February 2024

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we've seen a dramatic change towards a final warming of the SPV that instantly couples with the TPV. this would have near immediate effects... not the typical SSW where you'd need to wait a few weeks. you'd see sustained blocking here, likely into March

Baked Alaska let’s goooooooo. Bring the cold, keep it long enough in a nino and something will eventually work out. It’s not going to be cold and dry for three straight weeks. 

[bluewave]

February may turn out to be our driest month of winter.

 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

February may turn out to be our driest month of winter.

 

yes, but I would imagine that it's pretty heavily skewed by the first 10-15 days of the month. the back half is near normal

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

February may turn out to be our driest month of winter.

 

Mid Atlantic snowstorm pattern?

[NEG NAO]

47 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Mid Atlantic snowstorm pattern?

Too be determined at a later date......need the northern and southern streams to interact in a way to bring storms up the coast and timing is crucial.....HP in southeast Canada needed - cutters are less likely but are still possible with not enough blocking.....

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

February may turn out to be our driest month of winter.

 

take out the first 2 weeks and what does it look like ?

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yes, but I would imagine that it's pretty heavily skewed by the first 10-15 days of the month. the back half is near normal

and you can have a dry month but with more snowfall than normal.  10 inches of snowfall is typically about 1 inch of rain.  So if you have a month where half the precip is rain and half is snow, and a total of 2" liquid equivalent, that's 10" of snow and 1" of rain and it's a snowy month that's also drier than normal.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Its main reason I have skeptical of any mod or strong La Nina next winter....it may not even be weak, I still think it ends up near neutral

a weak or even moderate la nina next winter after the el nino of this winter would be very good for snowfall, neutral not so much

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

take out the first 2 weeks and what does it look like ?

The main issue is the very active STJ coupled with a piece of the trough hanging back near the Baja. So that trough acts as a kicker and storms track to our south. Hopefully, by later in the month we can build heights more over the SW so we can get a storm or two to track far enough north into our region. But it’s uncertain when we have seen the trough getting stuck in the SW for so much of the winter. So we’ll probably have to take a wait and see approach once we get to around the Presidents Day weekend and beyond. 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another fair and pleasant day. Temperatures will again rise to somewhat above normal levels. The dry weather will likely continue through into at least next weekend.

It could turn briefly cooler early next week before much warmer air pushes into the region. The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. As a result, the first 10 days of February could wind up 5°-7° above normal in New York City.

Potentially, New York City could wind up with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above during the February 1-10 period. Since 1869, there have been 9 prior cases. Five have occurred since 2000 and eight have occurred since 1990: 1952, 1990, 1991, 1999, 2005, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020. Seven of those nine years saw less than 10" snowfall for the remainder of the season following February 10th. Only one saw more than 20.0" (22.7", 2005). The least was the trace of snow that fell in 2020. The mean snowfall was 7.2" while the median snowfall was 6.0". In short, this could be a reinforcing signal for a below to much below normal snowfall season.

The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -22.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.670 today.

On February 1 the MJO was not available. The January 31-adjusted amplitude was 2.114 (RMM).

 

[the_other_guy]

I don’t care if it snows or not, although I would like to see a little bit more. But I don’t want to see one more drop of rain or clouds. As a matter fact, I would like to enter into the beginning stages of a drought. Not to bad. Just enough. If the rest of the month was 40F with sun, Id be happy

[SACRUS]

It don't rain in southern California, is that how the song goes

 

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

It don't rain in southern California, is that how the song goes

 

They can keep that there.

[MJO812]

All good signs

[Roger Smith]

Could add to historical notes, on Feb 3, 1947 Canada saw its lowest ever recorded temperature of -81 F at Snag located near the Alaska border. That station no longer exists, it was active due to WW-II construction projects and closed many years ago. Watson Lake in southeast Yukon had its lowest ever value of -74 F on Jan 31, 1947, so it was quite a cold week up there (I noted the Alaska records mentioned today and previous days incl -80 F).

1947 is also famous for a very severe winter in Britain and northern Europe, the Baltic Sea was almost totally frozen over (which is quite unusual south of Finland) and in England and Ireland, large snow drifts stopped road and railway travel for days or weeks at a time. It was the coldest February on record (-1.9 C) in the Central England Temperature Series (1659 to present), 1895 was 0.1 C warmer at -1.8 C, but still has the coldest week or 10-day intervals. The coldest January was 1795 (-3.1 C) and the coldest December was 1890 at -0.8 C although 2010 came very close at -0.7 C. 

Those record low averages sound fairly moderate (they would be close to average for Albany NY) but as experienced in a country in those days without central heating and beside a large body of open water (North Sea), so that strong east to northeast winds can bring a lot of snow and also that sort of weather over there often ends up in the -3 to -1 C range, keeping means up, but if it clears at any point, it can go down below -20 C in rural areas as it did in those years I mentioned. The coldest day on record in Britain was Jan 20, 1838 with a mean of -12 C in the CET. 1962-63 was also a very cold winter in Britain and Ireland, with locally heavy snowfalls. There were days in Jan 1963 and again in Dec 1981 with averages near -9 C, as cold as it has been since Feb 1895.

Odd factoid -- early winter cold is not well correlated on either side of Atlantic, but late winter cold is very well correlated. I guess it has to do with Greenland blocking highs being more likely to produce a cold Feb or March.  

 

[lee59]

How's this for a forecast--- (high elevations of the Sierra Nevada north of Tahoe)

 

Snow showers likely, mainly after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 22. South wind 6 to 11 mph becoming east 13 to 18 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 8am, then areas of fog after 5pm. High near 32. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 30 mph becoming south 36 to 46 mph. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible.

Sunday Night

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of fog between 9pm and midnight. Low around 26. Windy, with a south southwest wind 44 to 55 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.

Monday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 30. Windy, with a south southwest wind 21 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

All good signs

I've been reading that the CFS came in with a forecast for a cold first half of March too, all connected to that major SSW projected for mid month.

[dseagull]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

How's this for a forecast--- (high elevations of the Sierra Nevada north of Tahoe)

 

Snow showers likely, mainly after 2am. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy fog after 3am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 22. South wind 6 to 11 mph becoming east 13 to 18 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Sunday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy fog before 8am, then areas of fog after 5pm. High near 32. Windy, with an east wind 20 to 30 mph becoming south 36 to 46 mph. Winds could gust as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible.

Sunday Night

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of fog between 9pm and midnight. Low around 26. Windy, with a south southwest wind 44 to 55 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.

Monday

Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 30. Windy, with a south southwest wind 21 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

I love over-performing, multi-foot snow showers!

[NorthShoreWx]

I forget who/what had which torch and when, but the last 9 days here, while notably above normal, do not seem torchy. Biggest positive departures were on the mins...which have lead to a low diurnal difference most days.  I think today (2/3)  was the only one of the 9 with any sunshine:

1/26  41   45

1/27  39   43

1/28  35   40

1/29  34   40

1/30  33   37

1/31  31   39

2/1  30   46

2/2  36   42

2/3  31   42

 

[snowman19]

I forget who/what had which torch and when, but the last 9 days here, while notably above normal, do not seem torchy. Biggest positive departures were on the mins...which have lead to a low diurnal difference most days.  I think today (2/3)  was the only one of the 9 with any sunshine:
1/26  41   45
1/27  39   43
1/28  35   40
1/29  34   40
1/30  33   37
1/31  31   39
2/1  30   46
2/2  36   42
2/3  31   42
 

2/1-2/15 is certain to average way above normal for the NYC metro area. It all depends on the 13 day period from 2/16-2/29 now….does it actually live up to all the snow and cold hype?

[bluewave]

NYC continues its record under 2” streak while Boston is closing in on its longest under 4” run.

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 2 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	735	2024-02-03
2	685	1974-01-08
3	620	1919-12-23
4	416	1914-02-13
5	406	1998-03-21

 

Number of Consecutive Days Snowfall < 4 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Run Length	Ending Date
1	711	2013-02-07
-	711	1987-01-18
2	707	2024-02-02
3	702	2003-02-06
4	686	1937-12-31
5	674	1974-01-08

[brooklynwx99]

just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too

i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough

[donsutherland1]

Week ahead numbers: A mild week with an absence of snowfall lies ahead.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

2/1-2/15 is certain to average way above normal for the NYC metro area. It all depends on the 13 day period from 2/16-2/29 now….does it actually live up to all the snow and cold hype?

Have you read the material in the main forum about the Major SSW and the thinking being that the cold period will extend well into March because of it?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too

i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough

Looks like the projected midmonth pattern change will coincide with a major SSW which will have its greatest impact in early to mid March, so the cold pattern might stick around for awhile?

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just a gorgeous evolution... very high confidence for a semi permanent 50/50 ULL, west based blocking, and a stream of waves off the Pacific undercutting the AK ridge. all three ensembles share this same progression as well, there is great agreement there too

i'm kinda wondering if that trough moving eastward in the Pacific is the storm, or if we just get a lobe from said trough

what is happening at the surface during this period ? Where we reside.........

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Have you read the material in the main forum about the Major SSW and the thinking being that the cold period will extend well into March because of it?

 

I have and the stratosphere is still extremely difficult to predict. What are the actual effects on the SPV? Which side of the pole does it favor? What is the state of the PAC? 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Have you read the material in the main forum about the Major SSW and the thinking being that the cold period will extend well into March because of it?

 

It’s mostly Pacific air under the block as the weeklies don’t look very cold into late February. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures. So February should finish with warmer than normal departures due to the warmth into mid month. 

Feb 5-12

Feb 12-19

Feb 19-26

 

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s mostly Pacific air under the block as the weeklies don’t look very cold into late February. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures. So February should finish with warmer than normal departures due to the warmth into mid month. 

Feb 5-12

Feb 12-19

Feb 19-26

 

That’s the question. What is the PAC doing at that point? Even if a SSW was to favor our side of the pole and the PAC sucks, all the high latitude blocking would do is trap PAC air underneath

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s mostly Pacific air under the block as the weeklies don’t look very cold into late February. Near normal to slightly below normal temperatures. So February should finish with warmer than normal departures due to the warmth into mid month. 

Feb 5-12

Feb 12-19

Feb 19-26

 

That's good enough for snow