bluewave Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I guess the only thing I would add beyond 5 days out is that we usually get our snowstorms after the -AO has peaked rather than at the very beginning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Surprised that the metro wasn’t higher with cloud cover 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: I guess the only thing I would add beyond 5 days out is that we usually get our snowstorms after the -AO has peaked rather than at the very beginning. The AO will have been quite negative for a while by then though. And it's almost impossible for every variable to work in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The AO will have been quite negative for a while by then though. And it's almost impossible for every variable to work in our favor. I realize that. I was just talking about the timeline. We usually get our snowstorms after the -AO begins rising after hitting a low for the period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Still think early next week is for NNE. As of now, I like the President Day Weekend threat. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Still think early next week is for NNE. As of now, I like the President Day Weekend threat. I'm not sure if it is. We have a favorable AO and PNA . NAO isn't bad either but the next threat seems more favorable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Daily 14th post. Safe to say it's not getting pushed back or can kicked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm not sure if it is. We have a favorable AO and PNA . NAO isn't bad either but the next threat seems more favorable. Going to be in the 60’s this weekend. Not ideal for costal snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Going to be in the 60’s this weekend. Not ideal for costal snow yeah the airmass is crap. we've seen how that works out in the past.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Greg g said: I have a flight coming back from Florida on the 13th.. hope can make it back TPA to Acy, landing at 11:30am. Spirit. Dunno what their policy is to change dates but.... hopefully I won't have to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 It will be interesting to see if we can link this coming SSW with the very amplified MJO 6 like we did back at this time in 2018. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/1/657/2020/#:~:text=In the beginning of February,stratospheric warming (SSW) event.Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018 In the beginning of February 2018 a rapid deceleration of the westerly circulation in the polar Northern Hemisphere stratosphere took place, and on 12 February the zonal-mean zonal wind at 60∘ N and 10 hPa reversed to easterly in a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. We investigate the role of the tropospheric forcing in the occurrence of the SSW, its predictability and teleconnection with the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) by analysing the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble forecast. The SSW was preceded by significant synoptic wave activity over the Pacific and Atlantic basins, which led to the upward propagation of wave packets and resulted in the amplification of a stratospheric wavenumber 2 planetary wave. The dynamical and statistical analyses indicate that the main tropospheric forcing resulted from an anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking, subsequent blocking and upward wave propagation in the Ural Mountains region, in agreement with some previous studies. The ensemble members which predicted the wind reversal also reasonably reproduced this chain of events, from the horizontal propagation of individual wave packets to upward wave-activity fluxes and the amplification of wavenumber 2. On the other hand, the ensemble members which failed to predict the wind reversal also failed to properly capture the blocking event in the key region of the Urals and the associated intensification of upward-propagating wave activity. Finally, a composite analysis suggests that teleconnections associated with the record-breaking MJO phase 6 observed in late January 2018 likely played a role in triggering this SSW event. How to cite. Statnaia, I. A., Karpechko, A. Y., and Järvinen, H. J.: Mechanisms and predictability of sudden stratospheric warming in winter 2018, Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 657–674, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-657-2020, 2020. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 49 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Still think early next week is for NNE. As of now, I like the President Day Weekend threat. I’m going to be in Stowe Friday - Tuesday, of course I timed it perfectly for a massive thermal spike . Consolation prize would be some kind of snow before we head home, should that work out for up there. It does look like the worst of the heat spike avoids as far north as Stowe is, thankfully. Supposed to be hiking / snowshoeing, and definitely hitting The Alchemist brewery (which works regardless of the weather, a nice bday present!). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Tropics Check 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I'm astounded by how much snow/precip falls in such a short period on the 6Z GFS, with 2/3 of the snow for NYC metro falling from 4 to 7 am on 2/13 (night time is great for this marginal run), which is 6" or more for most in that 3-hour period and most of the rest falls in the next 3 hours. If we end up with a storm like this, we're talking knife's edge for any forecast, given surface temps, verbatim, for folks along 95 never go below 34F (so ratios likely are low, although the whole column is below 32F except for very near the surface and at high rates ratios might not be as bad as shown by Kuchera). Anyway, I know discussing thermal details at this point is a bit silly - it's just wild to see what is possible with this event, IMO... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Eps is more amped. We can't win here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Older people seem to be much more sensitive to cold weather too. I've maintained friendships with people who loved the cold weather when they were in their 20s, 30s and 40s, but once they hit their 60s, they can't stand cold weather anymore (with or without snow.) Part of the reason is a lot of older people stay indoors a lot during the fall and winter so they never acclimate to colder weather. I still love cold weather. I am outdoors every day. Being outdoors every day makes it very easy to acclimate to colder weather . Staying indoors leads to a lot of inactivity which leads to a lot of health problems Aging has both mental and physical aspects. Having a positive mental approach and physical approach to aging is important. I know many people at the gym who are in their 70's- 90's. They workout every day. I've seen them at the gym on the coldest and most snowiest of days. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I'm astounded by how much snow/precip falls in such a short period on the 6Z GFS, with 2/3 of the snow for NYC metro falling from 4 to 7 am on 2/13 (night time is great for this marginal run), which is 6" or more for most in that 3-hour period and most of the rest falls in the next 3 hours. If we end up with a storm like this, we're talking knife's edge for any forecast, given surface temps, verbatim, for folks along 95 never go below 34F (so ratios likely are low, although the whole column is below 32F except for very near the surface and at high rates ratios might not be as bad as shown by Kuchera). Anyway, I know discussing thermal details at this point is a bit silly - it's just wild to see what is possible with this event, IMO... But as Walt mentioned its not good enough for a thread because this clown map you are displaying is misleading as to what actually would fall and stick ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: But as Walt mentioned its not good enough for a thread because this clown map you are displaying is misleading as to what actually would fall and stick ........ I don't really see anyone use the snow depth map for their forecasts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 hours ago, RU848789 said: And just to whet people's appetites for the long range tracking marathon... and when we will need a northern trend in the model runs it will not happen........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, MJO812 said: I don't really see anyone use the snow depth map for their forecasts. then why no thread ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps is more amped. We can't win here. Shit air mass. The storm on the 19 is the one to watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: and when we will need a northern trend in the model runs it will not happen........... That’s exactly where we want it currently… Our bigger snowstorms always come with a suppression risk. January 2016 didn’t have much snow north of the NYC 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: then why no thread ? I think it's too early 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 48 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Going to be in the 60’s this weekend. Not ideal for costal snow That's irrelevant with temps in the mid-30s Monday morning and highs in the mid-40s on Monday and then temps down into the upper 30s before any precip starts Monday night. Yes, ground will be above 32F, but not far above 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: That’s exactly where we want it currently… Our bigger snowstorms always come with a suppression risk. January 2016 didn’t have much snow north of the NYC I knew you were going to say that.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, RU848789 said: That's irrelevant with temps in the mid-30s Monday morning and highs in the mid-40s on Monday and then temps down into the upper 30s before any precip starts Monday night. Yes, ground will be above 32F, but not far above 32F. this concrete jungle in NYC holds the built up heat for a longer period of time....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Part of the reason is a lot of older people stay indoors a lot during the fall and winter so they never acclimate to colder weather. I still love cold weather. I am outdoors every day. Being outdoors every day makes it very easy to acclimate to colder weather . Staying indoors leads to a lot of inactivity which leads to a lot of health problems Aging has both mental and physical aspects. Having a positive mental approach and physical approach to aging is important. I know many people at the gym who are in their 70's- 90's. They workout every day. I've seen them at the gym on the coldest and most snowiest of days. Yeah, I'm 61 and still love the cold and snow and don't imagine that ever changing. I'm retired and am outside for several hours per day at least 5 days a week between disc golf, soccer, and doing little day trips with my wife. Obviously, someday I'll be less mobile, but until then I love getting outdoors. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, NEG NAO said: this concrete jungle in NYC holds the built up heat for a longer period of time....... Yes, but not for 24+ hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Yes, but not for 24+ hours the Central Park Snow Measurer Says: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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