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February 2024


wdrag
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35 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Looks like a potentially good storm track early next week and once again no real cold air to go with it. Meanwhile 26 degrees here this morning.

Story of the last 2 yrs...cold has been very hard to come by-relying on a storm bombing in the perfect spot to deliver the goods otherwise.

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1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

You'll know this years long snow drought will end when you get a decent storm in Dec. That's pretty reliable. Yes you can get storms in other types of winters ( Feb 2006, Jan 2016 ) but a winter like this one almost never produces if it hasn't by now. You can get some events in March, late Feb that are gone as fast as they fall, and be happy with them. I don't see it this year, because it always finds a way not to produce. 

Right, it seems like what happens in December or early January is what usually repeats later in the season.

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Why is the enthusiasm so low though?

Is everyone taking a wait and see approach?

Looking to see how much multimodel support there is for this.

because when we see this not much to get enthused about because it isn't correct and other models at 0Z were wet

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

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27 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Completely agree. This is likely why KU events, outside of 55-60 and 00 through 18 are typically hard to come by. 

The issue with much warmer winters is that we have become very KU dependent for NYC to get close to 25” on the season since the 1990s. During colder winters before then, it was easier for NYC to get closer to average with a bunch of small to moderate events. But snowfall seasons like that are pretty much non-existent these days. 

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57 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Zoomed in, just for our forum, because snow, lol.  Even though there isn't much model support from the other models for this.  I'd be happy with 6" of snow over the next 15 days given how little snow we've had, so I guess we have to wait until we some other models come on board for something like this.  It is pretty though.  

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

I saved it, even if simulated snow is the only snow we get, at least we will always have this.

 

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Focusing on single op cycles vs ensembles is a probable mistake.

Consensus continues north of us for all global models snowfall so far. That's why there is no enthusiasm.  Realistic is the way to go.  

 

Generally need Nov-Dec snow to have a good winter as posted earlier. Stats support.

I hope we're not cooked, even out here in extreme nw NJ. Maybe the stats will add outlier sample of decent NYC snow by seasons end?

 

Back tonight.

 

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2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Focusing on single op cycles vs ensembles is a probable mistake.

Consensus continues north of us for all global models snowfall so far. That's why there is no enthusiasm.  Realistic is the way to go.  

 

Generally need Nov-Dec snow to have a good winter as posted earlier. Stats support.

I hope we're not cooked, even out here in extreme nw NJ. Maybe the stats will add outlier sample of decent NYC snow by seasons end?

 

Back tonight.

 

The other thing about early season snows is they typically mean that it's colder up north too.  So there is snow cover to our north, the lakes freeze earlier, etc and cold airmasses are much less modified when they get down here, resulting in colder air when the storms come and more snow for us.  This is probably why in some winters, like 1993-94 the models underestimated the amount of cold available and the storms always trended snowier and colder.  1995-96 was like this too, outside of the three week thaw in January after the big blizzard.

 

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We don't know which model is correct yet 

do you actually think its going to be raining near Scranton and the Hudson Valley and snowing in NYC Metro ?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

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6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The issue with much warmer winters is that we have become very KU dependent for NYC to get close to 25” on the season since the 1990s. During colder winters before then, it was easier for NYC to get closer to average with a bunch of small to moderate events. But snowfall seasons like that are pretty much non-existent these days. 

The only ones I remember that happened since then are 2008-09 and 2012-13.   In 2008-09, a moderate snow event in December (4"), a cold somewhat dry January with lots of minor snow events but long lasting snow cover, a February snow event that dropped another 4" and the March 1st storm that gave us 8".  Not a bad winter at all. I liked this a lot more than 2012-13 which consisted of two snow events, the one in November  which happened a week after Sandy and then the one which hit Suffolk County hard and we got sideswiped.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The issue with much warmer winters is that we have become very KU dependent for NYC to get close to 25” on the season since the 1990s. During colder winters before then, it was easier for NYC to get closer to average with a bunch of small to moderate events. But snowfall seasons like that are pretty much non-existent these days. 

To be fair, a lot of snow events in the 70 through 99 era were 20 to 25 degrees with snow. Those events would still be snow today, and likely higher amounts due to higher moisture content.

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NYC Statistics on the Number of Snow Events:

Early Recorded Climate:
1869-1870 through 1898-1899:
1"-3" days: 8.5 per winter
6"+ days: 1.0 per winter

More Recent Climate:
1961-1962 through 1990-1991:
1"-3" days: 4.7 per winter
6"+ days: 0.7 per winter

1991-1992 through 2020-2021:
1"-3" days: 3.8 per winter
6"+ days: 1.4 per winter

 

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28 minutes ago, wdrag said:

06z/8 EPS + snow depth change... warrants continued restraint on expectations I80 NYC LI. Click for clarity..

Screen Shot 2024-02-08 at 8.16.53 AM.png

this has been the same map all winter.

Guys are searching for a unicorn it’s just too warm to snow anymore in the New York City metro. 

even with this pattern change that everybody’s been talking about for so many weeks, there’s no cold air. Just average temps

 

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2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

this has been the same map all winter.

Guys are searching for a unicorn it’s just too warm to snow anymore in the New York City metro. 

even with this pattern change that everybody’s been talking about for so many weeks, there’s no cold air. Just average temps

 

If that's the case averages are in the low to mid 40's by then....that coupled with the data about having no snow by late January (The season tends to not produce if that's the case) then it might be about over...

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36 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

do you actually think its going to be raining near Scranton and the Hudson Valley and snowing in NYC Metro ?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

The map could reflect the scenario where it could be snowing where precipitation is falling more heavily and raining elsewhere. While it's possible that the event could end as some wet snow in and around the NYC area and adjacent NJ, if the MOS forecasts are accurate, the ratios would be very low resulting in little or no accumulation (probably none in the City). This is yet another marginal air mass, at best.

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If that's the case averages are in the low to mid 40's by then....that coupled with the data about having no snow by late January (The season tends to not produce if that's the case) then it might be about over...

 Im a timing guy. Re historical snow season: You have 4 weeks from today give or take. Maybe 4.5 weeks. So yes, coming to the end one way or another

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I don’ think we’ll have clarity 4 days out on this one.  I think model runs will be all over until gametime.  We have to careful not to bite on any particular one, but we are getting three or four runs per day that are closer.  Maybe there will be something later to latch onto if this one doesn't’ work out.

like this

image.thumb.png.23236c943d55ae6f59d5c1a25be24c28.png

or like this one

image.thumb.png.e2761bae8d27eb55c3e5da06639a003a.png

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42 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

To be fair, a lot of snow events in the 70 through 99 era were 20 to 25 degrees with snow. Those events would still be snow today, and likely higher amounts due to higher moisture content.

how are we going to get those events if we struggle to get airmasses like that

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16th/17th and beyond have more of my interest. Cold air will finally be funneling in with the 16th/17th possible event which could give us some minor accumulations, but really sets us up for something to tap into should something develop in the longer run. With our luck it'll just be wasted cold air

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The issue with much warmer winters is that we have become very KU dependent for NYC to get close to 25” on the season since the 1990s. During colder winters before then, it was easier for NYC to get closer to average with a bunch of small to moderate events. But snowfall seasons like that are pretty much non-existent these days. 

and now we're in a borderline super nino which is raising the baseline again

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26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC Statistics on the Number of Snow Events:

Early Recorded Climate:
1869-1870 through 1898-1899:
1"-3" days: 6.2 per winter
6"+ days: 1.0 per winter

More Recent Climate:
1961-1962 through 1990-1991:
1"-3" days: 4.7 per winter
6"+ days: 0.7 per winter

1991-1992 through 2020-2021:
1"-3" days: 3.7 per winter
6"+ days: 1.4 per winter

 

Thanks Don!

The decline in 1 to 3 coupled with the increase of 6+ really shows the effects of increased moisture/dynamics resulting from temps.

Do you happen to have 1890 through 1960?

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Im not enthused about the 13th. I suspect the GFS will correct north and warmer today or tomorrow.

 

I am however slightly enthused about Feb. 18-22. That's our best shot if confluence doesn't kill it.

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8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don!

The decline in 1 to 3 coupled with the increase of 6+ really shows the effects of increased moisture/dynamics resulting from temps.

Do you happen to have 1890 through 1960?

IMO it's not the decline in 1-3 thats a big deal, it's the decline in 3-6 thats the real issue here.  a bunch of 3-6 storms add up quickly and thats what we've really lacked

 

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5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

how are we going to get those events if we struggle to get airmasses like that

This is where my thoughts diverge from some.

I believe GW is linear, with repeated patterns from the past reoccurring with higher temps. I do not subscribe to outright regime shifts where patterns from the past can no longer exist.

Caveat MAY be large urban areas where HIA plays a larger role in EC, especially early/late season. However, I need more time/seasons to digest.

Please keep in mind, I grew up in the 85 through 99 years where snowfall seemed next impossible (even wearing short sleeve shirts one January in the early 90s). Therefore, the last two years are not a shock to my system, but rather a familiar pattern that I lived through.

 

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9 minutes ago, ag3 said:

Im not enthused about the 13th. I suspect the GFS will correct north and warmer today or tomorrow.

 

I am however slightly enthused about Feb. 18-22. That's our best shot if confluence doesn't kill it.

Every other model is north of the GFS. It might be in its overly suppressed mode 5 days out which sometimes results in it being shown well OTS but this time it means major hit for us. Very high likelihood it corrects back north later today or tomorrow. I don’t see really anything to keep it from favoring New England, and probably NNE at that. 

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1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

do you actually think its going to be raining near Scranton and the Hudson Valley and snowing in NYC Metro ?

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.png

Good morning everyone. That’s actually an illustration from the primer coloring book, ‘Meteorology for Weenies’ it explains how the intense storm draws in all the cold air from the surrounding areas thus changing the perimeter to rain. The book was dedicated to JB and ritually burned by S19. Stay well and hopeful, as always ……

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30 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I don’ think we’ll have clarity 4 days out on this one.  I think model runs will be all over until gametime.  We have to careful not to bite on any particular one, but we are getting three or four runs per day that are closer.  Maybe there will be something later to latch onto if this one doesn't’ work out.

like this

image.thumb.png.23236c943d55ae6f59d5c1a25be24c28.png

or like this one

image.thumb.png.e2761bae8d27eb55c3e5da06639a003a.png

Only the 0Z and 12Z runs should be taken seriously since they contain new Radiosonde Data which is a very important data input into these models 6Z and 18Z contain old stale data

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