MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 When was the last time we saw a clipper ? Gfs has it and produces light snow for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs similiar Maybe this will be a clipper pattern developing with very cold air in place can easily deliver 2-4 inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, NEG NAO said: Maybe this will be a clipper pattern developing with very cold air in place can easily deliver 2-4 inches That would be awesome to see. Haven't seen one in ages . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: That would be awesome to see. Haven't seen one in ages . The Alberta Clipper, Manitoba Mauler and the Saskatchewan Screamer are all sweeping weather systems that can bring accumulating snow and gusty winds to the Northeast, Great Lakes and Midwest.Oct 18, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The 13th system has legitimacy but it's marginal and could be suppressed. Too early to tell. Almost looks like an early spring type bowling ball that blows up quickly. Fast mover that may drop a foot on someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 20 hours ago, bluewave said: NYC is currently in 1st place for the fewest lows of freezing or below by February 4th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Oct 1 to Feb 4 Missing Count 1 2024-02-04 23 0 - 2016-02-04 23 0 - 2002-02-04 23 0 - 2 2012-02-04 24 0 3 2023-02-04 25 0 4 2017-02-04 26 0 - 1932-02-04 26 0 5 2007-02-04 28 0 6 1999-02-04 29 0 7 1998-02-04 32 0 8 2013-02-04 33 0 - 1983-02-04 33 0 9 1949-02-04 34 0 - 1933-02-04 34 0 10 2020-02-04 35 0 - 2006-02-04 35 0 - 1995-02-04 35 0 - 1991-02-04 35 0 - 1973-02-04 35 0 Does 2001-02 hold the record for the entire winter? It's going to be difficult to beat that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 hours ago, NEG NAO said: Maybe this will be a clipper pattern developing with very cold air in place can easily deliver 2-4 inches It would be interesting to see as clippers usually dry up over the mountains and we get less than an inch from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: That would be awesome to see. Haven't seen one in ages . We have seen clippers, it's just that they are weak and move quickly and are moisture starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 hours ago, MJO812 said: According to this forum I should take my shorts and tank top out. Please NEVER do this.... not even in the summer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 hours ago, bluewave said: More La Ninas and MJO 4-7s is how a warming climate has manifested as the WPAC continues to warm faster than the EPAC. In climate change why wouldn't they both warm up equally, why is one part of the Pacific warming faster than the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I don't think La Nina's are a product of global warming. In the '80s and '90s there was a lot of stuff about how the SE, US would be the only place not really effected too much because +PDO/El Nino was correlated at the time to be a global warming variable. Aren't we back to -AMO now Chuck? Interestingly and apart from this, we saw far fewer east coast TC in this cycle of the +AMO than we did in the last one back in the 1950s. If you look at the TC tracks, in the 50s they were mostly east coast storms and this time around it's been the gulf that's been much more active-- I wonder why. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 hours ago, bluewave said: The older more primitive climate models incorrectly forecasted the EPAC to warm faster than the WPAC. But the WPAC has been warming faster with stronger and more frequent La Ninas and MJO 4-7 as the WPAC warm pool rapidly expands. So we get these occasional very strong El Niño’s which release record amounts of stored up heat into the atmosphere from the oceans. As the oceans continue to stratify, less heat will be able to get taken up buy the oceans and El Niños will cause greater global temperature jumps. This is one reason the global temperature spike from this El Niño was greater than 97-98 and 15-16 even though it was a weaker event. Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñashttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6#:~:text=The results from large ensemble,relative to the central Pacific. Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4 Why do multiyear la ninas happen so much more frequently than multiyear el ninos? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 hours ago, jm1220 said: Other than occasional stretches where this “winter” acts like an El Niño, we still have long Nina stretches like in Jan with the big Plains/Mountain West cold snap and now which should be our best stretch in a Nino but we’re dealing with 2 more weeks of Pacific garbage. When we have an actual Nina or neutral ENSO the WPAC warming amplifies the Nina pattern like crazy and mutes even a strong Nino. This winter has been much like another Nina with a stronger Nino STJ. The N PAC is another disaster for us because we’re stuck in a long term -PDO. Until these factors change we’re likely destined for more winters like this. The cold air is definitely still around-records are challenged all the time in the Plains/West in these big cold snaps but it just never gets favored to come east in a lasting way or without being massively modified. Our bonanza snow period from 2000-18 had a lot of help from the Pacific and now that it’s turned, the pendulum is swinging away. If it’s completely hostile to big Eastern winters there’s little that can counter it. We see how even big -NAO blocks can just recycle around more crap Pacific air masses. Bottom line-- the Pacific Ocean is simply too large for this planet to tolerate any huge changes to it and it controls the climate of the entire planet, so if something goes awry with it, it will alter the climate patterns of the entire planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A life-threatening atmospheric river continues to bring heavy rain and high wind to parts of southern California. Flash flooding, mudslides, and rock slides have been reported. Through 2 pm PST, Downtown Los Angeles has picked up 6.66" of rain. That is a new 2-day February record and the third highest 2-day figure on record. Records go back to 1877. Mild conditions prevailed under abundant sunshine in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, the seeds of change are beginning to sprout. The Arctic Oscillation has gone negative (-0.369). That is one of the pieces that will fall into place leading to a large-scale pattern change near mid-month. Tomorrow will be fair and seasonably cool. Much warmer air will then push into the region afterward. The temperature could rise into the 50s in New York City and 60s south of Philadelphia late in the week. The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. As a result, the first 10 days of February could wind up 5°-7° above normal in New York City. Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, were the February 1-10 temperature to average 40.0° or above, that development could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season. The second week of February will likely see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal, even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather. Single-digit cold is unlikely in New York City. During February, cases with warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies see such lows at 55% of frequency as cold ENSO Region 1+2 cases during El Niño winters. During the second half of February, just 17% of cases with a PDO- saw single-digit cold during El Niño winters. January saw a strongly negative PDO. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around January 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.83°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -36.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.369 today. On February 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.954 (RMM). The February 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.964 (RMM). It's interesting Don, we never heard the term "atmospheric river" back in the 80s, 90s, 00s, or even the 10s.... it only started being commonly used now. In previous decades we used to just call them Pacific coastal lows.... why is this term being used more frequently now and why don't we use this term for Atlantic coastal lows too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: It's been beyond bizarre. A 2 week blitz of hardcore winter in January, then almost nothing else but a few brief shots. A friend of mine who does plowing & salting (Detroit area) has had 30 billables so far this season (no idea what exactly that means lol), with 25 of the 30 coming in that 2 week stretch in January. I've seen a lot of interviews done with businesses that rely on cold weather and snow in the Midwest (particularly in Minnesota and Wisconsin) talking about how their businesses have dried up the last couple of years and they don't see it as a sustainable business anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: I think CPK getting to 50 inches is tough to do historically so perhaps not a great benchmark. From 1970 through 1999 CPK reached 50 inches 3 times, ironically 2 in the warmest period of the three (1990 through 1999). In fact in that 30 year period, only 3 years total went above 30 inches. By contrast, CPK went above 30 inches 13 times since 2000! In summation, it will be hard to determine who is right for the foreseeable future, since we are likely within another low snowfall period. We shall see. 50 inches is my benchmark for a great A/A+ type winter, historically they should only happen about 10% of the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13 hours ago, Allsnow said: A small sample size considering areas close to NYC have had over 50 inches of snow in one season over the last 4 winters. It makes sense though because those locations are much further inland, this isn't randomness at play it's how the climate works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13 hours ago, forkyfork said: he said it's been too warm to get a 50" season which the graphs prove Forky, we agree on everything about climate change, but you can actually get 50" even in a warmer winter. 2015-16 is a case in point. JFK had 40" with an average 40 degree plus temperature for the winter. There were parts of Long Island that actually received 50" that winter. It just needs a high end historic storm like we had that winter.... so say we have another 30" snowstorm, now you only need 20" for the rest of the winter to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12 hours ago, bluewave said: A winter average temperature of 34.1° has been the warmest that NYC was ever able to record 50” of snow. But there have been many more years of that average temperature or colder that didn’t produce a 50” total. So getting to 34.1° or colder is necessary but not sufficient to hit 50” of snow on the season. Even though NYC has averaged 38.5° over the past 9 winters which is a first, I think getting a winter of 34.1° or colder is still possible. But the odds of an outlier year or two this cold in NYC coinciding with a 50” snowfall season is small as winters continue to warm. Notice I didn’t say it was impossible. I just offered the idea that the odds would probably increase if there was enough of a volcanic eruption to temporarily shave a few degrees off our winter average temperatures. 50” snowfall seasons in NYC and average DJF temperatures Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Average Temperature DJF 1 1995-1996 75.6 32.2° 2 1947-1948 63.9 30.0° 3 2010-2011 61.9 32.8° 4 1922-1923 60.4 29.9° 5 1872-1873 60.2 27.7° 6 2013-2014 57.4 32.9° 7 1874-1875 56.4 27.7° 8 1898-1899 55.9 31.5° 9 1960-1961 54.7 31.7° 10 1993-1994 53.4 31.1° 11 1906-1907 53.2 31.6° 12 1933-1934 52.0 29.1° 13 1966-1967 51.5 34.1° 14 2009-2010 51.4 33.8° 15 1977-1978 50.7 30.3° - 1916-1917 50.7 31.7° - 1915-1916 50.7 32.4° 16 2014-2015 50.3 31.4° Record warm 9 year winter average temperatures in NYC Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 41.0 35.7 38.9 38.5 2023-2024 44.6 37.0 40.8 2022-2023 38.5 43.5 41.1 41.0 2021-2022 43.8 30.3 37.3 37.1 2020-2021 39.2 34.8 34.2 36.1 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.1 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 Chris, we have to make allowances for 2015-16. Central Park is just one point on the map, but if we expand the area to include all the airports and all coastal areas (which have a similar climate), then you can actually have a milder winter with 50" of snow. 2015-16 is a case in point. JFK had 40" with an average 40 degree plus temperature for the winter. There were parts of Long Island that actually received 50" that winter. It just needs a high end historic storm like we had that winter.... so say we have another 30" snowstorm, now you only need 20" for the rest of the winter to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It's interesting Don, we never heard the term "atmospheric river" back in the 80s, 90s, 00s, or even the 10s.... it only started being commonly used now. In previous decades we used to just call them Pacific coastal lows.... why is this term being used more frequently now and why don't we use this term for Atlantic coastal lows too? the phrase global warming suddenly becoming climate change is interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: That would be awesome to see. Haven't seen one in ages . Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: the phrase global warming suddenly becoming climate change is interesting I really wish we would have a reset on these terms, you don't see all these switch backs in the other sciences. 1) There are no such things as "superstorms" There literally is no such thing. This is another matter, but Sandy should have been classified as a hurricane right up until landfall. If it has 75 mph winds, it's a hurricane, period. Maybe make a distinction between tropical hurricanes and extratropical hurricanes for structural differences? The reclassification caused so much confusion and bad decisions to be made. I know this will not happen anymore and with the current system Sandy would have been a hurricane right up until landfall. Most of the damage occurred when Sandy was still a hurricane and some insurance providers refused to cover damage because it was not considered as such with the prior system in place. 2) It is not physically possible to have a river in the air, it's a stream of water vapor, of moisture, not a river. The term atmospheric river seems to be a term used to garner headlines and attention regardless of how many decades ago this phrase was created. 3) The definition of blizzards on the east coast should be different from blizzards in other areas. To distinguish them, a ground blizzard (one in which little or no snow is falling) should be different from a blizzard in which heavy snow is falling. Make 10" of snow a minimum requirement for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don I believe 2015-16 could be a better indicator on how to get a 50" snowfall season in a warmer climate. JFK had 40" that winter and parts of Long Island had 50"-- even with a historically warm December, all you really need is one big snowstorm plus a couple of moderate ones, and Long Island had that in that winter. NYC was right on the edge of the other two storms or else Central Park would have had that too. Making that jump from a 40” season to a 50” is a pretty big since it’s statistically easier in our climate to reach 40” than 50”. I think if the 20-21 season had occurred before the record winter warm pattern emerged in 15-16, it would have been an easy 50”+ season for NYC and the coast. Notice that it was still cold enough that winter just inland from the coast at Danbury. They got 53.7” and had an average temperature of 31.5°. The 20-21 winter was the lowest -AO since 09-10 and 10-11. But since it was so much warmer, the coast couldn’t cash in on the 50”+and 60”+ totals like they did in 09-10 and 10-11. The real jackpot got pushed further inland with the historic 40” December snowstorm at BGM. But even the warming winter influence was felt there since the whole 40” snow pack rapidly melted on Christmas with the warmth and heavy rains leading to the record flooding. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Making that jump from a 40” season to a 50” is a pretty big since it’s statistically easier in our climate to reach 40” than 50”. I think if the 20-21 season had occurred before the record winter warm pattern emerged in 15-16, it would have been an easy 50”+ season for NYC and the coast. Notice that it was still cold enough that winter just inland from the coast at Danbury. They got 53.7” and had an average temperature of 31.5°. The 20-21 winter was the lowest -AO since 09-10 and 10-11. But since it was so much warmer, the coast couldn’t cash in on the 50”+and 60”+ totals like they did in 09-10 and 10-11. The real jackpot got pushed further inland with the historic 40” December snowstorm at BGM. But even the warming winter influence was felt there since the whole 40” snow pack rapidly melted on Christmas with the warmth and heavy rains leading to the record flooding. Thanks Chris-- Was 20-21 the winter of the south based block if I'm not mistaken and when Texas had that historically cold winter with all the power outages? Or was it the winter with the coastal huggers when we had two big coastal hugging events (one in December, the other near Groundhog's Day?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Chris-- Was 20-21 the winter of the south based block if I'm not mistaken and when Texas had that historically cold winter with all the power outages? Or was it the winter with the coastal huggers when we had two big coastal hugging events (one in December, the other near Groundhog's Day?) It was both. The south based block was too warm for the immediate coast to have a repeat of 09-10 or 10-11. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pellice Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 30 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: the phrase global warming suddenly becoming climate change is interesting A 2023 book, "The Parrot and the Igloo: Climate and the Science of Denial," by David Lipsky goes into this exact subject in detail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It's interesting Don, we never heard the term "atmospheric river" back in the 80s, 90s, 00s, or even the 10s.... it only started being commonly used now. In previous decades we used to just call them Pacific coastal lows.... why is this term being used more frequently now and why don't we use this term for Atlantic coastal lows too? Atmospheric rivers are plumes of moisture that flow out of the tropics. They can occur outside of the Pacific. The East Coast had one in December. https://wapo.st/49mvHdP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The overpowering Pacific Jet continues with a new all-time 2 day rainfall total at UCLA. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Atmospheric rivers are plumes of moisture that flow out of the tropics. They can occur outside of the Pacific. The East Coast had one in December. https://wapo.st/49mvHdP Thanks Don, I was wondering if we had them too. Are they classified for us in the same way that they are in the Pacific (1 through 5)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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