donsutherland1 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 FYI: The amount of frigid winter air is near a record low, and shrinking An analysis reveals this winter has had the second-smallest pool of cold air on record above the Northern Hemisphere, a clear sign of climate change. https://wapo.st/3Igzr59 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 11 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: FYI: The amount of frigid winter air is near a record low, and shrinking An analysis reveals this winter has had the second-smallest pool of cold air on record above the Northern Hemisphere, a clear sign of climate change. https://wapo.st/3Igzr59 what was the smallest Don? one thing I want to understand is how is this winter is supposedly colder than last winter when we had two extreme single digit arctic shots last winter and this winter is setting all sorts of high min records? see this is why I dont trust average temperatures, this winter has been tangibly warmer than last winter, regardless of what the so-called "averages" say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 3 hours ago, bluewave said: We could have used these dewpoints in the single digits ahead of some our winter storms. East Hampton MOSUNNY 33 3 How does the dewpoint get so low when they are surrounded by water on all sides lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: what was the smallest Don? one thing I want to understand is how is this winter is supposedly colder than last winter when we had two extreme single digit arctic shots last winter and this winter is setting all sorts of high min records? see this is why I dont trust average temperatures, this winter has been tangibly warmer than last winter, regardless of what the so-called "averages" say. 2014-15. However, the small area of extreme cold was locked over the Northeast leading to a freezing of water bodies, including much of the Long Island Sound during a severely cold February. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: what was the smallest Don? one thing I want to understand is how is this winter is supposedly colder than last winter when we had two extreme single digit arctic shots last winter and this winter is setting all sorts of high min records? see this is why I dont trust average temperatures, this winter has been tangibly warmer than last winter, regardless of what the so-called "averages" say. Weird. Looks like that's limited to immediate coastal locations. Most of the northeast, and fact much of the country east of the Mississippi (at least at similar latitudes), was warmer this winter. Even as close inland as places like Scranton, Williamsport, and Albany: Albany, NY Williamsport, PA Scranton, PA Nearby Poughkeepsie, New York is tied with last winter: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Despite a transient cold shot to end the month, February finished with a mean temperature of 40.1° (4.2° above normal) in New York City. That tied 1954 and 2020 for the 9th warmest February on record. Winter 2023-2024 finished with a mean temperature of 40.6° in New York City. That was New York City's fourth warmest winter on record. For the first time since records began in 1869, New York City had two consecutive winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Parts of the United States concluded their warmest winter on record. Records were set in such cities as Albany, Burlington, Fargo, Milwaukee, and Minneapolis. Fargo smashed its winter record from 2015-2016 by 4.4°. Minneapolis registered 18 days during which the high temperature reached 50° or above. The old record was 8 days in Winter 1980-1981. Tonight will be another chilly but not severely cold night. The chill will disappear during the afternoon as readings soar into the 40s in New York City and possibly 50° in Philadelphia. Afterward, March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time. Overall, March will likely be warmer to much warmer than normal. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring. The SOI was +1.10 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.742 today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Good chance that tonight will be our last night well down into the 20s until next fall/winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 11 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said: Don, are you able to provide those sea ice extents like you used to in past years? Just wondering if we are near that death spiral we were in a decade or so ago. There’s a climate change sub forum with a thread on sea ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, Fresh cold air said: Don, are you able to provide those sea ice extents like you used to in past years? Just wondering if we are near that death spiral we were in a decade or so ago. Extent is 15th. Volume is below: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 While New York City experienced its fourth warmest winter on record, numerous locations saw their warmest winter on record. Some of those locations are below: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 3 hours ago, Fresh cold air said: There is no doubt about your illustration here but does that mean it is gone forever? I need to see it for a longer time frame. If every winter for the rest of this decade continues to be warmer than the last, that would get my attention. Then the question becomes is it mother nature or our suv's? *tens of millions of SUVs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 3 hours ago, Fresh cold air said: There is no doubt about your illustration here but does that mean it is gone forever? I need to see it for a longer time frame. If every winter for the rest of this decade continues to be warmer than the last, that would get my attention. Then the question becomes is it mother nature or our suv's? There are currently 330 MILLION suvs in the world. They crank out a ton of CO2. https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6792349 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 1 hour ago, psv88 said: There are currently 330 MILLION suvs in the world. They crank out a ton of CO2. https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.6792349 I love my SUV. 6 cylinder hybrid that gets awful gas mileage even with the $10000 hybrid sticker on the back. I wouldn’t give it up for a decimal point data change 50 years from now. And there are a lot of people just like me. actually, most people are like me. That’s the problem Enjoy November in January. nothing is going to change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 Historic pattern of winter warmth since the +13.3 December 2015 continues. This makes it a first 9 warmer to record warm winters in a row. It included 21 out of the last 27 winter months finishing warmer than average. NYC Feb 24…+4.2 Jan 24..+3.3 Dec 23..+5.5 …………..+4.3 Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0 Feb 21….-1.7 Jan 21….+1.1 Dec 20…+1.7 …………..+0.4 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 …………….+4.0 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 …………….+1.1 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 …………….+1.1 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 …………….+4.2 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 …………….+5.9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 15 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Extent is 15th. Volume is below: It looks like the last 10 years have been fairly constant. Could be a blip, time will tell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted March 1 Share Posted March 1 3 hours ago, Fresh cold air said: Anyone that denies this is blind or in denial. The question that I still have is that does seeing this kind of extreme for a decade mean that it is forever. I am not ready to declare that we cant return to some of the legendary winters of the distant past. I know there are wildcards like a major volcanic eruption or even more substantial things like a shutdown of the atlantic current, etc but I am wondering if, whatever driver becomes responsible for it, we can return back to yesterday's climate. Do we hit a peak and then start the decline downward for an extended time? I truly believe there are still so many unknowns as to what will happen in the long term but as we currently stand, there is no way to deny what is presently occurring. I think it all starts with cooling the oceans down! The vast majority of this board wont be around by 2100 to see where we are at the turn of the century. I know I ll be long gone lol! I'll be gone, but most pundits are predicting doom by 2050. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 2 Share Posted March 2 Toronto (downtown location 1840-2024) also recorded its warmest February (+1.5 C) edging out 1998, and the Central England Temperature (CET) series recorded second warmest 7.8 C just below record of 7.9 (1779). This data set runs 1659 to present. CET also recorded warmest Feb daily mean of 13.7 C. (15 Feb, broke record 12.8 set 4 Feb 2004) as well as a new record warmest daily min in Feb (11.1 C). Feb 2019 retains records for warmest daily max. It was also tied warmest winter season at Toronto (+1.30) tied 2001-02. CET winter was tied 4th warmest (6.5 C) as January was close to average (Dec 2023 mild). Winters warmer are 2015-16 (6.8 C), 1868-69 (6.7 C) and 1833-34 (6.6 C). 2023-24 tied 1988-89 and 2006-07. http://metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/meantemp_ranked_seasonal.txt Another new CET record was warmest 31d interval all 31 days within Jan-Feb, set 21 or 22 Jan to 20 or 21 Feb (8.3 C) ... previous record was 8.0 C set 14 Jan to 13 Feb 2002. The warmest January (calendar) for CET is 7.6 (1916). Their warmest Dec is also 2015 (9.6 C). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 On March 2 attached the Feb verification to p1. Looks like our local take verified OK with the mid month chilling, and twice the Jan paltry snow total at CP. and the CPC trend to below normal qpf also worked out best with east coast events trailing off the coast south of our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 2 Author Share Posted March 2 One final note on all this: I guess the deniers are not too happy with James Hanson in 1988... see below. Also fwiw: I've seen documentation that the areal coverage of -5C in winter is the 4th or 5th smallest in the past 79 years and that extreme cold is losing the battle by a huge margin to extreme warmth in recent years. Carry on with threads as best you view... Here's a sample about and from James Hanson 1988. The world is shifting towards a superheated climate not seen in the past 1m years, prior to human existence, because “we are damned fools” for not acting upon warnings over the climate crisis, according to James Hansen, the US scientist who alerted the world to the greenhouse effect in the 1980s. Hansen, whose testimony to the US Senate in 1988 is cited as the first high-profile revelation of global heating, warned in a statement with two other scientists that the world was moving towards a “new climate frontier” with temperatures higher than at any point over the past million years, bringing impacts such as stronger storms, heatwaves and droughts. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 Hansen’s “Gobal Warming in the Pipeline” from this fall is a must read, IMO: https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/3/1/kgad008/7335889 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 3 Share Posted March 3 On 2/25/2024 at 7:57 AM, donsutherland1 said: Week ahead numbers: The February 26-March 3, 2024 period was warm and wet from Washington, DC to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted March 4 Share Posted March 4 12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: The February 26-March 3, 2024 period was warm and wet from Washington, DC to Boston. But today was the best day, every day should be just like today was, Don. It was the perfect day, every day in spring should be like this! No allergies, no winds, low humidity and clear blue skies from horizon to horizon! If we ever start regulating weather, it should be like this 6 days out of 7. Let it rain on each 7th day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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