February 2024

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

No, I mean that 3.3” fell 2/15-16/1930. That left behind snowcover of 3” on 2/16. It dropped to 2” snowcover on 2/17.

lmao oh, and here I was thinking it was a two day snowstorm with temps in the single digits haha

[BucksCO_PA]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm curious, what did we have in 2017-18 before mid February and March? I know we had a snow event in mid February that year in the middle of a mild pattern, but didn't we also have a big storm in January?  For whatever reason, it seems that getting a big storm earlier in the season increases the likelihood of getting another one later in the season even if there is a long stretch of mild weather in between-- 1966-67 is another case in point (and that was in a -PNA winter too.)

 

One early season trend down this way is a 6" or > event before JAN is virtually a lock for another 6" or > storm later in the season, sometimes 2 & maybe even 3. Only blemish for Philly back to the 1950's is the DEC 1990 snowstorm & even that was a close miss with a 5" event the following JAN.

 

[Dark Star]

21 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

I disagree. The people with the biggest mouths and the deepest pockets, decide what we should “think”.

Now the push is for batteries and lithium. These mining operations are destroying the landscape in other countries but that’s ok because it’s not for oil. Forrest’s being cut down to make room for solar panels and windmills which kill thousands of birds and displace wildlife But that’s ok because it’s for “renewable” energy.


.

I guarantee if this were the 1980s, a moratorium would have been put on building more wind farms.  Activists would have been climbing them, trying to shut them down to save the birds, including the eagles.  If you have to laugh, please first look up the birds that are being killed by these things.

[Dark Star]

9 hours ago, BxEngine said:

Next one who asks for a moderator in here without reporting any offending posts has to venmo me the equivalent of a 15 hour overtime tour at my work, since apparently this must be our full time job here? Thanks in advance. 

Sorry bout that.  I just thought this wasn't the thread to keep the old debate going.  However, I am as immature as the next person, and I will easily get drawn into this with my nonsensical input.

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I guarantee if this were the 1980s, a moratorium would have been put on building more wind farms.  Activists would have been climbing them, trying to shut them down to save the birds, including the eagles.  If you have to laugh, please first look up the birds that are being killed by these things.

But these wind farms are now computerized and they will shut down when a bird approaches.

The planes that hit birds are far worse as are the light pollution of buildings that kill birds, you'll see thousands of dead birds at the bottom of these buildings, not to mention how bad light pollution is for our health.

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, BucksCO_PA said:

One early season trend down this way is a 6" or > event before JAN is virtually a lock for another 6" or > storm later in the season, sometimes 2 & maybe even 3. Only blemish for Philly back to the 1950's is the DEC 1990 snowstorm & even that was a close miss with a 5" event the following JAN.

 

Thanks, when December produces no measurable snowfall, it's a strong indicator of a really low snowfall winter.

[coastalplainsnowman]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But these wind farms are now computerized and they will shut down when a bird approaches.

 

I think they should positively charge the fan blades, and then outfit the birds with positively charged vests and helmets, causing the birds to be repelled away to safety.

[JustinRP37]

Birds running into glass each year far outpaces birds killed by wind turbines. And the numbers are not even close: https://epe.lac-bac.gc.ca/100/201/300/avian_conservation_ecology-ef/v01n01-v16n02/www.ace-eco.org/vol8/iss2/art6/ACE-ECO-2013-568.pdf

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320713003522

While we can certainly improve in both regards but window collisions kill an estimated 25 million birds in Canada alone. The USA sees higher estimates. Wind turbines kill around a quarter million birds. 

Also the mining for EVs batteries will occur regardless of EV adoption as lithium battery use increases.The difference is batteries can be recycled and battery health nearly replaced back to 100% with minimal waste.  The true science of sustainability is fascinating once you look at the science and not the “media” reports. 

[donsutherland1]

Showers and possibly a period of light rain is likely tonight. Tomorrow through the weekend should feature dry and mild readings before it turns briefly cooler early next week.

The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather.

Seasonal snowfall in New York City stood at 2.3" at the close of January. There were 19 prior winters that saw less than 3" of snow through January 31st. The mean snowfall for the remainder of the snow season for those winters was 11.4". The median snowfall was 10.4". The highest snowfall was 38.9" in 1914 with a blizzard on March 1-2 bringing 14.5" of snow. The historic figures for all winters are 14.6" and 11.8" respectively.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -29.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.529 today.

On January 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.230 (RMM). The January 29-adjusted amplitude was 2.171 (RMM).

 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Birds running into glass each year far outpaces birds killed by wind turbines. And the numbers are not even close: https://epe.lac-bac.gc.ca/100/201/300/avian_conservation_ecology-ef/v01n01-v16n02/www.ace-eco.org/vol8/iss2/art6/ACE-ECO-2013-568.pdf

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320713003522

While we can certainly improve in both regards but window collisions kill an estimated 25 million birds in Canada alone. The USA sees higher estimates. Wind turbines kill around a quarter million birds. 

Also the mining for EVs batteries will occur regardless of EV adoption as lithium battery use increases.The difference is batteries can be recycled and battery health nearly replaced back to 100% with minimal waste.  The true science of sustainability is fascinating once you look at the science and not the “media” reports. 

The real issue with lithium batteries is them being highly flammable and what happens in flooding (but you shouldn't be driving in these conditions anyway.)  That's why solid state batteries are much better as well as green hydrogen when it becomes available.

Skyscrapers and planes are much worse for birds and we can also help them by reducing the godawful light pollution (which is a health issue for us too.)

 

[bluewave]

All it took was one of the strongest omega blocks on record for this time of year to finally dry things out in early February.

 

 

[NEG NAO]

36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Showers and possibly a period of light rain is likely tonight. Tomorrow through the weekend should feature dry and mild readings before it turns briefly cooler early next week.

The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather.

Seasonal snowfall in New York City stood at 2.3" at the close of January. There were 19 prior winters that saw less than 3" of snow through January 31st. The mean snowfall for the remainder of the snow season for those winters was 11.4". The median snowfall was 10.4". The highest snowfall was 38.9" in 1914 with a blizzard on March 1-2 bringing 14.5" of snow. The historic figures for all winters are 14.6" and 11.8" respectively.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -29.40 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.529 today.

On January 30 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.230 (RMM). The January 29-adjusted amplitude was 2.171 (RMM).

 

I don't consider low temps near 30 and high temps forecasted next week in the low to mid 40's as "mild" still need a winter coat.

[NorthShoreWx]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it's an interesting that even just 0.8" of snow can help drop temps

 

 

It was the other way around.  The snow showers were with the arctic front on 2/16/73.  They were more organized on LI where most spots picked up 2 or 3 inches.

[NorthShoreWx]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Sorry bout that.  I just thought this wasn't the thread to keep the old debate going.  However, I am as immature as the next person, and I will easily get drawn into this with my nonsensical input.

bxengine's venmo is [email protected]

[MANDA]

51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

All it took was one of the strongest omega blocks on record for this time of year to finally dry things out in early February.

 

 

That is one blocked up upper air pattern.  Going to take a while to get the train moving again.  Going to be a real snoozer next 10-14 days, as per guidance.  Then we'll see what happens.  I'm pretty convinced of a period of BN temps from 2/15 - 2/20 or thereabouts.  How much beyond that?  Does the pattern produce for meaningful snow, 6"+ forum wide?  It could but it doesn't have to.  Patterns like the one that is forecast for mid / late month have failed to produce more so than not last year and this.  At least something to watch with interest over the next two weeks to see how it develops.  In the meantime it will give the ground a chance to dry out around here.

 

Be thankful the block has setup the way it did.  Any further east we would really warm up, as it is we'll be in a NW flow of at least cool / chilly air with cold nights and daytime temperatures not truly torching.  Any further west would have kept us in a cloudy, raw and damp pattern.

[donsutherland1]

43 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't consider low temps near 30 and high temps forecasted next week in the low to mid 40's as "mild" still need a winter coat.

Most days will be mild for the season. With the exception of 1 or 2 days, the rest of next week should see above normal temperatures. There may also be 1-2 days that see readings reach the 50s.

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't consider low temps near 30 and high temps forecasted next week in the low to mid 40's as "mild" still need a winter coat.

But it is quite mild for the first week of February. And it is endlessly long

[wdrag]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

Don and others,

 I counted 16 strong El Niño winters back to 1877-8. Of those, 5 (31%) had their coldest of the winter at NYC 2/16-24:

1. 1889: lows of 5 on 2/23 and 3 on 2/24 vs coldest of 9 earlier (2/20-6 coldest week of winter at 24)

2. 1903: low of 4 on 2/19 vs coldest of 8 earlier (2/16-22 coldest week of winter at 21)

3. 1930: low of 7 on 2/16 and 2/17 vs coldest of 10 earlier

4. 1958: low of 6 on 2/17 and 3 on 2/18 vs coldest of 12 earlier (2/13-19 coldest week of winter at 17)

5. 1973: low of 7 on 2/17 vs coldest of 8 earlier

 With the coldest so far this winter being only down to 17 and with the colder pattern being predicted in the longer range, I’d think there’d be a good shot at getting the coldest of the winter 2/16-24. I realize getting below 10 will of course be a significant challenge considering the warmer climate. But with it getting down to 3 on 2/18/1958, I’d think a 9 in 2024 wouldn’t be a shocker.

 The coldest week so far this winter is 25.4 (1/15-21). A colder week later this month wouldn’t be easy but I don’t think it would be too surprising.

 

helps if we have snow cover for the colder period... presume all saw the new weeklies issued today (is the hope going to verify in our favor later Feb-early March?)

[donsutherland1]

31 minutes ago, wdrag said:

helps if we have snow cover for the colder period... presume all saw the new weeklies issued today (is the hope going to verify in our favor later Feb-early March?)

Yes. I am encouraged that they are holding steady, if not continuing to improve.

[uofmiami]

 

[Dark Star]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

bxengine's venmo is [email protected]

I don't have Venmo, or any other electronic cash apps.  I can pay by check or if you are ever in Jersey, I can pay cash.  

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

But these wind farms are now computerized and they will shut down when a bird approaches.

The planes that hit birds are far worse as are the light pollution of buildings that kill birds, you'll see thousands of dead birds at the bottom of these buildings, not to mention how bad light pollution is for our health.

 

[Dark Star]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Birds running into glass each year far outpaces birds killed by wind turbines. And the numbers are not even close: https://epe.lac-bac.gc.ca/100/201/300/avian_conservation_ecology-ef/v01n01-v16n02/www.ace-eco.org/vol8/iss2/art6/ACE-ECO-2013-568.pdf

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320713003522

While we can certainly improve in both regards but window collisions kill an estimated 25 million birds in Canada alone. The USA sees higher estimates. Wind turbines kill around a quarter million birds. 

Also the mining for EVs batteries will occur regardless of EV adoption as lithium battery use increases.The difference is batteries can be recycled and battery health nearly replaced back to 100% with minimal waste.  The true science of sustainability is fascinating once you look at the science and not the “media” reports. 

Except activists aren't necessarily logical, take for instance arsonists on the left coast.  

[etudiant]

8 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Except activists aren't necessarily logical, take for instance arsonists on the left coast.  

In defense of the activists, the issue with wind turbines is that they very effectively kill larger raptors, who are oblivious to turbine blades while soaring.

Those birds are few and slower breeders than the little passerines that get killed smashing into buildings.

Separately, turbines also do a number on bats, which are almost equally important ecologically as birds, but happily not vulnerable to buildings.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, etudiant said:

In defense of the activists, the issue with wind turbines is that they very effectively kill larger raptors, who are oblivious to turbine blades while soaring.

Those birds are few and slower breeders than the little passerines that get killed smashing into buildings.

Separately, turbines also do a number on bats, which are almost equally important ecologically as birds, but happily not vulnerable to buildings.

all of this can be neutralized by computer controlled turbines that use motion detection to stop a specific fan from turning when a bird or bat approaches.

[Krs4Lfe]

Quiet on here tonight. Can’t say I’m surprised given the quiet weather pattern that has shown up. Still remarkable at how inactive this winter has been for the whole nation. December was historically inactive, January had a snow blitz for the first 3 weeks, and then everything shut off for the past week. Even The Weather Channel’s winter storm tracker has only had 10 storms since November! February looks to remain almost historically warm and inactive over the next 10 days, outside of Rockies and points to the west coast. And even then, most places outside very high elevations won’t be cold enough for snow. 

[STORMANLI]

-RA began 104am with an intermittent ice pellet.

40°

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, uofmiami said:

 

T minus 13 days and we’ll know if all the bombastic hype about mid-late February is real. 2/15 is the start of put up or shut up time, do or die….

[snowman19]

Here’s Jim Cantore’s take on mid-late February. Can’t accuse him of being warm biased. He’s one of the biggest cold and snow weenie mets there is:

[Pellice]

9 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Except activists aren't necessarily logical, take for instance arsonists on the left coast.  

It's not just activists vs. "rational people."  Many scientists and organizations are working hard to try to mitigate and meld new technologies to lessen and perhaps improve their effects on the life of this planet.  For example, the Nature Conservancy and American Bird Conservancy have developed maps for siting wind turbines where they will least effect the migratory corridors of birds and other species.  A widening "lights out" campaign is attempting to get bright urban areas to turn down lights on nights of predicted high  bird migration.   New glass formulations can reduce collisions.

All of these cost extra money. Will it be spent