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Euro changes the rain Monday night over to snow Tuesday morning, but with the lousy airmass it would probably be white rain or just a slushy coating on colder surfaces for the NYC area. Those clown maps are really bad as many have pointed out. We really would need a dynamic solution to get decent accumulations near the coast. Interesting enough to keep an eye on, but I think only a very slight chance that this will work out. Hopefully we'll have a better snow chance President's Day Weekend when we actually have some cold air in place. 

Anyway it's 55 degrees here right now. Looking forward to the pattern change and hopefully some snow threats mid to late month, but it's nice to have temps well up into the 50s for a few days now. I'm leaving right now for deer hunting. Great way to finish up the last few days of the season with this warm weather. 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Pattern doesn't support that 

Yes, it absolutely does and I fully expect the models to adjust as such again, the CMC/GEPS is closest to reality right now IMO. You are setting yourself up for a huge disappointment again. If I’m wrong then torch me, but I don’t think I will be

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29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pattern doesn't support that 

If the confluence weakens as we get closer in and/or the storm gets more amped yes it certainly will go back north. It’s incredibly thread the needle here. We need a dynamic storm which will try to trend north to overcome the crap initial airmass, enough confluence to keep it from cutting but not too much to suppress it, and a somewhat cooperative long wave pattern to help it track in a favorable way. It’s not the classic setup by any means for us to get a significant snowstorm around the city. What comes in 10 days or so should be more favorable. 

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Funny how it used to always be the Kuchera maps that were the clown maps, and now it's the 10:1 ratio maps.

From an amateurish perspective, why post maps at all that will be derided as clown car pileups?

(Truly asking, because half the maps posted here usually result in typed out throwdowns)


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decided to place some more coherent thoughts here. this is effectively a system where the northern and southern streams are in conflict and either phase or remain separate. the northern stream (NS) can be seen over the Dakotas, and the southern stream (SS) can be seen over the Four Corners region

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7609600.thumb.png.e121625bf5e54c5d837723a82f7ecf91.png

as we head through Sunday, it is a matter of how the two streams interact. there has been a consistent trend across guidance to push the NS ahead of the SS such that instead of phasing with the NS, it actually ends up compressing the flow, like so. the NS is strung out north of the Great Lakes, while the SS remains hung back over the Ozarks. this is a big departure from what we were seeing yesterday... GEFS trend loop attached, you can see the two streams drift apart

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7717600.thumb.png.a3ef5e6173dcfc67dc787c085e7bfae5.pnggfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh90_trend.thumb.gif.f64e6a2a86c1733edeea627fb6e48291.gif

finally, once we're at the start of next week, the SS vort is effectively running into a wall of confluence rather than phasing with the NS. this promotes an intense precipitation field from a potent SLP. the ensemble members from the EPS and GEFS are routinely sub-990mb. again, this is a consistent trend to increase confluence and decrease phasing looking from 12z yesterday to now:

126793338_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7782400(3).thumb.png.05c672122e6d3029fdb2809d8eb19540.pngezgif-1-9f0c03d72b.thumb.gif.3be574b10bcd7ca6ad827b0bec4fdbc6.gif

so, this leads to a SLP that's farther south rather the borderline inland runner that was showing up on earlier runs of the ECMWF and CMC. by the way, even the CMC has decidedly moved towards less stream interaction. confidence of 3" or more on the EPS has moved well south of where it was yesterday. this is a big move for the EPS, as it's generally pretty consistent, even at this range. the greatest snowfall remains to the north of I-78 and especially I-84:

ezgif-1-138051ce0e.thumb.gif.b989371c13f935874894e1f86c35cbbb.gif

let's look at the general 500mb pattern across North America to see if any of this is even viable. we can see ridging developing across the high latitudes, which is representative of the pattern change that is ongoing at this time. there is AK ridging, providing some colder air into the flow, and there is a lobe of the polar vortex that's providing some confluence just north of the Great Lakes. there is also ample low pressure over the North Atlantic, which promotes more confluence than not. the southern stream shortwave has a much harder time raising heights ahead of it with the flow downstream, so this kind of shortwave moving ENE rather than NE or NNE is indeed viable. again, notice the trend with less stream interaction and lower heights in SE Canada

ezgif-1-125d406ab0.thumb.gif.c7565e79c9b2cecc0a48a2b032e50054.gif

are there any analogs that we can look at? there is only one that I'm really aware of, which is 2/23/87. this was also a pretty strong El Nino February, and I think the setup shares some features. both setups share the same kind of stream interaction that we're seeing... a potent SS vort and a northern stream vort that is generally out ahead of the system. there are a couple of differences, though. the first is that with this system, the northern stream did have a partial phase at the end, which is not what we're currently seeing (although possible!). second, there was a much more well established blocking pattern in place, as shown by the 500mb anomalies. there was much more confluence in the northern Atlantic, which is a more "classic" setup for a significant snowfall event. the 1987 event was a major snowfall event for the Mid-Atlantic, which is definitely unlikely here. however, take a bit of strength out of the eventual result (less phasing here) and shift things north (less confluence here), and the general axis and half of the total snowfall could be quite realistic

ezgif-2-afba25ea45.thumb.gif.db4fd19c72bc7172463b33a6c60b3bae.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-1707393600-1707652800-1707912000-100-1.thumb.gif.f51d80ceb09292270afd0bec2c67174e.gif

19870222-19870223-1_46.thumb.jpg.8fae37b7a3ebcab7659af7a91ece70b8.jpgcompday.JQf1sQxStP.gif.441bd26b1668c857b147114fb3157b2d.gif

so, we will see where things go from here. the whole setup is definitely a bit of a needle threader, as the confluence is not locked in and is pretty much entirely dependent on the movements of the northern stream vort. therefore, there can be a renewed trend back north or even a move back to a phasing scenario. however, it seems like the trend is for more destructive interference from the NS rather than constructive, which is leading to increased confidence in a more southern solution. I would still pinpoint north of I-84 as the safest bet to see anything legit out of this, but anyone north of I-78 is in play. this is also more of a latitude than longitude based event, so being on the coast isn't that big of a deal, it would just hurt ratios. hopefully we have more clarity tomorrow afternoon (doubtful)

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4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

decided to place some more coherent thoughts here. this is effectively a system where the northern and southern streams are in conflict and either phase or remain separate. the northern stream (NS) can be seen over the Dakotas, and the southern stream (SS) can be seen over the Four Corners region

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7609600.thumb.png.e121625bf5e54c5d837723a82f7ecf91.png

as we head through Sunday, it is a matter of how the two streams interact. there has been a consistent trend across guidance to push the NS ahead of the SS such that instead of phasing with the NS, it actually ends up compressing the flow, like so. the NS is strung out north of the Great Lakes, while the SS remains hung back over the Ozarks. this is a big departure from what we were seeing yesterday... GEFS trend loop attached, you can see the two streams drift apart

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7717600.thumb.png.a3ef5e6173dcfc67dc787c085e7bfae5.pnggfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh90_trend.thumb.gif.f64e6a2a86c1733edeea627fb6e48291.gif

finally, once we're at the start of next week, the SS vort is effectively running into a wall of confluence rather than phasing with the NS. this promotes an intense precipitation field from a potent SLP. the ensemble members from the EPS and GEFS are routinely sub-990mb. again, this is a consistent trend to increase confluence and decrease phasing looking from 12z yesterday to now:

126793338_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7782400(3).thumb.png.05c672122e6d3029fdb2809d8eb19540.pngezgif-1-9f0c03d72b.thumb.gif.3be574b10bcd7ca6ad827b0bec4fdbc6.gif

so, this leads to a SLP that's farther south rather the borderline inland runner that was showing up on earlier runs of the ECMWF and CMC. by the way, even the CMC has decidedly moved towards less stream interaction. confidence of 3" or more on the EPS has moved well south of where it was yesterday. this is a big move for the EPS, as it's generally pretty consistent, even at this range. the greatest snowfall remains to the north of I-78 and especially I-84:

ezgif-1-138051ce0e.thumb.gif.b989371c13f935874894e1f86c35cbbb.gif

let's look at the general 500mb pattern across North America to see if any of this is even viable. we can see ridging developing across the high latitudes, which is representative of the pattern change that is ongoing at this time. there is AK ridging, providing some colder air into the flow, and there is a lobe of the polar vortex that's providing some confluence just north of the Great Lakes. there is also ample low pressure over the North Atlantic, which promotes more confluence than not. the southern stream shortwave has a much harder time raising heights ahead of it with the flow downstream, so this kind of shortwave moving ENE rather than NE or NNE is indeed viable. again, notice the trend with less stream interaction and lower heights in SE Canada

ezgif-1-125d406ab0.thumb.gif.c7565e79c9b2cecc0a48a2b032e50054.gif

are there any analogs that we can look at? there is only one that I'm really aware of, which is 2/23/87. this was also a pretty strong El Nino February, and I think the setup shares some features. both setups share the same kind of stream interaction that we're seeing... a potent SS vort and a northern stream vort that is generally out ahead of the system. there are a couple of differences, though. the first is that with this system, the northern stream did have a partial phase at the end, which is not what we're currently seeing (although possible!). second, there was a much more well established blocking pattern in place, as shown by the 500mb anomalies. there was much more confluence in the northern Atlantic, which is a more "classic" setup for a significant snowfall event. the 1987 event was a major snowfall event for the Mid-Atlantic, which is definitely unlikely here. however, take a bit of strength out of the eventual result (less phasing here) and shift things north (less confluence here), and the general axis and half of the total snowfall could be quite realistic

ezgif-2-afba25ea45.thumb.gif.db4fd19c72bc7172463b33a6c60b3bae.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-1707393600-1707652800-1707912000-100-1.thumb.gif.f51d80ceb09292270afd0bec2c67174e.gif

19870222-19870223-1_46.thumb.jpg.8fae37b7a3ebcab7659af7a91ece70b8.jpgcompday.JQf1sQxStP.gif.441bd26b1668c857b147114fb3157b2d.gif

so, we will see where things go from here. the whole setup is definitely a bit of a needle threader, as the confluence is not locked in and is pretty much entirely dependent on the movements of the northern stream vort. therefore, there can be a renewed trend back north or even a move back to a phasing scenario. however, it seems like the trend is for more destructive interference from the NS rather than constructive, which is leading to increased confidence in a more southern solution. I would still pinpoint north of I-84 as the safest bet to see anything legit out of this, but anyone north of I-78 is in play. this is also more of a latitude than longitude based event, so being on the coast isn't that big of a deal, it would just hurt ratios. hopefully we have more clarity tomorrow afternoon (doubtful)

NdNGbXC.gif
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Similar thoughts:

 

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decided to place some more coherent thoughts here. this is effectively a system where the northern and southern streams are in conflict and either phase or remain separate. the northern stream (NS) can be seen over the Dakotas, and the southern stream (SS) can be seen over the Four Corners region
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7609600.thumb.png.e121625bf5e54c5d837723a82f7ecf91.png
as we head through Sunday, it is a matter of how the two streams interact. there has been a consistent trend across guidance to push the NS ahead of the SS such that instead of phasing with the NS, it actually ends up compressing the flow, like so. the NS is strung out north of the Great Lakes, while the SS remains hung back over the Ozarks. this is a big departure from what we were seeing yesterday... GEFS trend loop attached, you can see the two streams drift apart
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7717600.thumb.png.a3ef5e6173dcfc67dc787c085e7bfae5.pnggfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh90_trend.thumb.gif.f64e6a2a86c1733edeea627fb6e48291.gif
finally, once we're at the start of next week, the SS vort is effectively running into a wall of confluence rather than phasing with the NS. this promotes an intense precipitation field from a potent SLP. the ensemble members from the EPS and GEFS are routinely sub-990mb. again, this is a consistent trend to increase confluence and decrease phasing looking from 12z yesterday to now:
126793338_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7782400(3).thumb.png.05c672122e6d3029fdb2809d8eb19540.pngezgif-1-9f0c03d72b.thumb.gif.3be574b10bcd7ca6ad827b0bec4fdbc6.gif
so, this leads to a SLP that's farther south rather the borderline inland runner that was showing up on earlier runs of the ECMWF and CMC. by the way, even the CMC has decidedly moved towards less stream interaction. confidence of 3" or more on the EPS has moved well south of where it was yesterday. this is a big move for the EPS, as it's generally pretty consistent, even at this range. the greatest snowfall remains to the north of I-78 and especially I-84:
ezgif-1-138051ce0e.thumb.gif.b989371c13f935874894e1f86c35cbbb.gif
let's look at the general 500mb pattern across North America to see if any of this is even viable. we can see ridging developing across the high latitudes, which is representative of the pattern change that is ongoing at this time. there is AK ridging, providing some colder air into the flow, and there is a lobe of the polar vortex that's providing some confluence just north of the Great Lakes. there is also ample low pressure over the North Atlantic, which promotes more confluence than not. the southern stream shortwave has a much harder time raising heights ahead of it with the flow downstream, so this kind of shortwave moving ENE rather than NE or NNE is indeed viable. again, notice the trend with less stream interaction and lower heights in SE Canada
ezgif-1-125d406ab0.thumb.gif.c7565e79c9b2cecc0a48a2b032e50054.gif
are there any analogs that we can look at? there is only one that I'm really aware of, which is 2/23/87. this was also a pretty strong El Nino February, and I think the setup shares some features. both setups share the same kind of stream interaction that we're seeing... a potent SS vort and a northern stream vort that is generally out ahead of the system. there are a couple of differences, though. the first is that with this system, the northern stream did have a partial phase at the end, which is not what we're currently seeing (although possible!). second, there was a much more well established blocking pattern in place, as shown by the 500mb anomalies. there was much more confluence in the northern Atlantic, which is a more "classic" setup for a significant snowfall event. the 1987 event was a major snowfall event for the Mid-Atlantic, which is definitely unlikely here. however, take a bit of strength out of the eventual result (less phasing here) and shift things north (less confluence here), and the general axis and half of the total snowfall could be quite realistic
ezgif-2-afba25ea45.thumb.gif.db4fd19c72bc7172463b33a6c60b3bae.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-1707393600-1707652800-1707912000-100-1.thumb.gif.f51d80ceb09292270afd0bec2c67174e.gif
19870222-19870223-1_46.thumb.jpg.8fae37b7a3ebcab7659af7a91ece70b8.jpgcompday.JQf1sQxStP.gif.441bd26b1668c857b147114fb3157b2d.gif
so, we will see where things go from here. the whole setup is definitely a bit of a needle threader, as the confluence is not locked in and is pretty much entirely dependent on the movements of the northern stream vort. therefore, there can be a renewed trend back north or even a move back to a phasing scenario. however, it seems like the trend is for more destructive interference from the NS rather than constructive, which is leading to increased confidence in a more southern solution. I would still pinpoint north of I-84 as the safest bet to see anything legit out of this, but anyone north of I-78 is in play. this is also more of a latitude than longitude based event, so being on the coast isn't that big of a deal, it would just hurt ratios. hopefully we have more clarity tomorrow afternoon (doubtful)

I would never tell you this in person, but you’re very talented. (That was a nice, clear explanation! Thanks!)


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3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro changes the rain Monday night over to snow Tuesday morning, but with the lousy airmass it would probably be white rain or just a slushy coating on colder surfaces for the NYC area. Those clown maps are really bad as many have pointed out. We really would need a dynamic solution to get decent accumulations near the coast. Interesting enough to keep an eye on, but I think only a very slight chance that this will work out. Hopefully we'll have a better snow chance President's Day Weekend when we actually have some cold air in place. 

Anyway it's 55 degrees here right now. Looking forward to the pattern change and hopefully some snow threats mid to late month, but it's nice to have temps well up into the 50s for a few days now. I'm leaving right now for deer hunting. Great way to finish up the last few days of the season with this warm weather. 

the most important part is it's been SUNNY

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

decided to place some more coherent thoughts here. this is effectively a system where the northern and southern streams are in conflict and either phase or remain separate. the northern stream (NS) can be seen over the Dakotas, and the southern stream (SS) can be seen over the Four Corners region

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7609600.thumb.png.e121625bf5e54c5d837723a82f7ecf91.png

as we head through Sunday, it is a matter of how the two streams interact. there has been a consistent trend across guidance to push the NS ahead of the SS such that instead of phasing with the NS, it actually ends up compressing the flow, like so. the NS is strung out north of the Great Lakes, while the SS remains hung back over the Ozarks. this is a big departure from what we were seeing yesterday... GEFS trend loop attached, you can see the two streams drift apart

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7717600.thumb.png.a3ef5e6173dcfc67dc787c085e7bfae5.pnggfs-ens_z500_vort_us_fh90_trend.thumb.gif.f64e6a2a86c1733edeea627fb6e48291.gif

finally, once we're at the start of next week, the SS vort is effectively running into a wall of confluence rather than phasing with the NS. this promotes an intense precipitation field from a potent SLP. the ensemble members from the EPS and GEFS are routinely sub-990mb. again, this is a consistent trend to increase confluence and decrease phasing looking from 12z yesterday to now:

126793338_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-7782400(3).thumb.png.05c672122e6d3029fdb2809d8eb19540.pngezgif-1-9f0c03d72b.thumb.gif.3be574b10bcd7ca6ad827b0bec4fdbc6.gif

so, this leads to a SLP that's farther south rather the borderline inland runner that was showing up on earlier runs of the ECMWF and CMC. by the way, even the CMC has decidedly moved towards less stream interaction. confidence of 3" or more on the EPS has moved well south of where it was yesterday. this is a big move for the EPS, as it's generally pretty consistent, even at this range. the greatest snowfall remains to the north of I-78 and especially I-84:

ezgif-1-138051ce0e.thumb.gif.b989371c13f935874894e1f86c35cbbb.gif

let's look at the general 500mb pattern across North America to see if any of this is even viable. we can see ridging developing across the high latitudes, which is representative of the pattern change that is ongoing at this time. there is AK ridging, providing some colder air into the flow, and there is a lobe of the polar vortex that's providing some confluence just north of the Great Lakes. there is also ample low pressure over the North Atlantic, which promotes more confluence than not. the southern stream shortwave has a much harder time raising heights ahead of it with the flow downstream, so this kind of shortwave moving ENE rather than NE or NNE is indeed viable. again, notice the trend with less stream interaction and lower heights in SE Canada

ezgif-1-125d406ab0.thumb.gif.c7565e79c9b2cecc0a48a2b032e50054.gif

are there any analogs that we can look at? there is only one that I'm really aware of, which is 2/23/87. this was also a pretty strong El Nino February, and I think the setup shares some features. both setups share the same kind of stream interaction that we're seeing... a potent SS vort and a northern stream vort that is generally out ahead of the system. there are a couple of differences, though. the first is that with this system, the northern stream did have a partial phase at the end, which is not what we're currently seeing (although possible!). second, there was a much more well established blocking pattern in place, as shown by the 500mb anomalies. there was much more confluence in the northern Atlantic, which is a more "classic" setup for a significant snowfall event. the 1987 event was a major snowfall event for the Mid-Atlantic, which is definitely unlikely here. however, take a bit of strength out of the eventual result (less phasing here) and shift things north (less confluence here), and the general axis and half of the total snowfall could be quite realistic

ezgif-2-afba25ea45.thumb.gif.db4fd19c72bc7172463b33a6c60b3bae.gifecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-vort500_z500-1707393600-1707652800-1707912000-100-1.thumb.gif.f51d80ceb09292270afd0bec2c67174e.gif

19870222-19870223-1_46.thumb.jpg.8fae37b7a3ebcab7659af7a91ece70b8.jpgcompday.JQf1sQxStP.gif.441bd26b1668c857b147114fb3157b2d.gif

so, we will see where things go from here. the whole setup is definitely a bit of a needle threader, as the confluence is not locked in and is pretty much entirely dependent on the movements of the northern stream vort. therefore, there can be a renewed trend back north or even a move back to a phasing scenario. however, it seems like the trend is for more destructive interference from the NS rather than constructive, which is leading to increased confidence in a more southern solution. I would still pinpoint north of I-84 as the safest bet to see anything legit out of this, but anyone north of I-78 is in play. this is also more of a latitude than longitude based event, so being on the coast isn't that big of a deal, it would just hurt ratios. hopefully we have more clarity tomorrow afternoon (doubtful)

1986-87 was a very interesting winter with many near misses.

It's interesting that Monmouth County got 50 inches of snow that winter and we got half that or about 25 inches.  January 1987 had the standout snow event of that winter but there were several near misses like the one you mentioned in February.

 

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

1986-87 was a very interesting winter with many near misses.

It's interesting that Monmouth County got 50 inches of snow that winter and we got half that or about 25 inches.  January 1987 had the standout snow event of that winter but there were several near misses like the one you mentioned in February.

 

Epic winter where I lived in central Massachusetts.  Jan 1987 was a record breaker for snowfall.  Several feet of snowpack by the end of the month.  As an 8th grader snow lover, I was in snow heaven.  That Feb storm that missed to our south initially gave us a blizzard warning on a Sunday afternoon, hearing that on my NOAA weather radio.  That one was a huge bust.  Only a dusting with wind while the Cape got hammered. 

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