snowman19 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Makes sense for why it's so hard to get it below freezing around here in midwinter even on a north wind lol. February 2015 was the polar opposite of this (pun intended!) NYC is currently in 1st place for the fewest lows of freezing or below by February 4th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Oct 1 to Feb 4 Missing Count 1 2024-02-04 23 0 - 2016-02-04 23 0 - 2002-02-04 23 0 - 2 2012-02-04 24 0 3 2023-02-04 25 0 4 2017-02-04 26 0 - 1932-02-04 26 0 5 2007-02-04 28 0 6 1999-02-04 29 0 7 1998-02-04 32 0 8 2013-02-04 33 0 - 1983-02-04 33 0 9 1949-02-04 34 0 - 1933-02-04 34 0 10 2020-02-04 35 0 - 2006-02-04 35 0 - 1995-02-04 35 0 - 1991-02-04 35 0 - 1973-02-04 35 0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Daily Feb. 14 post. All similar. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Extended EPS trending more suppressed Feb 19-26 than previous runs. So it will probably come down to the very end of February into the first week of March to see if we get some improvement. New run Feb 19 to 26 Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Extended EPS trending more suppressed Feb 19-26 than previous runs. So it will probably come down to the very end of February into the first week of March to see if we get some improvement. New run Feb 19 to 26 Old run looks like El Nino in Jan.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Extended EPS trending more suppressed Feb 19-26 than previous runs. So it will probably come down to the very end of February into the first week of March to see if we get some improvement. New run Feb 19 to 26 Old run That tweet chain I just posted went into depth about the suppression risk through late February. He doesn’t think the pattern gets favorable for snow here until the tail end of the month into the start of March either 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Daily Feb. 14 post. All similar. Cooler, drier pattern for NYC, but not sustainable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 24 minutes ago, qg_omega said: looks like El Nino in Jan.... The extended EPS actually looks pretty good from Feb 26 into March as the Pacific finally backs off and heights rise out West. If that 500 mb pattern actually verifies, then it could produce a 4” or 6”+ snowfall event in NYC. We need to really swing for the fences that period for NYC to get over 10” on the season. But it’s going to come right down to the wire. February 26 to March 4th..Can we hold until under 120 hrs? Stay tuned… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Great disco: He is getting bashed on twitter for his comments. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 0 21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Daily Feb. 14 post. All similar. Pattern still looks good for snow and cold 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 13 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Cooler, drier pattern for NYC, but not sustainable? Phase 3 is cold and it takes over 15 days to get into mid phase 3. Factor in a 5 day lag and you have a few extra days remaining in 3. Blocking seems more sustainable. MA is favored more sure, however we can still get moderate events. This is clearly a 1980s setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 He is getting bashed on twitter for his comments.Funny. Earthlight praised his analysis 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Starting to get late early as Yogi Berra famously states....What a dumpster fire this winter has turned out to be. Today felt frigid here with a low of 26 lol. (finally got some radiational cooling under clear skies this weekend) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Starting to get late early as Yogi Berra famously states....What a dumpster fire this winter has turned out to be. Today felt frigid here with a low of 26 lol. (finally got some radiational cooling under clear skies this weekend)It has that early 90s feel to it. For the youngsters, that’s the 1900s.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, North and West said: It has that early 90s feel to it. For the youngsters, that’s the 1900s. . Sure does-or even a wetter version of 01-02 or 11-12.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 @bluewave no snow in nyc until March? I think we get something before that with the pattern depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave no snow in nyc until March? I think we get something before that with the pattern depicted If we delay it-it's likely over. It may be over anyway-how many winters with 2 inches on the season in early Feb ended up being decent? I'll take none for $500 Alex.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 53 minutes ago, bluewave said: The extended EPS actually looks pretty good from Feb 26 into March as the Pacific finally backs off and heights rise out West. If that 500 mb pattern actually verifies, then it could produce a 4” or 6”+ snowfall event in NYC. We need to really swing for the fences that period for NYC to get over 10” on the season. But it’s going to come right down to the wire. February 26 to March 4th..Can we hold until under 120 hrs? Stay tuned… This aligns really well with raindancewx stormy March forecast. Really don't want to wait that long though. March 2018 was great but climo still worked against us near the coast. Even a 1-2 weeks of snow potential earlier than March 2018 is better for us so hopefully late Feb into 1st week of March we score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: He is getting bashed on twitter for his comments. By weenies who want snow 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: @bluewave no snow in nyc until March? I think we get something before that with the pattern depicted Always possible to sneak in something. But the first chance for NYC to get to 10” or greater on the season will probably have to wait until the last week of February or first week of March. Provided that actual pattern advertised by the extended EPS verifies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, bluewave said: NYC is currently in 1st place for the fewest lows of freezing or below by February 4th. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Min Temperature <= 32 Oct 1 to Feb 4 Missing Count 1 2024-02-04 23 0 - 2016-02-04 23 0 - 2002-02-04 23 0 - 2 2012-02-04 24 0 3 2023-02-04 25 0 4 2017-02-04 26 0 - 1932-02-04 26 0 5 2007-02-04 28 0 6 1999-02-04 29 0 7 1998-02-04 32 0 8 2013-02-04 33 0 - 1983-02-04 33 0 9 1949-02-04 34 0 - 1933-02-04 34 0 10 2020-02-04 35 0 - 2006-02-04 35 0 - 1995-02-04 35 0 - 1991-02-04 35 0 - 1973-02-04 35 0 That explains the lack of snow. Although some posters are trying to disconnect the two, you cant snow when it is this warm, especially in an uber Urban environment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: If we delay it-it's likely over. It may be over anyway-how many winters with 2 inches on the season in early Feb ended up being decent? I'll take none for $500 Alex.... Descent is done. But the March snowstorm after a shit winter isnt unusual at all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Always possible to sneak in something. But the first chance for NYC to get to 10” or greater on the season will probably have to wait until the last week of February or first week of March. Provided that actual pattern advertised by the extended EPS verifies. February 29, 2024 - Leap Year Day 1 Snowstorm....... Today in New York Weather History: Leap Year Day (February 29) - New York City Weather Archive (typepad.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Descent is done. But the March snowstorm after a shit winter isnt unusual at all True. March 2019 had a decent storm after a mostly garbage winter-got a foot or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Once again, a clean eastward propagatation in subsidence...the models handled this well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Was down to 26 now to 35. Clear and looking dry through Friday. Clouds return later Friday and Sat with front coming through. Ahead of the front upper 50s / low 60s Sat? Colder by the 13th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (1991) NYC: 70 (1991) LGA: 70 (1991) Lows: EWR: 3 (1996) NYC: -6 (1918) LGA: 6 (1995) Historical: 1745: Today is National Weatherman/Meteorologist day, commemorating the birth of John Jeffries in 1745. Jeffries, one of America's first weather observers, began taking daily weather observations in Boston, MA, in 1774, and he made the first balloon observation in 1784. You can read a narrative from the Library of Congress of the two aerial voyages of Doctor Jeffries with Mons. Blanchard: with meteorological observations and remarks. The first voyage was on November 13th, 1784, from London into Kent. The second was on January 7th, 1785, from England into France. 1887 - San Francisco experienced its greatest snowstorm of record. Nearly four inches was reported in downtown San Francisco, and the western hills of the city received seven inches. Excited crowds went on a snowball throwing rampage. (David Ludlum) 1920: An intense nor'easter dumped 17.5 inches of snow over three days in New York City Central Park, New York. Boston, MA, saw 12.2 inches of snow on this day. 1976: Record-breaking snowfall of just two inches fell in Sacramento, California. February 5, 1976, is the only time since November 1941 when snow was reported in Sacramento. 1986: A supercell thunderstorm tracked through the Tomball area northwest of Houston, TX, and produced four tornadoes along with damaging microburst winds and up to tennis ball size hail. An F3 tornado killed two people, injured 80 others, and devastated a mobile home park and the David Wayne Hooks Airport. In addition, 300 aircraft were either damaged or destroyed. Much of the more substantial hail was propelled by 60 to 80 mph winds, resulting in widespread moderate damage. The total damage from this storm was 80 million dollars. 1987 - Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region caused flooding in parts of south central Texas. Del Rio TX was soaked with two inches of rain in two hours prior to sunrise. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Cold and snow invaded the southern U.S. Roswell NM was buried under 16.5 inches of snow in 24 hours, an all-time record for that location. Parts of the Central Gulf Coast Region reported their first significant snow in fifteen years. Strong winds in Minnesota and the Dakotas produced wind chill readings as cold as 75 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Severe cold gripped much of the nation. Thirty cities reported new record low temperatures for the date. Morning lows of 9 above at Astoria OR and 27 below zero at Ely NV were records for February. In Alaska, Point Barrow warmed to 24 degrees above zero, and Nome reached 30 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1990 - For the second time in two days, and the third time in a week, high winds plagued the northwestern U.S. Winds in Oregon gusted to 60 mph at Cape Disappointment, and wind gusts in Washington State reached 67 mph at Bellingham. The first in a series of cold fronts began to produce heavy snow in the mountains of Washington and Oregon. Ten inches of snow fell at Timberline OR. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 2006 - Mount Washington Observatory in New Hampshire reaches a high of 41°F, the warmest February 5th on record at the summit and two degrees off the monthly mark, where records have been kept since 1932. The Weather Doctor 2008 - The deadliest round of tornadoes in nearly a quarter century kill 58 people in the south. The storms kill 32 people in Tennessee, 14 in Arkansas, seven in Kentucky and five in Alabama. Damage is likely to be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. The Weather Doctor 2008 - The Super Tuesday 2008 Tornado Outbreak has been one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in the US, with 59 fatalities reported. So far, it ranks in the top 15 deadly tornado outbreaks (and the highest number of tornado deaths since 1985). According to the SPC Storm Reports, there were over 300 reports of tornadoes, large hail (up to 4.25 inches in diameter in Texas, Arkansas, and Missouri), and damaging wind gusts from Texas to Ohio and West Virginia. The outbreak produced at least 64 tornadoes, some producing EF-3 and EF-4 damage. 2010 - A mega-snowstorm, which President Obama dubbed Snowmageddon, buried the Washington D.C. area with more than 30 inches of snow in some areas. At American University in Washington the official snowfall was 27.5 inches. Snowfall totals in the Washington DC area range from a low of 17.9 inches at Ronald Reagan National Airport to 40 inches in the northern suburb of Colesville, MD. Dulles Airport reported 32.4 inches, which established a new two-day snowfall record. The Baltimore-Washington International Airport, MD, measured 24.8 inches from the storm breaking the record for the largest two day snowfall there. It is one of the worst blizzards in the city's history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: Always possible to sneak in something. But the first chance for NYC to get to 10” or greater on the season will probably have to wait until the last week of February or first week of March. Provided that actual pattern advertised by the extended EPS verifies. I’m in the same camp. I think NYC limps to double digits for the season by St. Paddy’s Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 30 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: By weenies who want snow No by people who are taunting a great pattern ahead by looking at the ensembles and long range models. Alot of forecasters are being cautious 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 People need to realize that 1 Mecs/ Hecs storm can bring NYC near normal and the pattern ahead can certainly do that. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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