brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: A good amount of huge hits today on the idv southern stream holds back a bit, there are more true coastal solutions than 00z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The main thing I have been seeing from the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest is a shorter ice fishing season as places like International Falls have warmed about 6° during the winter since around 1950. The warmer winters have resulted in increasing lake effect snows in spots with the warmer lakes and less ice. But even the warmest winters by International Falls standards like this year would be much colder than any winter around NYC. How does International Falls compare to Caribou? I suspect with a storm track moving farther north, both would do well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: A good amount of huge hits today on the idv I thought that was too early for the pattern progression? Maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, LibertyBell said: I thought that was too early for the pattern progression? Maybe not that's the first crack at it. definitely more thread the needle, but doable, as we're seeing 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: A good amount of huge hits today on the idv There are individuals with northern stream interaction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: Sometimes it takes a little time to score in a pattern like this. It’s looks to stick around for more than a week and with an active STJ we should have chances. That's what happened in December 2010. The first storm missed and it took another week for the big hit. Different winter different pattern, of course. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: I think it’s probably suppressive until the last week of the month like Tomer Burg said. He gave very solid reasoning. It most likely happens as the -NAO block erodes and fizzles out Have you changed your mind on the pattern becoming warmer as soon as March starts? You shared a tweet (from Burg I think), where it seemed like you were open to the cold extending into the first part of March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Have you changed your mind on the pattern becoming warmer as soon as March starts? You shared a tweet (from Burg I think), where it seemed like you were open to the cold extending into the first part of March. No. I don’t see a cold pattern lasting beyond early March 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 this has to be one of the few days this winter that is: -Normal -Sunny -Beautiful I can’t remember the last time it was just a normal sunny 30 something degree day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: this has to be one of the few days this winter that is: -Normal -Sunny -Beautiful I can’t remember the last time it was just a normal sunny 30 something degree day Yep, we missed these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No. I don’t see a cold pattern lasting beyond early March Of course not 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 EPS snow mean over 5 for nyc this run… Snowiest run in several weeks 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: EPS snow mean over 5 for nyc this run… Snowiest run in several weeks Snowiest run in 2 years 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: this has to be one of the few days this winter that is: -Normal -Sunny -Beautiful I can’t remember the last time it was just a normal sunny 30 something degree day I managed to get a little sunburn (raccoon eyes from sunglasses) on my walk around the Manasquan Reservoir this afternoon. Windows are open to get some fresh air at the house, and I don't even need to use the heater to warm up the truck. Sun is doing it's job 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 after our initial major blocking spell, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if we ran it back. the ECMWF has moved strongly towards another SSW that would quickly couple looking at NAM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAVistaNY Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Yeah it could be in reference to ice fishing. Snow seasons still literally span Oct-May in the north annually, its just a matter of having thick ice and good snowmobiling conditions during much of winter that is essential for winter tourism in the far north. But even down here most winters have ice fishing on at least smaller lakes at times, so Im sure more of their ice issues are on the Great Lakes rather than smaller lakes. It doesnt matter how much you have warmed, 32F is still freezing. I have a feeling snowmobiling is a bigger part of their problem. We weenies look at thaws as "hopefully Ill still have snow in my yard when it freezes back up" but if a thaw sneaks that far north, even if there will still be plenty snow on the ground when its over, snowmobile trails can essentially be ruined. I have a lake house in western Maine- I haven’t seen a car on the ice in about 5 years, 2 weekends ago a UTV went thru the ice (yes it was knuckle heads on a 6 person machine). My house is on groomed snowmobile trails and the conditions have been horrible even if there is snow- the boggy areas haven’t been freezing up! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, LAVistaNY said: I have a lake house in western Maine- I haven’t seen a car on the ice in about 5 years, 2 weekends ago a UTV went thru the ice (yes it was knuckle heads on a 6 person machine). My house is on groomed snowmobile trails and the conditions have been horrible even if there is snow- the boggy areas haven’t been freezing up! You're not close to Caribou are you? I've been hearing reports that snowfall has gone up there in the last few years? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Weeklies are weenish 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weeklies are weenish Heard they were run out of JB's basement today... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 59 minutes ago, TJW014 said: I managed to get a little sunburn (raccoon eyes from sunglasses) on my walk around the Manasquan Reservoir this afternoon. Windows are open to get some fresh air at the house, and I don't even need to use the heater to warm up the truck. Sun is doing it's job Def feel the spring sun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Def feel the spring sun!Sun Angle Party! . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: No. I don’t see a cold pattern lasting beyond early March Color me shocked 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAVistaNY Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: You're not close to Caribou are you? I've been hearing reports that snowfall has gone up there in the last few years? Not that far north- east of North Conway, NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Color me shocked First it was kick the can, then it was suppression & next will be the sun angle. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, uofmiami said: First it was kick the can, then it was suppression & next will be the sun angle. If only weather forecasting was as 100% predictable as his posts 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 28 minutes ago, uofmiami said: First it was kick the can, then it was suppression & next will be the sun angle. we've been kicking the can since Thanksgiving-first it was a great pattern starting xmas week, then it was Jan 1st, then into mid Jan, which a brief window of cold occurred followed by what will be a 3-4 week "thaw" basically a 10 day winter so far.....hopefully it comes but hard not to be somewhat skeptical given the last 2 years of garbage and fantasy long range model runs 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 less-nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Gfs is more amped 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: How does International Falls compare to Caribou? I suspect with a storm track moving farther north, both would do well? If you want the heaviest possible snowfall with the chance to see 200”+pick the Tug Hill or Marquette areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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