Brian5671 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 46 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: no one has properly explained why the WPAC is so much warmer than the EPAC? what makes that part of the Pacific so different from the rest? The same could be said about the NW Atlantic-it has warmed much faster than almost anywhere else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 The record high for NYC today is 61° and it was only set last year. Temperatures should get very close to 60° today. 2/10 61 in 2023 61 in 2001 61 in 1990 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Only clouds preventing widespred records. 45 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Records: Highs: EWR: 63 (1990) NYC: 61 (2023) LGA: 60 (2023) Lows: EWR:-4 (1934) NYC: -6 (1899) LGA: 4 (1979) Historical: 1899 - The temperature at Monterey plunged to 29 degrees below zero, establishing record for the state of Virginia. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1921 - Gardner, Georgia, was devastated by a massive, estimated F4 tornado that caused an entire small town section to disappear. The tornado killed an estimated 31 people and injured 100. 1959 - St. Louis, Missouri, was hit by a massive F4 tornado that killed 21 and injured 345. Over 2000 buildings were damaged or destroyed, including the St. Louis Arena. 1973 - A major snowstorm struck the southeastern U.S. It produced as much as 18 inches in Georgia, and up to two feet of snow in South Carolina. (David Ludlum) 1978 - As much as eight inches of rain drenched southern California resulting in widespread flooding and mudslides. The heavy rainfall produced a wall of water which ripped through the mountain resort community of Hidden Springs drowning at least thirteen persons. The storm was one of the most destructive of record causing fifty million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1981 - A morning tornado at Bay Minette, AL, struck the local middle school severely damaging the gymnasium. 62 people were injured, 44 of whom were students. 1982 - Bismarck, ND, experienced its 45th consecutive day of subzero temperature readings which tied the previous record long string of subzero daily lows ending on the same date in 1937. (David Ludlum) 1987 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. produced heavy snow in southeastern Maine. Grand Falls and Woodland received 15 inches, mainly during the early morning hours, while most of the rest of the state did not even see a flake of snow. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Bitter cold arctic air gripped the north central U.S. International Falls MN was the cold spot in the nation with a low of 35 degrees below zero. Record warm readings were reported in southern California, with highs of 78 at San Francisco and 88 at Los Angeles. San Juan Capistrano CA was the hot spot in the nation with a high of 92 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - For the first time all month winter relaxed its grip on the nation. The temperature at Brownsville TX warmed above 60 degrees for the first time in six days, ending their second longest such cold spell of record. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front continued to produce severe weather across the southeastern U.S. through the morning hours and into the late afternoon. There were a total of twenty-nine tornadoes in twenty-nine hours, and 245 reports of large hail or damaging winds. Pre-dawn thunderstorms produced high winds which injured at least seventy persons in Alabama and Georgia, and caused more than twelve million dollars property damage. A tornado at Austell GA prior to daybreak injured two persons and caused two million dollars damage. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2010 - A second major snowstorm, dubbed Snoverkill and Snowmaggedon 2.0, further buries the Nation's Capital with 10.8 inches of new snow. Schools, businesses and even parts of the Federal government are shut down by blizzard conditions. The city now has a deeper snowpack, 28 inches, than the 20 inches in Anchorage, AK, or 27 inches in Marquette, MI. 2011 - The coldest day in Oklahoma history sees the temperature plunge to -31°F at Nowata, OK. A US National Weather Service station at Bartlesville recorded a reading of -28°F. Both locations break the previous low temperature mark of -27°F set in 1905 and tied in 1930. The Weather Doctor 2017: An atmospheric phenomena know as "moonbow" was seen in the Seattle area. 2017 - Denver saw their all-time warmest temperature in February with a reading of 79 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Penal Colony?Rura Penthe.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Daylight at about 10H:27M roughly equivalent to October 31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Pattern goes back to Nina after the 24th.. We have a week to get something before it’s over I don't understand the pessimism on the forum this morning. The last window was 1 to 2 weeks, so why was anyone thinking longer? Getting the window to the 24th is great! Take a look below, it will take a while to get through phases 1 and 2. I don't think 3 is that bad either. The warm waters in the IO will help us here. Also, again, we have left the 55/69 and 00/18 background state with a favorable PAC where it seemed it always worked out. Now we are entering a pre 55, 70/99 background state where we will be frustrated more often than not. Please keep in mind Central Park had only 4 above average snowfall winters in 30 years 70 through 99. CPK had 1 above average snowfall season in last 6 if we already include this season. Basically on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The climate models aren’t good enough to answer the question. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100011 I just saw that climate scientists are worried because about 40% of the jump in warmth this year can't be explained-- even after accounting for the strong el nino and the regular increase of 0.2C per decade. For some reason we saw a 25x increase in just one year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Gfs brought back PD3 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: I don't understand the pessimism on the forum this morning. The last window was 1 to 2 weeks, so why was anyone thinking longer? Getting the window to the 24th is great! Take a look below, it will take a while to get through phases 1 and 2. I don't think 3 is that bad either. The warm waters in the IO will help us here. Also, again, we have left the 55/69 and 00/18 background state with a favorable PAC where it seemed it always worked out. Now we are entering a pre 55, 70/99 background state where we will be frustrated more often than not. Please keep in mind Central Park had only 4 above average snowfall winters in 30 years 70 through 99. CPK had 1 above average snowfall season in last 6 if we already include this season. Basically on track. Okay so let's go with the idea that this is cyclic and we are going to see a repeat of the 70s through the 80s. But if this is cyclic then we should have seen something like the 70s through the 80s before. But we didn't-- those two decades (let's forget the 90s they were near normal snowfall wise, let's just stick with average snowfall)-- really stick out for being the lowest on record in the entire history of record keeping at Central Park. Pre 55 was pretty good for snowfall, certainly MUCH better than the 70s and 80s, we had some of our snowiest and coldest years in the 30s and 40s (and yes also some of our mildest in the 30s.) Now if we say it's a combo of cyclic AND climate change, then it makes more sense, because that would explain why the 70s and 80s were so much worse than the previous snowfall minimal decades. But that would also mean that what we're now entering will probably be worse than the 70s and 80s were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs brought back PD3 CMC has the threat next weekend too. At least we have another possibility if Tuesday fails. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: CMC has the threat next weekend too. At least we have another possibility if Tuesday fails. Pattern is less suppressive then originally forecasted. That window has lots of life for the coast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: The same could be said about the NW Atlantic-it has warmed much faster than almost anywhere else Okay so here's an idea, if it's the western parts of the oceans that are warming more rapidly maybe it's because the continents are warming more quickly and because the general air circulation pattern is west to east, it would cause the heat to transfer from the warming continents to the western part of the oceans first? But then we have to deal with the effects of upwelling.... This is complicated lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Cold air unloads again on gfs with alot of blocking 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Okay so let's go with the idea that this is cyclic and we are going to see a repeat of the 70s through the 80s. But if this is cyclic then we should have seen something like the 70s through the 80s before. But we didn't-- those two decades (let's forget the 90s they were near normal snowfall wise, let's just stick with average snowfall)-- really stick out for being the lowest on record in the entire history of record keeping at Central Park. Pre 55 was pretty good for snowfall, certainly MUCH better than the 70s and 80s, we had some of our snowiest and coldest years in the 30s and 40s (and yes also some of our mildest in the 30s.) Now if we say it's a combo of cyclic AND climate change, then it makes more sense, because that would explain why the 70s and 80s were so much worse than the previous snowfall minimal decades. But that would also mean that what we're now entering will probably be worse than the 70s and 80s were. I don't know how we can do worse than 4 above average snowfall seasons in 30 years. We had already 1 in 6 if we include this year. Also, the 90s only had 2 years above average in that 10 year span. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 So much for the dry pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: So much for the dry pattern Yeah, much better chance of P-Type issues rather than outright suppression. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Yeah, much better chance of P-Type issues rather than outright suppression. Or how many mostly snow with mjo going into 8? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Or how many mostly snow with mjo going into 8? It’s not a pure MJO 8 since convection never really goes away near and west to the Dateline. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, much better chance of P-Type issues rather than outright suppression. Hopefully we get something before the pattern breaks down late month. Once the pac jet takes over it will be lights over for winter 23/24 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cold air unloads again on gfs with alot of blocking when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Allsnow said: Hopefully we get something before the pattern breaks down late month do you still think the pattern breaks down by the 24th or will the SSW keep it going to the end of the month or even first week of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It’s not a pure MJO 8 since convection never really goes away west to the Dateline. Given the IO temps, I think higher amplitude in phases 1,2 and 3 are our best opportunity. Yeah phase 8 will be weak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Hopefully we get something before the pattern breaks down late month It seems like the forcing further west than forecast is helping to pop these transient Southeast ridges which reduce the suppression risk. But at the same time it introduces P-Type issues and milder temperatures. We would probably need a real thread the needle scenario before the month is out for a start to finish all snow with temperatures not rising much above freezing to maximize accumulation potential. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, bluewave said: It seems like the forcing further west than forecast is helping to pop these transient Southeast ridges which reduce the suppression risk. But at the same time it introduces P-Type issues. We would probably need a real thread the needle scenario before the month is out for a start to finish all snow with temperatures not rising much above freezing to maximize accumulation potential. Wouldn't shorter wavelengths help post 15th? Bowling ball lows. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Hopefully we get something before the pattern breaks down late month. Once the pac jet takes over it will be lights over for winter 23/24 If it even breaks down. Mjo looks like it will be going into cod. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: It seems like the forcing further west than forecast is helping to pop these transient Southeast ridges which reduce the suppression risk. But at the same time it introduces P-Type issues and milder temperatures. We would probably need a real thread the needle scenario before the month is out for a start to finish all snow with temperatures not rising much above freezing to maximize accumulation potential. So you are saying that you don't like anything going forward ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If it even breaks down. Mjo looks like it will be going into cod. COD could be doable. If it pops out into 4 then it's going to be rough sailing. The Jan pop into 4-5-6 at high amplitude gave us this 3 week nationwide torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, Brian5671 said: COD could be doable. If it pops out into 4 then it's going to be rough sailing. The Jan pop into 4-5-6 at high amplitude gave us this 3 week nationwide torch It's going to go through 1,2 and 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Just now, EastonSN+ said: It's going to go through 1,2 and 3. It's been hard to get that vaunted 8-1-2 run so I'm a bit skeptical right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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