TJW014 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GFS has a southerly bias around this timeframe. This will tick northwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, TJW014 said: GFS has a southerly bias around this timeframe. This will tick northwest lmao the GFS is very amped, it just has more confluence. its progressive bias is not on display here 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Cmc barely gets precip in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: This is closer to reality CMC is a lot weaker with the low and with the mild prior airmass, looks like a lot of white rain or just rain. We’d need a dynamic setup like the GFS to really snow and accumulate unless you’re inland and probably elevated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 10 minutes ago, jm1220 said: CMC is a lot weaker with the low and with the mild prior airmass, looks like a lot of white rain or just rain. We’d need a dynamic setup like the GFS to really snow and accumulate unless you’re inland and probably elevated. the biggest obstacle to snowfall in the metro with this system is there is no established cold air in place prior to arrival of the storm and you have to be far inland and higher elevation 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Next one to watch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next one to watch GFS has it blocked and Canadian up to 240 hours has no storm down there not even worth speculating at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: the biggest obstacle to snowfall in the metro with this system is there is no established cold air in place prior to arrival of the storm and you have to be far inland and higher elevation wash, rinse, repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Next one to watch Yes it is in that favorable pattern, and we are weather people, so why not track? A phase would have made that a better solution. Just keep an eye on it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 The GFS continues to show less phasing and less favorable northern and southern stream spacing to lift the low further north like earlier runs. We should not be looking at snow clown maps now as they are just not good but rather what is going on aloft. Will see what the other guidance has, but the GFS may not be completely wrong with the scraper for us. Again i would not put stock in its ptype or snow amount at all. It has a cold bias 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 42 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: again, these are just theories at this point. You have posted this before that you do not see it direct correlation with the warmth and the lack of snow. I have a theory that we will actually be much more affected by warming than places like the Delmarva or the Tennessee valley. simply because of location and because we are an extreme urban environment that doesn’t exist anywhere else in the country. You are already seeing this play out in real time. You were looking at a north south east west axis for your warming assumptions going forward. I’m looking at that plus extreme urbanization and urban heat island. I think if you move north and west of New York City, your assumptions will be more in line of a traditional axis by which the warming is moving. But I think New York City in terms of snowfall is fucked at this new warmer climate. I don’t think it’s an aberration. I don’t think it will be comparable to the 70s and 80s and 90s. I think we have seen a sharp drop off in snow due to the fact that we are now running 5 to 10° warmer on any given day then we should be. And in a cement jungle like Brooklyn (sorry MJO) you cant snow under those circumstances Difficult to really say. The Pacific is very hostile in general to producing snowy and cold conditions in the East the last few winters because of the -PDO and warming equatorial W PAC. The Plains and West are favored now and have seen record cold. With the Pacific this hostile, any year would be lousy here. But the background warming will make any lousy year worse-ie we struggle to 10” vs it could’ve produced 15-20” or more in a winter. A few decades or more ago the marginal conditions might’ve accumulated snow and we would’ve been OK for a few minor events that add up. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: The GFS continues to show less phasing and less favorable northern and southern stream spacing to lift the low further north like earlier runs. We should not be looking at snow clown maps now as they are just not good but rather what is going on aloft. Will see what the other guidance has, but the GFS may not be completely wrong with the scraper for us. Again i would not put stock in its ptype or snow amount at all. It has a cold bias you talking about the 13th system or the Presidents Day system ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Can't make this stuff up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: Can't make this stuff up No cold air....same problem all winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said: @donsutherland1 Is it possible that some of the 1-3" days in the early years would be 3-6" days under current snow measuring techniques? And similarly some of the 3-6" days (not shown) would have registered as 6"+ days under current snow measuring techniques? This trend might mostly be generally an artifact of data quality issues and actually masking a general decrease in total snowfall. UCAR estimates proper snow board use with 6-hourly measurements can increase reported total snowfall by 15-20 percent relative to a single storm measurement. Moreover, there were other inconsistencies before 1950, including the use of a simple 10:1 ratio for snowfall at some sites and/or simply measuring change in depth (although I don't think this was the case at Central Park). Regardless, snow boards didn't come into use until the latter half of the 20th century. Source: Snowfall measurement: a flaky history | NCAR & UCAR News It's certainly plausible. I have greater confidence in the 30-season moving averages starting at 1980 and running through 2022-23. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 30 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you talking about the 13th system or the Presidents Day system ? The 13th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Don can you also graph 3-6 events please? I couldn't find data on them. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Do you think the war had anything to do with that massive drop in the late 30s early 40s? I don't know enough about the war's impact to address that issue. There had been a general decline in average winter precipitation from the late 1930s bottoming out at the end of the 1960s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snobal Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 does anyone have snowmaps from the 12z runs today ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 minutes ago, snobal said: does anyone have snowmaps from the 12z runs today ? lol big south jersey snowstorm on GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Current North American snow extent at record lows for the date back to December levels. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Current North American snow extent at record lows for the date back to December levels. Pathetic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18 minutes ago, MANDA said: Pathetic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, MJO812 said: Definitely south an colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: U dont like the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, NEG NAO said: interesting Northern stream runs ahead of the storm and flattens it compared to 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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