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February 2024


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Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

he literally isn't worried. what are you talking about

1733776932_Screenshot2024-02-09135402.thumb.png.e34844b0341591c153b713dc41ec0579.png

That doesn't go to say that he isn't somewhat worried since he alluded that next weeks storm would have been better for us if it was a cutter. 

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That doesn't go to say that he isn't somewhat worried since he alluded that next weeks storm would have been better for us if it was a cutter. 

the problem is that a walmart pattern might not cut it given the crappy background state of this "winter" or shall I say extended autumn.

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14 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Presidents’ Day weekend. But we will have a short window to score something. If not, it’s over with the pac taking over 

Yeah President's Weekend continues to look like our best shot at seeing something significant this winter. Cold air in place with Euro showing a storm going to our south. With late February not looking as good now, we really need the period from early next week to early the following week to work out. Tuesday's storm looks like only a very slim chance of working out for our area (at least it's a chance), but there's reason to be more optimistic about President's Day Weekend. 

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5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

the problem is that a walmart pattern might not cut it given the crappy background state of this "winter" or shall I say extended autumn.

walmart version of a top tier pattern. he still says it's very good. i don't get why his thoughts are being misinterpreted so much

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6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

walmart version of a top tier pattern. he still says it's very good. i don't get why his thoughts are being misinterpreted so much

Given the background warmth this year color me skeptical.  NYC is plus +6, +3.5 and +5 for the first 9 days of Feb.  Snowcover at a record low nationwide as well as Great Lake ice.     It is what it is.    Going to get outside this weekend and enjoy the spring preview....

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Again, and this can be said numerous times over. When winter is almost non-existent for most of the nation, it's harder for there to be any sustained cold, let alone snow, over here in NYC and for many in the region. The source airmass continues to be horrible, and two PAC extensions (one during December), and one during late jan- mid feb, are arguable the worst times to have torches across CONUS. That's why snowpack is near record low, and why almost no where outside of mountains has seen significant snowfall this winter (outside of a brief pattern in early-mid January). Until that changes, there's not much to separate 2024 from joining the ranks of 2012, 2020, 2023 as ratter winters. 

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15 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Again, and this can be said numerous times over. When winter is almost non-existent for most of the nation, it's harder for there to be any sustained cold, let alone snow, over here in NYC and for many in the region. The source airmass continues to be horrible, and two PAC extensions (one during December), and one during late jan- mid feb, are arguable the worst times to have torches across CONUS. That's why snowpack is near record low, and why almost no where outside of mountains has seen significant snowfall this winter (outside of a brief pattern in early-mid January). Until that changes, there's not much to separate 2024 from joining the ranks of 2012, 2020, 2023 as ratter winters. 

add 1997-98, 2001-02 and a few others to this list too.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, CooL said:

This might be my first post in over a decade on here lol I don’t understand the doom and gloom. Pattern will be favorable for multiple storms through march 

Some are saying late Feb looks less than stellar now-thoughts?

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30 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow CooL in the house 

Yeah, nice to see him.  Everyone here seems to know exactly what's going to happen weeks ahead of time.  It's amazing!  The whole place is like a funeral all the time.  Like a bunch of old people talking about their ailments. 

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17 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, nice to see him.  Everyone here seems to know exactly what's going to happen weeks ahead of time.  It's amazing!  The whole place is like a funeral all the time.  Like a bunch of old people talking about their ailments. 

2.3 in the last two winters…

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3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

earthlight also isn't worried at all. i don't know what that's about

MJO trend all winter has been faster than both the EPS/GEFS...closer to the GEFS...if that happens its gonna be a long while til it goes into 3-4-5 or anything of that sort and there is a lag of course.  I had said no pattern lasted more than 2 weeks all winter.  I still expect we get a solid pattern 2/14-2/28 then it probably flips to something else but right now the ensembles may just be rushing the flip a week early

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