donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Wonder who that is...LOL JB is one of the three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Euro is rain. Either give me a 2 feet blizzard or give me spring already please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 GEFS is so loaded. has the MECS signal around the 23rd, too 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, David-LI said: Euro is rain. Either give me a 2 feet blizzard or give me spring already please. I'm tired of rain. Winter should only feature snow and the other months rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: THIS is a much better look NIce - but what do you see happening here in regards to sensible weather ? Down here on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, NEG NAO said: NIce - but what do you see happening here in regards to sensible weather ? Down here on the ground this shows split flow, with moist air from the STJ meeting up with powerful confluence from the 50/50 ULL. might not be a very powerful LP, but the thermal gradient could lead to a lot of precip. the 50/50 locks in the cold, as well 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm tired of rain. Winter should only feature snow and the other months rain. Enjoying the drier pattern here this week for as long as we can get it. It was the first time I walked on the grass and I didn’t start sinking into the mushy ground below in a while. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS is so loaded. has the MECS signal around the 23rd, too Is there a reason snowman finds this funny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Enjoying the drier pattern here this week for as long as we can get it. It was the first time I walked on the grass and I didn’t start sinking into the mushy ground below in a while. Not to mention 5 days of almost clear skies after 10 days overcast and 40 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, Blue Dream said: Is there a reason snowman finds this funny? b/c it's the long range. we've been chasing the LR since Thanksgiving with 2 inches of snow to show for it. Hope it happens but there's reason to be skeptical given the winter to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Enjoying the drier pattern here this week for as long as we can get it. It was the first time I walked on the grass and I didn’t start sinking into the mushy ground below in a while. Definitely as much a top ten day as you can get in February. Might as well enjoy that vs get depressed about another trash winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 24 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is awful This was never the one for us, the air mass is terrible. Now if the storm on the 19th misses that's a different story. That one's been on long ranch guidance for what seems like forever. Pattern change still looks good for next week, enjoy the beautiful weather an wait it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is awful Nice clipper Friday and now sets up the storm for president day weekend… Monday is gone bro, let it go. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nice clipper Friday and now sets up the storm for president day weekend… Monday is gone bro, let it go. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nice clipper Friday and now sets up the storm for president day weekend… Monday is gone bro, let it go. Monday’s always been a bonus. Need a lot to go exactly right. But very encouraging that the good pattern and storm threats are staying on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 20 minutes ago, bluewave said: Enjoying the drier pattern here this week for as long as we can get it. It was the first time I walked on the grass and I didn’t start sinking into the mushy ground below in a while. or have the dogs track mud all over the house..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: or have the dogs track mud all over the house..... Been below frz here the past few nights which have helped dry things up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Wake me up when one of these epic computer modulated patterns and digital snow actually verifies the patterns? that's easy. here you go! they actually all verified, look at that unfortunately, great patterns do not guarantee snow. they only increase the odds. something can always go wrong, and we have had really bad luck. but you already know this and are being purposefully inflammatory 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 17 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Nice clipper Friday and now sets up the storm for president day weekend… Monday is gone bro, let it go. this is apparently "awful" now. god bless 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is apparently "awful" now. god bless Not saying it’s a slam dunk but our attention should be towards that threat. Plus the pattern around that weekend is looking less suppressive now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Allsnow said: Not saying it’s a slam dunk but our attention should be towards that threat. Plus the pattern around that weekend is looking less suppressive now it isn't, but you have a very potent southern stream vort, fresh Arctic cold, and a potential phase with a northern stream vort. plus the 50/50 ULL. pieces are in place 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Not saying it’s a slam dunk but our attention should be towards that threat. Plus the pattern around that weekend is looking less suppressive now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I still stand by my prediction… 60’s this weekend and not getting out of the 20’s the following weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the patterns? that's easy. here you go! they actually all verified, look at that unfortunately, great patterns do not guarantee snow. they only increase the odds. something can always go wrong, and we have had really bad luck. but you already know this and are being purposefully inflammatory 2000 through 2018 skewed expectations. 70 through 99 showed how these setups can fail/give us light to moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is apparently "awful" now. god bless My concern this early on (and things should improve afterward) is that the above 500 mb chart is quite similar to a period that also was a "miss" as far as snowfall was concerned for the NYC and Philadelphia areas: February 17-March 3, 1958. New York City: Precipitation: 1.95"; Snow: 0.5" Philadelphia: Precipitation: 1.97"; Snow: Trace 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: My concern this early on (and things should improve afterward) is that the above 500 mb chart is quite similar to a period that also was a "miss" as far as snowfall was concerned for the NYC and Philadelphia areas: February 17-March 3, 1958. New York City: Precipitation: 1.95"; Snow: 0.5" Philadelphia: Precipitation: 1.97"; Snow: Trace Yeah that looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: the patterns? that's easy. here you go! they actually all verified, look at that unfortunately, great patterns do not guarantee snow. they only increase the odds. something can always go wrong, and we have had really bad luck. but you already know this and are being purposefully inflammatory Unfortunately, the Pacific was too overpowering in those examples you cited for a big snow event. January had too much of a trough out West so we only got a few small events which was probably the best we could have hoped for. Last March the interior wound up with the big 40” special. December 2022 featured one the most negative -AO patterns we have seen during a La Niña. But the previous ones in 1995,2000, 2005, and 2010 did much better. Plus we had the block become more south based around storm time later in December 2022 linking up with the Southeast ridge .So I disagree that luck had much to do with this. It was a product of the type of patterns we have been getting in recent years which have been very hostile to snowfall. I still believe late February into early March will at least provide a window when NYC can get its first 4”+ or even 6”+ event or multiple events in years. But it’s not a guarantee. This is the first time we have a forecast for a solid STJ and blocking to combine in a while. We’ll just need the Pacific to back off for a long enough interval while the blocking pattern is still in effect. I think its doable. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: My concern this early on (and things should improve afterward) is that the above 500 mb chart is quite similar to a period that also was a "miss" as far as snowfall was concerned for the NYC and Philadelphia areas: February 17-March 3, 1958. New York City: Precipitation: 1.95"; Snow: 0.5" Philadelphia: Precipitation: 1.97"; Snow: Trace there was a HECS on Feb 15-17, though, and one in late March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Wake me up when one of these epic computer modulated patterns and digital snow actually verifies Isn't this forum designed for discussing patterns, even patterns that are weeks out? It seems kind of disingenuous to disparage those who are posting well reasoned thoughts about future patterns. Same goes for those that post future torch patterns such as yourself, you shouldn't be ridiculed for that either. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: My concern this early on (and things should improve afterward) is that the above 500 mb chart is quite similar to a period that also was a "miss" as far as snowfall was concerned for the NYC and Philadelphia areas: February 17-March 3, 1958. New York City: Precipitation: 1.95"; Snow: 0.5" Philadelphia: Precipitation: 1.97"; Snow: Trace Are their similar periods that weren't a miss that you can point out, or just this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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