February 2024

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

It’s true until it changes. So that’s not truth, that’s just groupthink. Sorry.
So many instances from the past demonstrating what was taught as truth is now revealed as “well, we got it wrong”. Science is a way of looking at things but it’s not infallible and I have seen too many times where $ affects the outcome.


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I wish more people thought about those poor defenseless fossil fuel companies. 

[wishcast_hater]

The laws of physics aren’t influenced by money.
Also, you are nowhere close to being equipped or knowledgeable enough to be the arbiter of what is or isn’t groupthink with respect to the science of global warming. You don’t even appear to comprehend the difference between natural climate variation and human warming as a consequence of CO2 pollution. You think they’re somehow conflated as if one disproves the other. 

That’s just basic level misinformation and lack of comprehension. To the level it’s not even worth having a discussion with you. 
Honestly it’s growing increasingly frustrating having these threads clogged by takes that are astonishingly misguided and ignorant, so forgive my tone. The reason I get so irked over it is because in my experience people with your positions and temperament have no interest in learning or in the acquisition of knowledge to support a better argument. You’re looking to spread an agenda based on a preconceived notion. That, if anything, has no place within the realm of scientific discussion. 

So the science is settled then. And while I don’t appreciate your tone it is indicative of those in your community who broadly paint people with my viewpoint in a negative light as being naïve or just plain stupid. While majority consensus doesn’t make something true I do take comfort in knowing that there are many scientists who disagree with your premise.

You believe that money doesn’t influence outcomes, that is naïve, in the 60’s cigarette companies paid doctors to say it’s ok for pregnant women to smoke. I really don’t know why I bother engaging in these conversations as they never produce any fruit. You believe In your religion and I will believe in mine. And one more thing, I won’t be bullied by the likes of you or anyone anywhere.

And you want me to believe that 0.04% of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere is the engine that’s driving “global warming” is absurd.


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[donsutherland1]

This afternoon, Boise has reached 65° and International Falls has reached 50°, both setting January record high temperatures. Some of this warmer air will reach the East leading to a mild start to February. No Arctic shots appear likely through the first week of the coming month, and likely longer. However, it continues to look cooler toward mid-February, which would also be consistent with strong El Niño climatology.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Big Bang and Relativity will likely require modification when Quantum Gravity is worked out (Big Bang will likely be modified into Big Bounce for example and Quantum Gravity will also do away with singularities, which is a sign that a theory has reached its limit figuratively and literally lol), but modification maintains most of the original theory and adds necessary extensions to it.

Yes, modification and refinement are likely. It's disappointing how painfully slow progress has been on development of a theory of quantum gravity, but the challenge is a very difficult one. Hopefully, advancing AI will be able to assist in that effort in the not too distant future.

[winterwx21]

4 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

Well I'm no big fan of pesticides, but we would have some massive crop failures without them. But you don't have to use chemical pesticides; there are alternatives. Have been for years. Could they be used on an industrial scale? My daughter, who is an entomologist, says it depends. Cockroaches were ubiquitous in NYC until Combat came out. They never developed resistance to it. So what are they doing now? Developing an aversion to sweet tastes....roaches are coming back.....

Yeah I've used organic pest control in my vegetable garden for many years. Works very well. 

As far as the weather, I'm glad to see there's more and more agreement on a big pattern change for mid to late February. Hopefully it will work out, but it's long range. Obviously we've seen many good looking long range patterns fall apart or get pushed out. This is too far out there for me to get excited. If it still looks good a week from now, then I'll start to get excited. Right now you can look at Euro all the way out to day 10 and it's still ugly for our area, so we have quite a ways to go. At least we have some hope for late winter though. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, modification and refinement are likely. It's disappointing how painfully slow progress has been on development of a theory of quantum gravity, but the challenge is a very difficult one. Hopefully, advancing AI will be able to assist in that effort in the not too distant future.

I think it will be a combination of AI and quantum computing.  There is a poetic symmetry with having quantum computers handle these problems, because the universe is in a very real sense a cosmic quantum computer.  Therefore what better to understand such a system than a microcosmic version of the same thing?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah I've used organic pest control in my vegetable garden for many years. Works very well. 

As far as the weather, I'm glad to see there's more and more agreement on a big pattern change for mid to late February. Hopefully it will work out, but it's long range. Obviously we've seen many good looking long range patterns fall apart or get pushed out. This is too far out there for me to get excited. If it still looks good a week from now, then I'll start to get excited. Right now you can look at Euro all the way out to day 10 and it's still ugly for our area, so we have quite a ways to go. At least we have some hope for late winter though. 

Yes, in my experience, it's always the best policy to work with nature rather than to attempt to work "against" it.  After all, we're a part of nature and whatever we do it to it, we also do to ourselves.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

So the science is settled then. And while I don’t appreciate your tone it is indicative of those in your community who broadly paint people with my viewpoint in a negative light as being naïve or just plain stupid. While majority consensus doesn’t make something true I do take comfort in knowing that there are many scientists who disagree with your premise.

You believe that money doesn’t influence outcomes, that is naïve, in the 60’s cigarette companies paid doctors to say it’s ok for pregnant women to smoke. I really don’t know why I bother engaging in these conversations as they never produce any fruit. You believe In your religion and I will believe in mine. And one more thing, I won’t be bullied by the likes of you or anyone anywhere.

And you want me to believe that 0.04% of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere is the engine that’s driving “global warming” is absurd.


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While what you're saying does happen and has continued to happen it's not a problem of science but of human greed.  We see this in how the sugar industry sought to suppress research showing that increased sugar consumption leads to diabetes-- and they continue to do so with HFCS.  There's the pesticide issue I've already mentioned with Sygenta and Bayer and Dow with them strongarming the EPA; our regulatory agencies are captured.  And DuPont with PFOA/PFAS doing the same thing.  And then there's the infamous case of Merck and Vioxx, of them attempting to cover up the thousands of deaths caused by this dreadful drug and blacklisting doctors who wouldn't prescribe it.  So, yes money does corrupt humans, but it doesn't corrupt science, which exists independently of any and all humans. 

But by the same token, you're making the case in the wrong direction, the fact is, it's the fossil fuel companies who have been covering up climate change research for decades.  The scientists you're talking about who were taking money to cover up the truth were scientists who worked for the fossil fuel companies.  Most of the time it's the corporation paid scientists whose results must be questioned, not the independent ones who do not get paid for their analyses.

 

[Dark Star]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

While what you're saying does happen and has continued to happen it's not a problem of science but of human greed.  We see this in how the sugar industry sought to suppress research showing that increased sugar consumption leads to diabetes-- and they continue to do so with HFCS.  There's the pesticide issue I've already mentioned with Sygenta and Bayer and Dow with them strongarming the EPA; our regulatory agencies are captured.  And DuPont with PFOA/PFAS doing the same thing.  And then there's the infamous case of Merck and Vioxx, of them attempting to cover up the thousands of deaths caused by this dreadful drug and blacklisting doctors who wouldn't prescribe it.  So, yes money does corrupt humans, but it doesn't corrupt science, which exists independently of any and all humans. 

But by the same token, you're making the case in the wrong direction, the fact is, it's the fossil fuel companies who have been covering up climate change research for decades.  The scientists you're talking about who were taking money to cover up the truth were scientists who worked for the fossil fuel companies.  Most of the time it's the corporation paid scientists whose results must be questioned, not the independent ones who do not get paid for their analyses.

 

I see lies and ignorance on both sides.  Moderator, please...

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Dark Star said:

I see lies and ignorance on both sides.  Moderator, please...

Science sorts things out as usual, independent of whatever people "think"

 

[wishcast_hater]

Science sorts things out as usual, independent of whatever people "think"
 

I disagree. The people with the biggest mouths and the deepest pockets, decide what we should “think”.

Now the push is for batteries and lithium. These mining operations are destroying the landscape in other countries but that’s ok because it’s not for oil. Forrest’s being cut down to make room for solar panels and windmills which kill thousands of birds and displace wildlife But that’s ok because it’s for “renewable” energy.


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[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

I disagree. The people with the biggest mouths and the deepest pockets, decide what we should “think”.

Now the push is for batteries and lithium. These mining operations are destroying the landscape in other countries but that’s ok because it’s not for oil. Forrest’s being cut down to make room for solar panels and windmills which kill thousands of birds and displace wildlife But that’s ok because it’s for “renewable” energy.


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Well, hopefully technological advances will fix that issue.  I'm not a fan of lithium batteries either, we have issues with intense fires here in New York with unregulated lithium batteries used in e-bikes.  We're in the process of developing solid state batteries and green hydrogen which will hopefully replace lithium.  Car manufacturers actually have a roadmap to start using solid state batteries in their vehicles by 2026.

By the way lithium isn't just  a problem for evs, it's also a major issue for laptop computers, cellphones and other electronic devices.

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

It’s true until it changes. So that’s not truth, that’s just groupthink. Sorry.
So many instances from the past demonstrating what was taught as truth is now revealed as “well, we got it wrong”. Science is a way of looking at things but it’s not infallible and I have seen too many times where $ affects the outcome.


.

Not when the data is overwhelming. 

[TheClimateChanger]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This afternoon, Boise has reached 65° and International Falls has reached 50°, both setting January record high temperatures. Some of this warmer air will reach the East leading to a mild start to February. No Arctic shots appear likely through the first week of the coming month, and likely longer. However, it continues to look cooler toward mid-February, which would also be consistent with strong El Niño climatology.

Wow, that’s pretty crazy. I checked this morning and the forecast for INL was 44 or 45. Looks it got several degrees warmer than expected. MSP missed its monthly record by 1F, although it did shatter the daily record by 9F.

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, that’s pretty crazy. I checked this morning and the forecast for INL was 44 or 45. Looks it got several degrees warmer than expected. MSP missed its monthly record by 1F, although it did shatter the daily record by 9F.

Geez, just checked the climo report and it actually made it all the way to 53F, beating the monthly record by 4F.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Wow, that’s pretty crazy. I checked this morning and the forecast for INL was 44 or 45. Looks it got several degrees warmer than expected. MSP missed its monthly record by 1F, although it did shatter the daily record by 9F.

The final numbers were Boise: 66 and International Falls: 53.

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think it will be a combination of AI and quantum computing.  There is a poetic symmetry with having quantum computers handle these problems, because the universe is in a very real sense a cosmic quantum computer.  Therefore what better to understand such a system than a microcosmic version of the same thing?

 

Quantum computing should dramatically expand the kind of problems that can be addressed by computers.

[Rjay]

Mostly civil debate even if way off topic.  I'll allow it.  The weather is boring af right now.  

[ForestHillWx]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

Not when the data is overwhelming. 

It is if the data is not reliable at the out set of the theory formulation; garbage in, garbage out was what I was taught. 

Not stating the specific climate data discussed is “garbage”, however I think even NOAA has recognized certain data sites are potentially susceptible to bias in either direction.  When dealing with half degree to degree changes when compared to recorded historical data, I think all data needs to be raw, not adjusted/smoothed out.
 

I know this statement will get considerable push back…Carry on. 

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

It is if the data is not reliable at the out set of the theory formulation; garbage in, garbage out was what I was taught. 

Not stating the specific climate data discussed is “garbage”, however I think even NOAA has recognized certain data sites are potentially susceptible to bias in either direction.  When dealing with half degree to degree changes when compared to recorded historical data, I think all data needs to be raw, not adjusted/smoothed out.
 

I know this statement will get considerable push back…Carry on. 

Do you disagree that the earth is warming?

[BoulderWX]

Wtf did I just scroll through :| 

[ForestHillWx]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Do you disagree that the earth is warming?

No; I disagree with the purported rate of warming and I am not yet persuaded the warming is driven by AGW as opposed to natural variability. 

Anyway, this thread was derailed a long time ago and apparently is the new climate change forum, so I thought I would chime in. 

[TJW014]

I come back from a 12 hour shift and we're still discussing this lol.

[coastalplainsnowman]

Seems like a good time to ask: how much for Philly?

 

(I wonder how many will get this reference lol)

[MJO812]

Interesting 

[snowman19]

6 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Interesting 

For who? New Foundland? Nova Scotia? 

[BxEngine]

Next one who asks for a moderator in here without reporting any offending posts has to venmo me the equivalent of a 15 hour overtime tour at my work, since apparently this must be our full time job here? Thanks in advance. 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Seems like a good time to ask: how much for Philly?

 

(I wonder how many will get this reference lol)

I'd love to know if anyone asked this before the Blizzard of 1996.... unfortunately these forums did not exist back then  

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, BoulderWX said:

Wtf did I just scroll through :| 

We discussed the origin and fate of the universe, mass extinctions, organic farming and climate change lol.  "Only in New York (subforum)" would you get such a diversity of discussion lol -- especially when the sun hasn't been out in about a week and there hasn't been any significant snow in over 2 years.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We discussed the origin and fate of the universe, mass extinctions, organic farming and climate change lol.  "Only in New York (subforum)" would you get such a diversity of discussion lol -- especially when the sun hasn't been out in about a week and there hasn't been any significant snow in over 2 years.

 

Yeah. What a brutal stretch. Right on the south shore it’s been even longer, 3 winters in a row now. I do have faith in the my original call made at the beginning of the winter that February will produce our first warning level event right to the coast however. It was based mostly on nino climo and the tendency of our winters to be backloaded.