February 2024

[dseagull]

Did a 126 mile round trip yesterday.   Surface temperatures were generally 39-41 degrees, with a moderate breeze from the south.  Obviously, upwelling isn't a factor in the near coastal zone during the winter, as the water is well mixed and no thermocline exists until you reach the 20 or 30 fathom line.

This is considerably warmer than average for the beginning of February. Gannets are still raining down like missiles on small schools of Atlantic herring and Boston mackerel.  Otherwise, it's a barren time of year. 

I'll have a mate on the boat for my next job and will collect some good shots for all to enjoy.   Until then, it's time to fix my auto pilot and and address a generator issue.  

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Did a 126 mile round trip yesterday.   Surface temperatures were generally 39-41 degrees, with a moderate breeze from the south.  Obviously, upwelling isn't a factor in the near coastal zone during the winter, as the water is well mixed and no thermocline exists until you reach the 20 or 30 fathom line.

This is considerably warmer than average for the beginning of February. Gannets are still raining down like missiles on small schools of Atlantic herring and Boston mackerel.  Otherwise, it's a barren time of year. 

I'll have a mate on the boat for my next job and will collect some good shots for all to enjoy.   Until then, it's time to fix my auto pilot and and address a generator issue.  

Well at least SST have dropped, in the middle of January they were reported to be around 43-45.  Since you've been doing this for awhile, you probably know this-- when are the lowest SST usually-- late February or early March?  If this projected mid to late month cold happens, we could get widespread mid to upper 30s SST (depends on what kind of staying power it has.)

 

 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Did a 126 mile round trip yesterday.   Surface temperatures were generally 39-41 degrees, with a moderate breeze from the south.  Obviously, upwelling isn't a factor in the near coastal zone during the winter, as the water is well mixed and no thermocline exists until you reach the 20 or 30 fathom line.

This is considerably warmer than average for the beginning of February. Gannets are still raining down like missiles on small schools of Atlantic herring and Boston mackerel.  Otherwise, it's a barren time of year. 

I'll have a mate on the boat for my next job and will collect some good shots for all to enjoy.   Until then, it's time to fix my auto pilot and and address a generator issue.  

water surface temps or air temps ?

 

[dseagull]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

water surface temps or air temps ?

 

SST

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, dseagull said:

SST

it was obvious when you mentioned upwelling

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Winter 2023-2024 will likely finish at 39°F or above.

It’s the first time the 9 year winter moving average temperature in NYC went over 38.0°.

 

[donsutherland1]

28 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Don,

I wonder how much latitude offers increased opportunities for snowfall even in a warming climate. I.e., it's popular for someone to state "we have DC's 1980s climate". However, I find it hard to believe it's a one to one comparison (could be any city to the south). There is still a good pool of cold air left at the poles, so increased volatility, given our latitude, could allow for stable or increased average annual snowfall for a while. Also, I remember storms where the dew points were so low that we lost snowfall to delayed wet bulbing. The aforementioned storms of the past could result in much greater snowfall due to the higher moisture content. Volatility at our latitude could be the culprit for instances like you have posted. I believe Feb 2018 also had a great example.

 

Latitude offers some benefits from proximity to colder air masses. It’s difficult to know whether the recent drop in snowfall is due to the early stages of a transition to a less snowy climate from background warming, a “low snow” cycle from internal variability, or both. I suspect that it is a combination and that seasonal snowfall will decline to near 20” by the mid-2030s. There will still be snowy winters. 2009-10 in Washington, DC with a warmer climate provides an example. 

[dseagull]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Well at least SST have dropped, in the middle of January they were reported to be around 43-45.  Since you've been doing this for awhile, you probably know this-- when are the lowest SST usually-- late February or early March?  If this projected mid to late month cold happens, we could get widespread mid to upper 30s SST (depends on what kind of staying power it has.)

 

 

Generally, February always has the coldest nearshore temps.  I have kept logs for many years.  They are handwritten, however.  Eventually, I'll enter them into excel.  

However, we are normally about 35-38 early February.   Some years with the PV dislodging, we have slush in the surf zone. 

 

Keep in mind, this is within 3 miles in the near coastal zone.  The back bays at least had skim ice this year, as compared to last year. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

It’s the first time the 9 year winter moving average temperature in NYC went over 38.0°.

 

One would think if it happened before it would have happened in the 1930s, when we had some of our warmest winters.  What year is that which spikes above 40 in the 1930s?  Looks like we saw a second spike in the late 1950s

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Generally, February always has the coldest nearshore temps.  I have kept logs for many years.  They are handwritten, however.  Eventually, I'll enter them into excel.  

However, we are normally about 35-38 early February.   Some years with the PV dislodging, we have slush in the surf zone. 

 

Keep in mind, this is within 3 miles in the near coastal zone.  The back bays at least had skim ice this year, as compared to last year. 

That's excellent and something I've always wondered about.  And since you keep logs you probably know this-- what was your coldest SST you've ever recorded and what month/year and did you ever record SST below freezing?  As you know seawater and especially moving seawater doesn't freeze even at 30-31.  I remember in the 2014-15 winter, in February SST of 30-31 were recorded off the eastern end of Long Island and freezing drizzle occurred on an onshore wind.

On the other end of the spectrum, what's the highest SST you've ever recorded and month/year-- I assume those would be in early August? I've infrequently seen SST in the low 80s sometimes.  The highest SST I've ever seen reported was 84 degrees (!) back in July of 1993, that was one of the hottest and longest lasting summers we've ever had. For me it was only eclipsed by Summer 2010.  Thanks!

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Latitude offers some benefits from proximity to colder air masses. It’s difficult to know whether the recent drop in snowfall is due to the early stages of a transition to a less snowy climate from background warming, a “low snow” cycle from internal variability, or both. I suspect that it is a combination and that seasonal snowfall will decline to near 20” by the mid-2030s. There will still be snowy winters. 2009-10 in Washington, DC with a warmer climate provides an example. 

It has to be both since a place like Washington DC still has sporadic winters with more snowfall than us (though obviously not as many such winters as they had in the 80s).

DCA is such a miserable place to measure snowfall too- there seems to be some inaccuracy there.

 

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Latitude offers some benefits from proximity to colder air masses. It’s difficult to know whether the recent drop in snowfall is due to the early stages of a transition to a less snowy climate from background warming, a “low snow” cycle from internal variability, or both. I suspect that it is a combination and that seasonal snowfall will decline to near 20” by the mid-2030s. There will still be snowy winters. 2009-10 in Washington, DC with a warmer climate provides an example. 

this same theory probably explains why the late 90's featured 4 years in a row of well below avg snowfall and 1949 - 1955 well below normal snowfall - IMO these cycles are normal ... just like the above normal cycles

[MJO812]

Latest tellies have the NAO trending downward and the PNA rising along with the AO crashing .

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

this same theory probably explains why the late 90's featured 4 years in a row of well below avg snowfall and 1949 - 1955 well below normal snowfall - IMO these cycles are normal ...

late 90s can be directly connected to extreme enso events like 1997-98 and 1998-99 we had both extreme el nino and extreme la nina.

early 90s can be linked to extremely high solar activity (solar peak was 1990-1991 when NYC had 22 of 24 months of above normal temperatures)

By the way we are currently at solar maximum again (though not all solar maxima are created equal.)  That is why people are so excited about the upcoming total solar eclipse in April, there were likely be extreme solar activity (pink prominences, protuberances, etc.) visible off the solar limb during totality.

 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

One would think if it happened before it would have happened in the 1930s, when we had some of our warmest winters.  What year is that which spikes above 40 in the 1930s?  Looks like we saw a second spike in the late 1950s

 

The black line is the 9 year moving average. It first peaked at 34.9° in 1933. Then there was a higher peak of 36.3° in 1958. It took until 1999 to exceed that at 36.4°. We are currently at 38.5° which is a full 2° warmer than any previous peak. 

[SACRUS]

 

40 and cloudy, some light showers, 0.10 in the bucket but drier times look likely the next 7 days.  Overall warmer as well advertised in here.

 

[dseagull]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

That's excellent and something I've always wondered about.  And since you keep logs you probably know this-- what was your coldest SST you've ever recorded and what month/year and did you ever record SST below freezing?  As you know seawater and especially moving seawater doesn't freeze even at 30-31.  I remember in the 2014-15 winter, in February SST of 30-31 were recorded off the eastern end of Long Island and freezing drizzle occurred on an onshore wind.

On the other end of the spectrum, what's the highest SST you've ever recorded and month/year-- I assume those would be in early August? I've infrequently seen SST in the low 80s sometimes.  The highest SST I've ever seen reported was 84 degrees (!) back in July of 1993, that was one of the hottest and longest lasting summers we've ever had. For me it was only eclipsed by Summer 2010.  Thanks!

 

I will retrieve my logbook when I finally get moving today.   Been fighting a bug for a few days.  

 

But, you would be correct with the 2014-2015 winter.  I had between 29 and 30 one morning, from Absecon Inlet to Manasquan Inlet for the duration of the trip.  I remember that morning well. I had to knock ice off the hull several times as it built up.   It was a still morning, so my transducer was constantly in slush.  I didn't drop any instruments to see what the stratification was like.  

Warmest was in Cape May, but I don't remember it as well. Summer SST are much more variable, due to upwelling events and proximity to inlets and rivers.  For bay water, I have exceeded 90 many times.   For the ocean within 3 miles, I can only remember achieving 85-86 a few times.  Offshore, in the Norfolk canyon, we came very near 90 when an insane eddy broke off the GS.  Marlin Heaven, no tuna.  

I should take the time to input some of my data at one point.  This would ultimately be a difficult task because my data isn't consistent, since I travel so often.  The USGS site is great for looking at logs from individual stations.  I can guide you through accessing this information, if you don't already do so.  

 

Time for a cup of coffee and off to haul the rig.  The bug going around is no joke.  Be well.  

[Great Snow 1717]

38 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

there is plenty to talk about regarding the mid month pattern change but some of your stuff now is not even scientific related

..it isn't a pattern change until it actually happens and it remains in place for at least 3 weeks..

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The black line is the 9 year moving average. It first peaked at 34.9° in 1933. Then there was a higher peak of 36.3° in 1958. It took until 1999 to exceed that at 36.4°. We are currently at 38.5° which is a full 2° warmer than any previous peak. 

Thanks for this,

Is it known what slowed the warming from 1958 to 1999? Seems like an outlier. Population and pollution were increasing at a steady rate during this period (as well as natural warming). Population has increased since, however, so have measured to reduce emissions and other pollutants. Solar, volcanic activity, other? 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks for this,

Is it known what slowed the warming from 1958 to 1999? Seems like an outlier. Population and pollution were increasing at a steady rate during this period (as well as natural warming). Population has increased since, however, so have measured to reduce emissions and other pollutants. Solar, volcanic activity, other? 

the 1990s had some of our warmest years on record though so I wouldn't say the warming slowed.... as a rolling average remember the 90s had to be very warm to reach that next peak in 1999.  The cooler period was from the 60s to the 80s.  As you'll note, we had much lower tropical activity and lower rainfall during this time period too, so this could be linked to the AMO.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

10 minutes ago, dseagull said:

I will retrieve my logbook when I finally get moving today.   Been fighting a bug for a few days.  

 

But, you would be correct with the 2014-2015 winter.  I had between 29 and 30 one morning, from Absecon Inlet to Manasquan Inlet for the duration of the trip.  I remember that morning well. I had to knock ice off the hull several times as it built up.   It was a still morning, so my transducer was constantly in slush.  I didn't drop any instruments to see what the stratification was like.  

Warmest was in Cape May, but I don't remember it as well. Summer SST are much more variable, due to upwelling events and proximity to inlets and rivers.  For bay water, I have exceeded 90 many times.   For the ocean within 3 miles, I can only remember achieving 85-86 a few times.  Offshore, in the Norfolk canyon, we came very near 90 when an insane eddy broke off the GS.  Marlin Heaven, no tuna.  

I should take the time to input some of my data at one point.  This would ultimately be a difficult task because my data isn't consistent, since I travel so often.  The USGS site is great for looking at logs from individual stations.  I can guide you through accessing this information, if you don't already do so.  

 

Time for a cup of coffee and off to haul the rig.  The bug going around is no joke.  Be well.  

wishing you all the best in your fight..

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..it isn't a pattern change until it actually happens and it remains in place for at least 3 weeks..

that's the actual difference between simulation and science.

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that's the actual difference between simulation and science.

it is very similar to retirement fund projections that project someone will become a millionaire.... someone isn't a millionaire until actually becoming a millionaire and remains above that level....

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, dseagull said:

I will retrieve my logbook when I finally get moving today.   Been fighting a bug for a few days.  

 

But, you would be correct with the 2014-2015 winter.  I had between 29 and 30 one morning, from Absecon Inlet to Manasquan Inlet for the duration of the trip.  I remember that morning well. I had to knock ice off the hull several times as it built up.   It was a still morning, so my transducer was constantly in slush.  I didn't drop any instruments to see what the stratification was like.  

Warmest was in Cape May, but I don't remember it as well. Summer SST are much more variable, due to upwelling events and proximity to inlets and rivers.  For bay water, I have exceeded 90 many times.   For the ocean within 3 miles, I can only remember achieving 85-86 a few times.  Offshore, in the Norfolk canyon, we came very near 90 when an insane eddy broke off the GS.  Marlin Heaven, no tuna.  

I should take the time to input some of my data at one point.  This would ultimately be a difficult task because my data isn't consistent, since I travel so often.  The USGS site is great for looking at logs from individual stations.  I can guide you through accessing this information, if you don't already do so.  

 

Time for a cup of coffee and off to haul the rig.  The bug going around is no joke.  Be well.  

Wow some of those high SST records are absolutely insane. I wonder how it affected oxygen levels in the water and if the fish went much lower to escape from the heat?

Thanks, you provide a valuable service, it's not easy to get SST temperatures for specific areas online.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Hey some people have to brag about the only "asset" they have don't they, even if it's not much of an asset.....

How many pattens changes have failed to materialize during the last several winters??....Here is what we do know, the northern hemisphere has seen record warmth over the last year or so..

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

How many pattens changes have failed to materialize during the last several winters??....Here is what we do know, the northern hemisphere has seen record warmth over the last year or so..

it almost seems like some sort of karmic punishment for the period from 2009-10 to 2014-15 (with the exception of 2011-12 which was awful outside of the October snowstorm.)

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

it almost seems like some sort of karmic punishment for the period from 2009-10 to 2014-15 (with the exception of 2011-12 which was awful outside of the October snowstorm.)

People who bet against warmth the last several winters have lost but they chalk it up to "bad luck".....

[EastonSN+]

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the 1990s had some of our warmest years on record though so I wouldn't say the warming slowed.... as a rolling average remember the 90s had to be very warm to reach that next peak in 1999.  The cooler period was from the 60s to the 80s.  As you'll note, we had much lower tropical activity and lower rainfall during this time period too, so this could be linked to the AMO.

 

Great point. 55 through 69 matches 2000 through 2018 in terms of snowfall. 75 through 85 were cold so that could account.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

People who bet against warmth the last several winters have lost but they chalk it up to "bad luck".....

luck or variation may have some small role to play (but not much), the way we know is that there's patterns to this, but at the same time, each pattern shows an upward climb, likely a combination of human activity, solar activity, and the earth trying to even out the imbalance between the tropics and the poles.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Great point. 55 through 69 matches 2000 through 2018 in terms of snowfall. 75 through 85 were cold so that could account.

Here's something I want to know, with this cyclical aspect of the equation, is the cycle of the exact same length each time or is there some variation? I think there has to be some variation because the number of years in each group changes somewhat with each iteration of the cycle.

So it was 15 years between 1955-1969 and 19 winters between 2000 and 2018. The period in between could be a transitional phase between the two opposite ends of the cycle.