Great Snow 1717 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, RU848789 said: Yeah, I'm 61 and still love the cold and snow and don't imagine that ever changing. I'm retired and am outside for several hours per day at least 5 days a week between disc golf, soccer, and doing little day trips with my wife. Obviously, someday I'll be less mobile, but until then I love getting outdoors. I also do not imaging my love for cold and snow ever changing...well until SNE becomes the Hilton Head of the north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The final storm total at UCLA was 14.20". It was an unbelievable event. Wonder what the return period is for totals like that? Any Idea Don? Any records set with that total? Single storm? Month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 13 minutes ago, MANDA said: Wonder what the return period is for totals like that? Any Idea Don? Any records set with that total? Single storm? Month? The two-day figure was > 1 in 1,000 years. I don't have access to UCLA's older data, but the two-day figure was a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 hours ago, RU848789 said: I wouldn't start a thread either, as we're still pretty far out and even the "snowy" models have significant thermal issues that would likely significantly reduce accumulation, plus we've only really had one model suite (last night) with just about every model showing at least moderate accumulating snow (at 10:1 ratios). I'd want to see at least some consistency for another cycle or two, i.e., maybe after tonight's 0Z runs, which would put us about 5 days before the event is likely to start. Just my opinion and I'd absolutely defer to Walt on this. Today's rainstorms for 95% of this subforum from the 12Z GFS and CMC are what I was afraid of and reasons why not to start a thread yet. Nobody is saying there's no chance of snow for NYC metro/95/coast, but we'd need to see a lot more consensus snow in multiple model cycles to have any such confidence and we're nowhere near that now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks like this could potentially be an impressive wind event as the GFS develops a sting jet-like feature for the coastal sections behind the departing low. Yup, otherwise unless you’re north of I-84 it’s another washout. Marginal at best airmass going in, SE ridge/no blocking/West ridge axis too far west will likely mean either it tracks too far north and/or a late bloomer. Our opportunity further south comes later if this pattern change really happens. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The two-day figure was > 1 in 1,000 years. I don't have access to UCLA's older data, but the two-day figure was a record. Was going to guess once in a 500 year return. Wow, that is really impressive. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Same with OSHA chemical incident investigations/reports (they're similar to the NTSB reports conceptually), which was my field when I was working at Merck, having been the director of the group responsible for chemical process safety testing and evaluations for new processes progressing through R&D and eventually going to manufacturing sites (if a new drug was successful). After action reviews, done well, can be eye opening to pre-incident errors in systems, judgment and analysis, often revealing biases and lack of attention to detail from key actors in these incidents and we used them liberally as teaching tools in trying to ensure that our staffs doing the testing and evaluations weren't subject to bias and/or overlooking key factors. We didn't have any significant incidents during that time, fortunately. Excellent and well stated! Anyone can start a thread but I prefer to start those that have a better assurance of at least half the subforum accurate verification for a long lead time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Mon-Tues has inland runner written all over it, still a terrible pattern 6 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 No time to look but on wind. All should be aware that CPC has had us in a slight chance of a big wind event 14th-roughly 18th. Just go to CPC hazards and the probabilistic elements and you’ll see wind flagged in the northeast. If we eventually thread something it might be primarily damaging wind In any case I can’t look closely til 630pm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Mon-Tues has inland runner written all over it, still a terrible pattern cool story bro 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The problem we keep having this winter is too many storms keep happening right at the start of pattern transitions...that said, this one has a chance still to produce for the coast more than the previous 2-3 instances did 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 THIS is a much better look 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Mon-Tues has inland runner written all over it, still a terrible pattern We know. You don't gotta copy an paste this guy's tweets everyday 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Mon-Tues has inland runner written all over it, still a terrible pattern Who the hell is Tomer Burg and why should anybody care what he thinks? 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Who the hell is Tomer Burg and why should anybody care what he thinks? Twitter has an expert for everything ya know.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Who the hell is Tomer Burg and why should anybody care what he thinks? I dunno just a guy with a Bachelor’s and Master’s in meteorology, who’s currently going for a Ph.D. in meteorology. You know…someone who really knows his stuff. Someone you might want to listen to. Just saying…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vegan_edible Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, snowman19 said: I dunno just a guy with a Bachelor’s and Master’s in meteorology, who’s currently going for a Ph.D. In meteorology. You know…someone who really knows his stuff. Someone you might want to listen to. Just saying…. you could post winning lottery numbers and some select individuals would still hit you with oscar meyer mode 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Mon-Tues has inland runner written all over it, still a terrible pattern So you agree areas well south of NYC will be favored going forward after mid month? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 looks like we have transitioned to a classic retrograding Scandi block... opens the door for an event in the 19-20 timeframe due to an initially less suppressive waveguide 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: So you agree areas well south of NYC will be favored going forward after mid month? Yes I do. Just like I think Mon-Tues is an awful snow pattern still for here 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 42 minutes ago, wdrag said: Excellent and well stated! Anyone can start a thread but I prefer to start those that have a better assurance of at least half the subforum accurate verification for a long lead time. Walt - think you might have accidentally replied to my post on chemical incidents, which was spurred by your excellent post on NTSB incidents. Also, tried to send you an IM, but the site says you can't receive IMs - was wondering if that's just something you had set up or not activated. Nothing earth shattering - just a question or two on the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 The clock continues to run when it comes to seasonal snowfall prospects. The below chart illustrates how things stood after January 31st and where things could stand after February 15th. That is historic data. Just as records can be broken, outcomes could diverge. But it makes sense to be grounded by the data until there is compelling evidence otherwise. On perhaps a more hopeful note, there have been 11 non-overlapping periods during February 15-March 15 (1950-2023) where the AO fell to -3 or below while the EPO and NAO were negative and the PNA was positive for two days or longer. For the time frame covered by those periods through 10 days following those periods the outcomes were as follows for New York City: Measurable snowfall: 82% of cases Daily snowfall of 1" or more: 73% of cases Daily snowfall of 4" or more: 55% of cases Daily snowfall of 6" or more: 45% of cases Worst period: March 9-22, 1970: Trace Best period: February 15-22, 2010 through March 4, 2010: 20.9" snowstorm (10"+ snowstorms also occurred in March 1958 and March 1960) It should also be noted that March 5-7, 1962 through March 17, 1962 was a "near miss" as a big cutoff low brought heavy snow to parts of the Middle Atlantic region while NYC saw only 0.2". February 13-14, 2024: In terms of the upcoming storm, the odds favor mainly or perhaps all rain for NYC. Any snow would likely be low- to very low-ratio wet snow given the forecast temperatures. Soundings will become important later as the event draws closer. February 15, 2024 and Beyond: A "battle" between historical outcomes and outcomes based on the forecast teleconnections could lie ahead. The historical outcomes would favor an increased likelihood of storms taking a more southerly route for a time resulting in perhaps higher snowfall in such cities as Baltimore and Washington than New York City or Boston. Then, as the block decays, storm tracks should shift northward. Whether that would happen in time for something notable remains to be seen. Overall Thinking: The cold period, which should run into at least the first week of March, will likely feature several light snow events and perhaps a moderate event (3"-4") for New York City. For now, until there is strong and sustained support on the guidance, historical experience with consideration for the forecast teleconnections is probably a reasonable approach. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 26 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Who the hell is Tomer Burg and why should anybody care what he thinks? A pretty good meteorologist 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 40 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Who the hell is Tomer Burg and why should anybody care what he thinks? He's a PhD student at the University of Oklahoma and is really knowledgeable. His insights are consistently good. He puts accuracy ahead of making bold, splashy claims, the latter of which usually fail to materialize due to their nature as extreme outliers. IMO, he's a lot more credible than the 2-3 high profile accounts for whom seemingly all cold is epic, all snowstorms are legendary, and all events are extreme. Every cold pattern is not a repeat of 1985, 1994, or 2016. Every snowstorm is not a recurrence of the Blizzards of 1888 or 1978. Every 500 mb trough is not a recurrence of February 2010. 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 he's definitely a big downplayer, good example was when he was saying the Poconos were favored for Feb 2021... we got 18-24" and they got 30" lmao like really? like yes, technically, but it was not a NW of I-95 storm in the classical sense but yeah he knows what he's talking about. very smart guy. better with data IMO, he can flop around quite a bit on his ideas with individual storms. very mercurial 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 13 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: He's a PhD student at the University of Oklahoma and is really knowledgeable. His insights are consistently good. He puts accuracy ahead of making bold, splashy claims, the latter of which usually fail to materialize due to their nature as extreme outliers. IMO, he's a lot more credible than the 2-3 high profile accounts for whom seemingly all cold is epic, all snowstorms are legendary, and all events are extreme. Every cold pattern is not a repeat of 1985, 1994, or 2016. Every snowstorm is not a recurrence of the Blizzards of 1888 or 1978. Every 500 mb trough is not a recurrence of February 2010. Wonder who that is...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: he's definitely a big downplayer, good example was when he was saying the Poconos were favored for Feb 2021... we got 18-24" and they got 30" lmao like really? like yes, technically, but it was not a NW of I-95 storm in the classical sense but yeah he knows what he's talking about. very smart guy. better with data IMO, he can flop around quite a bit on his ideas with individual storms. very mercurial Thanks for being the voice of reason, lot of debs on this forum 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Euro is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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