JustinRP37 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Wow this place is depressing. We just got through a “torch” week without hitting the 60s that so many were touting. Now it looks like the next “torch” period at the beginning of February won’t be that much of a torch at all. Some average days and some just above average days. I think ya’ll need to get out and enjoy what we do have. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 36 minutes ago, psv88 said: January 27 and 5” of snow for the season. Based on this board I should have had 4 feet of snow by now. People need to realize a good pattern on paper doesn’t mean it will snow. Once people get that concept the overhyping will stop. It’s the overhyping that kills weather boards these days more than anything. Setting themselves up for more disappointment 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Setting themselves up for more disappointment What disappointment? I'm not saying the good pattern is going to happen but every model and the ensembles have it starting soon with many meteorologists on board. There is also a signal for a big storm on all the models that we should start tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 I follow Larry cosgrove on social media. He is bullish on a cold east for Feb 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I follow Larry cosgrove on social media. He is bullish on a cold east for Feb Just like last year 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I follow Larry cosgrove on social media. He is bullish on a cold east for Feb its difficult to determine who too believe anymore - the next few weeks will determine who busted and who didn't in their winter forecasts - but the METS who were predicting above normal snowfall - need a big storm (HECS) too avoid busting....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: its difficult to determine who too believe anymore - the next few weeks will determine who busted and who didn't in their winter forecasts - but the METS who were predicting above normal snowfall - need a big storm too avoid busting....... I have no doubt it'll get cold again and we'll probably have a few opportunities but I'm not biting on anything until inside 72 hours. And nobody can predict if a great pattern will produce so snowfall forecasts are just hype 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 7 hours ago, JustinRP37 said: Wow this place is depressing. We just got through a “torch” week without hitting the 60s that so many were touting. Now it looks like the next “torch” period at the beginning of February won’t be that much of a torch at all. Some average days and some just above average days. I think ya’ll need to get out and enjoy what we do have. Trust me when I say this, if it was in the 60s and sunny A LOT of people would be happy Honestly 60s and sunny is so much better than 40s and rainy. And another thing-- there is zero correlation between a busted 60s forecast that verifies in the 40s leading to a snowy February vs if it had actually been in the 60s this week. I actually think if it had been in the 60s, the chances of a snowy February would have been a bit higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 8 hours ago, psv88 said: January 27 and 5” of snow for the season. Based on this board I should have had 4 feet of snow by now. People need to realize a good pattern on paper doesn’t mean it will snow. Once people get that concept the overhyping will stop. It’s the overhyping that kills weather boards these days more than anything. the funny thing is, when you're in the middle of a snowy period (like, say the early 00s, or the early 10s), the snowy patterns worked out most of the time, but when you're in a period when it hasn't snowed much in a few years, it doesn't work out. Honestly 60s and sunny is so much better than 40s and rainy. And another thing-- there is zero correlation between a busted 60s forecast that verifies in the 40s leading to a snowy February vs if it had actually been in the 60s this week. I actually think if it had been in the 60s, the chances of a snowy February would have been a bit higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 This will likely verify from 300 hours out, as they do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: This will likely verify from 300 hours out, as they do Why do you only post about rain and warmth ? Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Why do you only post about rain and warmth ? Weird. Troll, don't feed 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 9 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said: I follow Larry cosgrove on social media. He is bullish on a cold east for Feb As well as DT , JB. Steve D and many others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: As well as DT , JB. Steve D and many others. how accurate have their winter forecasts they released a couple of months ago been so far ? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: how accurate have their winter forecasts they released a couple of months ago been so far ? Not great so far but the next month is make or break 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 36 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: how accurate have their winter forecasts they released a couple of months ago been so far ? You can say that about many . Check out videos on YouTube. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 15 hours ago, LibertyBell said: it's an elevation year, you want a sure bet for snow you need to be in the mountains. I've always wondered why people who love snow live on the coast lol, it stands to reason the coast is always the least likely place to get consistent snowfall. Delaware is beating most of us this year. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: As well as DT , JB. Steve D and many others. I will say that having JB on your side is never a good thing. Broken clock... All cold all the time anti science shill. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Firing up in phase 1 again as expected (Nittany - understood it's not the only driver). AO going slightly negative, NAO neutral (same with PNA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Just now, EastonSN+ said: Firing up in phase 1 again as expected (Nittany - understood it's not the only driver). AO going slightly negative, NAO neutral (same with PNA). Looks likes we will go weakly into 8 if at all… Def not loving these trends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks likes we will go weakly into 8 if at all… Def not loving these trends Just take a neutral state...its sure better than 3-4-5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Looks likes we will go weakly into 8 if at all… Def not loving these trends Same exact thing happened with the last wave with 8. As long as we go through 1,2 and 3 we will have our shot, ans perhaps we will do a little better than the last stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Looks likes we will go weakly into 8 if at all… Def not loving these trends 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Just take a neutral state...its sure better than 3-4-5 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Same exact thing happened with the last wave with 8. As long as we go through 1,2 and 3 we will have our shot, ans perhaps we will do a little better than the last stretch. Take a look at the plot and connect to START. Like train tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Main forcing is also in p7 still so I think that is kicking the better look down the line a bit. Just sucks honestly…clock is ticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Main forcing is also in p7 still so I think that is kicking the better look down the line a bit. Just sucks honestly…clock is ticking Not accurate. Subsidence emerging in p7 for the next week or so. Strong -VP anoms/forcing in E Pac. If this busts warm, cant blame p7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 Please, for the love of God, look at hovmollers to diagnose forcing. Happy Sunday. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 5 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Please, for the love of God, look at hovmollers to diagnose forcing. Happy Sunday. looks good to me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 28 Share Posted January 28 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Delaware is beating most of us this year. But that's insignificant fluky snow that never sticks around long. It's why for sustained snow you want to be in the mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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