MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Eps is flatter than the op for the storm around the 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cold and possibly snowy What do you think ? It has been said by everyone that a pattern change is coming. Everything supports it right now I think similar to January's pattern change which wasn't a big deal a couple light snow events like Don mentioned in a previous post..........that Nick Gregory 15 -23 inches was some ratings hungry producer twisting his arm to say it.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cold and possibly snowy What do you think ? It has been said by everyone that a pattern change is coming. Everything supports it if you could get a repeat of January and that week, I would take it and run. I don’t know what exactly you’re looking for, but you’ll be lucky to get that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1754230938953789706?s=46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, TriPol said: https://x.com/burgwx/status/1754230938953789706?s=46 can't access his quick thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated with 15 -23 inches ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: my guess is that you get a vigorous wave coming onshore around the 20th, the Aleutian low retrogrades, spiking the PNA, and that's how you get clobbered. everything is in place there, TPV is perfectly elongated No confidence in a 360 hour prog, even if ensemble. I do like the elongated TPV though. That WNW lobe from NW Hudson Bay into the NWT is ripe to come plunging southeast (and possibly phase) if the western ridge pumps. That is the way you could do something big. Like I said though 360 hours out....need this look to persist as we move forward in time. Like the look but too far out for more than passing interest from me at this point. Plenty frigid in central and northern Canada so cold air is there to be tapped if everything were to fall into place. Would modify more than usual with bare U.S. ground and warm lakes but could turn very cold (at least 1 shot of it) if things fall into place. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 hours ago, qg_omega said: Can’t amplify up the coast in that pattern. Maybe mid Atlantic this works but even then the cold isn’t impressive That’s why we need a strong enough ridge out West in later model runs to create enough separation between systems that a low coming into the SW doesn’t act as a kicker for a low moving off the Mid-Atlantic or Southeast coasts like is happening tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, MANDA said: No confidence in a 360 hour prog, even if ensemble. I do like the elongated TPV though. That WNW lobe from NW Hudson Bay into the NWT is ripe to come plunging southeast (and possibly phase) if the western ridge pumps. That is the way you could do something big. Like I said though 360 hours out....need this look to persist as we move forward in time. Like the look but too far out for more than passing interest from me at this point. i generally agree, but this progression has such high confidence in modeling that you’re able to identify windows where potential is elevated. i’d say somewhere around the 21-25th holds the greatest potential for a larger event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: i generally agree, but this progression has such high confidence in modeling that you’re able to identify windows where potential is elevated. i’d say somewhere around the 21-25th holds the greatest potential for a larger event when should we begin to see models catching on to this idea ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: when should we begin to see models catching on to this idea ? IMO a larger event in that window with this much model agreement should start to appear within about a week. Seems like this would be the time a larger threat is identified early and relatively locked in, were one to happen. But still about a week before we cross into that threshold. My interest will perk up next weekend, assuming all else holds. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 22 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: when should we begin to see models catching on to this idea ? Feb 10 2025 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On track for one of the warmest Jan 20th to Feb 15th periods on record for the CONUS as a whole. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: right now I think similar to January's pattern change which wasn't a big deal a couple light snow events like Don mentioned in a previous post..........that Nick Gregory 15 -23 inches was some ratings hungry producer twisting his arm to say it.... Nick never said 15-23" more snow is coming. 15-23" was his winter forecast for NYC Metro (and the 95 corridor from Philly to CT, as per his map) and he's saying there's the potential for another ~15" of snow this winter and since most of that area has seen 2-8" of snow that would bring that area into his 15-23" seasonal forecast. https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyc-2024-mid-winter-forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Typo, it was a PNA+. It shows that the days with such a pattern in February are colder than climatology. Unfortunately, no such database exists for all the variables. Some of the data is revised fairly frequently. MJO phases and amplitudes, especially for recent dates, are revised every few months by the Bureau of Meteorology. Thanks for confirming those were temps in those regimes and that it was a typo on the PNA. Too bad there's not snow data for those regimes, since 95% of the poster on these boards are snow hounds and the $64K question for all of them is, what level of confidence do we have that the coming pattern will actually deliver at least normal snowfall, if not well above average snowfall and maybe even a KU storm. In their backyards. Will be interesting to watch it all unfold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Nick never said 15-23" more snow is coming. 15-23" was his winter forecast for NYC Metro (and the 95 corridor from Philly to CT, as per his map) and he's saying there's the potential for another ~15" of snow this winter and since most of that area has seen 2-8" of snow that would bring that area into his 15-23" seasonal forecast. https://www.fox5ny.com/news/nyc-2024-mid-winter-forecast ok ok - he still owes NYC 15 minus 2.3 = 12.7 min.......good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Feb 4th - I've got my first of the spring bulbs popping up already. Our garden out front gets full sun this time of year, and with the lack of snow cover and milder temps, well, let it begin, albeit way too early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Beautiful weekend. It certainly was nice to finally see a lot of sunshine, and of course sunshine is all we need for temps to overperform. It made it to 50 here today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Out West, a major rainstorm was getting underway in California. Through 5 pm EST, Santa Barbara had received 1.16" of rain, breaking the daily record of 0.50" from 1990. In the Northeast, sunshine and mild temperatures prevailed. It could turn briefly cooler for Monday and Tuesday before much warmer air pushes into the region. The temperature could exceed 50° on one or more days late in the week. The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. As a result, the first 10 days of February could wind up 5°-7° above normal in New York City. Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, were the February 1-10 temperature to average 40.0° or above, that development could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season. The second week of February will likely see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal, even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather. Single-digit cold is unlikely in New York City. During February, cases with warm ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies see such lows at 55% of frequency as cold ENSO Region 1+2 cases during El Niño winters. During the second half of February, just 17% of cases with a PDO- saw single-digit cold during El Niño winters. January saw a strongly negative PDO. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February. The SOI was -28.05 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.248 today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 27 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: ok ok - he still owes NYC 15 minus 2.3 = 12.7 min.......good luck I too hold Nick Gregory personally responsible for not paying the imaginary snow tax. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Gfs coming in better for the 13th 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs coming in better for the 13th Better ??? Also its too far out to even speculate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Better ??? Also its too far out to even speculate Yea better to be south east of us at this Time. Still think this is still too early in the period. Need the blocking to get established first. Pattern has tons of possibilities, which means nothing until we land something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 why is this image showing green over the metro ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Picard said: Feb 4th - I've got my first of the spring bulbs popping up already. Our garden out front gets full sun this time of year, and with the lack of snow cover and milder temps, well, let it begin, albeit way too early. I noticed the same thing too yday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: ok ok - he still owes NYC 15 minus 2.3 = 12.7 min.......good luck Climo is only about 10-11" from the 2nd half of Feb onwards, so ~13" more isn't a ridiculous amount if this pattern ends up being as productive as many think it will be - not talking historic amounts, but certainly a few to several inches above climo doesn't seem crazy. We'll see soon, of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Climo is only about 10-11" from the 2nd half of Feb onwards, so ~13" more isn't a ridiculous amount if this pattern ends up being as productive as many think it will be - not talking historic amounts, but certainly a few to several inches above climo doesn't seem crazy. We'll see soon, of course... not crazy at all but this winter has underperformed since the beginning so can't be too optimistic. This will probably verify the cold air doesn't stay in place long enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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