MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 According to this forum I should take my shorts and tank top out. 1 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: According to this forum I should take my shorts and tank top out. On Saturday yes, we could be in the 60's. Torch!!!! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 32 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The problem is this big N. Pacific High pressure, which is not a product of global warming https://ibb.co/xSDVk08 Actually, it's a product of La Nina https://ibb.co/kmN2YXs But it was hypothesized in the '90s that El Nino's would be more common than La Nina's in global warming, but since the AMO went + in 1995 we have had 15 La Nina's and 9 El Nino's. More La Ninas and MJO 4-7s is how a warming climate has manifested as the WPAC continues to warm faster than the EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: More La Ninas and MJO 4-7s is how a warming climate has manifested as the WPAC continues to warm faster than the EPAC. I don't think La Nina's are a product of global warming. In the '80s and '90s there was a lot of stuff about how the SE, US would be the only place not really effected too much because +PDO/El Nino was correlated at the time to be a global warming variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 44 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I don't think La Nina's are a product of global warming. In the '80s and '90s there was a lot of stuff about how the SE, US would be the only place not really effected too much because +PDO/El Nino was correlated at the time to be a global warming variable. The older more primitive climate models incorrectly forecasted the EPAC to warm faster than the WPAC. But the WPAC has been warming faster with stronger and more frequent La Ninas and MJO 4-7 as the WPAC warm pool rapidly expands. So we get these occasional very strong El Niño’s which release record amounts of stored up heat into the atmosphere from the oceans. As the oceans continue to stratify, less heat will be able to get taken up buy the oceans and El Niños will cause greater global temperature jumps. This is one reason the global temperature spike from this El Niño was greater than 97-98 and 15-16 even though it was a weaker event. Understanding the recent increase in multiyear La Niñashttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01801-6#:~:text=The results from large ensemble,relative to the central Pacific. Twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool warps the MJO life cycle https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The problem is this big N. Pacific High pressure, which is not a product of global warming https://ibb.co/xSDVk08 Actually, it's a product of La Nina https://ibb.co/kmN2YXs But it was hypothesized in the '90s that El Nino's would be more common than La Nina's in global warming, but since the AMO went + in 1995 we have had 15 La Nina's and 9 El Nino's. Other than occasional stretches where this “winter” acts like an El Niño, we still have long Nina stretches like in Jan with the big Plains/Mountain West cold snap and now which should be our best stretch in a Nino but we’re dealing with 2 more weeks of Pacific garbage. When we have an actual Nina or neutral ENSO the WPAC warming amplifies the Nina pattern like crazy and mutes even a strong Nino. This winter has been much like another Nina with a stronger Nino STJ. The N PAC is another disaster for us because we’re stuck in a long term -PDO. Until these factors change we’re likely destined for more winters like this. The cold air is definitely still around-records are challenged all the time in the Plains/West in these big cold snaps but it just never gets favored to come east in a lasting way or without being massively modified. Our bonanza snow period from 2000-18 had a lot of help from the Pacific and now that it’s turned, the pendulum is swinging away. If it’s completely hostile to big Eastern winters there’s little that can counter it. We see how even big -NAO blocks can just recycle around more crap Pacific air masses. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 A life-threatening atmospheric river continues to bring heavy rain and high wind to parts of southern California. Flash flooding, mudslides, and rock slides have been reported. Through 2 pm PST, Downtown Los Angeles has picked up 6.66" of rain. That is a new 2-day February record and the third highest 2-day figure on record. Records go back to 1877. Mild conditions prevailed under abundant sunshine in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. However, the seeds of change are beginning to sprout. The Arctic Oscillation has gone negative (-0.369). That is one of the pieces that will fall into place leading to a large-scale pattern change near mid-month. Tomorrow will be fair and seasonably cool. Much warmer air will then push into the region afterward. The temperature could rise into the 50s in New York City and 60s south of Philadelphia late in the week. The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. As a result, the first 10 days of February could wind up 5°-7° above normal in New York City. Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, were the February 1-10 temperature to average 40.0° or above, that development could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season. The second week of February will likely see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal, even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather. Single-digit cold is unlikely in New York City. During February, cases with warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies see such lows at 55% of frequency as cold ENSO Region 1+2 cases during El Niño winters. During the second half of February, just 17% of cases with a PDO- saw single-digit cold during El Niño winters. January saw a strongly negative PDO. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.8°C for the week centered around January 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.83°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -36.41 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.369 today. On February 3 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.954 (RMM). The February 2-adjusted amplitude was 1.964 (RMM). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: According to this forum I should take my shorts and tank top out. 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Snow droughts happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Snow droughts happen There is a difference between a snow drought and a snow decline. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, bluewave said: There is a difference between a snow drought and a snow decline. That's a key point. For purposes of illustration, below is Washington, DC's 30-year average seasonal snowfall. The red line denotes the timing where Washington, DC's mean winter temperature reached 37 degrees and then continued to rise due to ongoing warming. 4 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 hours ago, Brian5671 said: This is what's amazing. Other than a small area here and there snowfall is way down everywhere. There's almost no snow cover anywhere right now other than mountain regions...Great lakes are virtually ice free....going to moderate any cold that moves south if that persists... It's been beyond bizarre. A 2 week blitz of hardcore winter in January, then almost nothing else but a few brief shots. A friend of mine who does plowing & salting (Detroit area) has had 30 billables so far this season (no idea what exactly that means lol), with 25 of the 30 coming in that 2 week stretch in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: It's been beyond bizarre. A 2 week blitz of hardcore winter in January, then almost nothing else but a few brief shots. A friend of mine who does plowing & salting (Detroit area) has had 30 billables so far this season (no idea what exactly that means lol), with 25 of the 30 coming in that 2 week stretch in January. He should take up landscaping. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 the main mechanism that leads to these larger storms for NYC is a highly anomalous, retrograding -NAO over the Davis Strait. as the -NAO decays, the 50/50 ULL also moves into a favorable spot to force confluence, also becoming highly anomalous. a Pacific trough often deposits a wave into the flow and retrogrades, allowing a transient Rockies ridge to pop (notice the general troughiness over the Rockies beforehand) now, notice how similar this evolution is. very potent 50/50 developing, highly anomalous -NAO retrograding into the Davis Strait, and a Pacific trough waiting to deposit a wave before it backs off. also persistent AK ridging, consistent with the composite this is why people are mentioning potential for larger storms. it isn't for no reason... there are a lot of similarities to patterns that have produced. would be silly not to mention them 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 17 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: He should take up landscaping. He does in the warm season lol. This is obviously not a normal winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 I think CPK getting to 50 inches is tough to do historically so perhaps not a great benchmark. From 1970 through 1999 CPK reached 50 inches 3 times, ironically 2 in the warmest period of the three (1990 through 1999). In fact in that 30 year period, only 3 years total went above 30 inches. By contrast, CPK went above 30 inches 13 times since 2000! In summation, it will be hard to determine who is right for the foreseeable future, since we are likely within another low snowfall period. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Gfs Is looking good for Valentines threat. CMC lost the big cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Still 10 days away? Will circle back tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, psv88 said: Still 10 days away? Will circle back tomorrow Congrats DC and SNJ on gfs 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs Is looking good for Valentines threat. CMC lost the big cutter. Time to start a thread ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, NEG NAO said: Time to start a thread ? Too early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Nice to see a signal for a potential winter storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Too early Canadian is rain a day earlier then GFS with a perfect track in the middle of February - all about the timing of the colder air arriving 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, NEG NAO said: Canadian is rain a day earlier then GFS with a perfect track in the middle of February Look at the shift. Huge shift from 12z. It will shift again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Good to see storms showing up on the models, it will change 100 times from now till then. Eternity away 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Cmc is cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Gfs similiar 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The Valentine's storm bombs out 21 mb off hatteras. Get that 100 miles north an call it a winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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