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3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS clown map 

gfs_asnow_neus_47.png

Remember, a big chunk of TT's "snow" is actually sleet being counted as 10:1 snow, as you can see from the Pivotal map for the same timeframe, where they only report snowfall, which is much less than for TT (sleet is omitted, which is its own separate problem, as that doesn't paint the whole frozen precip picture and the sleet mass is the same as the snow mass and almost as impactful).  

 

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

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5 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah. This really isn’t a stretch. Pretty much everything you want to see for a busy season lining up. Does that mean we get hit? Of course not, but it does mean a prolific swell season for area beaches regardless of tracks. 

In most such hyperactive seasons we don't get hit.  We didn't in 2005 or 2020 either.

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Could the GFS and CMC be any more different?  And yes, 10:1 is likely on the high end but at >1" per hour snowfall rates, melting should be minimal and snow growth should be excellent, so Kuchera probably underdoes ratios.  Of course, if no snow falls like on the CMC ratios probably aren't that important, lol.  

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

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1 hour ago, dseagull said:

It's coming....   I caught jonah crabs in my crab pots today.   They generally start showing up around now for their late winter and early spring migration into the bay and then back out to 60 feet of water.  But... they don't usually show up in these numbers until March.  Very good news, because as great as they are for Tautog bait, they are also excellent table fare.   

 

Mother nature always shows her hand with natural signs. 

If youre an early riser and have a few decades under your belt, you know the feeling on the morning walk. It is still crisp but brighter and the sun feels real good even with a stiff breeze. Spring is in the air

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Just now, the_other_guy said:

If youre an early riser and have a few decades under your belt, you know the feeling on the morning walk. It is still crisp but brighter and the sun feels real good even with a stiff breeze. Spring is in the air

Yes, and the days are noticeably longer on both ends (the sky is starting to get brighter before 6:30 am and stays bright after 5 pm).

 

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23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

I think amped is more likely

I mean I'm not getting my hopes up. Not really feeling the coming pattern either. Pacific still looks crappy to me. 

Really lacking a classic Rockies/Western ridge to deliver the goods here. Its been years since we've seen that. 

March probably has better odds to deliver as a poor Pacific is less of a detriment by then. 

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I mean I'm not getting my hopes up. Not really feeling the coming pattern either. Pacific still looks crappy to me. 

Really lacking a classic Rockies/Western ridge to deliver the goods here. Its been years since we've seen that. 

March probably has better odds to deliver as a poor Pacific is less of a detriment by then. 

The pna is rising . This has a chance but it's a slim chance.

Good model runs tonight 

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14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I mean I'm not getting my hopes up. Not really feeling the coming pattern either. Pacific still looks crappy to me. 

Really lacking a classic Rockies/Western ridge to deliver the goods here. Its been years since we've seen that. 

March probably has better odds to deliver as a poor Pacific is less of a detriment by then. 

well the pattern is supposed to peak at the end of February and early March when the greatest effects of the SSW plus the pattern change both converge so that may be the best time regardless.

and it's not like that's without precedent, a few of our recent bad winters had their only snow event in early March.

 

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45 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Could the GFS and CMC be any more different?  And yes, 10:1 is likely on the high end but at >1" per hour snowfall rates, melting should be minimal and snow growth should be excellent, so Kuchera probably underdoes ratios.  Of course, if no snow falls like on the CMC ratios probably aren't that important, lol.  

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_ne_s.png

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne.png

I mean it's closer to the gfs than the cmc sure

sn10_acc-imp.us_ne (18).png

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Just now, Snowlover11 said:

GFS hit

Ukie just north

euro way north

talking nyc proper.

when the worst model is the only hit - time to start looking down the road for other possibilities which there are none as of now - Presidents Day is too far away and the EURO the day before 2/18 does not look impressive

prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp.conus.png

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