wishcast_hater Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Yes and it took millions of years to go through those big climactic shifts whereas we are effecting change over a vastly shorter period of time. Does this really need to be explained? smhSorry, I don’t subscribe to this world view. I certainly don’t see the “mass extinction” that is taking place right now. I think humans will be just fine, not really worried about it. I just want a few good snowstorms and I realize that we are stuck in a pattern but it will eventually change and balance out. . 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: How long do you see the theorized "cold" period lasting if it does happen? Not more than 2 weeks starting from President's Day right? My guess would be if it the pattern does actually flip around President’s Day weekend, as is modeled, it lasts until the beginning of March. Do I think (hypothetically), if the can gets kicked down the road again and the post 2/15 pattern doesn’t work out we do a storybook flip to a historic March, 2018 or March, 1993 pattern? No. If past strong El Niños are any indiction of how early-mid March is going to go….nope 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: My guess would be if it the pattern does actually flip around President’s Day weekend, as is modeled, it lasts until the beginning of March. Do I think (hypothetically), if the can gets kicked down the road again and the post 2/15 pattern doesn’t work out we do a storybook flip to a historic March, 2018 or March, 1993 pattern? No. If past strong El Niños are any indiction of how early-mid March is going to go….nope Yes, I don't buy a snowy March either. I could see the cold lasting into the first week of March if it has already been well established in the second half of February, but if we have to wait until March to see cooler weather, it will just be cool and rainy, which we've already had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Sorry, I don’t subscribe to this world view. I certainly don’t see the “mass extinction” that is taking place right now. I think humans will be just fine, not really worried about it. I just want a few good snowstorms and I realize that we are stuck in a pattern but it will eventually change and balance out. . The thing about science is that it is true whether you "subscribe" to it or not. 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Sorry, I don’t subscribe to this world view. I certainly don’t see the “mass extinction” that is taking place right now. I think humans will be just fine, not really worried about it. I just want a few good snowstorms and I realize that we are stuck in a pattern but it will eventually change and balance out. . Mass extinction of other forms of life is most certainly happening and at a very rapid rate. We've already wiped out thousands of species. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: How long do you see this good period lasting? At least 2 weeks to maybe 4 weeks? I would say through the 10-15th. these patterns are usually quite stable once they form and are often broken by a bigger storm. Nino climo should take over during the second half of the month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: The thing about science is that it is true whether you "subscribe" to it or not. These are the same people who don't think there is anything wrong with pesticides, meanwhile they are circulating through our blood and killing off pollinators. And now we've found the carcinogen 1,4-dioxane in our drinking water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, LibertyBell said: Yes, I don't buy a snowy March either. I could see the cold lasting into the first week of March if it has already been well established in the second half of February, but if we have to wait until March to see cooler weather, it will just be cool and rainy, which we've already had. In the "great" March of 2018. my area only had one storm that delivered the goods; one was white rain, the next barely cracked 3 inches of slush, and the las tone finally, after like a whole day of waiting, delivered around 8 inches. March might have snows, but they are always a swan song.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Just now, weatherpruf said: In the "great" March of 2018. my area only had one storm that delivered the goods; one was white rain, the next barely cracked 3 inches of slush, and the las tone finally, after like a whole day of waiting, delivered around 8 inches. March might have snows, but they are always a swan song.... My favorite was actually the one that happened in early April, did you get anything from that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I would say through the 10-15th. these patterns are usually quite stable once they form and are often broken by a bigger storm. Nino climo should take over during the second half of the month Thanks I was figuring 7-10 days at the beginning of the month for that reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: These are the same people who don't think there is anything wrong with pesticides, meanwhile they are circulating through our blood and killing off pollinators. And now we've found the carcinogen 1,4-dioxane in our drinking water. Well I'm no big fan of pesticides, but we would have some massive crop failures without them. But you don't have to use chemical pesticides; there are alternatives. Have been for years. Could they be used on an industrial scale? My daughter, who is an entomologist, says it depends. Cockroaches were ubiquitous in NYC until Combat came out. They never developed resistance to it. So what are they doing now? Developing an aversion to sweet tastes....roaches are coming back..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: My favorite was actually the one that happened in early April, did you get anything from that? About 4 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: About 4 inches. Better than most March events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 25 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Well I'm no big fan of pesticides, but we would have some massive crop failures without them. But you don't have to use chemical pesticides; there are alternatives. Have been for years. Could they be used on an industrial scale? My daughter, who is an entomologist, says it depends. Cockroaches were ubiquitous in NYC until Combat came out. They never developed resistance to it. So what are they doing now? Developing an aversion to sweet tastes....roaches are coming back..... I blame these on the filthiness of humans (same with rats.) On Long Island, there are zero cockroaches, I have not seen a single cockroach in all the time I've been here. In Brooklyn they were all too common. Population density issues combined with humans dumping trash everywhere. I love the alternatives of laser pest killing either with drones automatically or by hand with tools that use concentrated beams of light to kill pests. I should say when I say pests I mean weeds. The UN (specifically a panel of scientists who researched this and wrote their conclusion for the UN) specifically has stated that we don't need chemical pesticides or chemical fertilizers, both of which destroy the soil in the long term and kill off essential pollinators (organic soil farming which retains nutrients better is much more sustainable and much better for the soil than applying chemicals to it to artificially maintain it.) And then when we have excessive rains, these chemicals run off either into water supply or into bodies of water where they result in toxic algae blooms and massive die offs of sea life too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 An encouraging sign to see is that it appears the pattern change is holding serve through time. This week, the pattern change has been indicated for around 2/13 or so, and so far, that look has held. Everything we’d want to see in a pattern change is there. Big spike in +PNA with a large western ridge, an eastern trough that is centered around Ohio River Valley and areas just eastward, heights building south of Greenland, and a funneling of cold air from the Hudson Bay Area (as indicated by blues extending from there down through the east coast). Does this mean that the pattern will produce? No. If anything, December 2022 taught us that, and for the NYC area, January 2024 just gave us a second lesson on that. But, it would be highly improbable that winter weather stays clear from the area during this pattern change. After all, 12/2022, and 1/2024 still had winter weather for our neighbors in this region, although NYC seems to be in a sort of a snow hole of sorts. In short, things are looking better for the area. Doesn’t mean they’ll produce, but with this pattern? It would be nearly impossible to see *nothing*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 42 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Sorry, I don’t subscribe to this world view. I certainly don’t see the “mass extinction” that is taking place right now. I think humans will be just fine, not really worried about it. I just want a few good snowstorms and I realize that we are stuck in a pattern but it will eventually change and balance out. . Yikes. There is no debate that a mass extinction is under way, particularly as the rain forests get destroyed. The oceans are also rapidly dying, especially the coral reefs which are absolutely decimated. the coral reefs are dying due to bleaching from marine heat waves around the world. This is not disputed by any body. Between the destruction of forests and the warming oceans, there is a mass extinction underway 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 25 minutes ago, psv88 said: Yikes. There is no debate that a mass extinction is under way, particularly as the rain forests get destroyed. The oceans are also rapidly dying, especially the coral reefs which are absolutely decimated. the coral reefs are dying due to bleaching from marine heat waves around the world. This is not disputed by any body. Between the destruction of forests and the warming oceans, there is a mass extinction underway Completely agreed and I would also add the mass death of pollinators (which we really need more than most people realize.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I blame these on the filthiness of humans (same with rats.) On Long Island, there are zero cockroaches, I have not seen a single cockroach in all the time I've been here. In Brooklyn they were all too common. Population density issues combined with humans dumping trash everywhere. I love the alternatives of laser pest killing either with drones automatically or by hand with tools that use concentrated beams of light to kill pests. I should say when I say pests I mean weeds. The UN (specifically a panel of scientists who researched this and wrote their conclusion for the UN) specifically has stated that we don't need chemical pesticides or chemical fertilizers, both of which destroy the soil in the long term and kill off essential pollinators (organic soil farming which retains nutrients better is much more sustainable and much better for the soil than applying chemicals to it to artificially maintain it.) And then when we have excessive rains, these chemicals run off either into water supply or into bodies of water where they result in toxic algae blooms and massive die offs of sea life too. Waiting for the moderator... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 5 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Waiting for the moderator... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 4 hours ago, LibertyBell said: How long do you see this upcoming good period lasting Chris? 2-4 weeks? Do you think it can actually hold on into the first half of March? Probably better to keep expectations in check until we get closer to the mid portion of February. The first half of the month will be near record levels of warmth for North America. So even if the 500 mb pattern shifts like the models are indicating, there won’t be an immediate cold air source available. So it may take time to get the pattern back closer to average temperature wise. Then we will have to see where the storm track sets up. But since we will be in mid to late February, just cold enough will work with the right storm track. 5 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Probably better to keep expectations in check until we get closer to the mid portion of February. The first half of the month will be near record levels of warmth for North America. So even if the 500 mb pattern shifts like the models are indicating, there won’t be an immediate cold air source available. So it may take time to get the pattern back closer to average temperature wise. Then we will have to see where the storm track sets up. But since we will be in mid to late February, just cold enough will work with the right storm track. Yes, I am thinking of the lag effect, the same kind we see between land and sea temperatures or between the shortest day of the year and the coldest temperatures, it takes awhile for the new pattern to set in. Do you see some kind of SSW aiding in the pattern change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evie3 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Completely agreed and I would also add the mass death of pollinators (which we really need more than most people realize.) Please excuse the slight OT but I thought this might be of interest. Israelis have developed AI technology that reduces herbicide and pesticide use massively: https://www.israel21c.org/reducing-herbicide-use-by-distinguishing-weeds-from-crops/ It's being tested out this upcoming growing season in the US: https://www.precisionfarmingdealer.com/articles/5349-greeneye-technology-and-fbn-announce-strategic-collaboration-and-investment Certainly hopeful. Thankfully when it comes to humans, past performance is not necessarily a guarantee of future (harmful) results. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Do you see some kind of SSW aiding in the pattern change? Fwiw, the 12Z GFS like the 6Z GFS, has at the very least close to a major SSW/10 mb wind reversal on Feb 16. Trends on the ensembles the last 5 days have markedly started trending in that direction after showing virtually no chance as recently as just 5 days ago. The ensembles have a history over the years of not even starting to see these all that well until just over two weeks out, which is similar to the the last few days of trends. Also, if there were to be an actual mid-Feb major SSW, the wind reversal date may creep forward a couple of days to say, ~Feb 14. If there were to be one, the typical response in the troposphere would start ~1-3 weeks afterward. However, the ensemble means are/have been suggesting independent of any mid-Feb SSW a major pattern change at 500 mb to start ~Feb 13 and likely continue for at least a couple of weeks. So, it might be difficult to discern any effects from a mid-Feb SSW. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 19 minutes ago, Evie3 said: Please excuse the slight OT but I thought this might be of interest. Israelis have developed AI technology that reduces herbicide and pesticide use massively: https://www.israel21c.org/reducing-herbicide-use-by-distinguishing-weeds-from-crops/ It's being tested out this upcoming growing season in the US: https://www.precisionfarmingdealer.com/articles/5349-greeneye-technology-and-fbn-announce-strategic-collaboration-and-investment Certainly hopeful. Thankfully when it comes to humans, past performance is not necessarily a guarantee of future (harmful) results. Thanks, technology gives us solutions to problems that seem to have none. I also love the development of laser tech to precisely target and fry these pests. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 The thing about science is that it is true whether you "subscribe" to it or not.It’s true until it changes. So that’s not truth, that’s just groupthink. Sorry. So many instances from the past demonstrating what was taught as truth is now revealed as “well, we got it wrong”. Science is a way of looking at things but it’s not infallible and I have seen too many times where $ affects the outcome. . 2 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 17 minutes ago, GaWx said: Fwiw, the 12Z GFS like the 6Z GFS, has at the very least very close to a major SSW/10 mb wind reversal on Feb 16. Trends on the ensembles the last 5 days have markedly started trending in that direction after showing virtually no chance as recently as just 5 days ago. The ensembles have a history over the years of not even starting to see these all that well until just over two weeks out, which is similar to the the last few days of trends. Also, if there were to be an actual mid-Feb major SSW, the wind reversal date may creep forward a couple of days to say, ~Feb 14. If there were to be one, the typical response in the troposphere would start ~1-3 weeks afterward. However, the ensemble means are/have been suggesting independent of any mid-Feb SSW a major pattern change at 500 mb to start ~Feb 13 and likely continue for at least a couple of weeks. So, it might be difficult to discern any effects from a mid-Feb SSW. Thanks Larry, I have a few questions regarding this combined influence. Is it possible that the combined additive effect of the SSW and the pattern change will create a pattern change that will last longer than it otherwise would if only one of the two occurred? Is it possible they will have a concurrent additive effect in that create a more extreme pattern change than would otherwise have occurred if only one of the two occurred? Obviously up here we don't want a March 2014 kind of scenario when the PV is in the northeast and suppresses the storms to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Thanks Larry, I have a few questions regarding this combined influence. Is it possible that the combined additive effect of the SSW and the pattern change will create a pattern change that will last longer than it otherwise would if only one of the two occurred? Is it possible they will have a concurrent additive effect in that create a more extreme pattern change than would otherwise have occurred if only one of the two occurred? Obviously up here we don't want a March 2014 kind of scenario when the PV is in the northeast and suppresses the storms to our south. YW. I could see it (if it occurs) possibly helping to allow this pattern change to maintain itself for a longer period into March. I don't have any feel for the idea of a more extreme change due to this. For mid-Feb I'd say no because of the lag. Could it intensify in late Feb/early March because of it? I suppose that's possible but I'd think it would be hard to prove. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 29 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: It’s true until it changes. So that’s not truth, that’s just groupthink. Sorry. So many instances from the past demonstrating what was taught as truth is now revealed as “well, we got it wrong”. Science is a way of looking at things but it’s not infallible and I have seen too many times where $ affects the outcome. . The laws of physics aren’t influenced by money. Also, you are nowhere close to being equipped or knowledgeable enough to be the arbiter of what is or isn’t groupthink with respect to the science of global warming. You don’t even appear to comprehend the difference between natural climate variation and human warming as a consequence of CO2 pollution. You think they’re somehow conflated as if one disproves the other. That’s just basic level misinformation and lack of comprehension. To the level it’s not even worth having a discussion with you. Honestly it’s growing increasingly frustrating having these threads clogged by takes that are astonishingly misguided and ignorant, so forgive my tone. The reason I get so irked over it is because in my experience people with your positions and temperament have no interest in learning or in the acquisition of knowledge to support a better argument. You’re looking to spread an agenda based on a preconceived notion. That, if anything, has no place within the realm of scientific discussion. 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said: It’s true until it changes. So that’s not truth, that’s just groupthink. Sorry. So many instances from the past demonstrating what was taught as truth is now revealed as “well, we got it wrong”. Science is a way of looking at things but it’s not infallible and I have seen too many times where $ affects the outcome. . The beauty of science is that it is evidence-based. It is also flexible to evidence-based changes in understanding. There is no constraint that any idea or theory is so important that it must be preserved regardless of the evidence. Such rigidity is counterproductive. Of course, evidence needs to be sufficient and credible to result in changes in understanding. Having said that, many understandings are unlikely to be overturned, even as further refinements are possible. Theories related to the Big Bang, General Relativity, Evolution, etc. are among those that will likely stand the test of time. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The beauty of science is that it is evidence-based. It is also flexible to evidence-based changes in understanding. There is no constraint that any idea or theory is so important that it must be preserved regardless of the evidence. Such rigidity is counterproductive. Of course, evidence needs to be sufficient and credible to result in changes in understanding. Having said that, many understandings are unlikely to be overturned, even is further refinements are possible. Theories related to the Big Bang, General Relativity, Evolution, etc. are among those that will likely stand the test of time. Big Bang and Relativity will likely require modification when Quantum Gravity is worked out (Big Bang will likely be modified into Big Bounce for example and Quantum Gravity will also do away with singularities, which is a sign that a theory has reached its limit figuratively and literally lol), but modification maintains most of the original theory and adds necessary extensions to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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