0 0.0 3.1 14.8 2.5 2.8 1.2 24.4
1963-1964 0.0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 44.7
1962-1963 T T 4.5 5.3 3.7 2.8 T 16.3
1961-1962 0.0 T 7.7 0.6 9.6 0.2 T 18.1
1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7
1959-1960 0.0 0.5 15.8 2.5 1.9 18.5 0.0 39.2


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.1 0.5 3.3 4.8 4.0 6.2 1.0 19.9
1958-1959 0.0 T 3.8 1.5 0.4 6.7 0.6 13.0
1957-1958 0.0 T 8.7 9.2 10.7 15.9 0.2 44.7
1956-1957 0.0 T 0.9 8.9 7.0 2.6 2.5 21.9
1955-1956 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.2 2.7 21.1 4.2 33.5
1954-1955 0.0 T 0.1 2.6 5.2 3.6 0.0 11.5
1953-1954 0.0 2.2 T 12.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 15.8
1952-1953 0.5 1.7 7.5 4.1 0.4 0.9 T 15.1
1951-1952 0.0 T 3.3 6.2 2.8 7.4 0.0 19.7
1950-1951 0.0 T 3.8 0.9 1.9 2.7 0.0 9.3
1949-1950 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 8.5 1.4 1.9 14.0
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18 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are going to need to see some improvements during the rest of the 2020s for NYC to stay out of the decadal snowfall basement since the 1950s.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 6.0 0.1 T 13.2
2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 0.0 M M 2.3
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.3 1.1 5.3 12.9 11.8 6.0 0.6 37.9
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4
2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1
2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4
2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T T 6.6 7.2 10.1 3.5 0.5 28.0
2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6
2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9
2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4
2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0
2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0
2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6
2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3
2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5
2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0
1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 0.8 3.0 6.1 8.7 5.7 0.1 24.4
1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7
1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5
1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0
1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6
1994-1995 0.0 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8
1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4
1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5
1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6
1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9
1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.1 2.3 7.9 5.4 3.0 1.0 19.7
1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1
1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1
1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1
1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0
1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1
1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4
1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2
1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6
1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4
1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.3 2.0 8.0 9.9 2.3 0.1 22.5
1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4
1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7
1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5
1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3
1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1
1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5
1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8
1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9
1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5
1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.4 8.3 7.1 10.1 6.1 0.1 32.0
1968-1969 0.0 T 7.0 1.0 16.6 5.6 0.0 30.2
1967-1968 0.0 3.2 5.5 3.6 1.1 6.1 0.0 19.5
1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5
1965-1966 T 0.0 T 11.6 9.8 T 0.0 21.4
1964-1965 0.0 0.0 3.1 14.8 2.5 2.8 1.2 24.4
1963-1964 0.0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 44.7
1962-1963 T T 4.5 5.3 3.7 2.8 T 16.3
1961-1962 0.0 T 7.7 0.6 9.6 0.2 T 18.1
1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7
1959-1960 0.0 0.5 15.8 2.5 1.9 18.5 0.0 39.2


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.1 0.5 3.3 4.8 4.0 6.2 1.0 19.9
1958-1959 0.0 T 3.8 1.5 0.4 6.7 0.6 13.0
1957-1958 0.0 T 8.7 9.2 10.7 15.9 0.2 44.7
1956-1957 0.0 T 0.9 8.9 7.0 2.6 2.5 21.9
1955-1956 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.2 2.7 21.1 4.2 33.5
1954-1955 0.0 T 0.1 2.6 5.2 3.6 0.0 11.5
1953-1954 0.0 2.2 T 12.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 15.8
1952-1953 0.5 1.7 7.5 4.1 0.4 0.9 T 15.1
1951-1952 0.0 T 3.3 6.2 2.8 7.4 0.0 19.7
1950-1951 0.0 T 3.8 0.9 1.9 2.7 0.0 9.3
1949-1950 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 8.5 1.4 1.9 14.0

NYC has never averaged less than 20 inches per year per decade (rounded to the nearest inch) in its entire recorded history has it, Chris?

Also let's keep in mind our totals now are a bit inflated compared to prior to 2000 because of measurement technique changes.

But perhaps this is balanced out by inconsistent measuring of snowfall at Central Park lol.

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Today's Euro has cold air in place with the storm missing well to the south. Long way to go figure out what's gonna happen, but it looks like our best potential so far this winter. 

Why would it be different this time? If they’ve recently trended north, why wouldn’t this one?

It’s like until someone other than Brady can beat Mahomes, I’m going to favor Mahomes.


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3 minutes ago, North and West said:


Why would it be different this time? If they’ve recently trended north, why wouldn’t this one?

It’s like until someone other than Brady can beat Mahomes, I’m going to favor Mahomes.


.

It's why Mahomes can never be the GOAT though.

Head to head Brady will always be 2-0, and at the tail end of his career too.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

NYC has never averaged less than 20 inches per year per decade (rounded to the nearest inch) in its entire recorded history has it, Chris?

Also let's keep in mind our totals now are a bit inflated compared to prior to 2000 because of measurement technique changes.

But perhaps this is balanced out by inconsistent measuring of snowfall at Central Park lol.

The lowest for any 10 year period was 18.8” from 83-84 to 92-93. 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 0.6 2.1 6.8 5.2 4.1 0.1 18.8
1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5
1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6
1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9
1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4
1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1
1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1
1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1
1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0
1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1
1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4

 

 

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The lowest for any 10 year period was 18.8” from 83-84 to 92-93. 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 0.6 2.1 6.8 5.2 4.1 0.1 18.8
1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5
1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6
1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9
1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4
1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1
1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1
1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1
1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0
1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1
1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4

 

 

Thanks Chris-- it's crazy to think about, but even with how horrible that period was, the last 2 years have been an order of magnitude worse than ANY of those years.  There was only one season in that set that had less than a foot of snow and even that season had nearly twice the amount of snowfall of the last two years combined!

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Today was an unseasonably warm day. Parts of the Northeast saw record warmth today. Records included:

Albany: 60° (old record: 53°, 1955)
Burlington: 56° (old record: 46°, 1925 and 2001)
Concord: 60° (old record: 55°, 1876 and 1955)
Hartford: 62° (tied record set in 2023)
Manchester: 62° (old record: 56°, 1955)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 60° (tied record set in 2001 and tied in 2023)
Portland: 54° (old record: 52°, 1955 and 2023)
Poughkeepsie: 59° (old record: 57°, 2023)
Rochester: 58° (old record: 57°, 1881)
Syracuse: 63° (old record: 59°, 1925)

New York City concluded the first 10 days of February with a mean temperature of 42.1°. That was tied with February 1999 as the fourth warmest February 1-10 period on record. Six of the ten warmest such periods have occurred since 2000.

Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases with mean temperatures of 40.0° or above. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, were the February 1-10 temperature to average 40.0° or above, that development could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season, even as a storm could bring some snow to the region Monday night into Tuesday.

The evolution toward a sustained colder pattern will likely begin preceded by the aforementioned storm. This will not be an especially cold pattern, but it will be noticeably colder than the pattern that defined the first 10 days of the month. Rain will likely change to wet snow in Newark and New York City Monday night or early Tuesday morning. The snow could fall at varying intensities. New York City and Newark could pick up 1" of snow. A small possibility exists for up to 3" of slushy snow. Higher accumulations are likely north and west of the cities. Temperatures will likely remain above freezing throughout most or all of the storm in New York City and adjacent areas holding down ratios and snowfall amounts.

Single-digit cold is unlikely in New York City following the pattern change. During February, cases with warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies see such lows at 55% of frequency as cold ENSO Region 1+2 cases during El Niño winters. During the second half of February, just 17% of cases with a PDO- saw single-digit cold during El Niño winters. January saw a strongly negative PDO.   

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around January 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.83°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -39.53 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.580 today.

On February 8 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.761 (RMM). The February 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.220 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.8° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 39.4°-40.2°. That would rank the current winter among the ten warmest on record in New York City. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Should Winter 2023-2024 finish with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above, that would be the first time on record that New York City had seen two consecutive winters with such warmth.

 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are going to need to see some improvements during the rest of the 2020s for NYC to stay out of the cardinal decade snowfall basement since the 1950s.

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 T 2.6 4.4 6.0 0.1 T 13.2
2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 0.0 M M 2.3
2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3
2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9
2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6
2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.3 1.1 5.3 12.9 11.8 6.0 0.6 37.9
2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5
2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9
2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2
2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8
2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3
2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4
2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1
2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4
2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9
2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T T 6.6 7.2 10.1 3.5 0.5 28.0
2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6
2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9
2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4
2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0
2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0
2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6
2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3
2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5
2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0
1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.0 0.8 3.0 6.1 8.7 5.7 0.1 24.4
1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7
1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5
1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0
1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6
1994-1995 0.0 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8
1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4
1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5
1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6
1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9
1989-1990 0.0 4.7 1.4 1.8 1.8 3.1 0.6 13.4


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.1 2.3 7.9 5.4 3.0 1.0 19.7
1988-1989 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.0 0.3 2.5 0.0 8.1
1987-1988 0.0 1.1 2.6 13.9 1.5 T 0.0 19.1
1986-1987 0.0 T 0.6 13.6 7.0 1.9 0.0 23.1
1985-1986 0.0 T 0.9 2.2 9.9 T T 13.0
1984-1985 0.0 T 5.5 8.4 10.0 0.2 T 24.1
1983-1984 0.0 T 1.6 11.7 0.2 11.9 0.0 25.4
1982-1983 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.9 21.5 T 0.8 27.2
1981-1982 0.0 0.0 2.1 11.8 0.4 0.7 9.6 24.6
1980-1981 0.0 T 2.8 8.0 T 8.6 0.0 19.4
1979-1980 T 0.0 3.5 2.0 2.7 4.6 T 12.8


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.3 2.0 8.0 9.9 2.3 0.1 22.5
1978-1979 0.0 2.2 0.5 6.6 20.1 T T 29.4
1977-1978 0.0 0.2 0.4 20.3 23.0 6.8 T 50.7
1976-1977 0.0 T 5.1 13.0 5.8 0.6 T 24.5
1975-1976 0.0 T 2.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 T 17.3
1974-1975 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0 10.6 0.3 T 13.1
1973-1974 0.0 0.0 2.8 7.8 9.4 3.2 0.3 23.5
1972-1973 T T T 1.8 0.8 0.2 T 2.8
1971-1972 0.0 T T 2.8 17.8 2.3 T 22.9
1970-1971 0.0 0.0 2.4 11.4 T 1.3 0.4 15.5
1969-1970 0.0 T 6.8 8.4 6.4 4.0 T 25.6


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean T 0.4 8.3 7.1 10.1 6.1 0.1 32.0
1968-1969 0.0 T 7.0 1.0 16.6 5.6 0.0 30.2
1967-1968 0.0 3.2 5.5 3.6 1.1 6.1 0.0 19.5
1966-1967 0.0 0.0 9.1 1.4 23.6 17.4 T 51.5
1965-1966 T 0.0 T 11.6 9.8 T 0.0 21.4
1964-1965 0.0 0.0 3.1 14.8 2.5 2.8 1.2 24.4
1963-1964 0.0 T 11.3 13.3 14.1 6.0 T 44.7
1962-1963 T T 4.5 5.3 3.7 2.8 T 16.3
1961-1962 0.0 T 7.7 0.6 9.6 0.2 T 18.1
1960-1961 T 0.0 18.6 16.7 18.2 1.2 T 54.7
1959-1960 0.0 0.5 15.8 2.5 1.9 18.5 0.0 39.2


 

Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Season
Mean 0.1 0.5 3.3 4.8 4.0 6.2 1.0 19.9
1958-1959 0.0 T 3.8 1.5 0.4 6.7 0.6 13.0
1957-1958 0.0 T 8.7 9.2 10.7 15.9 0.2 44.7
1956-1957 0.0 T 0.9 8.9 7.0 2.6 2.5 21.9
1955-1956 0.0 1.0 3.3 1.2 2.7 21.1 4.2 33.5
1954-1955 0.0 T 0.1 2.6 5.2 3.6 0.0 11.5
1953-1954 0.0 2.2 T 12.7 0.5 0.1 0.3 15.8
1952-1953 0.5 1.7 7.5 4.1 0.4 0.9 T 15.1
1951-1952 0.0 T 3.3 6.2 2.8 7.4 0.0 19.7
1950-1951 0.0 T 3.8 0.9 1.9 2.7 0.0 9.3
1949-1950 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 8.5 1.4 1.9 14.0

I always take decadal stats from 0, i.e. 00/01, 10/11, 20/21, which would put this decade at 15.275. still bad but a bit better.

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