EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: IMO it's not the decline in 1-3 thats a big deal, it's the decline in 3-6 thats the real issue here. a bunch of 3-6 storms add up quickly and thats what we've really lacked This time period compared to 70 through 99 will be telling, as we cannot compare this to 00 through 18 (55 through 60 is a direct pattern comparison to 00 through 18). I am tracking average annual snowfall starting this decade against that period. I suspect they will be very close (+-2.5 inches CPK). Reasons I have already stated (increased moisture/dynamics offsetting temps). My tipping point will be when we stop seeing Tennessee, Delmarva getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Every other model is north of the GFS. It might be in its overly suppressed mode 5 days out which sometimes results in it being shown well OTS but this time it means major hit for us. Very high likelihood it corrects back north later today or tomorrow. I don’t see really anything to keep it from favoring New England, and probably NNE at that. Blocking ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 53 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Every other model is north of the GFS. It might be in its overly suppressed mode 5 days out which sometimes results in it being shown well OTS but this time it means major hit for us. Very high likelihood it corrects back north later today or tomorrow. I don’t see really anything to keep it from favoring New England, and probably NNE at that. granted, it's farther south because it has more confluence from the northern stream, not because it's less amplified. it's actually way more amped with the southern stream than the ECMWF so, although it's farther south, it doesn't seem to be due to its typical bias. for the record, I still think it's wrong, but it has a bit more validity this time since the differences between it and the other models are actually pretty small, and the northern stream can absolutely destructively interfere instead of phasing 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 24 minutes ago, TJW014 said: 16th/17th and beyond have more of my interest. Cold air will finally be funneling in with the 16th/17th possible event which could give us some minor accumulations, but really sets us up for something to tap into should something develop in the longer run. With our luck it'll just be wasted cold air that makes sense since minor accumulations is the norm in NYC the last 2 years so maybe they can make it to 4 or 5 inches total for the season so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks Don! The decline in 1 to 3 coupled with the increase of 6+ really shows the effects of increased moisture/dynamics resulting from temps. Do you happen to have 1890 through 1960? Here are the graphed outcomes: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here are the graphed outcomes: It seems like the increase in 6”+ days has masked the decline in 1-3”. So when we get the inevitable drop in larger events, there isn’t a small events cushion to fall back on. This has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 seasons in NYC with below average snowfall so far. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.5 2.2 T 14.4 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 0.0 M M 2.3 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: It seems like the increase in 6”+ days has masked the decline in 1-3”. So when we get the inevitable drop in larger events, there isn’t a small events cushion to fall back on. This has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 seasons in NYC with below average snowfall so far. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.5 2.2 T 14.4 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 0.0 M M 2.3 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 I agree. I suspect that this development is an indication that the New York City area could be in the early stages of a transition toward a lower snowfall state due to the ongoing warming with the 30-season average falling to around 20" by the mid-2030s. A bad cycle may be amplifying the drop in snowfall. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: This time period compared to 70 through 99 will be telling, as we cannot compare this to 00 through 18 (55 through 60 is a direct pattern comparison to 00 through 18). I am tracking average annual snowfall starting this decade against that period. I suspect they will be very close (+-2.5 inches CPK). Reasons I have already stated (increased moisture/dynamics offsetting temps). My tipping point will be when we stop seeing Tennessee, Delmarva getting hammered. DelMarVa maybe but Tennessee maybe not because areas near the ocean are warming faster because the ocean itself is warming faster. I'm not sure what's up with the DelMarVa because DC's snowfall has dropped pretty quickly. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: It seems like the increase in 6”+ days has masked the decline in 1-3”. So when we get the inevitable drop in larger events, there isn’t a small events cushion to fall back on. This has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 seasons in NYC with below average snowfall so far. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.5 2.2 T 14.4 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 0.0 M M 2.3 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 It seems like we still get 1-3 pretty commonly. We don't get the moderate 3-6 storms much anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 35 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here are the graphed outcomes: Don can you also graph 3-6 events please? I couldn't find data on them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here are the graphed outcomes: @donsutherland1 Is it possible that some of the 1-3" days in the early years would be 3-6" days under current snow measuring techniques? And similarly some of the 3-6" days (not shown) would have registered as 6"+ days under current snow measuring techniques? This trend might mostly be generally an artifact of data quality issues and actually masking a general decrease in total snowfall. UCAR estimates proper snow board use with 6-hourly measurements can increase reported total snowfall by 15-20 percent relative to a single storm measurement. Moreover, there were other inconsistencies before 1950, including the use of a simple 10:1 ratio for snowfall at some sites and/or simply measuring change in depth (although I don't think this was the case at Central Park). Regardless, snow boards didn't come into use until the latter half of the 20th century. Source: Snowfall measurement: a flaky history | NCAR & UCAR News 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: DelMarVa maybe but Tennessee maybe not because areas near the ocean are warming faster because the ocean itself is warming faster. I'm not sure what's up with the DelMarVa because DC's snowfall has dropped pretty quickly. DC always had issues as they are too far north for SE sliders and too far south for many Miller Bs. How much warmer can ocean temps realistically get to (obviously boiling but that would be a much much graver situation lol). Remember coastal NC just had a good snowfall event too. That is important considering water temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Here are the graphed outcomes: Do you think the war had anything to do with that massive drop in the late 30s early 40s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: It seems like the increase in 6”+ days has masked the decline in 1-3”. So when we get the inevitable drop in larger events, there isn’t a small events cushion to fall back on. This has resulted in 5 out of the last 6 seasons in NYC with below average snowfall so far. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.0 1.1 2.2 3.9 5.5 2.2 T 14.4 2023-2024 0.0 T T 2.3 0.0 M M 2.3 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 2.2 0.1 0.0 2.3 2021-2022 0.0 T 0.2 15.3 2.0 0.4 0.0 17.9 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 We have to carve out 70 through 99 and and compare against 2020 onwards. 2000 through 2018 was more in line with 55 through 69 especially in terms of KUs. I am tracking the average annual CPK snowfall 70 through 99 against 2020 onwards. My thoughts are still +-2.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Do you think the war had anything to do with that massive drop in the late 30s early 40s? thats a puzzling drop because we had some of our coldest winters during WW2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: pretty distinct trend to separate the two streams over the last two model cycles, increasing confluence later on Still no cold air. Unless it bombs out it will be rain or white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 53 pages on the 8th of the month and no snow or cold to show for it so far. I know full well that is what was expected but that is a lot of "chit chat" over a pending pattern change. Keep calm and carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 DC snowstorm on gfs Cmc much flatter also compared to 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Still no cold air. Unless it bombs out it will be rain or white rain If the confluence is real and we can develop the low quickly as it goes to our south it should snow. Question would be how much is wasted on the front end due to the marginal airmass or otherwise if we struggle to get to 32. But I wouldn’t jump on any snowy solution unless other models jump on board and we hold that solution for at least 24 hours. We’ve seen time and again these lows especially southern stream trend north at the end and confluence weaken. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: This time period compared to 70 through 99 will be telling, as we cannot compare this to 00 through 18 (55 through 60 is a direct pattern comparison to 00 through 18). I am tracking average annual snowfall starting this decade against that period. I suspect they will be very close (+-2.5 inches CPK). Reasons I have already stated (increased moisture/dynamics offsetting temps). My tipping point will be when we stop seeing Tennessee, Delmarva getting hammered. again, these are just theories at this point. You have posted this before that you do not see it direct correlation with the warmth and the lack of snow. I have a theory that we will actually be much more affected by warming than places like the Delmarva or the Tennessee valley. simply because of location and because we are an extreme urban environment that doesn’t exist anywhere else in the country. You are already seeing this play out in real time. You were looking at a north south east west axis for your warming assumptions going forward. I’m looking at that plus extreme urbanization and urban heat island. I think if you move north and west of New York City, your assumptions will be more in line of a traditional axis by which the warming is moving. But I think New York City in terms of snowfall is fucked at this new warmer climate. I don’t think it’s an aberration. I don’t think it will be comparable to the 70s and 80s and 90s. I think we have seen a sharp drop off in snow due to the fact that we are now running 5 to 10° warmer on any given day then we should be. And in a cement jungle like Brooklyn (sorry MJO) you cant snow under those circumstances 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It seems like we still get 1-3 pretty commonly. We don't get the moderate 3-6 storms much anymore. Not commonly enough anymore to reach 25” in a season without a big KU event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Gfs has 10-12" in DC up to south Jersey lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: If the confluence is real and we can develop the low quickly as it goes to our south it should snow. Question would be how much is wasted on the front end due to the marginal airmass or otherwise if we struggle to get to 32. But I wouldn’t jump on any snowy solution unless other models jump on board and we hold that solution for at least 24 hours. We’ve seen time and again these lows especially southern stream trend north at the end and confluence weaken. GFS is total nonsense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, NEG NAO said: GFS is total nonsense CMC is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, Franklin0529 said: CMC is similar Cmc is further north but came south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, MJO812 said: Cmc is further north but came south Yea a big jump south. I'm still not buying it until the euro gets on board. Keep me interested for couple days. Saturday we should have better idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Cmc is further north but came south This is closer to reality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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