Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Why are people taking op runs as gospel ? ..but,but you were the one who kept saying "everyone is saying the pattern change is coming".....wasn't that the "gospel" of "everyone"??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..but,but you were the one who kept saying "everyone is saying the pattern change is coming".....wasn't that the "gospel" of "everyone"??? Rule of thumb-if the OP runs show snow at Day 10 they are great models...if they show rain and warmth then they are terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 28 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said: Not saying I think it's gonna snow. My point is more I don't trust anything coming out of the models right a week out. It still may end up dry or just a little rain. Yeah last night's Euro was south with the storm for the 12th. Now it's showing a big cutter. GFS today is way south. Who the heck knows if we're gonna see a storm monday at this point. Way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 28 minutes ago, WX-PA said: They were saying the same things in the 80s and the 90s. but we now have evidence that the climate has warmed and it continues to warm..back in the 70's the book The Cooling was a much talked about book....reading that book now is a waste of time.. https://www.amazon.com/Cooling-Has-Next-Already-Begun/dp/013172312X#customerReviews 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: This is a ridiculous post… why? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 minutes ago, forkyfork said: why? A small sample size considering areas close to NYC have had over 50 inches of snow in one season over the last 4 winters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: A small sample size considering areas close to NYC have had over 50 inches of snow in one season over the last 4 winters. nyc has never had a 50" season without cold. how is that ridiculous to point out? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Since their respective periods of record began, here's the distribution of 50" or above snow seasons by winter (December-February) mean temperature for select Mid-Atlantic and southern New England cities. I used the numbers from Washington, DC to Boston (n=171 such seasons). Warmer cities such as Annapolis, Norfolk, and Richmond have never had such seasons. Only Trenton (1966-67: 35.0°, 54.0") and Washington, DC (2009-10: 35.8°, 56.1") saw such seasons with winter mean temperatures of 35.0° or above. The warming climate will lead to a diminished frequency of such seasons and, in some areas, the possible disappearance of such seasons by the middle of this century. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I’m not denying the winters have been warmer but to say we need volcanic eruptions for 50 inch winter in nyc is ridiculous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, forkyfork said: nyc has never had a 50" season without cold. how is that ridiculous to point out? That’s not what he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Don’t feel bad, they had close to 100 last winter This is how averages work.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 God Forbid we see +5 or +8 in July. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ..the day is coming... It really isnt. Thank the humidity for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Absent some type of major volcanic eruption, NYC is going to have a hard time getting another 50”+ snowfall season with how warm the winters have become since 15-16. NYC has needed a winter average temperature closer to 32° or lower to pull off this feat. The current average winter temperature in NYC last 9 years has been a record 38.5° which has been too warm for a 50” + season. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Average Temperature DJF 1 1995-1996 75.6 32.2° 2 1947-1948 63.9 30.0° 3 2010-2011 61.9 32.8° 4 1922-1923 60.4 29.9° 5 1872-1873 60.2 27.7° 6 2013-2014 57.4 32.9° 7 1874-1875 56.4 27.7° 8 1898-1899 55.9 31.5° 9 1960-1961 54.7 31.7° 10 1993-1994 53.4 31.1° 11 1906-1907 53.2 31.6° 12 1933-1934 52.0 29.1° 13 1966-1967 51.5 34.1° 14 2009-2010 51.4 33.8° 15 1977-1978 50.7 30.3° - 1916-1917 50.7 31.7° - 1915-1916 50.7 32.4° 16 2014-2015 50.3 31.4° Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 41.0 35.7 38.9 38.5 2023-2024 44.6 37.0 40.8 2022-2023 38.5 43.5 41.1 41.0 2021-2022 43.8 30.3 37.3 37.1 2020-2021 39.2 34.8 34.2 36.1 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.1 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 Perhaps the best post of the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: That’s not what he said he said it's been too warm to get a 50" season which the graphs prove 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I’m not denying the winters have been warmer but to say we need volcanic eruptions for 50 inch winter in nyc is ridiculous Well bluewave didn't say NYC absolutely will not have another 50 inch winter without a volcanic eruption. He just said we will have a hard time doing it. I do agree with you though that NYC will probably see another 50 inch winter. With climate change snowstorms will become less frequent (warmer weather and more big rainstorms of course), but a few big blizzards are still likely since we see more big storms. Get lucky with a big blizzard, and NYC can pull off 50 inches in a winter again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: he said it's been too warm to get a 50" season which the graphs prove You obviously didn’t read the entire post… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Allsnow said: You obviously didn’t read the entire post… well what else is going to cool us down enough to get below the threshold for a 50" winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: Well bluewave didn't say NYC absolutely will not have another 50 inch winter without a volcanic eruption. He just said we will have a hard time doing it. I do agree with you though that NYC will probably see another 50 inch winter. With climate change snowstorms will become less frequent (warmer weather and more big rainstorms of course), but a few big blizzards are still likely since we see more big storms. Get lucky with a big blizzard, and NYC can pull off 50 inches in a winter again. “Absent of some type of major volcanic eruption” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, forkyfork said: well what else is going to cool us down enough to get below the threshold for a 50" winter? A favorable Pacific for more then a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: This is a ridiculous post… So you disagree that it’s harder to get very high snowfall totals over 50” in NYC as winters continue to warm? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: “Absent of some type of major volcanic eruption” Right but he didn't completely rule out a 50 inch winter absent of a volcanic eruption. He just said we will have a hard time getting one. He realizes we can get lucky and still pull one off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: So you disagree that it’s harder to get very high snowfall totals over 50” in NYC as winters continue to warm? I don’t disagree that the winters have been warmer the past 9 years. What I disagree with is your assumption that we would need a major volcanic eruption for over 50 inches again in nyc. Just two years ago areas very close to NYC had over 50. We have also had very poor pna the last few winters contributing to the warmer winters. You’re forecasting persistence over a 9 year sample size… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 “Absent of some type of major volcanic eruption” . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 On 2/2/2024 at 10:46 PM, NEG NAO said: Similar to the 60's that were predicted here last Friday several days in advance ? One day later than I said, but it does appear that we have a shot at 60 on Saturday. Might be too many clouds for 60, but I think we'll at least hit upper 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The problem is this big N. Pacific High pressure, which is not a product of global warming https://ibb.co/xSDVk08 Actually, it's a product of La Nina https://ibb.co/kmN2YXs But it was hypothesized in the '90s that El Nino's would be more common than La Nina's in global warming, but since the AMO went + in 1995 we have had 15 La Nina's and 9 El Nino's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: What sort of temp departures are you anticipating for this period? I haven’t combed over model output but my Accuweather app is showing a range of about -2 to +2, of course I’m taking that with an entire salt shaker. What are your thoughts solely WRT temperature during the peak of the block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 45 minutes ago, Allsnow said: This only further supports Tomer Burg’s suppression argument. It’s a case of “be careful what you wish for”. Overpowering -NAO block in combo with a very strong El Niño, which already strongly favors the Mid-Atlantic and SE with a roided up, raging southern stream/STJ @MJO812 You won’t need shorts and a tank top, you’re going to get half of what you want….it’s going to get cold. Snow? Not so sure. Might be too much of a good thing in this case (suppression). I would not be praying for a massive, overpowering -NAO block right now given the strong El Niño 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 40 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I don’t disagree that the winters have been warmer the past 9 years. What I disagree with is your assumption that we would need a major volcanic eruption for over 50 inches again in nyc. Just two years ago areas very close to NYC had over 50. We have also had very poor pna the last few winters contributing to the warmer winters. You’re forecasting persistence over a 9 year sample size… A winter average temperature of 34.1° has been the warmest that NYC was ever able to record 50” of snow. But there have been many more years of that average temperature or colder that didn’t produce a 50” total. So getting to 34.1° or colder is necessary but not sufficient to hit 50” of snow on the season. Even though NYC has averaged 38.5° over the past 9 winters which is a first, I think getting a winter of 34.1° or colder is still possible. But the odds of an outlier year or two this cold in NYC coinciding with a 50” snowfall season is small as winters continue to warm. Notice I didn’t say it was impossible. I just offered the idea that the odds would probably increase if there was enough of a volcanic eruption to temporarily shave a few degrees off our winter average temperatures. 50” snowfall seasons in NYC and average DJF temperatures Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through SepClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Total Snowfall Average Temperature DJF 1 1995-1996 75.6 32.2° 2 1947-1948 63.9 30.0° 3 2010-2011 61.9 32.8° 4 1922-1923 60.4 29.9° 5 1872-1873 60.2 27.7° 6 2013-2014 57.4 32.9° 7 1874-1875 56.4 27.7° 8 1898-1899 55.9 31.5° 9 1960-1961 54.7 31.7° 10 1993-1994 53.4 31.1° 11 1906-1907 53.2 31.6° 12 1933-1934 52.0 29.1° 13 1966-1967 51.5 34.1° 14 2009-2010 51.4 33.8° 15 1977-1978 50.7 30.3° - 1916-1917 50.7 31.7° - 1915-1916 50.7 32.4° 16 2014-2015 50.3 31.4° Record warm 9 year winter average temperatures in NYC Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season Mean 41.0 35.7 38.9 38.5 2023-2024 44.6 37.0 40.8 2022-2023 38.5 43.5 41.1 41.0 2021-2022 43.8 30.3 37.3 37.1 2020-2021 39.2 34.8 34.2 36.1 2019-2020 38.3 39.1 40.1 39.2 2018-2019 40.1 32.5 36.2 36.3 2017-2018 35.0 31.7 42.0 36.1 2016-2017 38.3 38.0 41.6 39.3 2015-2016 50.8 34.5 37.7 41.0 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now