February 2024

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

EPS snow mean 7-9 last night 

Gefs snow mean 8-10 

[EastonSN+]

13 hours ago, bluewave said:

On track for one of the warmest winters with a double SSW.

 

Snowfall for CPK.

Odd that only one year had above average snowfall, and that was the year Amy said barely qualified. Was suppression the issue? I remember 98/99 being a Trainwreck. The two years over 20 inches were during the two extreme snowfall periods, so perhaps the cyclical PNA pattern.

65/66 - 21.4

70/71 - 15.5

87/88 - 19.1

98/99 - 12.7

09/10 - 51.4

 

 

[EastonSN+]

13 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, weren't some of these other winters pretty warm too-- we didn't see much snow in 1998-99 or 1987-88 either (although we did have the one snowstorm in January 1988 that was pretty good.) 1970-71 and 1965-66 didn't give us much snow either, but they were definitely colder.

 

The two years over 20 inches were not surprisingly during our two cyclical extreme snowfall periods. The other three during our 30 year snow drought.

The PAC is cyclical so I believe this proves that blocking alone will never help us, we need blocking PLUS a good background state. Look at the last two years, just a repeat of 70 through 99. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

The two years over 20 inches were not surprisingly during our two cyclical extreme snowfall periods. The other three during our 30 year snow drought.

The PAC is cyclical so I believe this proves that blocking alone will never help us, we need blocking PLUS a good background state. Look at the last two years, just a repeat of 70 through 99. 

And there are some years when we had zero blocking but still had a great deal of snow and very cold temperatures, 1993-94 being a case in point.

 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Snowfall for CPK.

Odd that only one year had above average snowfall, and that was the year Amy said barely qualified. Was suppression the issue? I remember 98/99 being a Trainwreck. The two years over 20 inches were during the two extreme snowfall periods, so perhaps the cyclical PNA pattern.

65/66 - 21.4

70/71 - 15.5

87/88 - 19.1

98/99 - 12.7

09/10 - 51.4

 

 

The middle three years were really awful, the first year wasn't that good either, it was just one storm, and we were on the edge of it lol.  Look up the snowfall totals of 1965-66 for DC and Norfolk, Virgina.  And that was a strong el nino and has been used as an analog for this season.  The following year we were at cold neutral close to weak la nina and look how great 1966-67 was for snowfall.  So maybe next season we'll finally get a good season.  I'm not expecting 1995-96 or 2010-11 type la nina after el nino, but hopefully we'll get closer to average snowfall next season.

 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

And there are some years when we had zero blocking but still had a great deal of snow and very cold temperatures, 1993-94 being a case in point.

 

Yup like 2013/2014. PAC will always have greater importance than the Atlantic. Of course, if you are big storm hunting, you want them to align. 

The PAC is like the cold water faucet, the Atlantic, or blocking, the drain. Turn the cold water on high the close the drain....

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Snowfall for CPK.

Odd that only one year had above average snowfall, and that was the year Amy said barely qualified. Was suppression the issue? I remember 98/99 being a Trainwreck. The two years over 20 inches were during the two extreme snowfall periods, so perhaps the cyclical PNA pattern.

65/66 - 21.4

70/71 - 15.5

87/88 - 19.1

98/99 - 12.7

09/10 - 51.4

 

 

1965-66 one snowstorm winter (and we were on the edge of that snowstorm, look at snowfall totals for DC and Norfolk, VA lol)

1987-88 one snowstorm winter, it was one of the best snowstorms between 1983 and 1993, we barely missed getting into double digits with a 9 plus inch snowstorm in January, it was the second consecutive year we got a 9 plus inch snowstorm in January (January 1987 was the other one.)  The next time we received a 9 inch snowstorm was in the 1990-91 winter (the famous 36 hour wet snowstorm in February) we discussed before, which also had two 5 plus inch events.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup like 2013/2014. PAC will always have greater importance than the Atlantic. Of course, if you are big storm hunting, you want them to align. 

The PAC is like the cold water faucet, the Atlantic, or blocking, the drain. Turn the cold water on high the close the drain....

What the lack of blocking does is keep the rain/snow line close, which is why there were so many mixing events in 1993-94 and a few in 2013-14 too.

 

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

extremely potent signal on the EPS

 

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m addition to the strong 2/24 signal, we’re starting to see a cluster of lows show up near the BM and further southwest (timing variance) on the individual ensemble plot for 2/19ish. Pretty good to start seeing some clusters at D10

 

Great sign, courtesy of the NE forum.

[MJO812]

SOI -46

Wow

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Snowfall for CPK.

Odd that only one year had above average snowfall, and that was the year Amy said barely qualified. Was suppression the issue? I remember 98/99 being a Trainwreck. The two years over 20 inches were during the two extreme snowfall periods, so perhaps the cyclical PNA pattern.

65/66 - 21.4

70/71 - 15.5

87/88 - 19.1

98/99 - 12.7

09/10 - 51.4

 

 

SSWs only work out for us to get above normal snowfall seasons when the Pacific cooperates and its cold enough. 

[NittanyWx]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

SSWs only work out for us to get above normal snowfall seasons when the Pacific cooperates and its cold enough. 

There is also tangential/research being done on what impact any SSW event has on the actual PV and the spatial distribution of 2m temperature anomalies/h5 pattern.  There are statistically higher odds of certain loading and post event patterns depending on whether a displacement or full split event occurs.

[IrishRob17]

Patches of green grass and daffodils starting to pop...climo for the second week of Feb...

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

There is also tangential/research being done on what impact any SSW event has on the actual PV and the spatial distribution of 2m temperature anomalies/h5 pattern.  There are statistically higher odds of certain loading and post event patterns depending on whether a displacement or full split event occurs.

The biggest snowfall post SSW usually occurs when there was a higher snowfall during the season prior to the SSW. This was the case in years like 17-18 when we already had a snowy season before the SSW. So Long Island wound up with a record breaking 30” following the SSW in March. Other years like 06-07 had less snow following the SSW since there was hardly any snowfall before the event. 

[Allsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The biggest snowfall post SSW usually occurs when there was a higher snowfall during the season prior to the SSW. This was the case in years like 17-18 when we already had a snowy season before the SSW. So Long Island wound up with a record breaking 30” following the SSW in March. Other years like 06-07 had less snow following the SSW since there was hardly any snowfall before the event. 

06-07 could have been different if those sleet storms took better tracks for the coast. We still did have a decent stretch of winter on 07 after the ssw 

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

06-07 could have been different if those sleet storms took better tracks for the coast. We still did have a decent stretch of winter on 07 after the ssw 

That Valentine’s Day storm was one of the more unusual ice storms that I ever saw on the Long Island South Shore. It started with several areas getting a ton of sleet. A gas station canopy collapsed in Island Park from the weight. Then the immediate south shore beaches turned to freezing rain. I picked up about .25 of ice back in Long Beach. The first time areas south of Merrick Road had more freezing rain than areas north. It was also one of the more impressive flash freezes in the afternoon after the brief warm up. Was one of the few times 2000- 2009 that a February cold blocking pattern disappointed.

[Brian5671]

This season reminds me a bit of 97-98-some decent tracks for snow but cold air is lacking most of the winter

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That Valentine’s Day storm was one of the more unusual ice storms that I ever saw on the Long Island South Shore. It started with several areas getting a ton of sleet. A gas station canopy collapsed in Island Park from the weight. Then the immediate south shore beaches turned to freezing rain. I picked up about .25 of ice back in Long Beach. The first time areas south of Merrick Road had more freezing rain than areas north. It was also one of the more impressive flash freezes in the afternoon after the brief warm up. Was one of the few times 2000- 2009 that a February cold blocking pattern disappointed.

Best ice storm since 1994.

I would also argue that 14-15 was another season where we started out bad and ended up with a very good season.

1977-78 too but that one is held sacred lol

 

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That Valentine’s Day storm was one of the more unusual ice storms that I ever saw on the Long Island South Shore. It started with several areas getting a ton of sleet. A gas station canopy collapsed in Island Park from the weight. Then the immediate south shore beaches turned to freezing rain. I picked up about .25 of ice back in Long Beach. The first time areas south of Merrick Road had more freezing rain than areas north. It was also one of the more impressive flash freezes in the afternoon after the brief warm up. Was one of the few times 2000- 2009 that a February cold blocking pattern disappointed.

We also had the nice St Paddys Day storm in 07.... my doors were stuck shut lol

 

[LibertyBell]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

SSWs only work out for us to get above normal snowfall seasons when the Pacific cooperates and its cold enough. 

But you can take out the SSW part and just say we need the Pacific to cooperate and it's cold enough.

This would work with or without the SSW, so maybe the SSW isn't important at all?

 

[Krs4Lfe]

One thing to keep in mind is that oftentimes when we see western ridging and eastern troughing showing up (blues over our area), we tend to get excited. But those blues merely indicate colder than average, and oftentimes, stormier than average. As we've seen this winter and last winter, without proper cold air, you can have a few day average of blue contours, without there being snowfall in the region. So let's not get *too* excited with these depictions, as it can still lead to a cold rain, considering how much we're lacking snow and cold across CONUS. 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But you can take out the SSW part and just say we need the Pacific to cooperate and it's cold enough.

This would work with or without the SSW, so maybe the SSW isn't important at all?

 

The SSW was needed in 2018 to flip the atmosphere back to its prior cold and snowy state which existed before the record 80° warmth in February. 

[Allsnow]

Gfs finally gets a clue and brings the cold down 

[Snowstorms]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The middle three years were really awful, the first year wasn't that good either, it was just one storm, and we were on the edge of it lol.  Look up the snowfall totals of 1965-66 for DC and Norfolk, Virgina.  And that was a strong el nino and has been used as an analog for this season.  The following year we were at cold neutral close to weak la nina and look how great 1966-67 was for snowfall.  So maybe next season we'll finally get a good season.  I'm not expecting 1995-96 or 2010-11 type la nina after el nino, but hopefully we'll get closer to average snowfall next season.

 

That 2015-16 super Nino screwed things up and since then, the WPAC has been incredibly warm. Maybe a strong La Nina might offset the warmth and cool it down, idk? Despite the multi-year Nina, we haven't had a strong Nina since 2010-11. We had many cold winters during the last multi-decadal -PDO so I don't think it's the driver of this warmth. 

You can add 1917-18 to that list. I'll take a repeat of that winter. It was a La Nina following an El nino. 

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Gfs finally gets a clue and brings the cold down 

 

Was about to post the same thing...first run where I believe its idea on the Op D5-9 is likely most accurate.

[Allsnow]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Was about to post the same thing...first run where I believe its idea on the Op D5-9 is likely most accurate.

Yup, euro and cmc have had it for days now 

[Krs4Lfe]

I'm not sure how much we realize that this winter has been one of the mildest on record for CONUS. 2012, 2020, and 2023, despite having similar impacts in our region, had much more elsewhere. I have never seen this level of warmth and lack of snow across the country. Aside from a 2.5 week period in early- late January, winter has been all but absent for this entire season. The Pac jet torched CONUS in December, and the jet extension did that yet again for late Jan and early Feb. December is usually quite active across the northern tier, and late Jan- mid Feb is peak climo for most of CONUS. During these two critical periods, winter almost never came. That can be evident even by The Weather Channel's automatic storm naming mechanism. When 2+ million people are under winter storm warning/blizzard warning/ice storm warning, a winter storm becomes named. There have only been 11 of those since November, a record low. 2022 held the previous record with only 12 of those (made it up to the L storm around this time in Feb 2022). Uncharted territory here, and we're all still seeing the consequences of it. 

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

That 2015-16 super Nino screwed things up and since then, the WPAC has been incredibly warm. Maybe a strong La Nina might offset the warmth and cool it down, idk? Despite the multi-year Nina, we haven't had a strong Nina since 2010-11. We had many cold winters during the last multi-decadal -PDO so I don't think it's the driver of this warmth. 

You can add 1917-18 to that list. I'll take a repeat of that winter. It was a La Nina following an El nino. 

Yes, you know my favorite enso phase is a la nina after an el nino, those are great for hot and dry summers and snowy winters.  I'm hoping for this combo after this fiasco of a winter.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The SSW was needed in 2018 to flip the atmosphere back to its prior cold and snowy state which existed before the record 80° warmth in February. 

Was the same the case in 1955-56 (that winter gets compared to it).

[Allsnow]

Geps look ugly this afternoon…let’s hope that isn’t correct