NEG NAO Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup, we might waste 3 weeks without a threat currently. the models are having a difficult time handling this pattern - expect changes over the next few days IMO all other data points to colder and snowy by mid month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 9 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: The forecast 24 hours before the blizzard of '78 was for a foot or more. It was an LFM success That was a success however the 1/19/78 event that brought 12-18” across the area was a huge bust to the upside. Forecasts up to the night before were mainly calling for a change to rain after 2-4/3-6”. The first hints that I received that this would be bigger was at 10:00 PM the previous night when WCBS 880 was speaking of trucker reports of a wall of snow on the Jersey Tpke at Hightstown with dangerous conditions south of there. I woke up to 14” inches the next morning before it began to mix with sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: We did much better in March during the 2010s than the 2020s so far. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mar Season Mean 0.1 0.1 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mar Season Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T March is an odd Month statistically. 2000s seemed to rarely snow in March while the 90s and 2010s seemed fairly snowy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: March is an odd Month statistically. 2000s seemed to rarely snow in March while the 90s and 2010s seemed fairly snowy. Our only spring record snowfall in the 2020s so far happened in May. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 44 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our only spring record snowfall in the 2020s so far happened in May. April 2018 was very good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: March ? We have been getting more snow in March then in December. Our best indication on whether the winter will be snowy is if it snows in December. If it doesn't snow much in December, consider it at least 80% odds the rest of winter will suck too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: March ? We have been getting more snow in March then in December. That's because most of our winters have sucked in the last few years anyway. There's very few good winters when it doesn't snow in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: I have been around here since 1955 except winter 83-84 through 1995-1996 in Northern Ocean County and I have seen just about every kind of good stretch and bad stretch of winters so nothing surprises me anymore....... you missed 1995-96? wow you missed our best winter by a wide margin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, NEG NAO said: this NINO is going to come crashing down in March and be replaced with NINA by spring - so will not be your typical March weather..........expect anything and everything IMO the chances of next winter being a lot better are higher than March of this year being good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, bluewave said: We did much better in March during the 2010s than the 2020s so far. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mar Season Mean 0.1 0.1 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mar Season Mean 6.0 6.0 2019 10.4 10.4 2018 11.6 11.6 2017 9.7 9.7 2016 0.9 0.9 2015 18.6 18.6 2014 0.1 0.1 2013 7.3 7.3 2012 0.0 0.0 2011 1.0 1.0 2010 T T We need snowy Decembers more than we need snowy Marches Chris. Most of our snowy winters started with a snowy December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We need snowy Decembers more than we need snowy Marches Chris. Most of our snowy winters started with a snowy December. I'll take a snowy December over a snowy March... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 "Day after day, day after day, We stuck. No cold. No snow..." --Adapted from English poet Samuel Taylor Coleridge's "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner" Today, New York City and Newark have reached their 731st consecutive day on which there has been less than 2" daily snowfall. Following on the heels of New York City's least snowy winter on record, Winter 2023-2024 will record just 2.3" of snow through January. Prospects for a moderate or greater snowstorm remain bleak through at least the first week of February and beyond into the thick fog of low model skill. Below are some tables showing how New York City's snow season has fared after January, after February 15th, and after February. Comparisons are made between select season-to-date snowfall amounts and historic climatology (all cases). If New York City cannot muster 6" or more seasonal snowfall by the end of February, the City will be looking at a distinct possibility of recording its first case of two consecutive snow seasons with less than 10" of total snowfall. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: We need snowy Decembers more than we need snowy Marches Chris. Most of our snowy winters started with a snowy December. The 15-16 winter was the real outlier for Decembers with a T or less of snow in NYC since 1950. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Seasonal Snowfall 2011 0.0 7.4 - 2006 0.0 12.4 2023 T 2.3…so far - 2022 T 2.3 - 2018 T 20.5 - 2015 T 32.8 - 2001 T 3.5 - 1999 T 16.3 - 1997 T 5.5 - 1996 T 10.0 - 1994 T 11.8 - 1972 T 2.8 - 1971 T 22.9 - 1965 T 21.4 - 1953 T 15.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 15-16 winter was the real outlier for Decembers with a T or less of snow during December in NYC since 1950. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Seasonal Snowfall 2011 0.0 7.4 - 2006 0.0 12.4 2023 T 2.3…so far - 2022 T 2.3 - 2018 T 20.5 - 2015 T 32.8 - 2001 T 3.5 - 1999 T 16.3 - 1997 T 5.5 - 1996 T 10.0 - 1994 T 11.8 - 1972 T 2.8 - 1971 T 22.9 - 1965 T 21.4 - 1953 T 15.8 One lucky storm in 15-16. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 This second wave of warming aloft should result in cold air outbreaks across much of the US during the middle and latter parts of February. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, ag3 said: One lucky storm in 15-16. Yup. Extremely overrated winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 8 minutes ago, ag3 said: One lucky storm in 15-16. it wasn't lucky. the pattern before that storm was a classic KU preloading pattern 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 15-16 winter was the real outlier for Decembers with a T or less of snow in NYC since 1950. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Seasonal Snowfall 2011 0.0 7.4 - 2006 0.0 12.4 2023 T 2.3…so far - 2022 T 2.3 - 2018 T 20.5 - 2015 T 32.8 - 2001 T 3.5 - 1999 T 16.3 - 1997 T 5.5 - 1996 T 10.0 - 1994 T 11.8 - 1972 T 2.8 - 1971 T 22.9 - 1965 T 21.4 - 1953 T 15.8 Yes 2015-16 was amazing in this respect to have a come back like it did. That below zero low on Valentines Day was amazing too, you don't ever see a below zero low after that kind of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 3 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Thanks - I qualified my timeframe for the 12" forecast point to 1980-1993 because of 1978 - as I recall anecdotally that one caught LI by surprise to some degree too tho right? I just remember from what my father said after coming home after being snowbound in NYC. Were some models were calling for it but the forecasts on TV/radio were lower than that? For 1980-1993 do I have that right? The January 19-20 (17") snowstorm in 1978 was a surprise. The overnight forecast was for an inch or two of snow changing to rain and we woke up the next morning to a raging blizzard. The February 6 blizzard was talked about days in advance. I remember that I brought a portable radio to my indoor track meet on Saturday (2 days before the storm) so that I could get forecast updates during the day. Like most here, I've been at this since I was a kid. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it wasn't lucky. the pattern before that storm occurred was a classic KU preloading pattern and there were other storms after that which came close to clobbering NYC including the one in February that buried Long Island in a foot plus of snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 10 minutes ago, ag3 said: One lucky storm in 15-16. We got a nice follow up storm to the east of NYC in early February pushing us up to around 40”. It gave JFK its first 40/40 winter. Data for October 1, 2015 through April 30, 2016Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY MIDDLE VILLAGE 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 42.2 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 41.4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 41.4 NY CENTERPORT COOP 41.0 NY FLORAL PARK 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 40.9 Data for December 1, 2015 through February 28, 2016Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature CT GROTON COOP 41.7 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 41.6 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 40.9 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40.8 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 40.4 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 40.3 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 40.2 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 40.0 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 Just now, bluewave said: We got a nice follow up storm to the east of NYC in early February pushing us up to around 40”. It gave JFK its first 40/40 winter. Data for October 1, 2015 through April 30, 2016Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY MIDDLE VILLAGE 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 42.2 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 41.4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 41.4 NY CENTERPORT COOP 41.0 NY FLORAL PARK 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 40.9 Data for October 1, 2015 through April 30, 2016Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY MIDDLE VILLAGE 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 42.2 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 41.4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 41.4 NY CENTERPORT COOP 41.0 NY FLORAL PARK 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 40.9 That was the one that caused the crane to fall in Manhattan that killed someone wasn't it, Chris? And it's why we had snow on the ground for the Superbowl that year. I seem to remember there was another one that February too. Parts of Long Island received 50 inches of snow that season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: This second wave of warming aloft should result in cold air outbreaks across much of the US during the middle and latter parts of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 15-16 winter was the real outlier for Decembers with a T or less of snow in NYC since 1950. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Seasonal Snowfall 2011 0.0 7.4 - 2006 0.0 12.4 2023 T 2.3…so far - 2022 T 2.3 - 2018 T 20.5 - 2015 T 32.8 - 2001 T 3.5 - 1999 T 16.3 - 1997 T 5.5 - 1996 T 10.0 - 1994 T 11.8 - 1972 T 2.8 - 1971 T 22.9 - 1965 T 21.4 - 1953 T 15.8 Seems like the inverse of March from a decadal perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krs4Lfe Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 10 minutes ago, uofmiami said: It appears that could display cold air downwards from where it's being bottle up right now (Alaska, as they're having a record good winter for those parts.) Now, I don't believe it would necessarily lead to most of us posters reaching average snowfall for this winter, it can definitely lead to increased storminess. Those oranges showing up near south Greenland indicate there might be some north atlantic blocking as well, which could finally slow down our storms (our storms have been pretty quick moving this winter). Those reds showing up over east Asia and Russia would definitely displace cold temperatures. It looks like that cold air will be displaced over Europe (as displayed by the blues over the continent), but there's a chance some of that from the arctic sneaks down onto CONUS as well. Only potential issue with this is that it could take a little while for the cold air to bleed east, as indicated by the blues in the west, but a still present Southeast ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 48 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: This second wave of warming aloft should result in cold air outbreaks across much of the US during the middle and latter parts of February. Unless of course a pacific jet keeps steering warm air into Canada? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: There were 0 10" snowstorms after February 1983 and before March 1993. That was a 10 year and 1 month period with no double digit snowstorms! 1/22/1987 11.3" (LGA) 1/26/1987 11" Bridgehampton 2/23/1987 10" Patchogue 1/8/1988 10.5" Patchogue (JFK - 9.6") 12/13/1988 10 - 15" (C-E LI) 11/23/1989 10" Bridgehampton 2/25/1990 13" Bridgehampton 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 For entertainment purposes ONLY now ! BUT you get the idea ! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 That’s the event I’m craving, a nice coastal northeast nuke. 6-10 would do nicely if something like that were in the cards. Doesn’t have to be a HECS. Let’s just get a nice broad untainted hit. Would be fun to track and then experience, and lift a lot of spirits. Hopefully something like that is plausibly in the pipeline for that mid - late month window. Would be yet another waste of a pattern and ultimately a waste of the Niño if not. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 30 Share Posted January 30 1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said: 1/22/1987 11.3" (LGA) 1/26/1987 11" Bridgehampton 2/23/1987 10" Patchogue 1/8/1988 10.5" Patchogue (JFK - 9.6") 12/13/1988 10 - 15" (C-E LI) 11/23/1989 10" Bridgehampton 2/25/1990 13" Bridgehampton I take it neither Central Park not JFK got 10" in that 1/1987 event. 1/1988 I don't remember at all, did Central Park get less than JFK did? All those winters were pretty nondescript here, I guess it shows how different the climate is on eastern Long Island vs western Long Island. 89-90 is considered one of the worst winters here and the Hamptons had 2 footers lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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