LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: If that Omega Block actually forms, I don’t think it will be in any big rush to leave, they usually are even more stable than Rex Blocks. It may take until mid-February or thereafter to get the potential snowstorm producing pattern in, again, assuming the weeklies are definitely correct the good news is that when it does break, that's when you get the big event. in other news, it hit 80 in DC today! is 80 in DC in January the all time January record for them? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Eric Webb thinks the MJO will slow down and the great pattern will continue well into March . Hope he is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, MJO812 said: Eric Webb thinks the MJO will slow down and the great pattern will continue well into March . Hope he is right Ant, before the great pattern can "continue" it first needs to BEGIN. lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 23 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Ant, before the great pattern can "continue" it first needs to BEGIN. lol True 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-Feb. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely weeklies are also absolutely HONKING. they remind me of Feb 2010, 1978 and 1958, and 2010 has always been a very solid analog for later in the winter... 1958 was discussed as a good analog, too. that year has held up really well with the warm start, Jan blocking, and now a great Feb pattern lasting into early March I want to give things another week to simmer and allow for the favorable pattern to get inside 7-10 days on ENS, but I think we might be in for it. the winter cancel stuff earlier this week was ridiculous 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-December. MJO will progress slowly into the central Pacific and the western IO, which is highly favorable for Feb Ninos. STJ is open for business alongside an equatorward Pacific jet looks like we could actually see a pretty similar MJO progression to 2010. also made a pass through 4-6 (although weaker) in mid-late Jan before rotting in phases 7-1. hovmollers also show the MJO progressing nicely weeklies are also absolutely HONKING. they remind me of Feb 2010, 1978 and 1958, and 2010 has always been a very solid analog for later in the winter... 1958 was discussed as a good analog, too. that year has held up really well with the warm start, Jan blocking, and now a great Feb pattern lasting into early March I want to give things another week to simmer and allow for the favorable pattern to get inside 7-10 days on ENS, but I think we might be in for it. the winter cancel stuff earlier this week was ridiculous Nice writeup..... it's worth remembering that if we are going to use 2010 as an analog that although the good pattern started in mid January, the first couple of storms slid under us. There was a storm in late January which only made it up to Central NJ for any snowfall at all, and of course the Feb 6, 2010 snowmageddon which hit the south shore with 1-2 inches of snow but 50 miles south of us got 2 feet. So maybe the first couple of storms in this great pattern will miss to our south (depending on how strong the nao blocking is-- in 2010 it was historic). So if this is the case we wouldn't realize our snowfall dreams until after mid February and that pattern would only last for 3 weeks at most (which is how long it lasted in February 2010 I think?) I'm not familiar with 1957-58, how long did the good pattern last on the backend that winter (the interval between the first snowfall of the backend pattern and the last?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Nice writeup..... it's worth remembering that if we are going to use 2010 as an analog that although the good pattern started in mid January, the first couple of storms slid under us. There was a storm in late January which only made it up to Central NJ for any snowfall at all, and of course the Feb 6, 2010 snowmageddon which hit the south shore with 1-2 inches of snow but 50 miles south of us got 2 feet. So maybe the first couple of storms in this great pattern will miss to our south (depending on how strong the nao blocking is-- in 2010 it was historic). So if this is the case we wouldn't realize our snowfall dreams until after mid February and that pattern would only last for 3 weeks at most (which is how long it lasted in February 2010 I think?) I'm not familiar with 1957-58, how long did the good pattern last on the backend that winter (the interval between the first snowfall of the pattern and the last?) 1958 was more mid-Feb into early March... the timeline itself matches more than 2010 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: 1958 was more mid-Feb into early March... the timeline itself matches more than 2010 Thanks, I figured we have less of a chance of storms sliding under us than we did in 2010, because the -nao was at historic levels in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 26 Share Posted January 26 32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: seems like everything is coming together... Pacific jet is retracting and allowing for a strong Aleutian low to form, the NAM in the troposphere remains uncoupled from the stratosphere and favorable, and we should see blocking increase via wave breaking as we head into mid-December. Think you meant mid-February, correct? Nice write up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 52 minutes ago, uofmiami said: Think you meant mid-February, correct? Nice write up! LOL thanks for catching that 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 The definition of a blah, boring pattern next 2 weeks. Temps a bit above normal, a lot of cloudy, murky days, very early March like which sucks. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 27 Author Share Posted January 27 sighhh...just doesn't look so boring to me 2/2, 2/5-7 and then the Southern Stream should crank several storms mid and end of the month (after the 10th). Differs from some of the modeling suggesting a dryer than normal first two weeks of Feb. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: LOL thanks for catching that I can't help but thinking it's an interesting coincidence that it hit 80 at Newark in February 2018 and then winter came back in full force a few weeks later and then today it hit 80 at DC and that winter might come back in a few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The definition of a blah, boring pattern next 2 weeks. Temps a bit above normal, a lot of cloudy, murky days, very early March like which sucks. we'll get some sunshine next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The definition of a blah, boring pattern next 2 weeks. Temps a bit above normal, a lot of cloudy, murky days, very early March like which sucks. blah and boring? really? i wouldn’t call this boring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: blah and boring? really? i wouldn’t call this boring Is this an omega block setting up early this year-- so we're getting shortening wavelengths a month earlier than we usually do? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 58 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The definition of a blah, boring pattern next 2 weeks. Temps a bit above normal, a lot of cloudy, murky days, very early March like which sucks. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: LOL 2 weeks go out to Feb 10. There's a rain event this weekend and not much else afterwards. So I'm not wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: 2 weeks go out to Feb 10. There's a rain event this weekend and not much else afterwards. So I'm not wrong If you believe everything you see two weeks out I have some beach front property in Arizona if you’re interested. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: 2 weeks go out to Feb 10. There's a rain event this weekend and not much else afterwards. So I'm not wrong So that means it's going to continue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: So that means it's going to continue? Dry and cold through the 10th seems possible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 This might or might get this far north but not boring. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: This might or might not get this far north but not boring. WX/PT 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Euro has Support from the eps for the 2/5 threat. As of now it’s just something to keep a eye on 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro has Support from the eps for the 2/5 threat. As of now it’s just something to keep a eye on GEFS are further north then the op as well 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: This might or might get this far north but not boring. WX/PT Zzzz, pattern supports upper level lows diving into the SE and then crushed out to sea. It’s a spring time pattern 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 4 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: This might or might get this far north but not boring. WX/PT Ensembles like this timeframe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Zzzz, pattern supports upper level lows diving into the SE and then crushed out to sea. It’s a spring time pattern You can't be serious 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 Boom! It's not boring. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 27 Share Posted January 27 6 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Boom! It's not boring. WX/PT Nice El Niño rainstorm but that is pure fantasy, pattern does not support 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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