NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Ukie is a huge hit too far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, NEG NAO said: too far out 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: 6 days Ukie is a big hit for the Valentine's storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Ukie is a big hit for the Valentine's storm? Yes Tuesday and Tuesday night 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: 6 days you posted the GFS model run for Feb 18 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: you posted the GFS model run for Feb 18 I did 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 11 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: I did The moderate storm in a mild pattern we had on VD in Feb 2018? lol why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: I drove from Long Beach where there was about 12”, east on Sunrise Highway then north on 231. Snow definitely increased around Wantagh then was highest around Deer Park/Babylon, then decreased again in Dix Hills to my house where there was about 14”. That band in SE Nassau and Suffolk was the difference maker. For hours Long Beach sucked on subsidence and light snow/blowing snow while that band crushed. Further east in Islip benefitted from being closer to the low. This area messes up on snowfall in so many ways. If it's not a changeover scenario the storm is too far east of us lol. We rarely do extremely well unless it's a block buster coastal storm coming up from the south that gets far enough north to get the changeover line within 50 miles of us but not far enough north to actually get it to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: Best thing about 1/29/22 was the temperatures! I was at 22f at the time of peak snowfall; pure powder. I spent hours outside in it getting up early, and I took my sweet time shoveling. No rush to be had. Plus super easy to shovel. Here, I didn't shovel at all, as the foot of snow was blown off my property by the wind (off my driveway at any rate.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: My house had about 14”. The dividing line between wild like you had and very good but not wild was around Dix Hills. There was definitely an accum decrease around there going north from Babylon on 231. Your area must have had over 20”. That sound enhanced area just crushed places from Wantagh to east of Islip for hours. So if Babylon on the south shore can get sound enhanced snow, how come we can't get sound enhanced snow back here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: I drove from Long Beach where there was about 12”, east on Sunrise Highway then north on 231. Snow definitely increased around Wantagh then was highest around Deer Park/Babylon, then decreased again in Dix Hills to my house where there was about 14”. That band in SE Nassau and Suffolk was the difference maker. For hours Long Beach sucked on subsidence and light snow/blowing snow while that band crushed. Further east in Islip benefitted from being closer to the low. It's interesting that Long Beach and your house in Huntington basically had the same amount of snow. So the snow bands were oriented southwest to northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Euro a hit too for next tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Euro is heavy rain to heavy snow for most. Still 6+ days out, but the Euro/UK/GFS/CMC all show at least moderate snowfall for NYC Metro with less to the S/SW and of course if this continues to look good we'll eventually be worrying about how much rain/mix before the snow and ratios and melting and everything else, but the take home message is we actually have a decent shot at some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 You really need a strong, dynamic system for the 13th as airmass is not very good but there is some potential. Northern stream needs to get more involved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 And just to whet people's appetites for the long range tracking marathon... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You really need a strong, dynamic system for the 13th as airmass is not very good but there is some potential. Northern elevated areas would be favored again for the 13th storm depending on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I have a flight coming back from Florida on the 13th.. hope can make it back 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 Will look at this closely for a thread, if NYC can show 2+ on the 06z GEFS... for now, think I'd ;like to wait til this evening. It is 6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 13 minutes ago, Greg g said: I have a flight coming back from Florida on the 13th.. hope can make it back This winter, I wouldnt cancel or lose sleep over any snow event this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 GEFS 10 to 1 has 2" NYC but Positive Snow Depth Change under 1". Think it best to wait til 630PM ish this evening, rather than chase something that is 1" or less this far out. Has some hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, wdrag said: GEFS 10 to 1 has 2" NYC but Positive Snow Depth Change under 1". Think it best to wait til 630PM ish this evening, rather than chase something that is 1" or less this far out. Has some hope. Gefs improved over past runs for NYC. Looking good but still ways out there . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Active pattern on gfs with a snowstorm near presidents day 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 CMCE and EPS Positive Snow Depth change under 1" NYC, but 10 to 1 EPS does have 2-3 as the GEFS. If the models were that good at 6-7 days nailing Ptype/Temp, wow. But they're not--just the idea that event is coming to the northeast USA. Think we can wait before stirring more certainty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 That's a strong low on the gfs. Nothing like the CMC and Euro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 Just now, wdrag said: CMCE and EPS Positive Snow Depth change under 1" NYC, but 10 to 1 EPS does have 2-3 as the GEFS. If the models were that good at 6-7 days nailing Ptype/Temp, wow. But they're not--just the idea that event is coming to the northeast USA. Think we can wait before stirring more certainty. Will revisit at 530PM and then, if good, all the ensemble guidance for this event will post plus BOM which is under 1.5" or less NYC and LI -07Z version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 -39.05 Soi 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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