February 2024

[bluewave]

The 2010s will probably be remembered as the modern golden era for NYC snowfall. 

10 year NYC average snowfall 

49-50 to 58-59….19.9

59-60 to 68-69….32.0

69-70 to 78-79…..22.5

79-80 to 88-89…..19.7

89-90 to 98-99….24.4

99-00 to 08-09….28.0

09-10 to 18-19……37.9

19-20 to 20-29……13.2 so far 

 

[MANDA]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

The big warm up for us comes by later next week as the block moves over to the Northeast. Then it will take a while for temperatures to get back closer to normal by mid-February. 
 

 

Yep, as the block moves more east that is when the torch fires.  That is when the big warm departures will make their mark on first half of February.  Hopefully we can get back to around normal by the 15th. and then get colder from there.  Not at all likely any cold mid and late month will wipe out the positive departures from the first half of the month.  Also, unless February is unusually stormy we should finish near or below normal in the precipitation department.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The 2010s will probably be remembered as the modern golden era for NYC snowfall. 

10 year NYC average snowfall 

49-50 to 58-59….19.9

59-60 to 68-69….32.0

69-70 to 78-79…..22.5

79-80 to 88-89…..19.7

89-90 to 98-99….24.4

99-00 to 08-09….28.0

09-10 to 18-19……37.9

19-20 to 20-29……13.2 so far 

 

That's absolutely amazing considering we had 4 straight years of 40"+ between 02-03 and 05-06

That 20 year period was better for snowfall than any 20 year period since the early 1900s.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

early prediction for the total solar eclipse on April 8th lol?

 

Cloudy.

[North and West]

.

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Cloudy.

Probably more likely than not, I planned a trip to north of Syracuse anyway, it would suck if it was a sunny day and we missed it. 

[Allsnow]

Pouring 

.6 to start the dry period 

[SBUWX23]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Pouring 

.6 to start the dry period 

The new normal. Wet dry periods. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

with your luck you'd arrive in Syracuse and it would resemble Syracuse in Sicily..

I looked at climate stats for Syracuse for April 8th and I was surprised how many mild days there have been there on that day.  It seems it's warmer there on that day than it is here.... probably because it's far inland.

 

[ILoveWinter]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Pouring 

.6 to start the dry period 

Def an over performer, was forecasted a few tenths and over by now. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said:

Def an over performer, was forecasted a few tenths and over by now. 

Yup. Defo rains over me currently 

[lee59]

Some might find this interesting in these boring weather times:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/US-Snowfall-1900-2019-Decade-Decade-Look

 

 

 

[dseagull]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Here's something I want to know, with this cyclical aspect of the equation, is the cycle of the exact same length each time or is there some variation? I think there has to be some variation because the number of years in each group changes somewhat with each iteration of the cycle.

So it was 15 years between 1955-1969 and 19 winters between 2000 and 2018. The period in between could be a transitional phase between the two opposite ends of the cycle.

The dynamics are so complex, that I believe it would require records that have been kept for millenia.  It's very difficult to draw conclusions with what little data we have.   Even with carbon dating in ice cores, we only get a small snapshot of what is going on in an insanely long geological period. 

 

Then again, the science of observing and predicting weather wouldn't likely be so enjoyable if we had all of the answers.  When I went to school for oceanography, I was quickly humbled.  

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, dseagull said:

The dynamics are so complex, that I believe it would require records that have been kept for millenia.  It's very difficult to draw conclusions with what little data we have.   Even with carbon dating in ice cores, we only get a small snapshot of what is going on in an insanely long geological period. 

 

Then again, the science of observing and predicting weather wouldn't likely be so enjoyable if we had all of the answers.  When I went to school for oceanography, I was quickly humbled.  

That was one of my all time favorite classes.  Oceanography is absolutely fascinating.  I especially liked reading about how land masses and oceans change over milenia.  Researching how whales used to walk on land hundreds of millions years ago and how they are finding their fossils now in the deserts of Egypt and up high in the Himalayas was absolutely incredible.

Tethys the ocean existed where the Middle East exists today and there was no Mediterranean Sea back then either.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tethys_Ocean

 

Meteorology and quantum mechanics have this in common lol-- both have tremendous amounts of uncertainty.

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Some might find this interesting in these boring weather times:

 

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/US-Snowfall-1900-2019-Decade-Decade-Look

 

 

 

wow nice find, I really wish they showed NYC data before 1900 but I like how our snowfall averages back then were over 30" per year for those earlier decades.  I wonder if the snow was measured differently back then?

 

[dseagull]

It's a fascinating field, and I still have no regrets obtaining a degree that I never turned into a PhD.  Unfortunately, the professions in the field would have never afforded me the financial means I desired and my ability to travel as much as I want. 

 

It's still enjoyable to study, especially when you're an insomniac.    Or in today's case (or this winter for that matter,) when it won't stop raining long enough to get work done. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, dseagull said:

It's a fascinating field, and I still have no regrets obtaining a degree that I never turned into a PhD.  Unfortunately, the professions in the field would have never afforded me the financial means I desired and my ability to travel as much as I want. 

 

It's still enjoyable to study, especially when you're an insomniac.    Or in today's case (or this winter for that matter,) when it won't stop raining long enough to get work done. 

That's the thing, when you learn about all the varied and wonderful features of our planet, the first thing you want to do is travel and see them for yourself.  It's a pity that the income one can obtain from fascinating fields like this doesn't match the endless amount of curiosity it stimulates.

 

[North and West]

I looked at climate stats for Syracuse for April 8th and I was surprised how many mild days there have been there on that day.  It seems it's warmer there on that day than it is here.... probably because it's far inland.
 

*top thing to do: leave.


.

[LakePaste25]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Latitude offers some benefits from proximity to colder air masses. It’s difficult to know whether the recent drop in snowfall is due to the early stages of a transition to a less snowy climate from background warming, a “low snow” cycle from internal variability, or both. I suspect that it is a combination and that seasonal snowfall will decline to near 20” by the mid-2030s. There will still be snowy winters. 2009-10 in Washington, DC with a warmer climate provides an example. 

Not to derail the conversation, but one must also look at snowfall frequencies and amounts, i.e. climates that rely on “big dog” events versus those that rely on more frequent, smaller events to reach snowfall averages. Here, we are finding that cities such as Buffalo are not seeing the same regression to lower snowfall seasons as places like Syracuse, Erie, and Cleveland where all 3 cities are 5+ years in a row of below normal snowfall. Places that rely on more frequent smaller events are finding that the increase in moisture does not outweigh the decrease in # of events due to more frequent warm spells. 
 

For what it’s worth, I generally lump most of the I-95 cities into places that favor “big dog” events just like Buffalo, which means these areas can withstand some warming and even see increases in snowfall averages, simply because you don’t need it to be cold all winter to get these huge events. The 15-16 winter is a great example of this for NYC. 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

Not to derail the conversation, but one must also look at snowfall frequencies and amounts, i.e. climates that rely on “big dog” events versus those that rely on more frequent, smaller events to reach snowfall averages. Here, we are finding that cities such as Buffalo are not seeing the same regression to lower snowfall seasons as places like Syracuse, Erie, and Cleveland where all 3 cities are 5+ years in a row of below normal snowfall. Places that rely on more frequent smaller events are finding that the increase in moisture does not outweigh the decrease in # of events due to more frequent warm spells. 
 

For what it’s worth, I generally lump most of the I-95 cities into places that favor “big dog” events just like Buffalo, which means these areas can withstand some warming and even see increases in snowfall averages, simply because you don’t need it to be cold all winter to get these huge events. The 15-16 winter is a great example of this for NYC. 

Yes, that is true. Until temperatures reach a certain threshold, the impact of big events on snowfall could outweigh the decline in snowfall from fewer smaller events. I suspect that this dynamic contributed to some extent to the snowy winters in NYC during the 2000s and early 2010s even as winters gradually warmed. It is also contributing to an ongoing increase in Caribou's snowfall. At some point, the rising warmth can't be overcome and seasonal snowfall (average) falls even as big events and big winters remain possible. Washington, DC has reached that point. Philadelphia may be near that point. I expect that NYC will reach that point in the not-too-distant future at the current rate of warming winters.

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, North and West said:

*top thing to do: leave.


.

so much more snow there, but the summers suck

[LibertyBell]

23 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, that is true. Until temperatures reach a certain threshold, the impact of big events on snowfall could outweigh the decline in snowfall from fewer smaller events. I suspect that this dynamic contributed to some extent to the snowy winters in NYC during the 2000s and early 2010s even as winters gradually warmed. It is also contributing to an ongoing increase in Caribou's snowfall. At some point, the rising warmth can't be overcome and seasonal snowfall (average) falls even as big events and big winters remain possible. Washington, DC has reached that point. Philadelphia may be near that point. I expect that NYC will reach that point in the not-too-distant future at the current rate of warming winters.

This is also why we don't see near normal snowfall winters anymore, everything seems to be either well below normal or well above normal.

Ditto with individual snowstorms, it's either 1-3 inches or 6"+

 

[GaWx]

 Per the latest model consensus, there’s a very good chance that the PNA for the 2nd half of Feb (2/15-29) will average +0.5+ and the AO will average sub -1. The following El Niño 2nd half of Febs met both of those conditions:

1988, 1983, 1978, 1977, 1970, 1964, 1958

 So, during 1957-1988, 7 of the 13 El Niños met both of these. But interestingly the subsequent 10 didn’t. So, 2024 would be the first of the last 11. How did those 7 last half of Febs play out at NYC in terms of temperature anomaly and snowfall?

1988: 0/0.6”

1983: +4/0.0”

1978: -8/1.1”

1977: -1/1.9”

1970: -5/2.3”

1964: -6/10.6”

1958: -9/8.4”

AVG: -4/3.6”

 

 So, temps were MBN twice, BN twice, NN twice, and AN once. Snowfall was MAN twice, BN three times, and MBN twice. The average was BN for temperatures and NN for snowfall.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Brutal out today. Nothing worse than cold rain over preforming. It’s been raining moderately for hours on the uws. To think, at the top of the Nordstrom tower flat roof 1550’ it’s probably snowing or close to it. 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, dseagull said:

It's a fascinating field, and I still have no regrets obtaining a degree that I never turned into a PhD.  Unfortunately, the professions in the field would have never afforded me the financial means I desired and my ability to travel as much as I want. 

 

It's still enjoyable to study, especially when you're an insomniac.    Or in today's case (or this winter for that matter,) when it won't stop raining long enough to get work done. 

What’s your profession that you are on the water all winter?

[NEG NAO]

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How many pattens changes have failed to materialize during the last several winters??....Here is what we do know, the northern hemisphere has seen record warmth over the last year or so..

12Z GFS thinks this one is going to fail too

[Great Snow 1717]

21 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS thinks this one is going to fail too

Can't be!!..we were all guaranteed a pattern change!!!

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, that is true. Until temperatures reach a certain threshold, the impact of big events on snowfall could outweigh the decline in snowfall from fewer smaller events. I suspect that this dynamic contributed to some extent to the snowy winters in NYC during the 2000s and early 2010s even as winters gradually warmed. It is also contributing to an ongoing increase in Caribou's snowfall. At some point, the rising warmth can't be overcome and seasonal snowfall (average) falls even as big events and big winters remain possible. Washington, DC has reached that point. Philadelphia may be near that point. I expect that NYC will reach that point in the not-too-distant future at the current rate of warming winters.

Yeah, we usually don’t find out the temperature threshold until it has already past. And there could be multiple thresholds which factor into our seasonal snowfall. One is the warming local average winter temperatures which result in declining snowfall averages over time. Another is a SST threshold in a part of the world like the MJO 4-7 regions which shift the storm tracks and lead to warmer local temperatures and lower seasonal snowfall. The record snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 may have also been related to warming in some area of the planet which created the forcing patterns necessary for so many amazing snowfall seasons. But we may have surpassed that goldilocks snowfall zone when the 15-16 super El Niño resulted in the big jump in global temperatures. Almost like the 15-16 to 17-18 winters while warm, still had the lingering heavy snowfall pattern which seemed to emerge around 02-03 and peaked during the 2010s. Following the 17-18 winter, we have been been struggling with both warmer temperatures and unfavorable Pacific patterns leading to also unfavorable storm tracks and storm day temperatures. We did have a great 20-21 season but NYC couldn’t rival the 50”+ seasons like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. January 22 was also a great month out on Long Island, but more disappointing around NYC to CNJ. 

[the_other_guy]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, we usually don’t find out the temperature threshold until it has already past. And there could be multiple thresholds which factor into our seasonal snowfall. One is the warming local average winter temperatures which result in declining snowfall averages over time. Another is a SST threshold in a part of the world like the MJO 4-7 regions which shift the storm tracks and lead to warmer local temperatures and lower seasonal snowfall. The record snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 may have also been related to warming in some area of the planet which created the forcing patterns necessary for so many amazing snowfall seasons. But we may have surpassed that goldilocks snowfall zone when the 15-16 super El Niño resulted in the big jump in global temperatures. Almost like the 15-16 to 17-18 winters while warm, still had the lingering heavy snowfall pattern which seemed to emerge around 02-03 and peaked during the 2010s. Following the 17-18 winter, we have been been struggling with both warmer temperatures and unfavorable Pacific patterns leading to also unfavorable storm tracks and storm day temperatures. We did have a great 20-21 season but NYC couldn’t rival the 50”+ seasons like 09-10, 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. January 22 was also a great month out on Long Island, but more disappointing around NYC to CNJ. 

It already passed for NYC. Unless you’re in denial.

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Can't be!!..we were all guaranteed a pattern change!!!

I'm skeptical but the change is coming according to everyone .