MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough The favorable pattern is moving up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s mostly Pacific air under the block as the weeklies don’t look very cold into late February. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures. So February should finish with warmer than normal departures due to the warmth into mid month. Feb 5-12 Feb 12-19 Feb 19-26 Thanks, do you think we'll warm up into early March or keep this pattern? I think it was ANT, who posted the CFS which showed cold weather for the first half of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: That’s the question. What is the PAC doing at that point? Even if a SSW was to favor our side of the pole and the PAC sucks, all the high latitude blocking would do is trap PAC air underneath Yes, this has been happening the last few years. We even had an SSW last year and it didn't do much for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's good enough for snow Storm track dependent yes. It’s still prime snow climo. Luckily we aren’t seeing this a month later or for sure we would be in trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Low of 27 and now to 33. Clear. Sunny and dry much of the week overall normal to above normal. Mid month change around the 13/14 still on the models all featuring a long range storm to coincide with the change to cooler. A nice drying out period before any more precip channces. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Storm track dependent yes. It’s still prime snow climo. Luckily we aren’t seeing this a month later or for sure we would be in trouble. true - until I see some real potential storms showing up on multiple models multiple consecutive runs and Walt starts a thread within 150 hours with cold enough air in place with a favorable track then will take this pattern change seriously........... i see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The favorable pattern is moving up At this point it's nothing but a snooze fest and I don't care what happens anymore. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Records: Highs: EWR: 69 (1991) NYC: 68 (1991) LGA: 68 (1991) Lows: EWR: 5 (2023) rare quick cold kast year NYC: 0 (1918) /Below zero unfficially at EWR and the start of a record cold stretch LGA: 5 (2023) Historical: 1842: A dreadful tornado passed over Mayfield, Kirkland, and other Cuyahoga and Lake Counties in Ohio. According to the Cleveland Herald, no less than 30 houses, barns, and buildings were entirely demolished or very much shattered. A "report from Kirtland says that one man and one child are dead." 1924: In Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 20.3 inches of snow fell in 24 hours. This ranks as the most snowfall in 24 hours since 1884. This storm caused over $1 million in damage. Streetcar and train service crippled. Snowdrifts of 8 to 10 feet high were common, along with much ice on trees and wires. Schools were closed, and several plate glass windows were broken. 1961 - The third great snowstorm of the winter season struck the northeastern U.S. Cortland NY received 40 inches of snow. (David Ludlum) 1987 - Gales lashed the northern Pacific coast and the coast of northern New England. A storm in the central U.S. produced five inches of snow at Rapid City SD. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - A winter storm produced heavy snow from the Upper Ohio Valley to New England, with up to 12 inches reported in Vermont and New Hampshire. Strong northerly winds in the Upper Midwest produced wind chill readings as cold as 60 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - Two dozen cities in the south central and northwestern U.S. reported new record low temperatures for the date. The low of 14 below zero at Boise ID was a February record. A winter storm continued in the southwestern U.S. Alta UT reported 49 inches of snow in four days, Wolf Creek CO reported 66 inches in six days, including 28 inches in 24 hours, and up to 84 inches buried the ski resorts of northern New Mexico in three days. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - A winter storm produced heavy snow in the northeastern U.S. Snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 13 inches at Gorham, with 11 inches reported at Portland. Totals in New Hampshire ranged up to 14 inches at Franconia, with 13 inches reported at Portsmouth. A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain caused numerous traffic accidents in eastern New York State resulting in three deaths and fourteen injuries. Subzero cold also gripped parts of the northeastern U.S. Caribou ME and Houlton ME reported morning lows of 15 degrees below zero. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1995: A massive nor'easter pounded areas from the southern Mid-Atlantic to northern New England. It would be the only significant storm in the 94-95 winter season. Over 20 inches of snow buried parts of upstate New York. Wind chills dropped as cold as 40 degrees below zero. Behind the storm, arctic air crossing the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes produced intense lake effect squalls for nearly two weeks from the 4th through the 14th. Snowfall totals for the storm ranged from near two to seven feet. During the storm east of Lake Ontario, snow was falling at the incredible rate of five inches an hour! The heavy snow combined with strong winds produced whiteouts and hazardous driving. Actual storm totals downwind of Lake Erie included: Erie County: West Seneca 39 inches, Orchard Park 36 inches, Cheektowaga 36 inches, Colden 32 inches, and Buffalo Airport 31 inches; Genesee County: Corfu 38 inches; Chautauqua County: Sinclairville 27 inches and Jamestown 15 inches. Downwind of Lake Ontario, storm totals included: Oswego County: Palermo 85 inches, Fulton 60 inches, and Oswego 46 inches; Lewis County: Montague 66 inches, Highmarket 48 inches, and Lowville 36 inches; Cayuga County: Fairhaven 36 inches, Wayne County: Wolcott 22 inches; and Jefferson County: Adams 47 inches. 2004 - 7.15 inches of rain deluges Pinson, AL, setting an all-time record rainfall over 24 hours for the town. The Weather Doctor 2007 - Kahului reports a minimum temperature of 54°F, a daily low temperature record for the date. The Weather Doctor 2011 - A winter storm settled four to six inches of snow over northern Texas, including Dallas, just days before the Super Bowl between the Pittsburg Steelers and the Green Bay Packers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The one storm winter 1995: A massive nor'easter pounded areas from the southern Mid-Atlantic to northern New England. It would be the only significant storm in the 94-95 winter season. Over 20 inches of snow buried parts of upstate New York. Wind chills dropped as cold as 40 degrees below zero. Behind the storm, arctic air crossing the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes produced intense lake effect squalls for nearly two weeks from the 4th through the 14th. Snowfall totals for the storm ranged from near two to seven feet. During the storm east of Lake Ontario, snow was falling at the incredible rate of five inches an hour! The heavy snow combined with strong winds produced whiteouts and hazardous driving. Actual storm totals downwind of Lake Erie included: Erie County: West Seneca 39 inches, Orchard Park 36 inches, Cheektowaga 36 inches, Colden 32 inches, and Buffalo Airport 31 inches; Genesee County: Corfu 38 inches; Chautauqua County: Sinclairville 27 inches and Jamestown 15 inches. Downwind of Lake Ontario, storm totals included: Oswego County: Palermo 85 inches, Fulton 60 inches, and Oswego 46 inches; Lewis County: Montague 66 inches, Highmarket 48 inches, and Lowville 36 inches; Cayuga County: Fairhaven 36 inches, Wayne County: Wolcott 22 inches; and Jefferson County: Adams 47 inches. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX-PA Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, SACRUS said: The one storm winter 1995: A massive nor'easter pounded areas from the southern Mid-Atlantic to northern New England. It would be the only significant storm in the 94-95 winter season. Over 20 inches of snow buried parts of upstate New York. Wind chills dropped as cold as 40 degrees below zero. Behind the storm, arctic air crossing the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes produced intense lake effect squalls for nearly two weeks from the 4th through the 14th. Snowfall totals for the storm ranged from near two to seven feet. During the storm east of Lake Ontario, snow was falling at the incredible rate of five inches an hour! The heavy snow combined with strong winds produced whiteouts and hazardous driving. Actual storm totals downwind of Lake Erie included: Erie County: West Seneca 39 inches, Orchard Park 36 inches, Cheektowaga 36 inches, Colden 32 inches, and Buffalo Airport 31 inches; Genesee County: Corfu 38 inches; Chautauqua County: Sinclairville 27 inches and Jamestown 15 inches. Downwind of Lake Ontario, storm totals included: Oswego County: Palermo 85 inches, Fulton 60 inches, and Oswego 46 inches; Lewis County: Montague 66 inches, Highmarket 48 inches, and Lowville 36 inches; Cayuga County: Fairhaven 36 inches, Wayne County: Wolcott 22 inches; and Jefferson County: Adams 47 inches. Yep remember on Long Island it changed to rain and some snow got washed away, but that winter you would have taken it.Turned really cold after the storm,I think it was the only arctic outbreak that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 14 minutes ago, SACRUS said: The one storm winter 1995: A massive nor'easter pounded areas from the southern Mid-Atlantic to northern New England. It would be the only significant storm in the 94-95 winter season. Over 20 inches of snow buried parts of upstate New York. Wind chills dropped as cold as 40 degrees below zero. Behind the storm, arctic air crossing the relatively warm waters of the Great Lakes produced intense lake effect squalls for nearly two weeks from the 4th through the 14th. Snowfall totals for the storm ranged from near two to seven feet. During the storm east of Lake Ontario, snow was falling at the incredible rate of five inches an hour! The heavy snow combined with strong winds produced whiteouts and hazardous driving. Actual storm totals downwind of Lake Erie included: Erie County: West Seneca 39 inches, Orchard Park 36 inches, Cheektowaga 36 inches, Colden 32 inches, and Buffalo Airport 31 inches; Genesee County: Corfu 38 inches; Chautauqua County: Sinclairville 27 inches and Jamestown 15 inches. Downwind of Lake Ontario, storm totals included: Oswego County: Palermo 85 inches, Fulton 60 inches, and Oswego 46 inches; Lewis County: Montague 66 inches, Highmarket 48 inches, and Lowville 36 inches; Cayuga County: Fairhaven 36 inches, Wayne County: Wolcott 22 inches; and Jefferson County: Adams 47 inches. the one storm that winter and yet a coastal hugger so we changed to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Yep remember on Long Island it changed to rain and some snow got washed away, but that winter you would have taken it.Turned really cold after the storm,I think it was the only arctic outbreak that winter. I dont remember this winter at all because both 93-94 and 95-96 were so great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, WX-PA said: Yep remember on Long Island it changed to rain and some snow got washed away, but that winter you would have taken it.Turned really cold after the storm,I think it was the only arctic outbreak that winter. wait, I actually just remembered something about this season-- did we have a big arctic shot in early April when we were in the 20s even during the day with strong winds? I remember a deep arctic shot in April with clear skies and January type temperatures but no snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: That’s the question. What is the PAC doing at that point? Even if a SSW was to favor our side of the pole and the PAC sucks, all the high latitude blocking would do is trap PAC air underneath The Pacific influence has been overpowering in both La Niñas and El Niños in recent years. The trough always finds a way to sneak into the Western US whether we have a +PNA or -PNA. When there is a Southeast ridge in place the lows cut to the Lakes or hug the coast. When we don’t have a SE Ridge in place like tomorrow the lows get suppressed to our south. So there is more that can go wrong with a trough out West down to the Baja and we really need luck on our side. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 That’s the question. What is the PAC doing at that point? Even if a SSW was to favor our side of the pole and the PAC sucks, all the high latitude blocking would do is trap PAC air underneathYou must be a blast at parties.. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It’s mostly Pacific air under the block as the weeklies don’t look very cold into late February. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures. So February should finish with warmer than normal departures due to the warmth into mid month. Feb 5-12 Feb 12-19 Feb 19-26 I'll bet the farm that February finishes above normal by at least 2 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Pacific influence has been overpowering in both La Niñas and El Niños in recent years. The trough always finds a way to sneak into the Western US whether we have a +PNA or -PNA. When there is a Southeast ridge in place the lows cut to the Lakes or hug the coast. When we don’t have a SE Ridge in place like tomorrow the lows get suppressed to our south. So there is more that can go wrong with a trough out West down to the Baja and we really need luck on our side. So the epic pattern that people are forecasting isn't going to happen ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: That’s the question. What is the PAC doing at that point? Even if a SSW was to favor our side of the pole and the PAC sucks, all the high latitude blocking would do is trap PAC air underneath but why would it suck? nothing is pointing in that direction, even climo by itself would lead to a good Pacific pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, MANDA said: I'll bet the farm that February finishes above normal by at least 2 degrees. with below normal snowfall ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So the epic pattern that people are forecasting isn't going to happen ? That’s for this week… pattern improves after the 15th. Not sure why @snowman19and @bluewave don’t like this h5 look 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: with below normal snowfall ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: That’s for this week… pattern improves after the 15th. Not sure why @snowman19and @bluewave don’t like this h5 look that trough near Baja is split flow... allows for large waves to enter the flow and increases phasing opportunities. there really aren't any ways to criticize this pattern. it's one thing if it happens (much higher confidence than normal that it does), but that is pretty obviously a very good configuration 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 RMM plots are FINALLY taking the MJO into 8 and 1. hovmollers have shown this progression for a long time, but the RMM plots have had a difficult time of it 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: RMM plots are FINALLY taking the MJO into 8 and 1. hovmollers have shown this progression for a long time, but the RMM plots have had a difficult time of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: we should see IO forcing for a while. nice 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 17 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: with below normal snowfall ? Based on what I'm seeing so far I'd have to give the nod to below normal snowfall for February. Developing pattern favors keeping us on the colder side of normal for second half of the month but IMO not near cold enough to wipe out the warmth of the first half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Still in track for 14th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Still in track for 14th. No kicking the can here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 No real changes from my earlier thinking concerning the forthcoming pattern change. The latest ECMWF weeklies, extended portion of the EPS, and CFSv2 weeklies all support the idea of a pattern change. As for the issue of single-digit readings, those remain very unlikely. Since 1950, there have been only two days with single digits during February 16-29 where the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.5C or above and the PDO was negative. In contrast, there were 10 cases when the PDO was positive. The PDO remains negative. Considering the strongly negative preliminary January number, the PDO is very likely to have a negative average during February. Warm ENSO Region 1+2 cases also favor less severe cold. Snowfall prospects continue to favor lighter events. Historic climatology for winters with very low snowfall through February 15th argues strongly in favor of limiting expectations to lighter events with perhaps the possibility of a moderate 3"-4" event. Until the guidance consistently shows otherwise, that remains a reasonable course. The colder pattern could continue into the first week of March. Afterward, things become much more uncertain. I am aware of social media speculation comparing the upcoming change to February 2010. What that speculation misses is that Winter 2009-10 had already seen significant snowfall prior to February 20th (including in December) and was much colder over the December-January period than the current winter. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Yes, this has been happening the last few years. We even had an SSW last year and it didn't do much for us. That's the 1970 through 1999 period for yah. We were way too spoiled in 00 through 18 that we thought all blocking would produce. The MA cashing in, like January, happened more often. I guess the miss alignment with the Pacific helps south of us while we need the Pacific to help storms gain latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 You must be a blast at parties..Sorry that I don’t wishcast cold and snow because that has worked out so well the last 3 winters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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