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54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1986-87 was a very interesting winter with many near misses.

It's interesting that Monmouth County got 50 inches of snow that winter and we got half that or about 25 inches.  January 1987 had the standout snow event of that winter but there were several near misses like the one you mentioned in February.

 

We’ll probably never see another winter like 86-87 again since It may be one of the few times that Central NJ got 50” and NYC didn’t. Most of the the other 50” seasons in Central NJ extended north with NYC getting 50” also.

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13 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I was going to wait til at least 6A Friday to further review since there is much uncertainty including sfc temps, but someone else started the thread.

Walt - the NBM, which I know you and the NWS favor, is finally showing at least a minor snowfall for NYC Metro (1-3"); granted it's hard to know how much of this would truly accumulate, but if we see anything like the rates the GFS is showing, it won't matter much, whereas if we only get light to moderate rates during the day, it's white rain.  Too early to know those details.  

snowfall_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

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17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll probably never see another winter like 86-87 again since It may be one of the few times that Central NJ got 50” and NYC didn’t. Most of the the other 50” seasons in Central NJ extended north with NYC getting 50” also.

That's a really weird winter, are we sure there weren't any snowfall measuring problems at Central Park?  What was JFK's snowfall total that winter? How is possible for barely 25 miles south of us to get 50" of snow and NYC only gets 25"-- they didn't even reach their seasonal average (although it was snowier than many other winters in that decade.)

The following winter was also snowier south of us wasn't it-- in 1987-88 there was the big Veteran's Day snowstorm that hit DC to Philly, somehow skipped over us and then hit Boston.  We got 1-2 inches (I remember this storm!) but both north and south of us saw much more (sort of like April Fools Day 1997).

 

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22 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

Yes, slightly but the whole idea that this is going to be nothing but rain for odd 95 is definitely a doomer attitude. This is legitimate threat for I 95.

Meanwhile Lee Goldberg says he is issuing a snowfall map at 6 PM.....I doubt it shows any accumulation for us, but he did say it would go from rain to mix to snow at the end for us.

 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

On track for one of the warmest winters with double SSWs

 

Chris, weren't some of these other winters pretty warm too-- we didn't see much snow in 1998-99 or 1987-88 either (although we did have the one snowstorm in January 1988 that was pretty good.) 1970-71 and 1965-66 didn't give us much snow either, but they were definitely colder.

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's a really weird winter, are we sure there weren't any snowfall measuring problems at Central Park?  What was JFK's snowfall total that winter? How is possible for barely 25 miles south of us to get 50" of snow and NYC only gets 25"-- they didn't even reach their seasonal average (although it was snowier than many other winters in that decade.)

The following winter was also snowier south of us wasn't it-- in 1987-88 there was the big Veteran's Day snowstorm that hit DC to Philly, somehow skipped over us and then hit Boston.  We got 1-2 inches (I remember this storm!) but both north and south of us saw much more (sort of like April Fools Day 1997).

 

The snowfall measurements were spot on in those days at Central Park when the NWS crew would head over from 30 Rock to take the measurements themselves. 

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Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 65 (2017)
NYC: 62 (2017)
LGA: 62 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: -7 (1934)
NYC: -7 (1934)
LGA:  -2 (1963)

 

 

Historical:

 

1835 - A severe cold wave gripped the southeastern U.S. The mercury dipped to 8 above at Jacksonville FL, and to zero at Savannah GA. Orange trees were killed to the roots. (David Ludlum)

1936 - The temperature at Denver CO plunged to a record 30 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1956: From February 1-8, heavy snow fell over the Panhandle of Texas. Snowfall amounts include 43 inches in Vega, 24 inches in Hereford, and 14 inches in Amarillo. The storm caused 23 deaths and numerous injuries. It snowed continuously for 92 hours in some locations.

 

1968: The highest 1-day snow at the Savannah Airport in South Carolina occurs on this date when 3.6 inches of snow fell. Records began in 1871.

1985 - Blue Canyon, CA, set a 24-hour February snowfall record by receiving 42 inches of snow from February 7th-8th.

1987 - A powerful storm produced blizzard conditions in the Great Lakes Region. Winds gusted to 86 mph at Janesville WI and Cleveland OH received 12 inches of snow. North winds of 50 to 70 mph raised the water level of southern Lake Michigan two feet, and produced waves 12 to 18 feet high, causing seven million dollars damage along the Chicago area shoreline. It was the most damage caused by shoreline flooding and erosion in the history of the city of Chicago. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Arctic air invaded the north central U.S. Hibbing MN reported a morning low of 30 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm over California produced snow from the beaches of Malibu to the desert canyons around Palm Springs, and the snow created mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles Basin. Sixteen cities in the western U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Marysville CA reported an all-time record low reading of 21 degrees above zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1989: Mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles area as freak snow struck California. The snow was reported from the beaches of Malibu to the desert around Palm Springs. 

1990 - Unseasonably mild weather prevailed across the south central and eastern U.S. Twenty-two cities, including five in Michigan, reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 53 degrees at Flint MI surpassed their previous record by ten degrees, and the high of 66 degrees at Burlington IA exceeded their old record by eight degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

2009 - Snow falls at levels above elevations of 11,000 feet on the Big Island's Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea in Hawaii. The Weather Doctor

2013 - A nor'easter produced heavy snowfall over the New England states. In Boston, Massachusetts, total snowfall reached 24.9 inches, the fifth-highest total ever recorded in the city. New York City officially recorded 11.4 inches of snow at Central Park, and Portland, Maine, set a record of 31.9 inches. Hamden, Connecticut, recorded the highest snowfall of the storm at 40 inches.

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1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 65 (2017)
NYC: 62 (2017)
LGA: 62 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: -7 (1934)
NYC: -7 (1934)
LGA:  -2 (1963)

 

 

Historical:

 

1835 - A severe cold wave gripped the southeastern U.S. The mercury dipped to 8 above at Jacksonville FL, and to zero at Savannah GA. Orange trees were killed to the roots. (David Ludlum)

1936 - The temperature at Denver CO plunged to a record 30 degrees below zero. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1956: From February 1-8, heavy snow fell over the Panhandle of Texas. Snowfall amounts include 43 inches in Vega, 24 inches in Hereford, and 14 inches in Amarillo. The storm caused 23 deaths and numerous injuries. It snowed continuously for 92 hours in some locations.

 

1968: The highest 1-day snow at the Savannah Airport in South Carolina occurs on this date when 3.6 inches of snow fell. Records began in 1871.

1985 - Blue Canyon, CA, set a 24-hour February snowfall record by receiving 42 inches of snow from February 7th-8th.

1987 - A powerful storm produced blizzard conditions in the Great Lakes Region. Winds gusted to 86 mph at Janesville WI and Cleveland OH received 12 inches of snow. North winds of 50 to 70 mph raised the water level of southern Lake Michigan two feet, and produced waves 12 to 18 feet high, causing seven million dollars damage along the Chicago area shoreline. It was the most damage caused by shoreline flooding and erosion in the history of the city of Chicago. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Arctic air invaded the north central U.S. Hibbing MN reported a morning low of 30 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - A winter storm over California produced snow from the beaches of Malibu to the desert canyons around Palm Springs, and the snow created mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles Basin. Sixteen cities in the western U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Marysville CA reported an all-time record low reading of 21 degrees above zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

1989: Mammoth traffic jams in the Los Angeles area as freak snow struck California. The snow was reported from the beaches of Malibu to the desert around Palm Springs. 

1990 - Unseasonably mild weather prevailed across the south central and eastern U.S. Twenty-two cities, including five in Michigan, reported record high temperatures for the date. The afternoon high of 53 degrees at Flint MI surpassed their previous record by ten degrees, and the high of 66 degrees at Burlington IA exceeded their old record by eight degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

2009 - Snow falls at levels above elevations of 11,000 feet on the Big Island's Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea in Hawaii. The Weather Doctor

2013 - A nor'easter produced heavy snowfall over the New England states. In Boston, Massachusetts, total snowfall reached 24.9 inches, the fifth-highest total ever recorded in the city. New York City officially recorded 11.4 inches of snow at Central Park, and Portland, Maine, set a record of 31.9 inches. Hamden, Connecticut, recorded the highest snowfall of the storm at 40 inches.

2013 - A nor'easter produced heavy snowfall over the New England states. In Boston, Massachusetts, total snowfall reached 24.9 inches, the fifth-highest total ever recorded in the city. New York City officially recorded 11.4 inches of snow at Central Park, and Portland, Maine, set a record of 31.9 inches. Hamden, Connecticut, recorded the highest snowfall of the storm at 40 inches.

Was this the anniversary of the storm that dumped 30-40 inches over Long Island and shut down the LIE?

Looks like this is also the anniversary of the start of the famous historic arctic shot in February 1934!

 

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55 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Epic winter where I lived in central Massachusetts.  Jan 1987 was a record breaker for snowfall.  Several feet of snowpack by the end of the month.  As an 8th grader snow lover, I was in snow heaven.  That Feb storm that missed to our south initially gave us a blizzard warning on a Sunday afternoon, hearing that on my NOAA weather radio.  That one was a huge bust.  Only a dusting with wind while the Cape got hammered. 

In spite of the bad rep of the late 80s and early 90s there were some real jewels in there-- January 1987 and January 1988 were both very notable snowstorms and we had 3 moderate sized snowstorms of 5" or greater in the 1990-91 winter including a 36 hour snowstorm in February.  No true double digit snowstorms, but 5-9" snowstorms are something we would really enjoy right now.

 

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12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2013 - A nor'easter produced heavy snowfall over the New England states. In Boston, Massachusetts, total snowfall reached 24.9 inches, the fifth-highest total ever recorded in the city. New York City officially recorded 11.4 inches of snow at Central Park, and Portland, Maine, set a record of 31.9 inches. Hamden, Connecticut, recorded the highest snowfall of the storm at 40 inches.

Was this the anniversary of the storm that dumped 30-40 inches over Long Island and shut down the LIE?

Looks like this is also the anniversary of the start of the famous historic arctic shot in February 1934!

 

 

Yes the 11 year anniversary of this

 

20130207-20130210-4.35.jpg

 

 

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The warming trend continues. Temperatures rose into the 50s across the region today. Even warmer temperatures lie ahead. The temperature will likely peak in the middle or upper 50s in New York City and into the 60s in Philadelphia and Washington, DC on Saturday.

The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. As a result, the first 10 days of February will likely wind up 5°-7° above normal in New York City.

New York City will very likely see a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, were the February 1-10 temperature to average 40.0° or above, that development could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season.

The second week of February will likely see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week preceded by a storm. That storm could affect the region early next week. There is a possibility that the rain could mix with or end as a period of wet snow or flurries in parts of the region. Temperatures will likely remain above freezing throughout the duration of the storm.

Single-digit cold is unlikely in New York City following the pattern change. During February, cases with warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies see such lows at 55% of frequency as cold ENSO Region 1+2 cases during El Niño winters. During the second half of February, just 17% of cases with a PDO- saw single-digit cold during El Niño winters. January saw a strongly negative PDO.   

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around January 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.83°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -32.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.565 today.

On February 6 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.271 (RMM). The February 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.080 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7.° (1.8° above normal).

 

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Long range guidance really struggling with the fast Pacific flow. The EPS is backing off the cold that it was showing day 8-14. It now has milder temperatures than the previous run. 
 

New run

F5E4E81C-105C-4F94-99DD-E9761E62A1E1.thumb.png.f95b0b25ab664ab2f0c27c6170a33da0.png

Old run

 

9D89C18D-92D3-4727-BAC7-DC96AA104B97.thumb.png.4adb1fe2c1d69868364f0d3e834fe2d9.png

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9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Long range guidance really struggling with the fast Pacific flow. The EPS is backing off the cold that it was showing day 8-14. It now has milder temperatures than the previous run. 
 

New run

F5E4E81C-105C-4F94-99DD-E9761E62A1E1.thumb.png.f95b0b25ab664ab2f0c27c6170a33da0.png

Old run

 

9D89C18D-92D3-4727-BAC7-DC96AA104B97.thumb.png.4adb1fe2c1d69868364f0d3e834fe2d9.png

The pac is going to improve after next weeks storm with storm threats. 

We are still watching next week's storm and Presidents day.

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The pac is going to improve after next weeks storm with storm threats. 

We are still watching next week's storm and Presidents day.

Why confused and then appear a bit defensive. He merely shared maps that clearly show it got milder as it got closer. Could it change? Sure. That change could go either way. 

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