donsutherland1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 14 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Wild, so with less than 6" of snow through February 15, there were no outcomes that even brought us to average snowfall? Yes, that's correct. Nothing is guaranteed, but the chances of getting to normal would be remote. Things are even worse if we get to the end of February with little or no additional snowfall: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 So we need a 1902 repeat to get close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 41 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I have to say if you are looking for snow, the Catskills were amazing yesterday. Belleayre had plenty of natural snow and of course deep snow gun snow. Overall it was a beautiful day yesterday with light snow off and on. So far I have had three really amazing ski days this past January and one horrendous day. Belleayre! They have had a great season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: That it will turn colder is likely. Some of the other outcomes depend on a range of factors (cross-polar flow, shortwaves, blocking, synoptic pattern/details, etc.), leading to greater uncertainty. Thus, they were listed as key uncertainties. Best guess: A 2-3 week period with generally colder than normal temperatures (probably running into the first week in March). No single digits in Central Park, but one or more days with lows in the teens. Several light snow events with perhaps a moderate event (3"-4"), which would wind up being this season's biggest event. No big events of 6" or more. All of this will culminate in a winter that will wind up being warmer than normal (likely including February's having a warm anomaly, in large part, due to the very warm first 10-14 days) and much below normal seasonal snowfall by the conclusion of the snow season. This guess is based on the combination of the guidance and statistical outcomes. It should be noted that 46-day maps or 46-day charts have very little skill overall in terms of specifics. Indeed, if they did, the NYC area wouldn't be looking at the distinct possibility of seeing an unprecedented second consecutive season with less than 10" snowfall. I think we'll avoid that outcome, but should February wind up less snowy than I'm thinking, then my thinking on that matter will likely be wrong. I think most would be very happy with several 2-4" events, if we could get one every week for three weeks, that wouldn't be bad at all and some consistent snowcover over those 3 weeks. By the way, Don, what made them choose 46 days for their maps and charts? That seems like such a strange number to pick. It doesn't match any given number of weeks. I would have expected 6 weeks (42 days). edit-- is it because this is a leap month and you're doing the last 15 days of February and all 31 days of March? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think most would be very happy with several 2-4" events, if we could get one every week for three weeks, that wouldn't be bad at all and some consistent snowcover over those 3 weeks. By the way, Don, what made them choose 46 days for their maps and charts? That seems like such a strange number to pick. It doesn't match any given number of weeks. I would have expected 6 weeks (42 days). edit-- is it because this is a leap month and you're doing the last 15 days of February and all 31 days of March? I'm not sure how the ECMWF arrived at 46 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 On 1/29/2024 at 2:10 PM, qg_omega said: Omega block looks to roll east 2nd week of February while the weekend cold shot trends milder. One of the quietest first two weeks of February I’ve seen modeled. Makes sense we would regress a bit from the epic wet pattern of the past many months Just pure nothingness next two weeks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 32 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Just pure nothingness next two weeks It’s just wait and see what happens after 2/15 at this point. The ensembles and weeklies are either going to verify or they’re not….. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 18 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Just pure nothingness next two weeks Maybe longer then that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Yeah it looks good on multiple fronts. We typically do better when we have some SE ridging. This looks like a scenario where DC, Baltimore and possibly Philly have above average snowfall. Especially if the GEFS is right. EPS is stronger in phase 8, hence the difference in the maps. The GFS/GEFS have hinted that there may be more SE ridging now 2/10-2/15 than initially shown a few days ago, if that happens its possible something could go occur there 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS/GEFS have hinted that there may be more SE ridging now 2/10-2/15 than initially shown a few days ago, if that happens its possible something could go occur there problem in that period is not enough cold air in place yet - need that strong HP in southeast Canada........... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 39 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s just wait and see what happens after 2/15 at this point. The ensembles and weeklies are either going to verify or they’re not….. 2 weeks of sunshine isn't a bad thing at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2 weeks of sunshine isn't a bad thing at all. doubt very much we will have 2 weeks of sunshine everyday and temps will stay mainly below 50 for highs ...........with some days closer to 40 and any clear nights radiational cooling into the 20's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 45 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s just wait and see what happens after 2/15 at this point. The ensembles and weeklies are either going to verify or they’re not….. I bet everything I own that this statement turns out to be true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 More rain tomorrow? What happened to drying out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: More rain tomorrow? What happened to drying out? What happened to today's partly sunny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, RedSky said: What happened to today's partly sunny? I saw the sun for 10 minutes so I guess that qualifies as partly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 5 minutes ago, RedSky said: What happened to today's partly sunny? Anything before Saturday would have been bonus sunshine anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 14 minutes ago, Allsnow said: More rain tomorrow? What happened to drying out? That starts Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Near Mid-February Pattern Change: Even as generally warmer than normal weather will continue into at least the second week of this month, the idea that there will be a transition toward a sustained colder pattern beginning late in the second week of the month as mid-month approaches +/- a few days remains largely on track. Confidence in the idea is above average despite lower model/ensemble skill at that forecasting range for several reasons: Consistent signal on the ECMWF weeklies Outcomes consistent with AO-/PNA+ patterns during February 10-20 Historic strong El Niño climatology for February that favors colder weather before and around mid-month (existence of a cold period) ECMWF Weekly Forecast (February 12-19, 2024): AO-/PNA+ Outcomes: Sample sizes: AO-/PNA+: 119 days, All Other Cases: 255 days The timing would be somewhat later than is typical for strong El Niño winters. Such winters typically see their coldest February temperatures just before mid-month. Late in the month, readings warm up. If historic climatology provides some insight into the upcoming pattern evolution, the colder pattern could persist into the first week of March given the timing of its onset. Snowfall: Although snowfall details remain uncertain given the variables involved, should snowfall remain lower or much lower than normal as the month advances, the probability of much below normal seasonal snowfall for Winter 2023-2024 as a whole would increase. Below to much below normal seasonal snowfall from February 1-April 30 is more likely than not given historic experience with winters that have featured the kind of warmth and lack of snowfall seen through January 31st. Key Uncertainties: Whether there would be severe cold with low temperatures falling to the single digits on one or more days. Frequency and amount of snowfall. Whether there would be any significant (6" or above) snowstorms. Duration and magnitude of the cold period. Don and others, I counted 16 strong El Niño winters back to 1877-8. Of those, 5 (31%) had their coldest of the winter at NYC 2/16-24: 1. 1889: lows of 5 on 2/23 and 3 on 2/24 vs coldest of 9 earlier (2/20-6 coldest week of winter at 24) 2. 1903: low of 4 on 2/19 vs coldest of 8 earlier (2/16-22 coldest week of winter at 21) 3. 1930: low of 7 on 2/16 and 2/17 vs coldest of 10 earlier 4. 1958: low of 6 on 2/17 and 3 on 2/18 vs coldest of 12 earlier (2/13-19 coldest week of winter at 17) 5. 1973: low of 7 on 2/17 vs coldest of 8 earlier With the coldest so far this winter being only down to 17 and with the colder pattern being predicted in the longer range, I’d think there’d be a good shot at getting the coldest of the winter 2/16-24. I realize getting below 10 will of course be a significant challenge considering the warmer climate. But with it getting down to 3 on 2/18/1958, I’d think a 9 in 2024 wouldn’t be a shocker. The coldest week so far this winter is 25.4 (1/15-21). A colder week later this month wouldn’t be easy but I don’t think it would be too surprising. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Don and others, I counted 16 strong El Niño winters back to 1877-8. Of those, 5 (31%) had their coldest of the winter at NYC 2/16-24: 1. 1889: lows of 5 on 2/23 and 3 on 2/24 vs coldest of 9 earlier (2/20-6 coldest week of winter at 24) 2. 1903: low of 4 on 2/19 vs coldest of 8 earlier (2/16-22 coldest week of winter at 21) 3. 1930: low of 7 on 2/16 and 2/17 vs coldest of 10 earlier 4. 1958: low of 6 on 2/17 and 3 on 2/18 vs coldest of 12 earlier (2/13-19 coldest week of winter at 17) 5. 1973: low of 7 on 2/17 vs coldest of 8 earlier With the coldest so far this winter being only down to 17 and with the colder pattern being predicted in the longer range, I’d think there’d be a good shot at getting the coldest of the winter 2/16-24. I realize getting below 10 will of course be a significant challenge considering the warmer climate. But with it getting down to 3 on 2/18/1958, I’d think a 9 in 2024 wouldn’t be a shocker. The coldest week so far this winter is 25.4 (1/15-21). A colder week later this month wouldn’t be easy but I don’t think it would be too surprising. Hell, a single digit low at that time would be less shocking than the -1 we had on Valentine's morning in 2016, especially after how warm the previous December was. But were those single digit lows you mentioned above-- specifically in 1958-- after snowstorms? 1957-58 is an analog for this winter, but so is 1972-73..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hell, a single digit low at that time would be less shocking than the -1 we had on Valentine's morning in 2016, especially after how warm the previous December was. But were those single digit lows you mentioned above-- specifically in 1958-- after snowstorms? 1957-58 is an analog for this winter, but so is 1972-73..... 1957 -58 is not a good analog for this winter - 72 -73 is much closer monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf (weather.gov) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hell, a single digit low at that time would be less shocking than the -1 we had on Valentine's morning in 2016, especially after how warm the previous December was. But were those single digit lows you mentioned above-- specifically in 1958-- after snowstorms? 1957-58 is an analog for this winter, but so is 1972-73..... 1. Yes, the 6/3 of 2/17-18/1958 were over a thick fresh snowcover of 7-8”. 2. The 2/17/1973 low of 7 was just after 0.8” fell. 3. The 2/18-19/1903 lows of 8 and 4 were just after 9.8” of snow fell. 4. The 2/16-17/1930 lows of 7 were over a fresh snowcover of 3”/2”. 5. But the 2/23-24/1889 lows of 5 and 3 were over no snowcover. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1. Yes, the 6/3 of 2/17-18/1958 were over a thick fresh snowcover of 7-8”. 2. The 2/17/1973 low of 7 was just after 0.8” fell. 3. The 2/18-19/1903 lows of 8 and 4 were just after 9.8” of snow fell. 4. The 2/16-17/1930 lows of 7 were over a fresh snowcover of 3”/2”. 5. But the 2/23-24/1889 lows of 5 and 3 were over no snowcover. it's an interesting that even just 0.8" of snow can help drop temps Larry I think number 4 should be 3.2"? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 27 minutes ago, GaWx said: Don and others, I counted 16 strong El Niño winters back to 1877-8. Of those, 5 (31%) had their coldest of the winter at NYC 2/16-24: 1. 1889: lows of 5 on 2/23 and 3 on 2/24 vs coldest of 9 earlier (2/20-6 coldest week of winter at 24) 2. 1903: low of 4 on 2/19 vs coldest of 8 earlier (2/16-22 coldest week of winter at 21) 3. 1930: low of 7 on 2/16 and 2/17 vs coldest of 10 earlier 4. 1958: low of 6 on 2/17 and 3 on 2/18 vs coldest of 12 earlier (2/13-19 coldest week of winter at 17) 5. 1973: low of 7 on 2/17 vs coldest of 8 earlier With the coldest so far this winter being only down to 17 and with the colder pattern being predicted in the longer range, I’d think there’d be a good shot at getting the coldest of the winter 2/16-24. I realize getting below 10 will of course be a significant challenge considering the warmer climate. But with it getting down to 3 on 2/18/1958, I’d think a 9 in 2024 wouldn’t be a shocker. The coldest week so far this winter is 25.4 (1/15-21). A colder week later this month wouldn’t be easy but I don’t think it would be too surprising. I also used statistics beyond El Niño winters to broaden the sample for some of the variables where sample sizes were very low. For single-digits, I checked for single-digit lows from 2/15 or later since 1990. Just 4/24 (17%) of cases saw one such day. Placing weight on the larger frequency of such days (<20% frequency), my guess was that such an outcome is unlikely. It's not zero, but it's sufficiently low for me to argue that it probably won't happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I also used statistics beyond El Niño winters to broaden the sample for some of the variables where sample sizes were very low. For single-digits, I checked for single-digit lows from 2/15 or later since 1990. Just 4/24 (17%) of cases saw one such day. Placing weight on the larger frequency of such days (<20% frequency), my guess was that such an outcome is unlikely. It's not zero, but it's sufficiently low for me to argue that it probably won't happen. The latest single degree low I can remember happened on 2/28/15, we missed a single digit low in March by only one day. Is this the latest single degree low we've had in at least 30 years, Don? When was the last time we had a single degree low in March? That was such an unusually cold back half of winter too. I bet 1966-67 holds the record for our latest single degree low (and latest 0 temp for Long Island, which happened in March.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it's an interesting that even just 0.8" of snow can help drop temps Larry I think number 4 should be 3.2"? No, I meant 3” on the first day that had a 7 and 2” on the 2nd day of a 7. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, GaWx said: No, I meant 3” on the first day that had a 7 and 2” on the 2nd day of a 7. wow what an interestingly cold 2 day snowstorm! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Just now, LibertyBell said: wow what an interestingly cold 2 day snowstorm! No, I mean that 3.3” fell 2/15-16/1930. That left behind snowcover of 3” on 2/16. It dropped to 2” snowcover on 2/17. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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