Brian5671 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Good-too much -NAO is congrats DC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: less-nao And PNA 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Can we enjoy the favorable pattern ahead before worrying about a 300 hour run. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Nice, but still a week away... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: If you want the heaviest possible snowfall with the chance to see 200”+pick the Tug Hill or Marquette areas. You know we've had it rough when southeast NJ is beating CPK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, EastonSN+ said: You know we've had it rough when southeast NJ is beating CPK. 2011-22 had a few suppressed storms and the big Jan 2022 blizzard hammered the NJ coast. Tom’s River got 20” and Central Park 8.7”. Islip got 24”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 25 minutes ago, forkyfork said: less-nao Isn't that what we want? Less suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 31 minutes ago, jm1220 said: 2011-22 had a few suppressed storms and the big Jan 2022 blizzard hammered the NJ coast. Tom’s River got 20” and Central Park 8.7”. Islip got 24”. Even Brooklyn got 12" in that one. That was our last significant snowstorm wasn't it? It's been awhile... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Here is the thing about moving to a snowier location. Most people fail to plan for when they can no longer do the snow removal themselves. People age out of it. Then it becomes a matter of hiring someone to do the snow removal work. That can get very expensive, very quickly. Another thing is people get tired of always having to do the snow removal. My former neighbor has a place in Pittsburg NH. He has told me that some people move to Pittsburg for the winter activities but quickly grow tired of what can be daily snow removal. There is a big difference in admiring a snowy location from afar than actually living in a snowier location. Same goes for people who move south. I've known numerous people who moved to Florida because they enjoyed the Florida weather during vacations BUT they hated living in Florida because of the unrelenting heat and humidity. It’s definitely a move for a younger person that is in a more adventurous phase of their life. I can remember how difficult it was for the elderly back in my Long Beach days. Especially during winters like 93-94, 95-96, and 10-11. Many people couldn’t get out for days and had to have neighbors or friends bring food in or shovel their walkways. Most of the older people couldn’t wait to get to a warmer climate for the winter which was very understandable. There were few very hearty souls into their 70s that would be out in all the most extreme winter weather. I would see them down on the boardwalk or on the beach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s definitely a move for a younger person that is in a more adventurous phase of their life. I can remember how difficult it was for the elderly back in my Long Beach days. Especially during winters like 93-94, 95-96, and 10-11. Many people couldn’t get out for days and had to have neighbors or friends bring food in or shovel their walkways. Most of the older people couldn’t wait to get to a warmer climate for the winter which was very understandable. There were few very hearty souls into their 70s that would be out in all the most extreme winter weather. I would see them down on the boardwalk or in the beach. And in the emergency room..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s definitely a move for a younger person that is in a more adventurous phase of their life. I can remember how difficult it was for the elderly back in my Long Beach days. Especially during winters like 93-94, 95-96, and 10-11. Many people couldn’t get out for days and had to have neighbors or friends bring food in or shovel their walkways. Most of the older people couldn’t wait to get to a warmer climate for the winter which was very understandable. There were few very hearty souls into their 70s that would be out in all the most extreme winter weather. I would see them down on the boardwalk or on the beach. Older people seem to be much more sensitive to cold weather too. I've maintained friendships with people who loved the cold weather when they were in their 20s, 30s and 40s, but once they hit their 60s, they can't stand cold weather anymore (with or without snow.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Older people seem to be much more sensitive to cold weather too. I've maintained friendships with people who loved the cold weather when they were in their 20s, 30s and 40s, but once they hit their 60s, they can't stand cold weather anymore (with or without snow.) i'm 61 and yes this is true. I worry much more about the ice, I am much less steady on my feet, and it hurts a lot more when I fall, and it takes a lot longer to recover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: i'm 61 and yes this is true. I worry much more about the ice, I am much less steady on my feet, and it hurts a lot more when I fall, and it takes a lot longer to recover. My sister is 63 now and I worry about her because she insists on living alone. And insists on doing everything herself. The last time she was at my house, I could see she was getting dizzy and a little off balance and I asked her to rest for a bit-- and she hates that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Even Brooklyn got 12" in that one. That was our last significant snowstorm wasn't it? It's been awhile... I had 5” last 2/28 which was white rain in parts of the city and south shore. Was a very nice scene but was gone in 24 hours mostly. Besides that pretty much nada since that Jan 2022 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: 2011-22 had a few suppressed storms and the big Jan 2022 blizzard hammered the NJ coast. Tom’s River got 20” and Central Park 8.7”. Islip got 24”. Here in babylon Jan 2022 was wild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: Here in babylon Jan 2022 was wild. My house had about 14”. The dividing line between wild like you had and very good but not wild was around Dix Hills. There was definitely an accum decrease around there going north from Babylon on 231. Your area must have had over 20”. That sound enhanced area just crushed places from Wantagh to east of Islip for hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, jm1220 said: My house had about 14”. The dividing line between wild like you had and very good but not wild was around Dix Hills. There was definitely an accum decrease around there going north from Babylon. Your area must have had over 20”. That sound enhanced area just crushed places from Wantagh to east of Islip for hours. I forgot how much of a gradient that storm had. I had about two feet and Nassau had like a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Best thing about 1/29/22 was the temperatures! I was at 22f at the time of peak snowfall; pure powder. I spent hours outside in it getting up early, and I took my sweet time shoveling. No rush to be had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 A warming trend will get underway tomorrow The temperature could rise well into the 50s in New York City and into the 60s in Philadelphia and Washington, DC late in the week and early in the weekend. The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. As a result, the first 10 days of February could wind up 5°-7° above normal in New York City. Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, were the February 1-10 temperature to average 40.0° or above, that development could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season. The second week of February will likely see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal, even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather. Single-digit cold is unlikely in New York City. During February, cases with warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies see such lows at 55% of frequency as cold ENSO Region 1+2 cases during El Niño winters. During the second half of February, just 17% of cases with a PDO- saw single-digit cold during El Niño winters. January saw a strongly negative PDO. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around January 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.83°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -41.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.040 today. On February 4 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.092 (RMM). The February 3-adjusted amplitude was 1.954 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 hours ago, RU848789 said: Nice, but still a week away... the 18Z GFS clown map always a reliable source........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I forgot how much of a gradient that storm had. I had about two feet and Nassau had like a foot I drove from Long Beach where there was about 12”, east on Sunrise Highway then north on 231. Snow definitely increased around Wantagh then was highest around Deer Park/Babylon, then decreased again in Dix Hills to my house where there was about 14”. That band in SE Nassau and Suffolk was the difference maker. For hours Long Beach sucked on subsidence and light snow/blowing snow while that band crushed. Further east in Islip benefitted from being closer to the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 25 now. Keep em DEAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Byrdhousebv Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 hours ago, weatherpruf said: i'm 61 and yes this is true. I worry much more about the ice, I am much less steady on my feet, and it hurts a lot more when I fall, and it takes a lot longer to recover. Welp, I guess I'm an outlier. Turned 74 in January and still relish a good cold snow storm. I still enjoy stacking the firewood in the fall, putting away the summer patio furniture, tuning up the snow blower, and bringing in the shovels from the shed. (And staying optimistic for a winter storm or two) Am posting this from a cruise ship returning from the southern Caribbean and although the warm sunny weather was fun the storm system northeast of the Bahamas we're passing through now is just as enjoyable. Looking forward to lighting the fireplace Friday night and tracking that potential sysrem next week. No way We would move to a more warmer, dull climate. Oh well.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Gfs and cmc 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Need the storm to slow down so the ns can get out ahead an pull down cold air. I still think this is to early in the pattern change. Long way to go, atleast something to keep an eye on 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs and cmc Upton and Mt. Holly say Rain and 40's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 9 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Sorry for off-topic, but it warrants a response. There are plenty of places in the midwest that have seen snowfall drop precipitously over the past decade. Cleveland Columbus Toledo Saint Louis And there are plenty of places in michigan, minnesota, and wisconsin where snowfall totals are not dropping whatsoever. Coming back to Earth after the record snowfall stretch of 2008-2015? Absolutely. Falling overall? Absolutely not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Gfs cooking up a bomb PDIII 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 13 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Ukie is a huge hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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