RU848789 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: 18Z GFS clown map Remember, a big chunk of TT's "snow" is actually sleet being counted as 10:1 snow, as you can see from the Pivotal map for the same timeframe, where they only report snowfall, which is much less than for TT (sleet is omitted, which is its own separate problem, as that doesn't paint the whole frozen precip picture and the sleet mass is the same as the snow mass and almost as impactful). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah. This really isn’t a stretch. Pretty much everything you want to see for a busy season lining up. Does that mean we get hit? Of course not, but it does mean a prolific swell season for area beaches regardless of tracks. In most such hyperactive seasons we don't get hit. We didn't in 2005 or 2020 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Weenie run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weenie run Don't do it!!! Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weenie run Funny enough a more southern track is probably more likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Funny enough a more southern track is probably more likely. Ensembles also showed this. Still long ways out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Petition to not start a topic about this upcoming event, I'm afraid it will jinx it again. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, David-LI said: Petition to not start a topic about this upcoming event, I'm afraid it will jinx it again. Not until the day before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Snowman still out here handing out weenies like he works for Nathan's smh 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Funny enough a more southern track is probably more likely. I think amped is more likely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: Snowman still out here handing out weenies like he works for Nathan's smh It took him nearly 15 minutes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Could the GFS and CMC be any more different? And yes, 10:1 is likely on the high end but at >1" per hour snowfall rates, melting should be minimal and snow growth should be excellent, so Kuchera probably underdoes ratios. Of course, if no snow falls like on the CMC ratios probably aren't that important, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, dseagull said: It's coming.... I caught jonah crabs in my crab pots today. They generally start showing up around now for their late winter and early spring migration into the bay and then back out to 60 feet of water. But... they don't usually show up in these numbers until March. Very good news, because as great as they are for Tautog bait, they are also excellent table fare. Mother nature always shows her hand with natural signs. If youre an early riser and have a few decades under your belt, you know the feeling on the morning walk. It is still crisp but brighter and the sun feels real good even with a stiff breeze. Spring is in the air 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, the_other_guy said: If youre an early riser and have a few decades under your belt, you know the feeling on the morning walk. It is still crisp but brighter and the sun feels real good even with a stiff breeze. Spring is in the air Yes, and the days are noticeably longer on both ends (the sky is starting to get brighter before 6:30 am and stays bright after 5 pm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I think amped is more likely I mean I'm not getting my hopes up. Not really feeling the coming pattern either. Pacific still looks crappy to me. Really lacking a classic Rockies/Western ridge to deliver the goods here. Its been years since we've seen that. March probably has better odds to deliver as a poor Pacific is less of a detriment by then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I mean I'm not getting my hopes up. Not really feeling the coming pattern either. Pacific still looks crappy to me. Really lacking a classic Rockies/Western ridge to deliver the goods here. Its been years since we've seen that. March probably has better odds to deliver as a poor Pacific is less of a detriment by then. The pna is rising . This has a chance but it's a slim chance. Good model runs tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 I think the 0Z GFS should be tossed after seeing that MECS on it for next week and now this 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I mean I'm not getting my hopes up. Not really feeling the coming pattern either. Pacific still looks crappy to me. Really lacking a classic Rockies/Western ridge to deliver the goods here. Its been years since we've seen that. March probably has better odds to deliver as a poor Pacific is less of a detriment by then. well the pattern is supposed to peak at the end of February and early March when the greatest effects of the SSW plus the pattern change both converge so that may be the best time regardless. and it's not like that's without precedent, a few of our recent bad winters had their only snow event in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 14 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The pna is rising . This has a chance but it's a slim chance. Good model runs tonight Gfs is the coldest and alone. Red flag that its wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Gfs is the coldest and alone. Red flag that its wrongThe euro hasn't run yetSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markyk Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 UKIE is not that far off from the GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 45 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Could the GFS and CMC be any more different? And yes, 10:1 is likely on the high end but at >1" per hour snowfall rates, melting should be minimal and snow growth should be excellent, so Kuchera probably underdoes ratios. Of course, if no snow falls like on the CMC ratios probably aren't that important, lol. I mean it's closer to the gfs than the cmc sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Forget about snow early next week Euro says NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 GFS hit Ukie just north euro way north talking nyc proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Just now, Snowlover11 said: GFS hit Ukie just north euro way north talking nyc proper. when the worst model is the only hit - time to start looking down the road for other possibilities which there are none as of now - Presidents Day is too far away and the EURO the day before 2/18 does not look impressive 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Even the cold is not impressive on the EURO 2/18 most of it locked up in Canada 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 3 hours ago, Snowlover11 said: GFS hit Ukie just north euro way north talking nyc proper. Euro is slightly south than 12z Gfs is even south of 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 Pd3! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is slightly south than 12z Gfs is even south of 0z South trend is more likely. AO is tanking 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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