binbisso Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 If next week's system comes on Monday it's rain. If it is delayed to late Tuesday we have a better chance as colder air begins to filter in. Ensembles differ on timing right now. We watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree but maybe we can get lucky you don't need luck...you need 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Really nice set up for Presidents’ Day weekend on the gfs fwiw I agree. If anything happens it’s going to be after 2/15. The setup for 2/13-2/14 sucks. Our risk after 2/15 will be suppression, not lakes cutter or inland runner anymore IMO. Just hope the -NAO block isn’t too strong 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: With more juice NYC might get 50 In one storm I prefer to look on the bright side....prevents people from buying them.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, snowman19 said: I agree. If anything happens it’s going to be after 2/15. The setup for 2/13-2/14 sucks. Our risk after 2/15 will be suppression, not lakes cutter or inland runner anymore IMO. Just hope the -NAO block isn’t too strong Sometimes it takes a little time to score in a pattern like this. It’s looks to stick around for more than a week and with an active STJ we should have chances. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I prefer to look on the bright side....prevents people from buying them.. It definitely helps living in a place that gets around 110” of snow a year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Sometimes it takes a little time to score in a pattern like this. It’s looks to stick around for more than a week and with an active STJ we should have chances. What an awesome pattern after next week on the models . Hopefully we captalize. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It definitely helps living in a place that gets around 110” of snow a year. it certainly does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, MJO812 said: What an awesome pattern after next week on the models . Hopefully we captalize. Yup. End of the gfs looks incredible. Just need to get through the next week and half 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, Allsnow said: Yup. End of the gfs looks incredible. Just need to get through the next week and half Gefs still gives us hope next week . It's a long shot though . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Gefs still gives us hope next week . It's a long shot though . Don’t do it to yourself… 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: it certainly does. Plenty of people on this forum would probably move up to Nova Scotia if they were able to for much snowier winters and more comfortable summers. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Sometimes it takes a little time to score in a pattern like this. It’s looks to stick around for more than a week and with an active STJ we should have chances. I think it’s probably suppressive until the last week of the month like Tomer Burg said. He gave very solid reasoning. It most likely happens as the -NAO block erodes and fizzles out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Plenty of people on this forum would probably move up to Nova Scotia if they were able to for much snowier winters and more comfortable summers. Here is the thing about moving to a snowier location. Most people fail to plan for when they can no longer do the snow removal themselves. People age out of it. Then it becomes a matter of hiring someone to do the snow removal work. That can get very expensive, very quickly. Another thing is people get tired of always having to do the snow removal. My former neighbor has a place in Pittsburg NH. He has told me that some people move to Pittsburg for the winter activities but quickly grow tired of what can be daily snow removal. There is a big difference in admiring a snowy location from afar than actually living in a snowier location. Same goes for people who move south. I've known numerous people who moved to Florida because they enjoyed the Florida weather during vacations BUT they hated living in Florida because of the unrelenting heat and humidity. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs still gives us hope next week . It's a long shot though . I read your post and Daniel Jones popped into what is left of my mind.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Geps snow mean up for Presidents’ Day weekend. Beautiful h5 look with the STJ undercutting the +pna 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 35 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Don’t do it to yourself… I am hopeful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 i hope this isn't the start of a rug pull 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The main thing I have been seeing from the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest is a shorter ice fishing season as places like International Falls have warmed about 6° during the winter since around 1950. The warmer winters have resulted in increasing lake effect snows in spots with the warmer lakes and less ice. But even the warmest winters by International Falls standards like this year would be much colder than any winter around NYC. Yeah it could be in reference to ice fishing. Snow seasons still literally span Oct-May in the north annually, its just a matter of having thick ice and good snowmobiling conditions during much of winter that is essential for winter tourism in the far north. But even down here most winters have ice fishing on at least smaller lakes at times, so Im sure more of their ice issues are on the Great Lakes rather than smaller lakes. It doesnt matter how much you have warmed, 32F is still freezing. I have a feeling snowmobiling is a bigger part of their problem. We weenies look at thaws as "hopefully Ill still have snow in my yard when it freezes back up" but if a thaw sneaks that far north, even if there will still be plenty snow on the ground when its over, snowmobile trails can essentially be ruined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I don't think it is a jerk reaction at all. I have seen the same here in SNE and So NH. Many landscapers have gotten out of the snow plowing business. A guy who lives not too far from me just put hi large pickup truck with a plow up for sale. Many businesses have been negatively impacted by a string of terrible winters. Id imagine anyone who does that knows they are at mercy of the weather any given season. Plus there are differences. In the Great Lakes we get more snowfalls but less huge storms than the east coast. Snowfall the last 10 winters at DTW (avg 45") has been- 94.9", 47.5", 35.3", 37.9", 61.0", 31.3", 43.7", 44.9", 47.1", 37.1". Simply plowing or salting is more or less steady. Milder winters hurt the ice fishing and snowcover crowds, but we still get multiple snowfalls that need plowing and even more that need salting. During that 2-week stretch this January, some guys were working 20 hour days between the plowing, salting, and redoing from drifting snow. Then the east coast is an entirely different beast. Snow plowing/salting is more feast/famine. Two record low snow years in a row are happening for you guys, but what happens when a massive noreaster hits and drops feet of snow? There has to be someone to plow all the parking lots. Its like the old joke "blame me for no snow because i bought a snowblower". Joe blow sells his plow then next winter youll get 3 monster storms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Miss Yep. Barely gets precip into SE Virginia. Streams stay completely separate 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Id imagine anyone who does that knows they are at mercy of the weather any given season. Plus there are differences. In the Great Lakes we get more snowfalls but less huge storms than the east coast. Snowfall the last 10 winters at DTW (avg 45") has been- 94.9", 47.5", 35.3", 37.9", 61.0", 31.3", 43.7", 44.9", 47.1", 37.1". Simply plowing or salting is more or less steady. Milder winters hurt the ice fishing and snowcover crowds, but we still get multiple snowfalls that need plowing and even more that need salting. During that 2-week stretch this January, some guys were working 20 hour days between the plowing, salting, and redoing from drifting snow. Then the east coast is an entirely different beast. Snow plowing/salting is more feast/famine. Two record low snow years in a row are happening for you guys, but what happens when a massive noreaster hits and drops feet of snow? There has to be someone to plow all the parking lots. Its like the old joke "blame me for no snow because i bought a snowblower". Joe blow sells his plow then next winter youll get 3 monster storms. Well that is going to be a problem..MASSDOT begins advertising for snowplow drivers in September on electronic signs along the highway. Owning a large truck with a plow is very costly. Insurance has become expensive,as have repairs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Aren't we back to -AMO now Chuck? Interestingly and apart from this, we saw far fewer east coast TC in this cycle of the +AMO than we did in the last one back in the 1950s. If you look at the TC tracks, in the 50s they were mostly east coast storms and this time around it's been the gulf that's been much more active-- I wonder why. +AMO appears to still be peaking. On the monthly dataset, it maxed out in September 2022 at +0.643 (#2 was 0.5), then all last Spring and Summer last year there were record warm SSTs in the central-Atlantic Ocean. My guess is it would still rise for a few years to come. I think since the late '90s, TC's have hit the EC at like 60%, while the average # of storms has increased by 180%.. interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I've seen a lot of interviews done with businesses that rely on cold weather and snow in the Midwest (particularly in Minnesota and Wisconsin) talking about how their businesses have dried up the last couple of years and they don't see it as a sustainable business anymore. Sorry for off-topic, but it warrants a response. There are plenty of places in the midwest that have seen snowfall drop precipitously over the past decade. Cleveland Columbus Toledo Saint Louis 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yep. Barely gets precip into SE Virginia. Streams stay completely separate Right on cue spiking the ball when seeing this map. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Snow mean on the eps over 2 for next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Right on cue spiking the ball when seeing this map. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Snow mean on the eps over 2 for next Tuesday A good amount of huge hits today on the idv 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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