February 2024

[RU848789]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

But as Walt mentioned its not good enough for a thread because this clown map you are displaying is misleading as to what actually would fall and stick ........

I wouldn't start a thread either, as we're still pretty far out and even the "snowy" models have significant thermal issues that would likely significantly reduce accumulation, plus we've only really had one model suite (last night) with just about every model showing at least moderate accumulating snow (at 10:1 ratios).  I'd want to see at least some consistency for another cycle or two, i.e., maybe after tonight's 0Z runs, which would put us about 5 days before the event is likely to start.  Just my opinion and I'd absolutely defer to Walt on this.  

[wdrag]

Sigh...  Can I ask to lower excitement.  Think of yourselves in the cockpit of a 737 and you blow out a door.  Composure wins... good learning experience for those up and coming in life to maintain vigilance, follow procedures and ensembled guidance for a safer approach both work and family, an approach that can be at least a partial win for the large adjunct Atlantic Ocean subforum and subsequently a more positive outcome.  Yesterdays CNN has details of the Cockpit Voice Recorder on how that 737 door incident was handled. Calm-procedural.  For me that will have to be ensembled and remember the Canadian has to have it (my relearned lesson AGAIN the past failed thread)

Modeling for the 06z/7 GFS op doesn't fit the ensembled short wave scenario (intensity and therefor big dump in a few hours). If the resulting storm is weaker, less advection fields, less lift, etc etc. Give this a chance. Ptype and T at D6 can be a little shaky and for snow, its a fine line, as we all know. 

On snow depth: That's all that was available for the smaller geography shown but we have none now, so consider that a start for adding some snow. Back tonight.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Sigh...  Can I ask to lower excitement.  Think of yourselves in the cockpit of a 737 and you blow out a door.  Composure wins... good learning experience for those up and coming in life to maintain vigilance, follow procedures and ensembled guidance for a safer approach both work and family, an approach that can be at least a partial win for the large adjunct Atlantic Ocean subforum and subsequently a more positive outcome.  Yesterdays CNN has details of the Cockpit Voice Recorder on how that 737 door incident was handled. Calm-procedural.  For me that will have to be ensembled and remember the Canadian has to have it (my relearned lesson AGAIN the past failed thread)

Modeling for the 06z/7 GFS op doesn't fit the ensembled short wave scenario (intensity and therefor big dump in a few hours). If the resulting storm is weaker, less advection fields, less lift, etc etc. Give this a chance. Ptype and T at D6 can be a little shaky and for snow, its a fine line, as we all know. 

On snow depth: That's all that was available for the smaller geography shown but we have none now, so consider that a start for adding some snow. Back tonight.

I hope you are not referring to me at almost 69 years of age..........I am just a grouchy old man........

[wdrag]

For those who want a big one that is less Thread the Needle  so to speak, I like a big upper low formed off DE traveling out to the bench mark, having been formed from short waves diving se from the upper midwest and joining forces with a southern streamer and timing out to our south.  Those are the ones with large areal deep snows, plenty of 850MB easterly flow (50kt) and presumably cold enough surface high to the north. 

This one coming up doesn't look like that... it has hope if the latitude can be us. I'm sure 3+ between I80 and Montreal as is WPC via their implied D6-7 in their 10% two days of 3+ in the northeast.  For now, it's not worth a thread for me.

[wdrag]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I hope you are not referring to me at almost 69 years of age..........I am just a grouchy old man........

No specific reference; It's a forum.  I get excited too, but too many failures direct me to restrain my spoken thoughts. For now, I dont know exactly what is ahead except it's worthy to monitor but for a wider area than just our NYC subforum.  For sure, this future is looking a little better than December.  

[wdrag]

Also, I think there is a lot to learn from NTSB aircraft incident reports...the way they are investigated, written, referenced. 

[Allsnow]

All the 06z idv are hideous 

[hooralph]

6 hours ago, RU848789 said:

And just to whet people's appetites for the long range tracking marathon...

 

PD3

Jefferson's Revenge  

 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All the 06z idv are hideous 

they don't exactly go out far enough. there are a bunch of trailing lows pretty far south and off the coast. the snowfall mean at 150hr at 00z had basically nothing, as well

for the record, I think this favors I-84 northward, but there's no reason why we shouldn't keep an eye on it

[Brasiluvsnow]

26 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Sigh...  Can I ask to lower excitement.  Think of yourselves in the cockpit of a 737 and you blow out a door.  Composure wins... good learning experience for those up and coming in life to maintain vigilance, follow procedures and ensembled guidance for a safer approach both work and family, an approach that can be at least a partial win for the large adjunct Atlantic Ocean subforum and subsequently a more positive outcome.  Yesterdays CNN has details of the Cockpit Voice Recorder on how that 737 door incident was handled. Calm-procedural.  For me that will have to be ensembled and remember the Canadian has to have it (my relearned lesson AGAIN the past failed thread)

Modeling for the 06z/7 GFS op doesn't fit the ensembled short wave scenario (intensity and therefor big dump in a few hours). If the resulting storm is weaker, less advection fields, less lift, etc etc. Give this a chance. Ptype and T at D6 can be a little shaky and for snow, its a fine line, as we all know. 

On snow depth: That's all that was available for the smaller geography shown but we have none now, so consider that a start for adding some snow. Back tonight.

 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All the 06z idv are hideous 

Could be too amped. There is certainly 2 camps. Keep expectations low right now.

[wdrag]

One error on sigh and composure- ensembles... The CNN voice is between aircraft and Air Traffic Control.  The Cockpit Voice Recorder which I think holds 2 or more hours of sound was overwritten, which must be some sort of airline/FAA procedural oversight on saving that data. Still, it's instructive. 

Let's go snow!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

But as Walt mentioned its not good enough for a thread because this clown map you are displaying is misleading as to what actually would fall and stick ........

Snow never sticks in urban areas anyway unless it's very heavy snow in the middle of winter.

It's time to measure what falls as snow rather than what accumulates on UHI infected ground.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I don't really see anyone use the snow depth map for their forecasts. 

In cases like this (and for most of the events so far this season for that matter) they should be.  Far better in marginal situations than 10:1 maps / Kuchera.  It situations like this those 10:1 maps are pure folly and you are only setting yourself up for disappointment.  To each his own I guess.

[LibertyBell]

56 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

All the 06z idv are hideous 

It was interesting to see Judah Cohen's 10 minute interview just now on the weather channel.

They congratulated him on being the "long range champion" and said he was the only one to correctly forecast the 2-3 week arctic shot in January.

Cohen went on to say that he believes the SSW will be a weaker version of what happened in January and that he sees this one as being more notable for cold rather than snow.

He said this has been an amazing winter for the stratosphere, though the results have not always made it to ground level.

[rclab]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

I hope you are not referring to me at almost 69 years of age..........I am just a grouchy old man........

Good morning NN. You’ll be fine. I’m two months short off 77 and have passed through grouchy and am now settled in the blessed world of numb. Stay well and positive. As always …

[RU848789]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Also, I think there is a lot to learn from NTSB aircraft incident reports...the way they are investigated, written, referenced. 

Same with OSHA chemical incident investigations/reports (they're similar to the NTSB reports conceptually), which was my field when I was working at Merck, having been the director of the group responsible for chemical process safety testing and evaluations for new processes progressing through R&D and eventually going to manufacturing sites (if a new drug was successful).  After action reviews, done well, can be eye opening to pre-incident errors in systems, judgment and analysis, often revealing biases and lack of attention to detail from key actors in these incidents and we used them liberally as teaching tools in trying to ensure that our staffs doing the testing and evaluations weren't subject to bias and/or overlooking key factors.  We didn't have any significant incidents during that time, fortunately. 

[IrishRob17]

38 minutes ago, MANDA said:

In cases like this (and for most of the events so far this season for that matter) they should be.  Far better in marginal situations than 10:1 maps / Kuchera.  It situations like this those 10:1 maps are pure folly and you are only setting yourself up for disappointment.  To each his own I guess.

Agreed, I look at them on a regular basis.

[bluewave]

Really impressive STJ event for SOCAL.

 

 

[MJO812]

Gfs coming in more amped

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs coming in more amped

Rain.  it's in the 50's and 60's in the days before the storm-where's any cold air coming from?

[MJO812]

Cutter on cmc and gfs

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Same with OSHA chemical incident investigations/reports (they're similar to the NTSB reports conceptually), which was my field when I was working at Merck, having been the director of the group responsible for chemical process safety testing and evaluations for new processes progressing through R&D and eventually going to manufacturing sites (if a new drug was successful).  After action reviews, done well, can be eye opening to pre-incident errors in systems, judgment and analysis, often revealing biases and lack of attention to detail from key actors in these incidents and we used them liberally as teaching tools in trying to ensure that our staffs doing the testing and evaluations weren't subject to bias and/or overlooking key factors.  We didn't have any significant incidents during that time, fortunately. 

You had a nice job and I imagine Merck had to do a lot of changes after the fiasco and controversy over Vioxx.

 

[hazwoper]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cutter on cmc and gfs

Not "more amped" though.  The energy behind it is delayed which allows it to cut.  Later redevelopment and weaker.

[MJO812]

It redevlops but warm 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

It redevlops but warm 

Before the 14th so would be a bonus if worked out.

[SACRUS]

 

25 now to 42 more sun and dry weather the next 4 days. Upper 50s and some 60s by Sat before clouds. Colder by the 2/13 - 2/24.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Really impressive STJ event for SOCAL.

 

 

The final storm total at UCLA was 14.20". It was an unbelievable event.

[Brian5671]

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

 

Highs:

EWR: 60 (2020)
NYC: 56 (2020)
LGA: 58 (2020)


Lows:

EWR: 5 (1993)
NYC: 1 (1910)
LGA: 5 (1993)

 

Historical:

 

1812: The Hard Shock of the New Madrid Earthquake series strikes the area around the small town of New Madrid, Missouri. A three-mile-long island, Island #32, was completely sunk! The Mississippi River once again ran backward. This major shock marked the beginning of the end of New Madrid's extended ordeal, even though aftershocks would continue to be felt for years, and the fault is still active.

 

1835: A Great Freeze took place from February 2-9 across southern Georgia, southeastern South Carolina, and northern Florida. During this freeze, the St. Johns River was frozen, "several rods from the shore," and people were able to walk a distance from the shore. Many citruses and other fruit trees were killed to the ground, never to grow again, when temperatures reached as low as 1ºF in Charleston and 8ºF in Jacksonville. A Florida gentleman told a newspaper that the state "appeared as desolate as if a fire had swept over it" after the severe freeze of that winter season. According to Florida Citrus Mutual, this freeze was so severe that it is considered an impact freeze. This indicates that the freeze annihilates entire groves across the state, killing both mature and young citrus trees while causing a profound economic impact on the citrus industry and prompting growers to replant farther south. This freeze ended attempts to grow citrus in southern Georgia, southeastern South Carolina, and northern Florida.

 

1861 - The temperature at Gouverneur, NY, bottomed out at -40 degrees, a drop of 70 degrees in one day. Two days later the mercury hit 55 degrees. (David Ludlum)

1861 - Hanover, NH, plunged from 37 degrees at 1 PM on the 7th to 32 degrees below zero at 7 AM on the 8th, and West Cummington MA plummeted 80 degrees to -32 degrees. Boston MA plunged from 46 degrees to -14 degrees, and on the 11th was back up to 60 degrees. (7th-8th) (The Weather Channel)

 

1904: A small fire in the business district of Baltimore, Maryland becomes wind-whipped into an uncontrollable conflagration that engulfs a large portion of the city by evening.

 

1933: The USS Ramapo, a 478 ft. Navy oiler was traveling from Manila to San Diego when it encountered the tallest rogue wave ever recorded. The wave measured 112 feet in height was caused by 70 mph winds over a broad fetch of the ocean.

1934 - A deep freeze made it possible to drive from Bay Shore to Fire Island NY. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

1978 - The worst winter storm of record struck coastal New England. The storm produced 27.5 inches of snow at Boston, and nearly 50 inches in northeastern Rhode Island. The fourteen foot tide at Portland ME was probably the highest of the century. Winds gusted to 79 mph at Boston, and reached 92 mph at Chatham MA. A hurricane size surf caused 75 deaths and 500 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1987 - Low pressure in Manitoba, Canada, pulled warm air up from the Gulf of Mexico, and more than forty cities in the north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date, including North Platte NE and Rapid City SD with readings of 73 degrees. (The National Weather Summary)

1988 - Twenty-two cities in the eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Binghamton NY with a reading of 5 degrees below zero. Snow blanketed southern Louisiana, with three inches reported at Cameron. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Twenty-five cities in the western U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date. Lows of 16 at Las Vegas NV, 26 at Bakersfield CA, -29 degrees at Milford UT, and -16 degrees at Reno NV were February records. The low of 43 degrees below zero at Boca CA was a state record for the month of February. In Utah, lows of -32 degrees at Bryce Canyon, -27 degrees at Delta, -29 degrees at Dugway, and -38 degrees at Vernal were all-time records for those locations. (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - A slow moving cold front spread heavy snow across the state of Utah. Storm totals ranged up to 31 inches at Alta, with 24 inches at reported Brighton and 23 inches at Snowbird. Bitter cold weather prevailed across Alaska for the thirteenth day in a row, with morning lows of -42 degrees at Fairbanks, -48 degrees at Nenana, and -54 degrees at Bettles. Anchorage AK reported a record low of 23 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2017 - Six tornadoes traveled across southern Louisiana. The strongest tornado, an EF-3, impacted eastern New Orleans.

 

2017: Six tornadoes traveled across southern Louisiana. The strongest tornado, an EF-3, impacted eastern New Orleans.