February 2024

[Allsnow]

 

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

That explains the lack of snow.

 

Although some posters are trying to disconnect the two, you cant snow when it is this warm, especially in an uber Urban environment

Which is why I developed the Snow "triangle" for the greater NYC metro area...

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

..hell the tail is going have to be  to as long as a T-Rex's tail to salvage this winter..

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..hell the tail is going have to be  to as long as a T-Rex's tail to salvage this winter..

Or just to get NYC over 10” which is about 35-40% of average. When you need a big shakeup just to get there you see how pathetic things are. 

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Or just to get NYC over 10” which is about 35-40% of average. When you need a big shakeup just to get there you see how pathetic things are. 

I guess the bar is lower for average if we take the 5 year moving average of 13.2 through February 5th into consideration. 
 

[Volcanic Winter]

Yikes. 

FWIW I’m coming around to being in agreement that background warming will worsen bad years with unfavorable decadal variability while still probably enhancing years with the reverse. I think we’ll see some big winters yet in the near future, but also an increase of years like the past two - with very little to show for it. I think this effect will continue to magnify until a breaking point where snowfall climo will begin degrading period even factoring the above (meaning even “good” years are less productive instead of amplified), but when that point precisely is would be impossible to speculate.

Perhaps the -PDO and PAC / MJO forcing is what nudged this year into the ‘bad’ column despite having other things going for it. Seems like we’ll increasingly need ‘everything going right’ to have those big years, but they’ll occasionally still happen.

And I still think we’ll get those months like Jan 22 where sub-regionally an area will excel even in an otherwise poor winter. Me having 16 inches at 22F in that 1/29 storm signifies it’s still possible, but everything has to go right. I do feel we want and need ‘the cold,’ with winter averages being what they are and the overall willingness to go wildly AN, we need sharp cold shots with some legs to ensure events are all frozen. Think of the early Jan storm this year for NYC if it was just a touch colder, still not the best track but they would’ve netted something at least IMO. Dry will always be a risk, but I’ll take the cold every time.

In full agreement this is a ‘boom or bust’ period, probably with more ‘bust’ than in the past overall.

Just IMHO. 

[NEG NAO]

12Z runs so far all over the place for next week Canadian cutter with rain GFS suppressed longer range most of the colder air stays in Canada GFS suppressed storm track..........

[Brian5671]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z runs so far all over the place for next week Canadian cutter with rain GFS suppressed longer range most of the colder air stays in Canada GFS suppressed storm track..........

Fat lady's gearing up....

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yikes. 

FWIW I’m coming around to being in agreement that background warming will worsen bad years with unfavorable decadal variability while still probably enhancing years with the reverse. I think we’ll see some big winters yet in the near future, but also an increase of years like the past two - with very little to show for it. I think this effect will continue to magnify until a breaking point where snowfall climo will begin degrading period even factoring the above (meaning even “good” years are less productive instead of amplified), but when that point precisely is would be impossible to speculate.

Perhaps the -PDO and PAC / MJO forcing is what nudged this year into the ‘bad’ column despite having other things going for it. Seems like we’ll increasingly need ‘everything going right’ to have those big years, but they’ll occasionally still happen.

And I still think we’ll get those months like Jan 22 where sub-regionally an area will excel even in an otherwise poor winter. Me having 16 inches at 22F in that 1/29 storm signifies it’s still possible, but everything has to go right. 

In full agreement this is a ‘boom or bust’ period, probably with more ‘bust’ than in the past overall.

Just IMHO. 

Absent some type of major volcanic eruption, NYC is going to have a hard time getting another 50”+ snowfall season with how warm the winters have become since 15-16. NYC has needed a winter average temperature closer to 32° or lower to pull off this feat. The current average winter temperature in NYC last 9 years has been a record 38.5° which has been too warm for a 50” + season.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Average Temperature DJF
1	1995-1996	75.6	32.2°
2	1947-1948	63.9	30.0°
3	2010-2011	61.9	32.8°
4	1922-1923	60.4	29.9°
5	1872-1873	60.2	27.7°
6	2013-2014	57.4	32.9°
7	1874-1875	56.4	27.7°
8	1898-1899	55.9	31.5°
9	1960-1961	54.7	31.7°
10	1993-1994	53.4	31.1°
11	1906-1907	53.2	31.6°
12	1933-1934	52.0	29.1°
13	1966-1967	51.5	34.1°
14	2009-2010	51.4	33.8°
15	1977-1978	50.7	30.3°
-	1916-1917	50.7	31.7°
-	1915-1916	50.7	32.4°
16	2014-2015	50.3	31.4°

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	41.0	35.7	38.9	38.5
2023-2024	44.6	37.0		40.8
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.1
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Which is why I developed the Snow "triangle" for the greater NYC metro area...

Many people would put "bad luck" in that spot....most people hate the snow. I come here because these are the only people that complain about lack of snow.

[Volcanic Winter]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Absent some type of super volcanic eruption, NYC is going to have a hard time getting another 50”+ snowfall season with how warm the winters have become since 15-16. NYC has needed a winter average temperature closer to freezing or lower to pull off this feat.   Our average winter temperatures over the last 9 years have been too close to 40° to get the job done. The current average winter temperature in NYC last 9 years has been a record 38.5° average. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Average Temperature DJF
1	1995-1996	75.6	32.2°
2	1947-1948	63.9	30.0°
3	2010-2011	61.9	32.8°
4	1922-1923	60.4	29.9°
5	1872-1873	60.2	27.7°
6	2013-2014	57.4	32.9°
7	1874-1875	56.4	27.7°
8	1898-1899	55.9	31.5°
9	1960-1961	54.7	31.7°
10	1993-1994	53.4	31.1°
11	1906-1907	53.2	31.6°
12	1933-1934	52.0	29.1°
13	1966-1967	51.5	34.1°
14	2009-2010	51.4	33.8°
15	1977-1978	50.7	30.3°
-	1916-1917	50.7	31.7°
-	1915-1916	50.7	32.4°
16	2014-2015	50.3	31.4°

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	41.0	35.7	38.9	38.5
2023-2024	44.6	37.0		40.8
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.1
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

Yeah, undeniably concerning. 

A true supervolcanic eruption won’t be in the cards for many millennia, but we could pull a VEI 6-7 at any time. Would probably help cool the oceans as has happened in the past, though that works best with an Aleutians high latitude eruption. Need Edgecumbe, Davidof, or some other wildcard to wake up and stir the pot for us. Novarupta was an eccentric event that isn’t famously known for its climate impact despite the size, but the years following were cold regardless IIRC. Iceland doesn’t normally do eruptions of this size and type, though there are exceptions (big blasts from Hekla, Katla, and Öræfajökull are capable of it). 

HTHH was an odd wildcard and is not well represented statistically in recurrence intervals for events of that size. Maybe we get one in the not too distant future to stir things up a bit for us, though I think the next may come from the Andes which is a bit trickier. Regardless, grain of salt because this is all tea leaves until something truly wakes up, and there’s only one that comes to mind atm (in the Andes).

(Know you were being tongue in cheek a bit, but figured I’d give my thoughts since they obviously can be a wildcard shakeup)

Short of that, it’s undeniable how our snowiest years tend to be colder and within or near DFa Humid Continental climate classification. 

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Absent some type of super volcanic eruption, NYC is going to have a hard time getting another 50”+ snowfall season with how warm the winters have become since 15-16. NYC has needed a winter average temperature closer to 32° or lower to pull off this feat. The current average winter temperature in NYC last 9 years has been a record 38.5° which has been too warm for a 50” + season.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Average Temperature DJF
1	1995-1996	75.6	32.2°
2	1947-1948	63.9	30.0°
3	2010-2011	61.9	32.8°
4	1922-1923	60.4	29.9°
5	1872-1873	60.2	27.7°
6	2013-2014	57.4	32.9°
7	1874-1875	56.4	27.7°
8	1898-1899	55.9	31.5°
9	1960-1961	54.7	31.7°
10	1993-1994	53.4	31.1°
11	1906-1907	53.2	31.6°
12	1933-1934	52.0	29.1°
13	1966-1967	51.5	34.1°
14	2009-2010	51.4	33.8°
15	1977-1978	50.7	30.3°
-	1916-1917	50.7	31.7°
-	1915-1916	50.7	32.4°
16	2014-2015	50.3	31.4°

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	41.0	35.7	38.9	38.5
2023-2024	44.6	37.0		40.8
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.1
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

Such seasons will become less frequent as the warming continues to occur. 2009-10 provides perhaps an illustration of where the limits might lie. Washington, DC saw 56.1" of snow with a December-February mean temperature of 35.8°.

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I guess the bar is lower for average if we take the 5 year moving average of 13.2 through February 5th into consideration. 
 

The bar is even lower if we take the 1 year moving average.

With so much variability for so long, I have no confidence on what we will experience as average snowfall, which is affected by more than just average temperatures.

If we don't get something in the next 7 or 8 weeks, it's over.

[Krs4Lfe]

In terms of the forecast pattern change around 2/13, it still seems like we're moving into a colder/stormier regime. A few things to note however: 

1. It doesn't take much to be colder and stormier than we are now, as we will have torched the first half of February anyway

2. Even with the spike in the +PNA and western ridging, combined with the east coast troughing, it appears that there's a risk for storms to crash into the west coast. While that appears to be the risk, it can also be a positive if the storms undercut the ridge and move through the Southwest

3. Persistent storminess (as indicated by above normal precip anomalies) look likely along the southern tier, and then just offshore in the Atlantic. That indicates storms riding through the south and then attempting to move up the coast, but low pressure over southeast Canada pushes that out to sea

4. In short, it appears that this pattern change will indeed happen, it will become colder than it is now, and there will be more storminess across CONUS. But too many variables come into play for seeing snow in this region. For now, I don't see those variables. I see colder and stormier, but not what is needed to drag this winter out of its abysmal state that it's in for much of CONUS. Still shocks me to see how aside from a 2 weeks in January, snow has been non-existent for much of the nation

[Stormchaserchuck1]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Absent some type of major volcanic eruption, NYC is going to have a hard time getting another 50”+ snowfall season with how warm the winters have become since 15-16. NYC has needed a winter average temperature closer to 32° or lower to pull off this feat. The current average winter temperature in NYC last 9 years has been a record 38.5° which has been too warm for a 50” + season.

Do you really believe that? NYC just had a pretty amazing 40" streak not a decade ago.  The predominant pattern lately is -PNA, which of course could change, as the 50s and 60s were the last time -PNA was so common. In +PNA I think NYC does much better. 

[Allsnow]

40 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Absent some type of major volcanic eruption, NYC is going to have a hard time getting another 50”+ snowfall season with how warm the winters have become since 15-16. NYC has needed a winter average temperature closer to 32° or lower to pull off this feat. The current average winter temperature in NYC last 9 years has been a record 38.5° which has been too warm for a 50” + season.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Average Temperature DJF
1	1995-1996	75.6	32.2°
2	1947-1948	63.9	30.0°
3	2010-2011	61.9	32.8°
4	1922-1923	60.4	29.9°
5	1872-1873	60.2	27.7°
6	2013-2014	57.4	32.9°
7	1874-1875	56.4	27.7°
8	1898-1899	55.9	31.5°
9	1960-1961	54.7	31.7°
10	1993-1994	53.4	31.1°
11	1906-1907	53.2	31.6°
12	1933-1934	52.0	29.1°
13	1966-1967	51.5	34.1°
14	2009-2010	51.4	33.8°
15	1977-1978	50.7	30.3°
-	1916-1917	50.7	31.7°
-	1915-1916	50.7	32.4°
16	2014-2015	50.3	31.4°

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	41.0	35.7	38.9	38.5
2023-2024	44.6	37.0		40.8
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.1
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

This is a ridiculous post…

[Stormchaserchuck1]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Such seasons will become less frequent as the warming continues to occur. 2009-10 provides perhaps an illustration of where the limits might lie. Washington, DC saw 56.1" of snow with a December-February mean temperature of 35.8°.

I disagree that 09-10 is the limit. The global precipitation has been increasing with the warming. I think a more realistic expectation is that the temperature keeps increasing, but the number of bigger storms increases too. That was the trend in the early 2000s through about 2016, then 7-8 years off of it doesn't really break the overall trend imo. 

Look at how much precipitable water we have this year. 

https://ibb.co/NjZ5TZ8

No other year really comes close. 15-16 is #2, at about 80% of the total anomaly. 

[Brian5671]

14 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

In terms of the forecast pattern change around 2/13, it still seems like we're moving into a colder/stormier regime. A few things to note however: 

1. It doesn't take much to be colder and stormier than we are now, as we will have torched the first half of February anyway

2. Even with the spike in the +PNA and western ridging, combined with the east coast troughing, it appears that there's a risk for storms to crash into the west coast. While that appears to be the risk, it can also be a positive if the storms undercut the ridge and move through the Southwest

3. Persistent storminess (as indicated by above normal precip anomalies) look likely along the southern tier, and then just offshore in the Atlantic. That indicates storms riding through the south and then attempting to move up the coast, but low pressure over southeast Canada pushes that out to sea

4. In short, it appears that this pattern change will indeed happen, it will become colder than it is now, and there will be more storminess across CONUS. But too many variables come into play for seeing snow in this region. For now, I don't see those variables. I see colder and stormier, but not what is needed to drag this winter out of its abysmal state that it's in for much of CONUS. Still shocks me to see how aside from a 2 weeks in January, snow has been non-existent for much of the nation

This is what's amazing.   Other than a small area here and there snowfall is way down everywhere.   There's almost no snow cover anywhere right now other than mountain regions...Great lakes are virtually ice free....going to moderate any cold that moves south if that persists...

[MJO812]

47 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Fat lady's gearing up....

Why are people taking op runs as gospel ?

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Terrible winter for alot of areas from the Midwest to the Northeast.

Syracuse is 50 inches below normal.

Part of a long-term trend that really took off in earnest around 2010.

[donsutherland1]

19 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I disagree that 09-10 is the limit. The global precipitation has been increasing with the warming. I think a more realistic expectation is that the temperature keeps increasing, but the number of bigger storms increases too. That was the trend in the early 2000s through about 2016, then 7-8 years off of it doesn't really break the overall trend imo. 

Look at how much precipitable water we have this year. 

https://ibb.co/NjZ5TZ8

No other year really comes close. 15-16 is #2, at about 80% of the total anomaly. 

The limit refers to perhaps the winter mean temperature being near the limit where 50” seasons can occur, not the amount of snowfall for a given season.

[Allsnow]

Big rain storm on the euro for the 12th, so much for the dry weather 

[SBUWX23]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Big rain storm on the euro for the 12th, so much for the dry weather 

Euro is always right too

[Allsnow]

Just now, SBUWX23 said:

Euro is always right too

CMC agrees 

[JerseyWx]

50 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I disagree that 09-10 is the limit. The global precipitation has been increasing with the warming. I think a more realistic expectation is that the temperature keeps increasing, but the number of bigger storms increases too. That was the trend in the early 2000s through about 2016, then 7-8 years off of it doesn't really break the overall trend imo. 

Look at how much precipitable water we have this year. 

https://ibb.co/NjZ5TZ8

No other year really comes close. 15-16 is #2, at about 80% of the total anomaly. 

Right but it doesn't matter how much moisture there is when no cold air is available.  You'd have to have everything come together perfectly for storms to work out as we keep getting warmer winters.

[SBUWX23]

Just now, Allsnow said:

CMC agrees 

Not saying I think it's gonna snow. My point is more I don't trust anything coming out of the models right a week out. It still may end up dry or just a little rain. 

[WX-PA]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Absent some type of major volcanic eruption, NYC is going to have a hard time getting another 50”+ snowfall season with how warm the winters have become since 15-16. NYC has needed a winter average temperature closer to 32° or lower to pull off this feat. The current average winter temperature in NYC last 9 years has been a record 38.5° which has been too warm for a 50” + season.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Oct through Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Total Snowfall	Average Temperature DJF
1	1995-1996	75.6	32.2°
2	1947-1948	63.9	30.0°
3	2010-2011	61.9	32.8°
4	1922-1923	60.4	29.9°
5	1872-1873	60.2	27.7°
6	2013-2014	57.4	32.9°
7	1874-1875	56.4	27.7°
8	1898-1899	55.9	31.5°
9	1960-1961	54.7	31.7°
10	1993-1994	53.4	31.1°
11	1906-1907	53.2	31.6°
12	1933-1934	52.0	29.1°
13	1966-1967	51.5	34.1°
14	2009-2010	51.4	33.8°
15	1977-1978	50.7	30.3°
-	1916-1917	50.7	31.7°
-	1915-1916	50.7	32.4°
16	2014-2015	50.3	31.4°

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
Mean	41.0	35.7	38.9	38.5
2023-2024	44.6	37.0		40.8
2022-2023	38.5	43.5	41.1	41.0
2021-2022	43.8	30.3	37.3	37.1
2020-2021	39.2	34.8	34.2	36.1
2019-2020	38.3	39.1	40.1	39.2
2018-2019	40.1	32.5	36.2	36.3
2017-2018	35.0	31.7	42.0	36.1
2016-2017	38.3	38.0	41.6	39.3
2015-2016	50.8	34.5	37.7	41.0

They were saying the same things in the 80s and the 90s.

[ILoveWinter]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Big rain storm on the euro for the 12th, so much for the dry weather 

8 days until we see precipitation (10 going back to Saturday) is pretty dry if you ask me, especially considering how wet and awful it's been.

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

8 days until we see precipitation (10 going back to Saturday) is pretty dry if you ask me, especially considering how wet and awful it's been.

I had over .50 here last Thursday 

[Volcanic Winter]

22 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

They were saying the same things in the 80s and the 90s.

My only point of contention is, respectfully, were winters as warm then on average, consecutively? That seems difficult to ignore, especially next to the stat that shows our snowiest winters as being colder on average.  Just IMO. 

Also asking because I don’t know the stats off the top of my head, but I don’t believe they were.