bluewave Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 26 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Geps look ugly this afternoon…let’s hope that isn’t correct The 0z EPS was moving in that direction with the forcing lingering longer than previous runs west of the Dateline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 0z EPS was moving in that direction wit the forcing lingering longer than previous runs was of the Dateline. If that’s true, it might be time to call winter for nyc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Even the weeklies kicked the can yesterday @bluewave out west. Doesn’t improve things until late March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Even the weeklies kicked the can yesterday @bluewave out west. Doesn’t improve things until late March. Wtf is going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Wtf is going on We might be done…dam mjo killing us again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We might be done…dam mjo killing is again it makes sense-with the WPC being warm phases 4-5-6 are favored...Notice how little it's been 8-1-2? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: it makes sense-with the WPC being warm phases 4-5-6 are favored...Notice how little it's been 8-1-2? We in trouble…this was supposed to be the heart of the pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Even the weeklies kicked the can yesterday @bluewave out west. Doesn’t improve things until late March. It just shows how sensitive the pattern has been to forcing west of the Dateline. The old EPS run had more subsidence there. Now there is some forcing starting to show up again. While the warm pool has diminished there in recent weeks, there is still an area of +30°C SST warmth. New run some forcing showing up now west of the Dateline Feb 20 to 25th in the blue -2 near 160E. Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We might be done…dam mjo killing us again Looks like it never gets to 8. I wonder if the same people who were excited before about this upcoming pattern calling it epic is still excited I guess we have to hope for the end of the month storm once the block goes away. The mjo being weak in cod isn't bad but this pattern had potential . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: We in trouble…this was supposed to be the heart of the pattern. I keep saying people that post these 300 maps are foolish because it's going to change. Earthlight is also worried because next weeks storm might be snow for alot of people and he wishes it was a huge cutter to enhance the nao block. He thinks next weeks storm might hurt us in the long run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: It just shows how sensitive the pattern has been to forcing west of the Dateline. The old EPS run had more subsidence there. Now there is some forcing starting to show up again. While the warm pool has diminished there in recent weeks, there is still an area of +30°C SST warmth. New run some forcing showing up now west of the Dateline Feb 20 to 25th in the blue -2 near 160E. Old run Yup. I don’t have much hope anymore. We probably get cold in March but by that time it will be too late for NYC. Awful turn of events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I keep saying posting these 300 maps are foolish because it's going to change. Earthlight is also worried because next weeks storm might be snow for alot of people and he wishes it was a huge cutter to enhance the nao block. He thinks next weeks storm might hurt us in the long run. Tuesday has no shot at being anymore then a slushy inch in and around the city 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Tuesday has no shot at being anymore then a slushy inch in and around the city Based off what ? Still looks good for a few inches. We will take that. Brooklynwx still loves the pattern going forward . We still have a chance with this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Based off what ? Still looks good for a few inches. We will take that. Brooklynwx still loves the pattern going forward . We still have a chance with this storm. @brooklynwx99 has loved the pattern at H5 for the last 2 winters and it has produced 2.3 NYC won’t see a few inches with surface temps in the mid 30’s 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @brooklynwx99 has loved the pattern at H5 for the last 2 winters and it has produced 2.3 NYC won’t see a few inches with surface temps in the mid 30’s I'm expecting a huge storm for us with the SOI being so negative. Probably 1 and done. Next weeks storm isn't done yet for us. There will still be wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Models are still cold going forward but we need snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 @brooklynwx99 get here soon...it's quickly going off the rails 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I'm expecting a huge storm for us with the SOI being so negative. Probably 1 and done. Next weeks storm isn't done yet for us. There will still be wobbles. Better get some cold air in here...most of the city and coast's biggest storms are preceded by arctic air ahead of time not 55 degrees 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Blue Dream said: @brooklynwx99 get here soon...it's quickly going off the rails nah, i'm gonna leave it and see how it goes. i am the scapegoat for some reason. have fun! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, Blue Dream said: @brooklynwx99 get here soon...it's quickly going off the rails He is still expecting a good pattern going forward and he's not alone in his thinking . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Brian5671 said: Better get some cold air in here...most of the city and coast's biggest storms are preceded by arctic air ahead of time not 55 degrees I agree with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Brian5671 said: Better get some cold air in here...most of the city and coast's biggest storms are preceded by arctic air ahead of time not 55 degrees Presidents’ Day weekend. But we will have a short window to score something. If not, it’s over with the pac taking over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: nah, i'm gonna leave it and see how it goes. i am the scapegoat for some reason. have fun! Allsnow shouldn't have called you out like that but hopefully you are right . The pattern on the models don't look bad but we need snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, Allsnow said: Presidents’ Day weekend. But we will have a short window to score something. If not, it’s over with the pac taking over While that may be true , we are talking about the long range here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, MJO812 said: Allsnow shouldn't have called you out like that but hopefully you are right . The pattern on the models don't look bad but we need snow ! Euro looks good for the 17th. Probably our best and only shot with the blocking not as strong 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 earthlight also isn't worried at all. i don't know what that's about 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Whatever happens, happens. The sun will continue to rise in the east. One wise man around here did say "If it doesn't come by late January it's probably not going to" 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: earthlight also isn't worried at all. i don't know what that's about He is a little worried but nothing to suggest this pattern going forward is horrible. Even CooL isn't worried . PB loves this pattern 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro looks good for the 17th. Probably our best and only shot with the blocking not as strong We usually do well whenever the block relaxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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