February 2024

[Dan76]

Not much Rain 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

Mineola had 52 days reach 90° in 2010.

 

Data for January 1, 2010 through December 31, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

State	Name	Station Type	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	59
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	54
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	52
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	51
NJ	HARRISON	COOP	50
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	48
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	46
NY	BRONX	COOP	45
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	COOP	41
NJ	TETERBORO AIRPORT	WBAN	40
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	37
CT	DANBURY	COOP	37
NY	WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK	COOP	35
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	34
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	33
NY	JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	32
NJ	CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP	WBAN	31

This is absolutely amazing,thanks so much Chris, it looks like Mineola is neck and neck with Newark in most summers!  Does Mineola data go back to the early 90s and if so, was that their previous summer of record in terms of 90 and 100 degree days?

It's amazing to get 52 days over 90 and 6 days over 100 Long Island has so many fascinating microclimates!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Mean temperature is the superior measure IMO. Number of 90 and 100 degree days can be influenced by drought. They claim July 1936 is hottest month on record in U.S., although I'm a little skeptical of that. It doesn't seem very hot compared to recent Julys in the Great Lakes or Northeast. In fact, outside of a 7-day period, the other 24 days at most locations would be bona fide summer of yesteryear territory.

But even in Des Moines, where it's hottest on record. If you look at the humidity levels that summer [lowest on record], the heat indices would have been around the air temperature or lower most days. So a lot of those days - 106F, 108F - you have a 103F or 105F heat index. Yet Des Moines gets dewpoints in the upper 70s and 80s every year now, with heat indices into the 110s [even 120F]. So I would argue the combination of heat and humidity that we regularly see today is more deadly than even the worst heat waves of the Dust Bowl. Most of the country would be uninhabitable today without AC. This isn't reflected in the data, particularly if you only looked at the temperatures.

Higher humidity levels are also influenced by farming practices.  What I've read about the midwest is that the evapotranspiration rates are much higher now because of so many of these large fields full of corn, it was documented to have a large impact in very extreme summers like the summer of 1995.

Around here you need a westerly wind to hit triple digits, the ocean influence is too much with southerly and even southwesterly winds.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Mean temperature is the superior measure IMO. Number of 90 and 100 degree days can be influenced by drought. They claim July 1936 is hottest month on record in U.S., although I'm a little skeptical of that. It doesn't seem very hot compared to recent Julys in the Great Lakes or Northeast. In fact, outside of a 7-day period, the other 24 days at most locations would be bona fide summer of yesteryear territory.

But even in Des Moines, where it's hottest on record. If you look at the humidity levels that summer [lowest on record], the heat indices would have been around the air temperature or lower most days. So a lot of those days - 106F, 108F - you have a 103F or 105F heat index. Yet Des Moines gets dewpoints in the upper 70s and 80s every year now, with heat indices into the 110s [even 120F]. So I would argue the combination of heat and humidity that we regularly see today is more deadly than even the worst heat waves of the Dust Bowl. Most of the country would be uninhabitable today without AC. This isn't reflected in the data, particularly if you only looked at the temperatures.

The problem with mean temperature is it also includes high minimums which are much more an indication of humidity rather than actual heat.

[LibertyBell]

The people who mentioned the danger of wildfires happening again this year are correct, we already have our first smoke in the air, there are widespread wildfires in Texas right now (no surprise with temperatures in the 90s) and a state of emergency there and the smoke from there is making its way up here now.

 

 

[Roger Smith]

Context for today's possible near-record warm temperatures: 

Record max for NYC (Feb 28) is 67F (1976). It was 56F in 1878 and 1880, 62F in 1903, before eventual record in 1976. The record high min of 47F was set in 1903, 1910 and 2017.

If warm temperatures continue past midnight: 

Record max for NYC (Feb 29) is 69F (1880). Since then, 66F (1976) and 61F (2016). 

 

[Roger Smith]

Cold front looking very powerful, strong tornado outbreak in southern michigan overnight ... fronts will arrive in NYC region around 8 pm with second fropa around 11 p to midnight, I am surprised there isn't a thread started for this event as well as sharp temperature falls overnight into Thursday, could see 60s to 20s and 15-20 F in far nw portions of forum? Not much if any temperature recovery during a sunny leap year day. Upstate NY, parts of PA, s ON wind damage followed by heavy snow squalls and a drop from near 70F into teens or even single digits.  

Reminds one of that temperature drop on Dec 23, 2022 (58 to 8 F). Not sure if cold front will beat midnight to remove some of the potential from Feb 29 being the largest drop possible in a calendar day (in this situation), will be so in eastern New England and possibly Long Island. 

It's going to be ugly when this surge of warm air gets over the 30-40 inch snowpack in eastern Nova Scotia. 

[bluewave]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

This is absolutely amazing,thanks so much Chris, it looks like Mineola is neck and neck with Newark in most summers!  Does Mineola data go back to the early 90s and if so, was that their previous summer of record in terms of 90 and 100 degree days?

It's amazing to get 52 days over 90 and 6 days over 100 Long Island has so many fascinating microclimates!

 

 

The Mineola COOP was active from 1938 to 2010. The guy who maintained the observations for all those years was the president of the Long Island Weather Observers. 2010 was the only year with over 50 days due to the unusual amount of heat combined with westerly flow. 
 

Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Mar 1 to Sep 30	Missing Count
1	2010-09-30	52	0
2	1988-09-30	34	0
3	2002-09-30	33	0
4	2005-09-30	32	1
5	1999-09-30	27	6
-	1991-09-30	27	0

https://www.nytimes.com/1990/01/07/nyregion/cold-snap-tests-service-agencies.html

The average temperature on the Island in December was 25.9 degrees, 10.3 degrees below normal and the third coldest on record, according to Steve Thomas, a National Weather Service meteorologist for the New York region.

The coldest December on record occurred in 1876, when temperatures averaged 24.9 degrees; the most recent record was 1976, when temperatures averaged 29.9 degrees.

In Mineola, temperatures hit a low of 6 degrees on Dec. 23, according to Ed Lynt, president of the Long Island Weather Observers, a volunteer organization that provides data for the New York Regional Office of the National Weather Service and to local radio and television stations.

[MANDA]

Rainfall last 24 hours .66".

Snow gone except for plowed mounds.

[wdrag]

Just in case you may be looking to me for a thread, start threads as you see best including background support.  I'll add a Feb wrap, late March 1 or 2.

 

[bluewave]

One of the strongest leap day cold fronts on record with 50+ mph gusts and heavy convection to possible snow squalls. Temps will quickly fall from the 60s to 20s. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Mineola COOP was active from 1938 to 2010. The guy who maintained the observations for all those years was the president of the Long Island Weather Observers. 2010 was the only year with over 50 days due to the unusual amount of heat combined with westerly flow. 
 

Time Series Summary for MINEOLA, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Mar 1 to Sep 30	Missing Count
1	2010-09-30	52	0
2	1988-09-30	34	0
3	2002-09-30	33	0
4	2005-09-30	32	1
5	1999-09-30	27	6
-	1991-09-30	27	0

https://www.nytimes.com/1990/01/07/nyregion/cold-snap-tests-service-agencies.html

The average temperature on the Island in December was 25.9 degrees, 10.3 degrees below normal and the third coldest on record, according to Steve Thomas, a National Weather Service meteorologist for the New York region.

The coldest December on record occurred in 1876, when temperatures averaged 24.9 degrees; the most recent record was 1976, when temperatures averaged 29.9 degrees.

In Mineola, temperatures hit a low of 6 degrees on Dec. 23, according to Ed Lynt, president of the Long Island Weather Observers, a volunteer organization that provides data for the New York Regional Office of the National Weather Service and to local radio and television stations.

Wow this is absolutely amazing, Chris, thanks for all this info!  They must have been in operation in 2011 because they have the highest temp on record (108) from that year?  Did they shut down after 2011?

 

I remember December 1989 very well, it was colder than many Januarys but mostly snowless.  I take it Mineola's below zero history is close to JFK's?  Nowhere near as extreme as KFOK?

[Stormlover74]

Chipmunks are out in full force today

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Chipmunks are out in full force today

Say hi to Alvin for me

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Say hi to Alvin for me

Feeling good about the Mets this year?

[the_other_guy]

It is amazing that Im reading about wild fire smoke and tornados in Illinois in February!

 

And you guys are looking for snow in NYC in march. Like the Jets building a case for the Lombardi Trophy haha

[the_other_guy]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Feeling good about the Mets this year?

No way. Maybe a sleeper team. But dont have high expectations

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Feeling good about the Mets this year?

No

[Dan76]

46 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Feeling good about the Mets this year?

Last year they were 92 1/2 this year around 82 1/2 so I guess not.

[psv88]

44 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

No way. Maybe a sleeper team. But dont have high expectations

 

22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No

 

1 minute ago, Dan76 said:

Last year they were 92 1/2 this year around 82 1/2 so I guess not.

Agreed. Senga definitely out for the year. What can you do. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

 

 

Agreed. Senga definitely out for the year. What can you do. 

We are screwed if Senga is out for the year. Obviously having an ace at the top of the rotation is critical. Right now the hope is that he'll only miss the first month of the season, since it's a moderate strain. But you always have to worry about shoulder issues with pitchers, so who knows. Hopefully he won't have any setbacks as he's working his way back. 

If Senga only misses a month and pitches great the rest of the season, I think the Mets can compete for a playoff spot since having Diaz back at closer is a big boost. Of course that's a big IF though. Definitely worried about Senga. 

[Santa Claus]

cloudy, rain, and 50s starting friday night

dampmaxxing is so back rain enjoyers LFGGGGGG

[the_other_guy]

not nearly as warm today as forecasted.

Continues the trend of the winter of the warmest departures being over the Midwest.

 

Low 50s all day

[winterwx21]

34 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

not nearly as warm today as forecasted.

Continues the trend of the winter of the warmest departures being over the Midwest

It still hit 61 here today, but yeah not as warm as forecast due to the rain. Yesterday ended up being the warmer day thanks to more sunshine. It hit 65 here yesterday. 

[Roger Smith]

Developing squall line not intense at moment, runs Utica-Binghamton-wCXY. Will be near PA-NJ border by 7-8 pm and NYC around 9 pm.

There may be an arctic front about an hour behind it then temps will really begin to fall fast. 

Possible gusts to 55 mph but 35-45 more probable for most. 

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

We are screwed if Senga is out for the year. Obviously having an ace at the top of the rotation is critical. Right now the hope is that he'll only miss the first month of the season, since it's a moderate strain. But you always have to worry about shoulder issues with pitchers, so who knows. Hopefully he won't have any setbacks as he's working his way back. 

If Senga only misses a month and pitches great the rest of the season, I think the Mets can compete for a playoff spot since having Diaz back at closer is a big boost. Of course that's a big IF though. Definitely worried about Senga. 

Before he even threw a pitch off the mound?  I say there was something wrong at the end of last year, which the team ignored and figured it would go away before next season?  Perhaps even if the Mets signed Snell and Montgomery, it wouldn't have mattered?

[Stormlover74]

36 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Developing squall line not intense at moment, runs Utica-Binghamton-wCXY. Will be near PA-NJ border by 7-8 pm and NYC around 9 pm.

There may be an arctic front about an hour behind it then temps will really begin to fall fast. 

Possible gusts to 55 mph but 35-45 more probable for most. 

Looks rather unimpressive unless it's in that eastern PA radar dead zone

[donsutherland1]

A cold front will sweep across the region during the first half of tonight. The frontal passage will touch off some heavy showers, perhaps a thundershower, and strong winds. Afterward, the temperature will tumble through the 40s and into the 30s in New York City and 20s outside the City.

Already, some large drops in temperature have occurred today. At Noon, it was 45° in Val d'Or, Quebec. The current temperature was -4°. At Noon, the temperature stood at 64° in Buffalo. The current temperature was 27°. At 5 pm, the temperature was 58° in Binghamton. The current temperature was 35°.

As impressive as the arrival of the cold air will be, it will quickly depart. Temperatures will already be rebounding on the opening day of March. Afterward, March will likely see generally unseasonable warmth through the first 7-10 days of the month. No significant snowfall appears likely in the northern Middle Atlantic region during that time. Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around February 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.92°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.65°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade during March. Neutral conditions could develop during the spring.

The SOI was +14.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.252 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 40.0° (4.1° above normal).

Winter 2023-2024 is on course to finish with a seasonal mean temperature of 40.5°. That would tie Winter 2011-2012 as the fourth warmest winter on record. It would also mark the second time when two consecutive winters have ranked among the top ten in terms of warmth. Winters 2015-2016 and 2016-2017 are currently the only two such winters to rank among the ten warmest on record. Winters 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 will become the first time on record that New York City has seen two consecutive winters with 40.0° or above mean temperatures. Since 1869, there have been six prior winters with a mean temperature of 40.0° or above. Five have occurred since 2000.

 

[FPizz]

Had a 48 mph gust recorded on my station about 15 min ago 

[the_other_guy]

Squall Line just went thru. Reading a book in shorts on couch listening to the downpour I had to remind myself it is 2/28